My argument for why the Redskins should draft Percy Harvin at #13 (1600 words, LONG)

[Joncevensen]

Mods: I worked diligently on this post so that it was worth becoming its own thread. My history shows I do not make silly threads. If you feel this should have been folded into another thread, just PM me to let me know and I apologize in advance.

Fellow members,

This week I came up with a crazy idea that I thought had me channeling Matt Millen as a GM, the Redskins should take Percy Harvin in the draft. I tried to convince myself that I had gone insane, that we should take a tackle or defensive lineman. So I looked at how Harvin would fit in to the offense, convinced I could find a way to prove him to be a waste. Instead I have come to the conclusion that my idea was actually logical. Below is my logic, it is very long and drawn out. Read it, consider it, and remember that I expect us next year to run the ball 55% of the time since we were successful in 2008 when we ran the ball.

Good hunting,

Joncevensen

Why the Redskins should take Percy Harvin

1. The running game

a. Portis is one of the greatest backs in franchise history, potentially a Hall of Fame career.

i. But he has had to bulk up to take the beating Gibbs required of his backs.

1. Ex. John Riggins longest run each season was greater than 31 yards only three times in 9 seasons, and only one of those three long runs went for a touchdown. (source NFL.com stats)

ii. Portis is still the #1 back we need for 15-20 carries, but we need someone with home run capability.

1. Betts is not this back.

a. Betts offers us 5-10 rushes a game for 30-50 yards. A break from Portis, someone who can run into defenders and tire them out.

b. If anyone has played, or understands, rugby (sorry, but I’m playing for my college) Betts is our big guy who may not be fast, but you have him just run into the defense ten times, they start to feel it and then it gets easier for the big play to happen.

When I describe Betts as a bruising runner, I look at all the times his runs end with him running into linebackers. He doesn't break off the big plays, but he gives us a competent back up, who we use two ways.

1. He keeps CP fresh

2. Every run he does where he hits a linebacker, is going to reduce the defense while CP does not have to absorb that same contact.

---> my evidence

week 2 through the rams game

Betts ran the ball 7.4 times a game for a 31.2 yards per game

And...in our big upsets over Philly and Dallas, Betts carried the ball 9 and 11 times respectively, and Portis delivered amazing 145 yard, and 121 yard performances. This was a product of Betts taking those nine and 11 plays off CP, so the defense was on their 30th running play when CP was only on carry 21, that...is a huge difference. CP is in the zone, the defense feels like they've had almost an entire games worth of rushing plays.

c. That big play maybe Portis for a big run, but those big runs cannot end after 40 yards at the sideline, those big plays need to end in a touchdown because the running back can turn the corner on the safety chasing him down.

2. Rock Cartwright is not this back

a. Rock should get the ball a couple times each game.

b. He provides us with a third running back that is trustworthy and sneaky. It’s very hard to find a running back that small sometimes in the midst of all the bodies.

c. Rock gives us potentially 3-5 carries, more if necessary due to injury, for 10-25 yards.

b. Alright, How would Harvin improve the offense?

i. He gives us a Home run threat obviously

ii. He gives us a legitimate third down back

1. How many times have we seen a 3rd and long where it was prudent just to run the draw play and pick up half the yardage for field position. Harvin would get those first five or six yards and then take advantage of the space in front of him, worth an extra 1 or 2 first downs each game. That’s a drive saved a game, and probably worth 3 points every 2 or three games. This is not perfect statistics, but that can be the difference in one game each year.

2. His receiving ability out of the backfield would gives us the biggest RB receiving threat since Larry Centers.

a. Everyone remember 1999? We’re playing SF for the division title Week 16. Monday Night Football, we go to OT. Brad Johnson finds Larry Centers in the flat and Centers goes to the house 20 something yards for a division title.

b. We have not had that threat since then, and it’s a vital one for us if we want to protect Campbell.

i. In Pass Protection, running backs either block or go out on a pattern.

ii. Sending Harvin out on a pattern on third down would require a linebacker to go with him, or for the defense to play zone. It would restrict the number of defenders rushing the quarterback – critical as we need to rebuild the OL (yes, I’ll get to that). I think that as we are structured right now, with a strong team, but with a need to rebuild the lines due to age, the only way we can stay competitive is to rebuild the lines over the course of a couple of years, so our pass protection will not only come from our lines, but who the defense has to account for in the immediate vicinity of the line of scrimmage which would be a running back going out on a pattern.

iii. Okay, what sort of production would we expect from him, and why would you invest a first round pick in him for it? No one really knows how to grade Reggie Bush after all since he is not a 1,000 yard RB but was a high pick.

1. I’d be looking for Harvin to step in immediately and give us 12-15 touches a game between receiving, punt returns, and rushing.

2. In those 12-15 touches, I would expect 80 – 120 all purpose yards on average. I break that down to 25 return yards, 40 yards of receiving, 40 yards rushing. Completely reasonable if you assume he actually returns (not fair catches) 2-3 punts a game, catches 3-4 passes, and runs the ball 3-5 times. This would vary of course based on whether or not Harvin had a big play or not, but I’m just thinking in terms of averages. I would expect Harvin to contribute 1200 yards a season which is 1st round production.

3. In future years, I would expect his role to change based on where his strengths develop.

iv. But Harvin is built like a receiver, and you have him initially as a running back?

1. Yes, but as I said above, Harvin’s role would evolve – probably into being Santana’s successor in 2-3 years.

2. I’m not saying we run him into Grady Jackson like CP, but that we use him as a hybrid weapon on sweeps, end arounds, stretch plays, long deep routes out of the backfield (imagine pierce trying to keep up with Harvin as he streaks down the field between the hashmarks as moss and thomas split the safeties with corner routes)

v. What about Betts & Rock in this arrangement?

1. Betts remains as our hard runner, think about using him like the Giants like to use Jacobs, early and often.

2. Rock remains our special teams star and contributes when there is an injury or Betts needs a breather.

c. How I see the Redskins rushing offense in 2009 w/ Harvin

i. Looking at 2008, we won when we run the ball. We all know the stats about when CP goes over the century mark how we tend to win. Well, we need to remember who we are, we are the Redskins. We like our games in the rain, in the cold, and we like them won in trenches. We like to have the big plays, but we set up the big plays with our running game.

ii. In 2009

1. Use Betts every third series (or third drive if Portis catches fire) to get physical with the defense.

2. Portis does what CP does. He gets in there throughout the entire game and runs the ball off tackle eighteen or twenty times as the All-Pro he is.

3. Harvin gets a couple opportunities in the first half, but then gets more involved in the second half when the defense is tired.

4. We would have our own version of Earth, Wind, and Fire – and since we love to the run the ball, I think we need it.

If we draft OL instead of Harvin, I see us trying to rebuild an OL in one offseason by replacing both Jansen/Heyer and Kendall (you only draft T that high, never G) which is very difficult. It would be like having a hole open in the Hoover Dam, and refusing to generate less electricity (even if you can see power Vegas at 90% capacity) just because you think you can go 100% with the hole. You only would end up destroying the entire dam. We saw that this season when we did not compensate for injuries on the OL by having extra blockers, Campbell got the Ramsey treatment.

Alright, now I will explain why I have suggested we pick another skill player instead of going to the lines.

Let’s look at our OL

Samuels and Thomas remain starting caliber.

Kendall and Jansen need to be replaced, but Jansen is too expensive to cut, so I say we either start him or Heyer (controversial, yes, but if we want to be good every year, we can’t fix everything immediately and Heyer is competent)

Rabach I don’t like, but can tolerate for another year.

I say we play Rinehart at LG (I know we’re not use to putting a green rookie or 2nd year into the starting position who isn’t a first round pick and feeling good about it, but we need to be able to get use to it if we want to be perennial contenders). And pick up a developmental OL in the 5th or 6th round.

I'm not completely sold on Heyer either, but the front office and coaching staff better be since we've invested two seasons in him and he's already started 12 games. In the NFL, if you give a project to your OL coach and say, over the next two seasons, he will start 12 games, and play in 21, not including preseason, then I expect NFL caliber, not necessarily all-pro or top 16 ROT in the league, but NFL caliber in general play.

Also, everyone was talking about Heyer positively when he beat out Jansen beginning of the year. I think at the end of the year when he had to play LT, (a bit of an adjustment I would say based on the different pay scales for LT and RT) we saw that he had been at RT all year and had been groomed for that position and not for LT all season.

If we are to become a perenially elite team, we need to develop players like Heyer so that they can start for us at some positions. If I have to choose between Heyer at RT or spending a 1st round pick on a RT just because we are not patient Heyer, who the coaching staff thought was better than Jansen Week 1, why waste the 13th overall pick on a RT because we saw that Heyer was not prepared to play LT as a part of a OL that was decimated by the end of the season.

DL

That 3rd round pick goes to the DL.

Barring someone dropping from the first round all the way into the third that we just cannot justify passing, Smoot was like that (two thumbs up) as was Thomas (yea…so far so bad), barring that player getting to us, we use that 3rd round pick on a DE.

I am of the belief that if we spend in FA, we spend on Haynesworth or a decent DE.

I resign Golston for his motor, Montgomery for his size if we cannot sign Haynesworth (and hope that he makes a major stride in 2009)

I cut Taylor and write him off.

Starting DL I would like: Carter/rookie DE (rotating), Griffin, Haynesworth/Golston/Montgomery (in order of preference), Evans

Alright, I have made my case. I thought it was a bad idea when I first thought of it, but then I thought it out and like the idea of taking Harvin in the 1st Round.

For those that will point to last year's draft as to why this idea is just not feasible, I point to my points about using Harvin as a receiver out of the backfield in a reggie bush/larry centers mold, so I don't think it would stunt thomas and kelly's development. In fact I think it would enhance it since the defense would have to account for Harvin's speed.

Eviscerate or Support me, I’m hoping most of all to encourage discussion about how to improve our beloved team. That I think was three plays from an amazing season (Kendall as a RB, that backup Dallas TE pushing off of Horton on that 4th quarter TD pass [i sat in the end zone that game and saw the push], Sellers playing hot potato]) And I think we’re close to being a memorable team again, but I want us to build for more than just one run, I want to build a team that goes to multiple Super Bowls and Conference Championships. So please comment after reading.

[TheGoodBits]

I admit I didn't read the whole thing, but I don't think you're crazy. It would be nice to have a young player like Harvin.

Unfortunately, this year we NEED an OL at #13 just too bad to think about it. That's my thoughts on the situation anyway.

[styx491]

I like your point about building the o-line bit by bit every season, but we also need the depth that a first round draft pick would provide us. If anyone in your line goes down, its all over, like this season. And honestly I don't expect Jansen to last again the whole season. You have a great alternate idea though, and I really commend your support, but I believe we need that first round offensive lineman this year more than Percy Harvin. We can do some of the same things with DT, which we have been trying with some success this year.

[nehneh]

i dont care who you have in your backfield.. without a functional oline, you wont be able to move the ball offensively.. it all begins and ends in the trenches

[Joncevensen]

I like your point about building the o-line bit by bit every season, but we also need the depth that a first round draft pick would provide us. If anyone in your line goes down, its all over, like this season. And honestly I don't expect Jansen to last again the whole season.

Completely valid points, I would look for an undrafted free agent, and that 5th Round pick to become two back lineman. I think Jansen can back up Heyer or vice versa. Geseinger (or however his name is spelled) can be the back up center. I would be looking for a 5th Round tackle and an undrafted guard who our scouting tells us is a fast learner, and was accomplished in college, I don't want a physically talented project, I would rather have the undersized guard who will go in and know the plays and be able to give us a quality couple weeks in case of an injury.

[[[ghost]]]

I appreciate your research.

but we can't expect to solve our problems by adding a playmaker to a team with an old OL.

[SeanTaylorisPiamp]

I do agree that it is a good idea to rebuild the O line one piece at a time. I think we should use our first pick on a Defensive tackle, or an Offensive tackle to help the rebuilding. One of your reasons for taking Harvey is his playmaking ability returning punts, but I wish the Redskins would use what they already have and put DeAngelo Hall back there.

[Jimbo]

I appreciate the time you put into this and I agree Harvin is a special player however, Vinny is under the gun and if he doesn't find a way to strengthen the lines it could very well be his head. Drafting Harvin after taking Thomas, Kelly and Davis last year would not only draw comparisons to Matt Millen, it would tie up WAY too much money in our WR corps.

The idea of a home run threat is attractive but we just have too many other holes to fill.

[Oldskool]

So who's going to block for the fragile, new smurf when he runs?

Who's going to protect Campbell when we have yet another sub 6 foot receiver running routes that can't be seen cos a 6'+ LB/DL is chasing our QB?

Harvin is a luxury for a team that can afford a player like that with durability issues.

No thanks.

[ABSTRACT]

We already have a Percy Harvin and his name is Malcom kelly. We can put Malcom Kelly, Santana Moss, Deangelo Hall, Ladell Batts, or Rock at Kick Returner.

Ladell and Rock are very solid running backs that can move the chains with a younger/agile O-Line. We have a 3 headed monster at RB and don't even know it.

RedSkinz Org did say that they were going to search for a ScatBack/KR...IDK why but I really hope they do not make a move like that.

[Renegade7]

He'll just get smacked in the backfield just like Portis if we don't fix the o-line. A for effort, but hell no.

[CRobi21]

Like others have said. A well put argument, but there are too many holes that need to be filled first.

[Joncevensen]

We already have a Percy Harvin and his name is Malcom kelly.

While I believe Kelly will be a good quality receiver, I do not consider his 4.7 speed comparable to the effect Harvin would have coming out of the backfield with his sub 4.3 speed.

[CRobi21]

While I believe Kelly will be a good quality receiver, I do not consider his 4.7 speed comparable to the effect Harvin would have coming out of the backfield with his sub 4.3 speed.

I agree here. MK wasn't the best choice as a comparison to Percy.

Haha.

[Joncevensen]

So who's going to block for the fragile, new smurf when he runs?

Who's going to protect Campbell when we have yet another sub 6 foot receiver running routes that can't be seen cos a 6'+ LB/DL is chasing our QB?

Harvin is a luxury for a team that can afford a player like that with durability issues.

No thanks.

I think an OL of Samuels, Rinehart, Rabach, Thomas, Heyer/Jansen with depth from a 5th round pick, Geseinger (sorry bout the spelling) at Center, and maybe a minor FA signing would give us a good OL if we are willing to accept that in order to be a competitive team next year we cannot doing extreme home makeover: Redskins OL edition. Bringing two starters onto an OL in one season can be dangerous - protections are more likely to break down due to less chemistry.

I think a combination of one person (Rinehart for Kendall) turnover this offseason on the Offensive line, combined with the addition of a backfield HR threat to draw away blitzing defenders would improve our pass protection immensely.

[terpskins10]

I read it all and it looks like you put a lot of work and thought into it, and you almost have me convinced.

The biggest problem I have is that you have Betts characterized as this huge, wear down the defense, bounce off tacklers kind of guy. He's no bigger than CP is and he runs much softer.

[[[ghost]]]

We already have a Percy Harvin and his name is Malcom kelly. We can put Malcom Kelly, Santana Moss, Deangelo Hall, Ladell Batts, or Rock at Kick Returner.

Ladell and Rock are very solid running backs that can move the chains with a younger/agile O-Line. We have a 3 headed monster at RB and don't even know it.

RedSkinz Org did say that they were going to search for a ScatBack/KR...IDK why but I really hope they do not make a move like that.

:rotflmao:

Malcolm Kelly- returning kicks? Harvin and Kelly are NOTHING alike. Harvin is a tiny speedster. Kelly is a bigger target.

WE have a chain mover in Portis. What we need is a TD threat. Someone who scares defenses. We're a very slow team. We need to get rid of Betts and acquire a speedster.

[Oldskool]

I think an OL of Samuels, Rinehart, Rabach, Thomas, Heyer/Jansen with depth from a 5th round pick, Geseinger (sorry bout the spelling) at Center, and maybe a minor FA signing would give us a good OL if we are willing to accept that in order to be a competitive team next year we cannot doing extreme home makeover: Redskins OL edition. Bringing two starters onto an OL in one season can be dangerous - protections are more likely to break down due to less chemistry.

I think a combination of one person (Rinehart for Kendall) turnover this offseason on the Offensive line, combined with the addition of a backfield HR threat to draw away blitzing defenders would improve our pass protection immensely.

Sorry but you're quite mistaken if you think a platoon of Heyer/Jensen can suffice this year at ROT. Jansen can no longer pass block. Heyer has not shown the ability to run block efficiently. The fact that early in the year we were running to Samuels/Kendall side of the ball instead of the better run blocker Thomas is proof of that.

5th round picks are generally not starters. What this team needs more than another project player with no real designation is to solidify the D and the O lines. Only after that is done, can you use picks on the Harvin's of this world. No successful team builds around gadget/hybrid players while both lines are aging and inefficient.

[SirClintonPortis]

A WR isn't going to double as a RB. This isn't Madden. Speed backs are dime a dozen. Ahmad Bradshaw is a seventh-rounder. Sproles is a fourth rounder. Derrick Ward is a 7th rounder. There's no need to waste a first round pick over something easily replaceable.

Also, are 5th round O-linemen and those from UDFA reliable sources? No, they're all prospects, and mostly dim ones.

[terpskins10]

A WR isn't going to double as a RB. This isn't Madden. Speed backs are dime a dozen. Ahmad Bradshaw is a seventh-rounder. Sproles is a fourth rounder. Derrick Ward is a 7th rounder. There's no need to waste a first round pick over something easily replaceable.

Also, are 5th round O-linemen and those from UDFA reliable sources? No, they're all prospects, and mostly dim ones.

While I agree with you, Harvin played more RB at Florida than receiver, IIRC.

[SirClintonPortis]

While I agree with you, Harvin played more RB at Florida than receiver, IIRC.

Well, I don't follow college ball, so I'll retract that ill-conceived point. If the man wants to extend his career though...the choice is obvious.

[Joncevensen]

Well, I don't follow college ball, so I'll retract that ill-conceived point. If the man wants to extend his career though...the choice is obvious.

I think Harvin eventually will transition to being a full time WR, but right now, he has a talent operating from the backfield that any NFL team would be foolish not to take advantage of.

[Spartacus87]

Main reason why we shouldn't draft Harvin, or even consider it:

He's a project receiver, especially for the 13th overall pick.

Florida's offense isn't pro-style, and Harvin doesn't run more than 3 or 4 routes the vast majority of the time; his routes consist of really shallow crossing routes, a go route, a hitch, and some bubble screens.

If people are impatient now towards Devin Thomas and how long he's taking to pick up the offense and his responsibilities as a raw prospect coming out of college, they'd be going insane with Harvin, especially for taking him so high in the draft.

He'd be solid for end arounds, go routes, maybe some tricks out of the Wild Cat (which we don't run anyway and I don't think that'll show up too much next year), but overall he'd take some time to really develop to make an impact receiving. Especially while we have Kelly and Thomas to keep working on and find out what we have there. He'd be a pretty good return man though.

Bottom line- he's more of an athlete than a true receiver coming out, and that's where his stock is. We don't have the luxury of drafting an athlete at #13 overall when we need help on the lines ASAP, and we just invested two 2nd round picks on receivers last year.

Appreciable effort on the initial post though. 1,000 times better than the "we should draft Harvin ive watched florida this year he's a beast :notworthy" kind of threads that tend to pop up by people promoting their favorite targets.

[Spartacus87]

While I agree with you, Harvin played more RB at Florida than receiver, IIRC.

He did- he had about 190 carries to 130 receptions.

But that's more of a product of the type of scheme Florida runs with their offense, it's not like he was actually pounding it between the tackles. His runs were off option plays, traps, and counters set up by motion prior to the snap so when he was handed the ball, it was with wide open running lanes straight ahead of him.

Harvin ain't built to be a running back in the NFL, he'd get murdered.

[wilco_holland]

I'm a huge Gators fan and I believe that Harvin could bring a extra dimension to any off. His recieving/rushing ability make him very special.

But I think he isn't going to be a top 15 pick (because of his height and duribility), so if we could trade down (if the 3 top OT's are of the board) and end up whit a late first round pick + a extra 3/4 round pick...it would be nice, because I don't see a lot of late first round players that are interesting for us.