Football Outsiders: 2009 Mock Draft

[Skinned]

My preference:

1) Everette Brown

2) Trade Down and draft OL (Britten) or RB Knowshon Moreno

3) LB (one of the USC 3)

[That Redskins Fan]

I am pulling for a.smith, Oher lack of football IQ worries me even though both smith and oher are boom or bust prospects

I hope the redskins plan to draft two tackles not just one.. That would be the smart thing to do

[flexxskins]

I really want nothing to do with him. He's extremely fat, and lazy. He has major character issues. Athletic linemen > Fat linemen. And he's not just a little bit pudgy. He's huge.

My concern is that Smith will become an instant millionaire and get even fatter.

I'm not worried about his weight right now, he seems to function well as a moderate fatty. It's him becoming obsenely obese that I would worry about.

[mithong1]

did any of you guys watch andre smith in college? that guy is an effing MONSTER. long arms, quick feet (super quick for his size) and he destroys people in run blocking. i dont think the lack of work ethic/immaturity is really an issue.. he'll mature and if he ever develops a serious work ethic, he's gonna be one of the best tackles in the nfl.

[Gibbsisgod2006]

Me personlly I would prefer to trade back and pick up some picks. It is a waste to draft a RT so high in the Draft look at Jansen he was a 2nd round pick and he has been solid for years.

[Hooper]

Instead of saying we won't pick a DE because we never do, they should really say that we aren't going to pick DE because not many of those guys would fit on our team. Too many damn tweeners in this draft.

Except, you know, Vinny uses that excuse every year. He always has some reason for why he didn't take a d-linemen early in the draft. And what's sportswriters are starting to point out his ridiculous philosophy more and more.

That said, I think we have to go offensive line in the first round. Smith was a beast in college -- he dominated defensive ends who will get drafted high. If he drops to 13 because he didn't work out and interview well, it could be a huge blessing for us.

The worst thing we could do is take either one of the USC guys. Cushing looks like he's spent too much time at Balco and Sanchez is a huge risk at quarterback. He's been throwing to guys open by ten yards. That don't happen in the NFL.

[Hooper]

did any of you guys watch andre smith in college? that guy is an effing MONSTER. long arms, quick feet (super quick for his size) and he destroys people in run blocking. i dont think the lack of work ethic/immaturity is really an issue.. he'll mature and if he ever develops a serious work ethic, he's gonna be one of the best tackles in the nfl.

I'm with you. His coach thinks he could be better than Samuels, who is only our best draft pick like ever.

[jivelikenice]

I think everyone would prefer to trade back if the right scenario came up. But to me a trade back would require a few things:

1. Stay high enough where whomever you draft can be counted on to instantly contribute. If you drop to Round 2 laike last year, then obviously the prospects will have more question marks. IMO trade down only if you know an Oher, Britton, Smith, Maualuga, Maybin, Mathews, or Cushing will be there a few spots down. You don't trade out of the top 20-25!!

2. Make sure you're getting premium value. Don't trade down and sacrific the chance at a Maualuga or an Andre Smith if a team is only offering a late picks. To drop out of the top 20 we need a 2nd or a 3rd plus additional picks.

[DB44]

Andre "Moobs" Smith - that boyz good!:doh:

Draft Oline and Dline and I'm happy with who ever they draft.

[gobigred]

I think our goal is OL we can get by without DL the defense was pretty good last year. Unless Orakpo is there it will be a OL. I wanted DL too but OL makes more since to me now unless Smith, Oher and Orakpo are gone then I see trading down.

[elkabong82]

So, I see people are slamming Cerrato cuz he hasn't drafted a DL high in a while. Anybody care to look at which DL were available when we picked? Technically, this past draft was the first one here where Vinny was in charge. However, if you want to pretend Cerrato had more say than Gibbs, then I'll go back to '04. I won't look at Spurrier because he was in charge then, as evidenced by us taking Taylor Jacobs when Vinny wanted Osi. Heck, Spurrier had us take 50/50 when Snyder wanted Santana.

Of course you also have to consider the free agent DL we have brought in. Most recently it's been Andre Carter who gave us a double-digit sack season, first in a long time, and now Haynesworth.

So here's a look from 2004 to today of our picks in the first 3 rounds and which DL were available. I'm only looking at the first 3 because people are complaining about not taking one early, as we have taken some late recently.

2004:

rd1, pick 5: Skins take Sean Taylor. First DL taken was Tommie Harris at 14. You don't draft mid-1st guys with a top 5 pick.

rd 3, pick 81: Chris Cooley. DL taken after in this round: DE Darrion Scott and DE Anthony Hargrove. Should we have taken one of them instead of Cooley?

2005:

rd 1, pick 9: Carlos Rogers. Merriam and Ware were taken after. They are 3-4 OLBs, that's not an easy fit in a 4-3 system that stops the run rather than emphasize pass rush. They would have been OLBs in our system, and I remember I wanted Merriman still, so did others, eventho we had Lavar, a healthy Probowl Washington. Pierce just left, but neither Ware or Merriman are MLBs.

Travis Johnson and Erasmus James were the DL taken shortly afterwards. Spears and Castillo weren't taken until 20 and 28.

rd 1, pick 24: trade up to get Jason Campbell. Whether or not we should have traded up and drafted him is not relevant to this topic, because we are looking at what was available when we drafted, not "what could have been." Castillo was available, but would you have traded next years 1st to move up and get him? This pick, IMO, doesn't apply because we traded up to get a specific person.

No picks in 2nd or 3rd. I too have been sick of us trading draft picks, and it's been the biggest detriment in our drafting, IMO.

2006:

rd 2, pick 35: Rocky McIntosh. We traded up to get him, and he has performed well despite concerns about his knee. The only DL taken in this round was Darryl Tapp, near the very end of the round.

We don't pick again until the 5th, where we take Montgomery.

2007:

rd 1, pick 6: Laron Landry. He has done well for us. He has filled in admirably after ST's passing, but this pick was still a great one when ST was with us. Nobody could throw deep on us with Area 51 back there. We would have had the greatest safety tandem in the NFL for years to come. Landry was also considered one of the most NFL-ready, and was the first rookie draft pick to start from day 1.

However, the fact we already had ST, making SS not the top priority, is a valid point. Some could argue that Jamaal Anderson or Okoye, both taken right after, would have been a better pick. It's a valid point, though I don't agree with it, I won't argue against it any further than I already have. I'd have been fine with either of those picks as well. However, it doesn't mean you can fault Cerrato for not taking DL here, because it was a great pick regardless, IMO.

We didn't pick again until the 5th.

2008:

It's been gone over ad nauseum. We traded down and landed 3 2nd rounder.

pick 34: Devin Thomas. Highest rated WR on our board, supposed to go in 1st round. Next DL isn't taken until pick 47, Trevor Laws. We had pick 48, and had brought in Laws for a private workout.

pick 48: Fred Davis. I think Laws was our guy, and when he got taken we opted for Davis. Calais Campbell, Quentin Groves, and Jason Jones were the DL taken shortly after. I didn't like Calias, apparently neither did our coaches who knew him, Groves wasn't a fit on the DL for us IMO, but I don;t understand about Jason Jones. He got taken at 54, so maybe he wasn't graded as an early 2nd rounder, maybe Tenn. reached on him when he was supposed to be early 3rd, I don't know.

pick 51: Malcom Kelly. The team was real impressed with him, and nobody thought he would drop so far (nor Sweed for that matter). Calais was taken the pick before, but Jason Jones was still available. Kelly would have made more sense, IMO, where Davis was, and then Jason Jones after is what I would have liked. However, our redzone offense has been terrible, and Davis was the consensus #1-2 TE. I really don't know enough about Jason Jones to say whether or not he would have been worth it when we were picking, as I don't really remember hearing about him until after the draft.

rd 3, pick 96: Comp pick, Chad Rinehart. Next DL isn't taken until several picks into the 4th. DEs Jeremy Thompson and William Hayes.

So really, it isn't that we have missed out on a bunch of good DL early, or even ignored it. Really the problem has been not having many early day picks. A lot of that happened under Gibbs, and we all know how he preferred vets to rookies.

[rd421]

Honestly we have got to get a playmaker whatever position it is in...If we draft OT just for the sake of doing it and there is a game changing lb or de I will be livid

[TheLongshot]

So, I see people are slamming Cerrato cuz he hasn't drafted a DL high in a while. Anybody care to look at which DL were available when we picked? Technically, this past draft was the first one here where Vinny was in charge. However, if you want to pretend Cerrato had more say than Gibbs, then I'll go back to '04. I won't look at Spurrier because he was in charge then, as evidenced by us taking Taylor Jacobs when Vinny wanted Osi. Heck, Spurrier had us take 50/50 when Snyder wanted Santana.

Surprisingly, you got a lot wrong here. I think Vinny does count for '02-'03 for a lot of things, partially because Ramsey was definitely Vinny's choice, since Spurrier initially didn't want much to do with him.

Also, it was Marty who selected 50/50.

But the point stands: I have yet to see an example by anyone of a high round DL that would have been a better choice than the player we selected. Course, part of the problem is that we haven't had that many high picks under Snyder...

[rd421]

Surprisingly, you got a lot wrong here. I think Vinny does count for '02-'03 for a lot of things, partially because Ramsey was definitely Vinny's choice, since Spurrier initially didn't want much to do with him.

Also, it was Marty who selected 50/50.

But the point stands: I have yet to see an example by anyone of a high round DL that would have been a better choice than the player we selected. Course, part of the problem is that we haven't had that many high picks under Snyder...

I still feel like ramsey got a raw deal here...he could have played if they would have ever given him a chance or some confidence...He had a ROCKET

[Braxford]

Trade down for more picks, unless Orakpo is there at 13.

[DiscoBob]

18. New York Giants: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland. The Giants love freakish athletes. See: Jacobs, Brandon; Kiwanuka, Mathias; Tuck, Justin. They've spent a good amount of currency on wide receivers over the past few drafts, picking up Sinorice Moss, Steve Smith, and Mario Manningham in the process. The problem is that only Smith has made any sort of impact so far. While Manningham is only in his second season, Moss is likely to be cut during training camp.

Heyward-Bey showed off his impressive athletic ability at the Combine, running a 40 that was timed as fast as 4.25 (by the excellent nfldraftscout.com) despite weighing 210 pounds. At 6-2, he lacks Plaxico Burress' size, but he's got nearly 30 pounds on Domenik Hixon and profiles as a better downfield threat than does Hixon. He's also got great body control to adapt to off-target throws, something he'd see a fair amount of as a Giants wide receiver.

Thought this part was funny

[elkabong82]

Surprisingly, you got a lot wrong here. I think Vinny does count for '02-'03 for a lot of things, partially because Ramsey was definitely Vinny's choice, since Spurrier initially didn't want much to do with him.

Also, it was Marty who selected 50/50.

But the point stands: I have yet to see an example by anyone of a high round DL that would have been a better choice than the player we selected. Course, part of the problem is that we haven't had that many high picks under Snyder...

It ain't easy to remeber those earlier years, lol.

I know Vinny had influence, but Spurriers teams were mostly comprised of Spurrier guys from FL.

My bad on Gardner. I thought he was '02. I actually didn't know that Ramsey was actually Vinny's choice. That's pretty ironic given that some of the people who defend Ramsey to this day absolutely loathe Vinny.

But, instead of Ramsey we could have had Kalimba Edwards, taken just 3 picks later. I've brought that up before. But we did really need a QB at that time. The next QB wasn't taken until round 3, with McCown. Carr and Harrington were taken in the top of the 1st. Just an awful year for QBs in the draft, except for Garrard in the 4th.

I've done this research before, and the only other solid DL we could have had was Osi, but we took Taylor Jacobs. I've read Vinny wanted Osi, and Spurrier obviously wanted the practice warrior.

But yes, it is painfully obvious from the few picks we've had early that lack of picks, and not "ignoring positions," has been the detriment.

[Gibbsisgod2006]

I thought Danny boy wanted Ramsey in that draft but it does sound like Vinny's mo when it comes to drafting QB's just take a look at Jim Drunkenmiller. What about Gholston in the 6th in the 06 draft. What about Vinny drafting Bryant Young and Dana Stublefield when he was with San Fran? Hind sight is always 20/20.

[TheLongshot]

I know Vinny had influence, but Spurriers teams were mostly comprised of Spurrier guys from FL.

I'd say that Vinny had more say in Spurrier's second year, but he probably mostly ran the draft both years. Part of the problem was that there wasn't a clear chain of command under Spurrier. Who was in charge? I have no clue.

My bad on Gardner. I thought he was '02. I actually didn't know that Ramsey was actually Vinny's choice. That's pretty ironic given that some of the people who defend Ramsey to this day absolutely loathe Vinny.

I actually thought it was a pretty shrewd move at the time. We needed a QB, but instead of reaching for Ramsey, we trade back a couple times and pick him at the end of the round. Too bad we butchered those extra picks, tho.

But, instead of Ramsey we could have had Kalimba Edwards, taken just 3 picks later. I've brought that up before. But we did really need a QB at that time. The next QB wasn't taken until round 3, with McCown. Carr and Harrington were taken in the top of the 1st. Just an awful year for QBs in the draft, except for Garrard in the 4th.

I'm waiting for the "but we had Sage Rosenfels" people to show up.

I've done this research before, and the only other solid DL we could have had was Osi, but we took Taylor Jacobs. I've read Vinny wanted Osi, and Spurrier obviously wanted the practice warrior.

Actually, at the time I think it was Mike Doss that was the guy Vinny wanted. I don't know if he wanted Osi or not.

Course, we could have also gotten solid but not spectacular linemen like Chris Kelsay or Dewayne White. For every Anquan Boldin there is a Bethel Johnson.

[Gibbsisgod2006]

Yeah thats right Vinny wanted Mike Doss. You know what Doss and Gafney have in common. They are both out of the League. So really it didn't matter who we drafted.

[earl]

First let me say i am crossing my fingers smith falls to us. but if he's not then i think we should trade down. trade down IF AND ONLY IF you can pick up more picks (preferably a 2nd) and you are still in a position to pick up a LB in the 1st. Looking at most mocks, curry, and the 3 USC boys are the only LB's projected in the first. then Lauranitis in the 2nd and then the LB's disappear from the mocks. We obviously need a LB. If we trade down and don't get a LB it will be a catastrophe. I can't imagine the FO will do this. I also think the FO has an LB as our #1 need. What i don't want to happen is we stay at 13 and draft a LB. We won't have another pick for a good OL in the 1st or 2nd and i think all of the LB's other then Curry is a reach @ 13.

if smith is gone and we can't trade down, then damn! i don't know what to do. Oher i guess, or malaluga. both are a reach at 13.

[TheLongshot]

Yeah thats right Vinny wanted Mike Doss. You know what Doss and Gafney have in common. They are both out of the League. So really it didn't matter who we drafted.

I don't know what Jabar Gafney has anything to do with anything, but the main thing that has short-circuited his career was a severe ACL injury. BTW, he was on the Bengals roster last year.

[Gibbsisgod2006]

I am sorry I meant Taylor Jacobs I got confused.

[TheLongshot]

I am sorry I meant Taylor Jacobs I got confused.

I knew who you were talking about.

Point is, Mike Doss has been far more productive in this league than Jacobs, even with the injury.

[Superbowl Mohawk]

"Hail." To take ANDRE SMITH with our 13th overall selection would be a very, very poor pick. Another person and player who believes they are so talented, and better than everyone that they have a poor work ethic. This is a person who will be cracking jokes and stuffing his face before sitting down to do bench presses. Instead of white gripping powder, it will be white doughnut powder coming off his clapping hands as he blubbers backwards to bench. This is the guy you want to GAMBLE on!?! You don't gamble on your first round pick, you try to land someone you hope will start and be solid for ten years. At worst they will be a very very solid number 2 if they dont live up to their potential. You gamble on a guy in the 5th, 6th, 7th round. He has bust written all over him. We see this every year and the results are always the same. The guys who screw up and cant even handle the combine are the guys who always fall flat. He's not a smart guy, he's not a tough guy, he's a guy with a lot of talent at the COLLEGE level. Please let some other team make this mistake, not us. Not on a gamble. "Stay thirsty my friends!" 'Hail."