Do you think health care reform will pass?

[JMS]

I think it will pass if it comes to a vote. If the Dems bring it out for a vote and don't have the support to pass it they are dumber than even I give them credit for being.

You know having phrased it that way, Now I'm not sure.

[Baculus]

GD it do your friggin homework:

Don't swear at me when you show no evidence of doing YOUR homework.

1) It ought to be a clue that it is already 90 billion higher than the numbers talked about last summer.

That averages out to nine billion extra a year, over a ten year span. Heck, we were spending ten billion a month on the war on terror. We'll spending over five trillion dollars on the DOD during same time span.

2) It is scored without knowledge of the specifics of the Bill

Yes, it is a preliminary analysis. That doesn't change that fact the fact that H.R. 4872, the Reconciliation Act of 2010, is based on the senate's bill. This is NOT some totally different, completely new bill, but just a few parts have been amended via the reconciliation.

The CBO states that much.

3) It assumes no coverage for illegal aliens (what legislation do you think will be next in the following year or so?)

Of course. Why would it assume coverage for illegal aliens? This is a red herring.

4) It includes accounting tricks like taxes with no benefits the first 4 yrs to estimate a cost for only the first 10 years.

Wrong. Some of the bill's changes would be enacted this year.

The CBO had originally scored the bill beyond ten years, but it is difficult to measure anything fiscally beyond ten years. After all, what bill has been scored by the CBO beyond a decade?

5) The CBO head affirmed that his organization had "not thoroughly examined the legislative language".

The CBO HAS examined the previous bill, which this reconciled bill is based upon.

This is what they said:

"The estimate is presented in three ways:

* An estimate of the budgetary effects of the reconciliation proposal, in combination with the effects of H.R. 3590, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA), as passed by the Senate;1

* An estimate of the incremental effects of the reconciliation proposal, over and above the effects of enacting H.R. 3590 by itself;

* An estimate of the budgetary impact of the reconciliation proposal under the assumption that H.R. 3590 is not enacted (that is, an estimate of the bill’s impact relative to current law as of today).

"Although CBO completed a preliminary review of legislative language prior to its release, the agency has not thoroughly examined the reconciliation proposal to verify its consistency with the previous draft. This estimate is therefore preliminary, pending a review of the language of the reconciliation proposal, as well as further review and refinement of the budgetary projections."

6) The bill raises taxes in all manner of areas there are going to have repercussions that can't possibly be understood in the week or so this estimate was hurriedly compiled. It has an implicit assumption that more income will be exposed to taxes - enjoy!

Cite examples before spewing your lame snarkiness. We already know some taxes are being raised, but you are just making broad pronouncement without any specifics, what--so-ever.

7) The current variant has provisions that will reduce social security taxes - a system headed for insolvancy.

I see no evidence of this, nor do I see a reason why these taxes would be reduced. Where is your source for this?

8) It retains many of the corrupting buy-offs that are unrelated to health care and adds new ones.

If you are referring to the student loan addition, provide evidence to how this is a "corrupting buy off."

As far as the senatorial "deals" made for some senators, while I don't think they are fair, senators always try to win money for their state. It is how Congress works, for good or bad. It is not defensible, but these sort of "deals" have been worked out in legislation for years by both sides.

How do you think states win billion dollar federal deals?

Most people wanted them removed. Eventually they decided that reform was more important.

This effort is a monstrosity and will cause huge divisions in this country for years to come. It has very little to do with true health care and everything to do with a power grab that is breathtaking. This bill will eventually render over 50% of the population....enemies of the state. just watch. it is corrput to the core and in that fact lies the seeds of its own demise. history has a way of always evening the score.

YOUR side has ALREADY caused huge division within this country, with the constant cries of "socialism" and accusing pro-reformers of being communists.

And look at your own hyperbole language, saying how "this bill will eventually render over 50% of the population....enemies of the state."

Give me a break. What does this even mean?

Don't tell me about division, buddy -- the right-wing has already done that, to the point that your side of the aisle has even threatened secession over . . . what? Health care reform? And you are just adding to it, with your volatile attitude.

And YOUR side of the aisle had no trouble spending five to seven trillion over the last decade, but now you are screaming over a decade-long $940 billion bill?

Spare me the crocodile tears.

Don't tell me about history, which has shown that the right-wing have tried to stop health care reform for decade after decade. Costs have skyrocketed since the last time we tried it: THAT is what history will show.

If you think the economy is bad now...wait till 2012 when all these taxes and incomplete, ineffective cost contaiers have had a chance to work their magic. I wouldn't want to be a young person graduating in that timeframe.

Yeah, as if you would do anything to help out these "young people." This bill adds a provision so these young people can stay on their parents insurance, helping these students to save money for tuition.

Did you think about this? Naw -- probably not.

[Baculus]

yes...and a growth rate that sustained improvement for all levels in the standard of living since the 1950s. Obama is going to kill that. we are headed for decades of high unemployment and stagnant growth.

and...naturally...you have moved off on a tangent by abstracting from the context of the post.

regulate.monitor.detect.enforce. GOT IT?

We have already seen a flat-lining of this growth rate for many Americans. And do you know why? Because of the costs of health care, which is affecting wages. This has been going for a while, and it is a bit ridiculous to blame Obama for this.

[Baculus]

Yes, if it manages to get some of those visits taken care of using preventative care or at least via the non-emergency route. Both are much, much cheaper.

Unfortunately this bill does not address the problem of not enough primary care physicians.

I wonder if the student loan element can assist the GP issue in some way, with additional aid for medical students?

I know at least $500 million of last year's stimulus was aimed at the health care industry and education, though I don't know if that has had any affect at all so far.

[Midnight Judges]

Anyone who believes these bogus numbers are just clueless.

Amazingly to of the Democrats "Home Field" news papers actually accused the CBO numbers of failing the "smell test, The Washington Post and the NY Times.

So you point is, these two newspapers suck and can't be trusted but since they are saying something you agree with, they are deemed to be reliable in this case.

That's an odd way of looking at things. When I think a source is crappy, I never listen to them under any circumstances.

Doesn't matter anyway because your source is misrepresenting what the Post and the Times actually said.

[aREDSKIN]

Here's some additional info concerning the HC bill and the sham numbers.

Second, most health staff are already aware that our health proposal does not contain a “doc fix.” Some Republicans have repeated CBO’s November 18th letter that says “the sustainable growth rate (SGR) mechanism governing Medicare’s payments to physicians has been frequently modified (either through legislative or administrative action) to avoid reductions in those payments, and legislation to do so again is currently under consideration in Congress.” The inclusion of a full SGR

repeal would undermine the reform’s budget neutrality. So, again, do not allow yourself (or your boss) to get into a discussion of the details of CBO scores and textual narrative. Instead, focus only on the deficit reduction and number of Americans covered.

As most health staff knows, Leadership and the White House are working with the AMA to rally physicians support for a full SGR repeal later this spring. However, both health and communications staff should understand that we do not want that policy discussed at this time, lest I [sic] complicate the last critical push for health reform.

While I was tracking down the sourcing on this, Politico’s Chris Frates already reported on it:

Democrats are planning to introduce legislation later this spring that would permanently repeal annual Medicare cuts to doctors, but are warning lawmakers not to talk about it for fear that it will complicate their push to pass comprehensive health reform. The plans undercut the party’s message that reform lowers the deficit, according to a memo obtained by POLITICO.

Democrats removed the so-called doc fix from the reform legislation last year because its $371-billion price tag would have made it impossible for Democrats to claim that their bill reduces the deficit. Republicans have argued for months that by stripping the doc fix from the bill, Democrats were playing a shell game.

Basically, this is an admission that the numbers the Democrats submitted to the CBO were entirely false, and that they plan to make this bill a deficit expander in the spring. It’s a breathtaking admission of deceit and hypocrisy — and its exposure should have the media asking more questions about that CBO scoring and putting Democrats in the hot seat over it.

http://hotair.com/archives/2010/03/19/democratic-memo-instructs-staffers-to-mislead-voters-and-media-on-doctor-fix/

[Baculus]

Here's some additional info concerning the HC bill and the sham numbers.

Democrats removed the so-called doc fix from the reform legislation last year because its $371-billion price tag would have made it impossible for Democrats to claim that their bill reduces the deficit. Republicans have argued for months that by stripping the doc fix from the bill, Democrats were playing a shell game.

Basically, this is an admission that the numbers the Democrats submitted to the CBO were entirely false, and that they plan to make this bill a deficit expander in the spring. It’s a breathtaking admission of deceit and hypocrisy — and its exposure should have the media asking more questions about that CBO scoring and putting Democrats in the hot seat over it.

http://hotair.com/archives/2010/03/19/democratic-memo-instructs-staffers-to-mislead-voters-and-media-on-doctor-fix/

Sorry, but Hot Air does not exactly have a sparking record of success with its predictions, especially since the memo in question is potentially a hoax. All of a sudden someone has some mysterious photocopied document with no names or no ties to any member of Congress?

Gee whiz -- you don't think the anti-reformers would resort to any dirty tricks, would they? Naw -- now way!

I mean, listen to this document. Who would write this stuff?

"We cannot emphasize this enough: do not allow yourself (or your boss) to get into a discussion of the details of CBO scores and textual narrative. Instead, focus only on the deficit reduction and number of Americans covered."

How convenient for this mysterious document to appear, now, at this time, with this specific language?

[ABQCOWBOY]

I would like to see what the Tuition Bill is covering. I suspect that part of the language contained in it would be the inclusion of education for Illegals. I know that this is a point of contention for this Bill and is probably why it was added to this legislation rather then having it voted on as a seperate Bill on the Floor of either house. It will not pass either House if it's voted on separately. This should not be attached because the funding that is being used to support this bill is funding from TARP funds designed to be used elsewhere. Legally, TARP funds are to be returned, not used to fund other projects. This is illegal according to the rules that were to be used for TARP. That's why the Bill would never pass on it's own.

[Baculus]

I would like to see what the Tuition Bill is covering. I suspect that part of the language contained in it would be the inclusion of education for Illegals. I know that this is a point of contention for this Bill and is probably why it was added to this legislation rather then having it voted on as a seperate Bill on the Floor of either house. It will not pass either House if it's voted on separately. This should not be attached because the funding that is being used to support this bill is funding from TARP funds designed to be used elsewhere. Legally, TARP funds are to be returned, not used to fund other projects. This is illegal according to the rules that were to be used for TARP. That's why the Bill would never pass on it's own.

Why would they tack on some bill for illegal alien education onto this bill?

[ABQCOWBOY]

Why would they tack on some bill for illegal alien education onto this bill?

Because they could not get it passed otherwise. At least, that is what I've read about the Bill. I have not seen what is contained in the Bill but I did read an article about the Bill before all of this happened and at the time, it was surmised that it could be added to other legislation in order to get it passed. I am sure that there is more to this Bill then just the education of Illegals but as I said, I have not read what was attached so I can not confirm what was included.

[Baculus]

Because they could not get it passed otherwise. At least, that is what I've read about the Bill. I have not seen what is contained in the Bill but I did read an article about the Bill before all of this happened and at the time, it was surmised that it could be added to other legislation in order to get it passed. I am sure that there is more to this Bill then just the education of Illegals but as I said, I have not read what was attached so I can not confirm what was included.

I will withhold my thoughts until I hear more. To me, this sounds a bit outlandish -- where are you hearing about this? What source?

[twa]

I wonder if the student loan element can assist the GP issue in some way, with additional aid for medical students?

I know at least $500 million of last year's stimulus was aimed at the health care industry and education, though I don't know if that has had any affect at all so far.

Would you choose it as a profession knowing your compensation is going to be limited and the costs and liabilities high?

Specialists are where it's at,the GP is a dinosaur that must invest much for little return.

IMO they need to open up who can practice medicine in general to both cut costs and expand availability of care

[DieselPwr44]

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100319-712530.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines

By Bob Tita

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) said the proposed overhaul of the U.S. health-care system could increase its costs by $100 million, signaling disquiet in corporate America about the controversial plan.

The heavy-equipment maker's concerns are focused on the potential loss of subsidies to prescription drug costs it covers for retired employees.

In a letter Thursday to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) and House Republican Leader John Boehner (R., Ohio), Caterpillar urged lawmakers to vote against the plan "because of the substantial cost burdens it would place on our shareholders, employees and retirees."

Discuss.

[twa]

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100319-712530.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines

Discuss.

They have too much money anyway,it needs to be better utilized by helping others.

Old people take too many drugs anyhow and are just sucking up healthcare dollars that could benefit others.

We can cut 500 billion from their healthplan and brag we are reducing the deficit by 100B +

Where's your team spirit people?

[brandymac27]

I will withhold my thoughts until I hear more. To me, this sounds a bit outlandish -- where are you hearing about this? What source?

I just heard on the 5 p.m. news tonight that illegals are now allowed to attend community colleges as long as they graduated from High School and won't take up a legal citizens spot on the school roster. Now, I don't know if this is just a North Carolina thing or what, but that's what they said.

[ABQCOWBOY]

I will withhold my thoughts until I hear more. To me, this sounds a bit outlandish -- where are you hearing about this? What source?

The chance of this Bill being added to other legislation has been speculated for some time. At least, on the Conservative side of the house.

The fact that the Tuition Bill has been contested is old news. That's been going on for awhile.

To me, I would wonder why the President wouldn't want a Bill such as this to be passed through normal procedures if possible. It would be a huge PR opportunity for the Administration and the Party. The only reason you wouldn't do it that way is if you believed you couldn't pass it. To me, you absolutely want to pass that bill with big pub if you can. That only helps the administration so it would make sense that they would try this if they felt they couldn't get it done otherwise.

[aREDSKIN]

Some factoids to ponder.

http://static1.firedoglake.com/1/files/2010/03/mythfactshcr-2.pdf

Another piece of the prevaricating puzzle.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Congressional budget scorekeepers say a Medicare fix that Democrats included in earlier versions of their health care bill would push it into the red.

The Congressional Budget Office said Friday that rolling back a programmed cut in Medicare fees to doctors would cost $208 billion over 10 years. If added back to the health care overhaul bill, it would wipe out all the deficit reduction, leaving the legislation $59 billion in the red.

The so-called doc fix was part of the original House bill. Because of its high cost, Democrats decided to pursue it separately. Republicans say the cost should not be ignored. Congress has usually waived the cuts to doctors year by year.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Medicare-fix-would-push-apf-2700343586.html?x=0&.v=2

[twa]

Some factoids to ponder.

http://static1.firedoglake.com/1/files/2010/03/mythfactshcr-2.pdf

Another piece of the prevaricating puzzle.

Nice link

The two common myths that this will enable complete access and eliminate medical bankruptcies are fallacies that should be exposed...as well as the large uninsured group that will still be a drain.

This POS will do far less good than is sold by the hucksters

[Ax]

Nice link

The two common myths that this will enable complete access and eliminate medical bankruptcies are fallacies that should be exposed...as well as the large uninsured group that will still be a drain.

This POS will do far less good than is sold by the hucksters

Unfortunately, this bill is about saving the Obama presidency. If he loses this now, he will essentially be a lame duck for the rest of his one term.

He knows it, they know it, and we know it.

They've even said so themselves.

The health and well being of the citizenry is the least of their concerns. Trying to make us dependent of the government, and faithful sheep, is job 1.

Pitiful.

[twa]

The health and well being of the citizenry is the least of their concerns. Trying to make us dependent of the government, and faithful sheep, is job 1.

Pitiful.

I fear so

Certainly the proposed bill adds more layers of govt intrusion and is not solely directed at expanding my options.

Not too mention yet another never ending tax liability

[AsburySkinsFan]

Unfortunately, this bill is about saving the Obama presidency. If he loses this now, he will essentially be a lame duck for the rest of his one term.

He knows it, they know it, and we know it.

Which is the only real reason that the Republican leadership is against it.

Pitiful.

You're right...pitiful...actually I would call the GOP shameful, but pitiful works too.

[chipwhich]

Which is the only real reason that the Republican leadership is against it.

You're right...pitiful...actually I would call the GOP shameful, but pitiful works too.

I wonder why people in this thread can't use a real defense instead of political name calling.

It will be a fiscal drain on our government. Base on my experience with Medicare/Medicaid it will also be a real inconvenience.

At any rate, all I care about is fiscal common sense. Unheard of.

[Ax]

Which is the only real reason that the Republican leadership is against it.

Well, kudo's to you for at least agreeing that it's the real reason for trying to pass this, thing. No doubt the R's want him politically dead. Just as you, and the D's did for the previous 8 years with President Bush.

You're right...pitiful...actually I would call the GOP shameful, but pitiful works too.

It certainly could be seen as a plausible description. But, going up against the shenanigans being pulled by the D's to get this pig passed, pitiful, and shameful, seems almost, Christ-like.

[twa]

I wonder why people in this thread can't use a real defense instead of political name calling.

It will be a fiscal drain on our government. Base on my experience with Medicare/Medicaid it will also be a real inconvenience.

At any rate, all I care about is fiscal common sense. Unheard of.

You are clearly a racist political hack simply out to undermine progress.

You didn't get the memo this bill will reduce the deficit?:rotflmao:

[jnhay]

Wow. Is this a gameday thread?