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BRAVEONAWARPATH

By BRAVEONAWARPATH
in The Tailgate

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Going Commando

Going Commando

Posted
Posted

I'm really thinking we should have gotten Noel or at least Lin at the number 3 pick. Especially with Oak gone and nobody else developing at 4 or 5. Aah well.

We didn't know Oak would be injured at the time.

I don't think Noel would have been the right pick for us. For one thing, he's actually the one who is unlikely to play this season. And I just think low skill, undersized big man with a catastrophic knee injury is the wrong pick for the Washington Wizards to make. Don't see that ending well.

Len was seriously injured at the time of the draft too. Porter was the one who hadn't missed more than one or two games and looked totally healthy. His injury situation is the kind of thing that only happens here.

We haven't seen Porter play at all yet, so it's far too early to regret making the pick. But based on the early returns this season, the two guys we really might end up regretting passing over are Steven Adams and Michael Carter Williams. We couldn't really have used MCW for ourselves, but maybe we could have dealt him. And we could have used Steven Adams. He's getting major burn on a terrific OKC team and looks like he'll end up being their starting Center sooner rather than later if he keeps playing the way he has. He might be this year's Andre Drummond.

I think Porter will end up being the right pick for us though. We need a mainstay at the SF position and I think Porter will be. I like his potential fit in a starting line up with Wall, Beal, Nene, and Gortat. You've got to go BPA in the draft and at the time, Porter looked like the best two way player in the class.

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Going Commando

Going Commando

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Posted

No disrespect to Porter, he can turn out to be good, but I feel if it were any other team at the 3rd pick, they would have picked someone else. I feel we picked him because he went to Georgetown and would be a fan favorite.

I don't think the GT connection was a factor. When is the last time we picked a GT player? Why not Len? I think Porter was our BPA and I think he'd have been the BPA for a lot of different teams. He was a really good prospect. Super clean, no serious weaknesses on either end of the court. Tested well athletically at the combine. NBA ready skills. Excellent length. Good head on his shoulders, good family background. Performed at a high level for a big time program with a history sending quality players to the NBA.

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Going Commando

Going Commando

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Posted (edited)

Evan Turner's massive jump in productivity this season is a pretty clear example of what it looks like when a team totally mishandles a valuable draft resource. Philly had too much talent at his position already in place and so they didn't commit to him properly for the first three years of his career. Then they lost all of the obstacles to his playing style in an effort to tank and hit the reset button and unwittingly unlocked his potential. Now he's blowing up, and it's clear Philly probably wasted the first three years of his career.

Feels like teams with good players already on their roster shouldn't make high draft picks that they won't use early on. The Darko Milicic rule. That player always seems to get unfairly labeled a bust when really their team just never gave them a proper opportunity to actually develop. And every player has a crucial window early in their career where they need to develop before their identity is totally defined.

Philly should have dealt Andre Iggoudala and Jrue Holiday immediately after picking Turner and found a better facilitating PG than Lou Williams. They're playing better now running the offense through Turner with a true facilitator in MCW at PG and a journeyman playing SG than they were when they had those other guys.

Now look at OKC's rebuild. They moved on from Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis and committed to Durant, for better or for worse. He started developing immediately and totally realized his potential. Lewis and Allen would have taken away opportunities from Durant, taken the ball out of his hands, hindered his playing style. It was a huge risk. They lost two All Stars, one of which was a future HoFer. But they trusted their team building strategy and stuck to the process and it worked.

Equally interesting is what happened with James Harden. OKC went BPA with him, which I think was the right choice given the circumstances. He was never going to fully realize his potential fighting for Durant and Westbrook's scraps as the sixth man. He was good, but not a superstar. Then he gets this opportunity in Houston where the team runs the offense through him and he blows up into a true superstar.

Now consider our rebuild, the stupid and bipolar implementation of this strategy:

1.) First year, we select Wall and make it clear from day one that it's his team. FO deals away Gilbert Arenas ASAP, and John Wall is free to grow and struggle and eventually thrive, his minutes and his role never in question at all.

2.) Next year the Wizards select Vesely and then promptly load up on veteran players far more ready to play now, to the point where he doesn't even see the floor most nights. He can't ever fail without his minutes getting scratched for a month. The team makes no commitment to him, and he rots away on the bench, his career never even getting off the ground. Now he probably leaves DC next season, having played less than 2000 minutes total for the team.

3.) Next year the Wizards select Beal, who is immediately given the starting SG role, they deal away Jordan Crawford ASAP, and Beal's minutes and role are never in question for a moment. The team has totally committed to him, even though he struggled a ton early on.

4.) Next year the Wizards select Porter, give him no clear or immediate role, dick around with his position at the very first opportunity to do so, and we promptly sign a veteran at his position for four years. And Ariza is still here. I have to wonder if Porter's return has been so slow because the team has no role planned for him right now. Regardless, when he gets back, Ariza, Harrington, and Webster are totally blocking him from playing.

And Ariza, Harrington, and Webster are NOT the kind of players you keep around to block a fresh #3 pick.

Porter's injury has actually bought us time to sort the roster out in front of him. But we're clearly on the wrong path for developing Porter. Ariza needs to be dealt. It's tricky because he's not the obvious cancer/marginal player that Jordan Crawford and Arenas were. But he needs to be dealt no less, and being good means he should actually get something useful back for us.

Webster is alright because he's not necessarily blocking Porter from starting. Harrington isn't either, but Wittman better not have a quick hook on Porter to go for Harrington when he gets back this season.

When you've got a high draft pick you're expecting to become a foundation piece, you've got to commit to them even when they suck early on. You've got to build in such a way that will facilitate their growth. I really hope we don't Jan Vesely Otto Porter.

Edited by stevemcqueen1
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Chachie

Chachie

Posted
Posted

Is there a chance we'll have three All Stars? Wall, Beal and Gortat?

Anyway, anyone else see the Bernie and Ernie 30 for 30 on ESPN? Shame we have to hate Ernie. Seems like a pretty cool guy.

 

 

 

Ernie is a cool guy, Curse. He's just a lukewarm GM.  :)

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StillUnknown

StillUnknown

Posted
Posted

What if this team ends up growing into a contender? Grunfeld's project. I'm going to have really conflicted feelings about him if it does. He'd be the luckiest man in sports.

 

In order to turn this team into a contender, he would have to convince a great player to come here via free agency. If he does that, I can convince myself he doesn't exist.

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Going Commando

Going Commando

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Posted

In order to turn this team into a contender, he would have to convince a great player to come here via free agency. If he does that, I can convince myself he doesn't exist.

I don't know if we need one more big outside acquisition to contend. The Grizzlies contend without a traditional superstar. We can build like that--get five good starters that complement each other, whether or not any of them are superstars. I think Wall and Beal have more upside than anyone on Memphis though. Particularly as scorers.

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hunterx

hunterx

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Posted

I'm really anxious to see Otto Porter play as well as everyone else here and on the team.  But I am just as excited to see Nene and Gortat play together on the floor this year.  Gort seems to be very comfortable and moves well around the basket for rebounds.  Wall and Beal seem to be clicking.  I am overly anxious to see these guys continue to jell.  Ariza/Webster seem to fill their roles well enough to get by.  Who would Potter replace on the roster?  Seraphin doesn't get many minutes, but he's efficient with over 55% FG%.  Harrington gets a good amount of minutes, I guess he could be the one to lose some if Potter comes back.

 

I'm just super stoked about Beal-Wall in a time when the other major DC sports teams seem to be falling apart.

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Going Commando

Going Commando

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Posted

The Nats are going to be alright. That's a rock solid organization with loads of talent.

No idea what's going to happen with the Redskins. Hope they're just having a tough year.

The plan for Porter is for him to start at SF eventually, so he'll replace Ariza. I think he'll be a pretty big upgrade down the line because he's a similarly excellent defender but has a lot more natural offensive ability. He's kind of like a long, lanky Beal in his offensive skill set. Lots of catch and shoot jumpers, transition finishes, and sneaky ability to get to the rim. He's less explosive than Beal, but probably a more natural a facilitator. He's a high skill player.

I like his ability to score in the intermediate areas because it gives us something different. Beal has a two dribble mid rnage game but it's not that well ironed out. Wall's intermediate game is elbow pull ups and that sick little floater. Porter has a legit high post game with moves he can go to from 12-15 feet--turnarounds and face up drives and he really excels at coming off screens and pulling up. It'll be a nice new option for the offense and we won't have to rely so heavily on the three ball and John's ability to get to the rim.

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Going Commando

Going Commando

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Posted

OKC's broadcast team is amateur. They're stretching to put a positive OKC spin on every single thing that happens on the floor. We have it really good with Phil and Buck. They're the best broadcast team I've listened to. By far.

Kendrick Perkins is damn near useless. OKC should play Adams a lot more.

God Beal makes it look easy. Wow.

They are allowing a hell of a lot of contact. I think that favors us if we can get the ball inside more often to Gortat and Nene.

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