CSN: Shanahan Keys: Takeaways & Rushing Offense

[clskinsfan]

Well if we are going to compare Elway and Campbell I will throw out a couple of stats.

Elway 34 career game winning drives. 148 career wins.

Campbell 6 career game winning drives. 20 career wins.

See what happens when you cherry pick stats. Give me a break.

[pjfootballer]

I think we need to get back on track. A thread about the running game and turnovers has turned into another Campbell crapfest. He's in Oakland now. Let it go. Let's get back to talking about the rushing game and turnovers on defense please.

[TheShredder]

JC is no John Elway. JC is not a Redskin. JC is not a proven leader. JC is a serviceable QB.

Shanahan took a year off to evaluate the league and study it. By his own hand he admitted that it was nice to see what everybody else was doing without having to look at it critically as an opponent. He said he got a different perspective and gave him new ideas. ((remember that??))

Winning changes everything. It's one game at a time. I like our odds. HTTR!!!

[DGREENHULK]

Great example of HOW THE NFL HAS BECOME MORE OF A PASSING LEAGUE, where the same stats that get you a Pro Bowl in 1994, are only good enough to be ranked 15th last season.

So what your saying is that if JC would have been born 15 years before he was we would have had a Canton 1st ballot HOFmr on our hands.....Anyone can look at the stats and twist them to make their argument stronger..I think JC played well last year. I also believe that Shanny agreed with EVERYONE on this board. By that I mean for the ones that blamed JC enter McNabb and for the ones (me included) who blamed the Oline enter our 4th overall pick TW and Pro bowler J. Brown at RT. So in reality we all were right because Shanny and Allen solved both problems.

[Dukes and Skins]

As the topic states the keys are true. IF our rushing offense is successful and we are able to get takeaways and allow our offense to start with great field position, then we will have a year that we all can finally be happy to watch

[Mahons21]

That's true to some extent but I think the effect of the changing interference rules is a bit overstated by fans and the media especially. Dan Marino threw for 5,000 yards in the 80's after all. The changing intereference rules came about as a response to the general increase in team speed on defense throughout the league to have a stabilizing effect on offensive production, rather than boost it to a large degree.

That's an interesting perspective, I had never looked at it that way before. I must admit, I participated in group think, and believed much like everyone else that the main reasoning behind the changes was QB's are usually the highest paid and most coveted players on the field so obviously you want to keep them in good health because it will most likely equate to higher ratings (not a lot over average NFL fans want to watch a physical game where the players grind it out with a score like 10-7). Better passing attacks will likely equate to higher scoring, which in turn will likely lead to higher television ratings.

Dan Marino was also arguably the greatest QB of all time. It wasn't that a high-flying passing attack couldn't exist in the previous era's, it was just more difficult to attain in my opinion.

The biggest changes from the 1994 era to this one IMO is in the development of sports medicine as a science and in the level of preparation players and coaches go through each week for their games. Offense is up in general today, not just passing offense, but I think it's due more to the quality of gameplanning in today's NFL and also the fact that guys probably stay healthier now over the course of a season than they used to and lineups are a little more fixed.

Another interesting perspective I had never taken before, but I really see where you're coming from. Again I had looked at it in a more simplistic manner, looking at what I perceived to be the obvious. If a QB is protected by all these late hit rules he will be more comfortable in the pocket, a more comfortable QB usually means a better performance from said QB.

Regardless, Elways' season wasn't all that remarkable in 1994, especially by his own standards. He was 8th in passing yards, 12th in TDs, 11th in Y/A, 7th in cmp%, and the Broncos only went 7-9. He probably went to the Probowl because Jim Kelly and Joe Montana were starting to wind down and the NFC was a little stronger in quarterbacks.

Very true, about the other 2 QB's. And even though Elway's stats weren't maybe up to par, I'd say ranking close to top 10 in most of those categories is still impressive. In addition Elway was ranked #2 in plays over 40+ yards, which I think most fans find impressive. Everyone likes seeing those highlight reel plays.

That's not the issue I was trying to point out though. Deserving or not, Elway was considered a great QB that year and Jason Campbell is considered by many to be a bad QB after last year's performance. I think the issue is that there comes a point in every quarterbacks career where he either gets a golden ticket from the media and/or fans that excuses him from bad performances and gets him remembered as a great QB, or he doesn't get that golden ticket and eventually gets run out of town. The truth is that all QBs are up and down, sometimes for whole seasons at a time, and every QB turns in some godawful performances if he plays long enough. Some QBs are just lucky to get patience and stability from their organizations and fan base while others don't despite similar levels of performance. Take for example the level of play of a guy like Carson Palmer and the level of play of one like Jake Delhomme or Matt Hasselback. I would say that Palmer got a pass for suck ass perfomances from his FO and the media while Delhomme and Hasselback never really got the same kind of patience despite both having pretty successful careers overall, and better careers than Palmer has had to date.

I agree with some of this, though I think a lot of Palmer's play is attributed to his injuries so that's why he was able to get a pass. As far as Delhomme goes, I completely disagree with you, the guy had a 5 INT playoff game and was extended for another year. The following season he had two games with 4 INT's and another with 3, before he was finally benched.

As far as Hasselbeck goes, I am in agreement with you. I've always been a fan of his, and don't think he got a fair shake this past couple of years. Possibly expectations were too high after his great performances into the post season years prior, but in my opinion Matt's one hell of a QB.

I'm a firm believer that franchise quarterbacks are made rather than born and that bad franchises don't make franchise QBs. The trouble is that with players, often poorly informed media or fan perception becomes the reality in assessing their career. A monolithic consensus is sought when writing the book on a player and extreme and uncomplicated positions are usually assumed. The truth is almost always somewhere in the middle though. For instance John Elway was actually human and had some unimpressive games, even unimpressive seasons. Also Jason Campbell was neither really a great nor terrible QB for us, but tended a bit more towards good than bad most of the time, reflected in his average to slightly above average statistical numbers. All in all, he did alright when you realize he was a young QB still improving a great deal every season despite having an awful set of circumstances to work with.

This is where we disagree. I think you either have it or don't. Even in less than ideal circumstance there have been young QB's that have succeeded. Donovan McNabb is a great example. His first full year as a starter he went 21/13 TD/INT with an additional 6 rushing TD's, this with no talent at WR to really speak of, and no real threat at RB. However this doesn't mean that circumstances can't help speed the development of a QB.

If franchise QB's are made, why on earth do so many people spend 1st round picks on QB's. Wouldn't someone in the NFL have picked up on this notion, that franchise QB's are created. Which is why I can't grasp how you can logically deduce that franchise QB's are made. If that were the case why would any FO with half a brain invest a 1st rounder on a QB.. When they could use that on a T/WR/RB/C/G that would help create a future franchise QB that they could use their 7th round draft pick on.

Do their surroundings impact them? Certainly, but the same can be said for every other position on a football team.

[darrelgreenie]

Interesting stat lines there. Here's another,

During that 1994 season with that terrible Denver offensive line and running game:

John Elway's stats: 62.1% cmp% | 3,490 yds | 16 TDs | 10 INTs | 7.1 Y/A | 249.3 Y/game | 85.7 rating | 46 sacks

During the 2009 season with a terrible Washington offensive line and running game:

Jason Campbell's stats: 64.5 cmp% | 3,618 yds | 20 TDs | 15 INTs | 7.1 Y/A | 226.1 Y/game | 86.4 rating | 43 sacks

GP-Thanks for the stats/info.

I wonder how much change in personelle their was between the 1994 Bronco's and the 1995 Bronco's.

But, personelle changes not withstanding i think the article represents the number 1 reason i'm looking forward to this season and that's the strength of the coaching staff and the success of the scheme.

I think there is no doubt that this years running game will be much improved from last year which in turn will set-up the downfield play-action passing game.

I think it demonstrates that posters around here like you have a burr up their ass about Campbell to where they could never view him with anything even approaching objectivity.

I'm a firm believer that franchise quarterbacks are made rather than born and that bad franchises don't make franchise QBs. The trouble is that with players, often poorly informed media or fan perception becomes the reality in assessing their career.

Well said on both counts.

[Enter Apotheosis]

Mike Shanahan WAS a good coach but something about the game passed him by.

Come on, now. There were people spewing this kind of garbage back in January and all of them were summarily rebuked. Shanahan was one of the game's better coaches and top offensive minds from 1992 all the way through 2008. He really only fell short on the defensive side of the ball and that had less to do with his coaching than it did his defensive coordinators and a serious of questionable personnel moves made over his last four seasons.

The issue with the Broncos from the time Elway retired to the time that Shanny was canned was twofold: One, the defense became bad at the end of his tenure. And by bad I mean really bad. The second is that his teams got away from having a very balanced offense to a pass happy one once he drafted Cutler.

The second was due primarily to the first as well as a rash of RB injuries. :2cents:

[TDColt]

Come on, now. There were people spewing this kind of garbage back in January and all of them were summarily rebuked. Shanahan was one of the game's better coaches and top offensive minds from 1992 all the way through 2008. He really only fell short on the defensive side of the ball and that had less to do with his coaching than it did his defensive coordinators and a serious of questionable personnel moves made over his last four seasons.

The second was due primarily to the first as well as a rash of RB injuries. :2cents:

Wasn't questionable personnel moves one of the things I pointed out? Garbage? Lets look at the facts then.

After Elway's retirement and Davis' career-ending injuries, Shanahan went seven years without a playoff win (including three times where the Broncos didn't even make the playoffs), a drought which caused some criticism from fans. The playoff drought ended on January 14, 2006 when the Broncos defeated the two-time defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots in the AFC Divisional Round of the playoffs at Invesco Field at Mile High.

On December 30, 2008, Shanahan was fired after the Broncos failed to make the playoffs during the 2008 NFL season.[2] It was the third consecutive year in which Denver didn't make the playoffs and the Broncos had spent most of the season well ahead of their division, but injuries (e.g. going through seven starting running backs) caused Denver to lose the last three games (winning any of which would have guaranteed a playoff spot) and finishing with an 8-8 record. Shanahan had a coaching record of 24-24 over those three seasons

Lets hope that the year off gave him a new set of perspective but sometimes in the heat of the game a coach ( like alot of players) resort to what they know best. Again I say that Kyle will be the one to save him. Kyle is the new perspective Mike needs to turn his career around again.

[redskins55]

You can definitely see why Shanahan wanted to transition to a 3-4 defense. He wants to create more turnovers and increase that stat drastically. And he improved the offensive line to improve the YPC for the Redskins. I dont think Shanny cares about a home run threat but he wants a system in which a fresh RB can gain 5 yards a pop and open up the defense for McNabb to have options for big plays on bootlegs, routes to the TEs and downfield to the WRs.

[Oldskool]

The second was due primarily to the first as well as a rash of RB injuries. :2cents:

It wasn't true for the majority of his career after Elway retired. Really only applicable in both 2007 and 2008. Look at the numbers again.

 							
Broncos   	1995	594	440	1034	154	57.45%	42.55%
Broncos   	1996	536	525	1061	11	50.52%	49.48%
Broncos   	1997	513	520	1033	-7	49.66%	50.34%
Broncos   	1998	491	525	1016	-34	48.33%	51.67%
Broncos   	1999	554	465	1019	89	54.37%	45.63%
Broncos   	2000	569	516	1085	53	52.44%	47.56%
Broncos   	2001	511	481	992	30	51.51%	48.49%
Broncos   	2002	554	457	1011	97	54.80%	45.20%
Broncos   	2003	479	543	1022	-64	46.87%	53.13%
Broncos   	2004	521	534	1055	-13	49.38%	50.62%
Broncos   	2005	465	542	1007	-77	46.18%	53.82%
Broncos   	2006	454	488	942	-34	48.20%	51.80%
Broncos   	2007	515	429	944	86	54.56%	45.44%
Broncos   	2008	620	387	1007	233	61.57%	38.43%

Averages	     526.86	489.43	1016.29	37.43 51.84%	48.16%

From 1999 (1st year sans Elway) until Cutler in 2007, the offense was fairly balanced.

In 2007, he had Travis Henry (not in his prime but still effective at a 4.1 ypc clip) and Selvin Young (who had 140 touches at a 5.2 ypc). In that year, they had 86 more passing plays than run plays. Something that they hadn't done in 4 years prior. The 86 pass/run differential was the 3rd highest total to date in Shanahan's 13 year career (at that time) as a head coach.

As for the defense, you can see that as soon as Cutler started in 2007 and the pass/run ratio went out of whack, the defense also starting getting really bad.

Overall defensive rankings.

1999 7th
2000 24th
2001 8th
2002 6th
2003 4th
2004 4th
2005 15th
2006 14th
2007 19th
2008 29th

[LBetts]

Interesting stat lines there. Here's another,

During that 1994 season with that terrible Denver offensive line and running game:

John Elway's stats: 62.1% cmp% | 3,490 yds | 16 TDs | 10 INTs | 7.1 Y/A | 249.3 Y/game | 85.7 rating | 46 sacks

During the 2009 season with a terrible Washington offensive line and running game:

Jason Campbell's stats: 64.5 cmp% | 3,618 yds | 20 TDs | 15 INTs | 7.1 Y/A | 226.1 Y/game | 86.4 rating | 43 sacks

Jason Campbell played slightly better individually than John Elway did in similarly awful conditions. Elway had 11 seasons under his belt for '94 and had already been to five Probowls, but sure as shooting, Jason Campbell put up equal to, or slightly better numbers than him in almost every statistical category. Statistically speaking, the 1994 Broncos were a little better on offense and a little worse on defense than we were but other than that, the rankings for each are remarkably similar.

John Elway went to the Probowl in 1994 and Jason Campbell was given away for nothing. The NFL is a strange beast.

Possibly because in 1994 Elway oversaw the 6th best passing offense in the league, had the 7th highest passing yardage and, of the top ten QBs the 3rd highest completion rate...

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/1994/ and http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/1994/passing.htm

[Going Commando]

Well if we are going to compare Elway and Campbell I will throw out a couple of stats.

Elway 34 career game winning drives. 148 career wins.

Campbell 6 career game winning drives. 20 career wins.

See what happens when you cherry pick stats. Give me a break.

You're quoting team stats when you quote wins. What that says to me is that the Broncos were better during Elway's career than the Redskins were during Campbell's. That's not a very informative stat because anything more I tried to draw from it would involve a lot of unsupported inference and supposition. (e.g. coaching quality for each was equitable, surrounding talent was equitable, SoS was equitable, etc.)

GW drives is interesting but it's also a highly situational stat that needs a lot of context to make sense. But is there much point to comparing a really long view stat like career GW drives (most QBs only get a couple each season) for a guy who played and started almost 20 years to a guy who played and started for only 3 and a half?

I did not and am not saying Campbell was as great as Elway is, which a lot of posters seem to think I am. I'm saying that Campbell was actually pretty good in a similar situation to John Elway's 1994 season by the standards Elway set that year. I guess I'm also saying more generally that no QB, Elway included, has ever been perfect and that even Elway had some ordinary seasons though some (John Clayton IIRC) consider him the greatest QB ever.

[The Tris]

I wonder how much change in personelle their was between the 1994 Bronco's and the 1995 Bronco's.

I was actually thinking about more ways to compare Elway and McNabb, and OL was obviously high on my list. Since I have been using 4 year windows (and since I think that is was we have best case with McNabb), let's look at the OL's in 4 year windows as well.

I mention briefly Denver's anemic running game pre-Shanahan, but let's look closer in terms of OL skill.

1. Rushing

From 1991-1994, Denver ranked 8th, 25th, 18th, and 23rd in rushing ypg.

1991 was the only time in that span they had a 1000 yd rusher (though ironically Elway lead the team with 6 rushing TDs). From that high water mark, they only had one other rusher break over 650 yards (1993 when they finished 18th). Perhaps the talent at RB was such that the running game was stagnant until Terrell Davis arrived in 1995 with Shanahan...perhaps. I would tend to think that with an elite passer keeping defenses honest, you would need only an average back and/or an average line to avoid such an anemic running game.

2. Pass Pro

Now in terms of sacks, from 1991-1994, Elway was the 3rd (45), 3rd (36), 5th (39), and 1st (49) most sacked QB. Now Elway holds the record for most sacks in a career at 516 or an average of over 32 per season. So this can not all be due to his line play, as he routinely held onto the ball too long trying to make the big play.

But when Shanahan came in in 1995, that sacks number dropped to 22, then 26, 34, and 18 his final season. He was never in the top 10 most sacked QBs in those years, and with the exception of 1997, he was being sacked at a much lower rate than his career average.

Either his line got better or he got better at releasing the ball under Shanahan, either way this is a good thing for McNabb under Shanahan.

3. 1994 vs. 1995 Broncos

So, in 1994, Denver had the 23rd (remember 28 teams too) ranked rushing game, averaging 3.4 ypc and 91.1 ypg AND the most sacked QB (2nd most sacks given up in the NFL). This despite being the 10th ranked scoring offense and having the 4th most passing yards in the NFL. Oh, and I almost forgot to mention, the longest run of the year for the 1994 Broncos? 24 yards. That to me sounds like a bad offensive line.

In 1995, Denver had the 5th ranked rushing attack, averging 4.5 ypc and 124.7 ypg while Elway was only sacked 22 times (as a team they gave up 26, good for 6th best in the NFL). Denver hopped to 9th in scoring and Elway threw for 500 more yards and 10 more TDs versus 4 more INTs.

4. OL Changes

Finally, let's look at what changed on the offensive line (draft pick round in () ):

LT: Gary Zimmerman (1st round 1984) stayed the same. The HOF was entering his 9th season in 1995, his 4th with the Broncos.

LG: Upgraded from journeyman Jon Melander (5th 1990) to our own Mark Schlereth (10th 1989), who was signed as an unrestricted FA. Can someone wiser than I tell me what the temperture was on letting Schlereth walk? He was younger than Ray Brown who replaced him, no?

C: The immortal Dave Widell (4th 1988) was replaced by future All-Pro Tom Nalen (7th 1994). Now, this was a player not picked by Shanahan, who started only one game his rookie year, who turned into a 12 year starter and 5 time Pro-Bowler. Was this a gem Shanny lucked into, or an example of Shanny putting a player in a system that extracted every bit of his ability?

This is the question I am really asking...did the personnel get better between 94 and 95, or did the coaching and scheme get better?

RG: Brian Habib (10th 1988) stayed the same. Ho hum. He was 31 in 1995

RT: The RT by committee of Kirk Scraffold (UDFA 1990) and Russ Freeman (UDFA 1990) was replaced by another UDFA, everyone's favorite 35 year old Broderick Thompson (1985). He played one more season for Denver and retired, replaced by kicking over 36 year old Gary Zimmerman, who was in turn replaced by 31 year old Tony E. Jones (UDFA 1988)

5. Eventual Point After Rambling

So what does this loooong winded post really boil down to?

The 1995 Broncos got better at LG, got a hidden gem young C, and everything else on the line was basically a wash. It's not like the 1995 Denver line was the Hogs, or at least their play from previous years wouldn't have lead you to believe so before the season.

As I aluded when talking about Nalen...The SCHEME got better. The personnel really wasn't completely overhauled with youth and pro bowlers.

The ONLY case that can be made for Elway's statistical uptick starting in 1995 other than Shanahan (and culminating in back to back SBs as a 37 and 38 year old) is Terrell Davis. And while I think he was such a great talent for a small window - after 1998's 2000 yard season, his knees limited him to a high of 700 yards in 2001, the season before he retired - the success that Shanahan had with other unheralded running backs leads me to believe that the scheme was as much to do with TD's career as his natural talent.

Scheme, scheme, scheme. In Shanahan I trust, especially after seeing just how much Donovan resembles Elway.

And if you aren't tired of reading me yet, just for the sake of contrast, relevant Redskins stats from last season:

27th (out of 32) in rushing ypg at 94.4 (so we were 6th worst, 1994 Broncos were 6th worst as well)

4th worst in rush ypc at 3.7 (1994 Broncos were 5th worst at 3.4)

3rd most sacked QB at 43 (1994 Elway was 1st most sacked with 49)

[The Tris]

Two more posts from the thread that I just quote from:

I think you are severly overlooking Elway's Pre-Shanahan legacy, in which he could not win the big one, as well as ignoring the statistical uptick that Elway had in his final four seasons with Shanahan.

In 12 years before Shanahan, Elway threw for 37,736 yards and 199 TDs. An average of 3,144 yds and 16.5 TDs per year.

In McNabb's 11 seasons in Philly, he threw for 32,873 yards and 216 TDs. An average of 2,988 yds and 19.6 TDs per year.

Playoff records in those times: Elway 7-6, McNabb 9-7. Obviously neither won a Super Bowl.

And while you might think, "Well, McNabb played in a more pass happy era"...McNabb average 431 attempts per year over that span, while Elway averaged 448.

Elway's averages jumped to 3,434 yards per year and 25 TDs per year with Shanahan, and he was 7-1 with two Super Bowls in the playoffs. He was 34 when Shanahan took over the Broncos. McNabb is currently 33.

Let me be clear, Elway is now the superior QB. But it is not by some wide margain that would dictate you deride McNabb as McPOS and laugh at the comparison of the two. It's much, much closer than you think. And let's not dismiss the possiblity that Shanahan could have a similar positive influence on McNabb's stats in his twilight years.

McNabb: 6-2, 240 lbs

Elway: 6-3, 215 lbs

Again, not THAT big a difference. If anything, McNabb being a little thicker should help him avoid injuries, not make him more injury prone.

In terms of being "an athletic QB who makes plays with his feet", McNabb has not rushed for more than 240 yards in a season since 2003.

The last four year of Elways career, he average 184 yards rushing a season (high of 249 in 1996, low of 94 in 1997). The past four years of McNabb's career, he has averaged 183 yards rushing a season (high of 236 in 2007, low of 140 in 2009).

Based on those numbers, I fail to see how McNabb is THAT much different a QB at this stage of his career than Elway. I have yet to see evidence that Shanahan will not be able to have a similar positive impact on McNabb's game as he did with Elway. That is, why could Elway take his game to another level and not McNabb?

The bottomline is that Elway and McNabb are eeriely similar QBs at 33/34 and when Shanahan became their coach.

And I am also struck by the anemic running games that both Elway and McNabb shared Pre-Shanny, with the 92-94 Broncos ranking 25th, 18th, and 23rd, and the 07-09 Eagles ranking 8th, 22nd, 22nd.

Give Elway Shanny and a running game, 2 SBs in four years.

Give McNabb Shanny and a running game....who knows?

[Reign]

Wasn't questionable personnel moves one of the things I pointed out? Garbage? Lets look at the facts then.

Lets hope that the year off gave him a new set of perspective but sometimes in the heat of the game a coach ( like alot of players) resort to what they know best. Again I say that Kyle will be the one to save him. Kyle is the new perspective Mike needs to turn his career around again.

You should check your source again....

You can't make the playoffs in 2006 after beating the defending superbowl champs (Patriots) and then get fired in 2008 for not making the playoffs for THREE consecutive years...

Math doesn't add up.

[darrelgreenie]

I wonder how much change in personelle their was between the 1994 Bronco's and the 1995 Bronco's.

http://www.extremeskins.com/showpost.php?p=7499358&postcount=156

Wow, talk about ask and you shall receive.

Post like that renew my faith in this forum.

Thanks bro, very well researched.

One could agrue that our OL from a talent persepctive has improved more then the 1994-1995 Bronco's and once you factor in the scheme upgrade i'll be shocked if the running game doesn't improve by a wide margin.

If were at a bar i'd buy your next beer

[The Tris]

One could agrue that our OL from a talent persepctive has improved more then the 1994-1995 Bronco's and once you factor in the scheme upgrade i'll be shocked if the running game doesn't improve by a wide margin.

I would certainly argue that point. If you didn't notice, I made these posts on April 28th, shortly after the draft when the Trent Williams pick was still being analyzed.

Since then, we have heard nothing but glowing reviews of Williams (grain of salt taken, but still) and we traded for Jammal Brown.

I think there is a very strong case to be made that there has been a much greater upgrade of the Redskins line from 09 to 10 than was made with the Broncos line from 94 to 95. Now obviously, the 09 line was worse than the 94 Broncos line, and it remains to be seen the effectiveness of the 2010 Redskins line, but the signs are extremely encouraging.

[TDColt]

You should check your source again....

You can't make the playoffs in 2006 after beating the defending superbowl champs (Patriots) and then get fired in 2008 for not making the playoffs for THREE consecutive years...

Math doesn't add up.

You're right. I looked it up and they failed to make the 2006 playoffs.

They made the playoffs in 2005 when they beat New England but then lost to Pitt.

[PlayAction]

When did the NFL switch to a 16 game season? Are we comparing yards and pass completions using the same number of games?