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Could McCain lose his home state?


Cooked Crack

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Democrats are circulating a poll showing Sen. John McCain losing ground in his home state of Arizona, an ominous sign for his beleaguered campaign as state after state turns blue.

Project New West, which aims to build the Democratic Party in the Intermountain West, says the Republican leads Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) in the Grand Canyon State, 48 percent to 44 percent.

The pollsters call that a “dramatic shift” from a survey they took in mid-September, which had McCain ahead by 14 points, 54 percent to 40 percent.

“Bad News for McCain: Presidential Contest in Arizona has Closed in Arizona And McCain Now Leads By Just 4 Points,” says a memo from pollsters Andrew Myers of Myers Research and Strategic Services and Lisa Grove of Grove Research.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14942.html

The new AZ Rasmussen poll has McCain at +5. One month ago he was @ +21. I don't think Obama will take Arizona but it would be sweet if he could. His message is definitely resonating out west. Obama is just a state flipping machine.

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Doesn't he have a big lead in CO?

He has roughly a 7 to 8 point lead in Colorado, same for Virginia, in Florida he is slightly ahead but not by more than 3 or so points. I think Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa and Nevada flip for sure. I think there is a very good chance for North Carolina to flip, and Ohio and Florida are both leaning Obama. Missouri and Indiana are pretty much even right now.

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I doubt it and I would hate for him to lose Arizona. Senator McCain is an honorable man and doesn't deserve to be embarassed. I just believe he is not the right man at this time.

I feel bad for McCain, but I think it would be good for America if the electorate taught him a lesson.

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I was out in Arizona just before the Republican convention. McCain had to cancel a fund raiser with President Bush in Phoenix due to lack of interest.... They moved it from the Sun's stadium to a private residence.

I think McCain could definitely loose Arizona, I also think McCain could loose his re-election bid next time he runs for the senate.

The one thing McCain had going for him was his common sense, good judgement and decency. I think he's lost all of those assets in the last few years.

McCain made a concious decision to turn away from heart felt beliefs and the countries interests in exchange for the Republican nomination. The country may never forgive him.

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what lesson does he need to be taught??

A number of them, actually... things like relying on negative campaigning, divisiveness, misrepresentation, promoting ignorance of the electorate, pandering, lacking clear plans, lowering quality of public discourse, demonizing opponents and the media, putting politics ahead of country, etc.

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It's more like the RNC needs to be taught a lesson. McCain has played the hand he was dealt - any other Republican would be flailing much worse, IMO.

Good point on the RNC, but I think there are plenty of better ways a Republican candidate could have played the hand he was dealt. McCain could have gone with a positive, centrist message focused on responsibility and he could even be critical of some aspects of the Bush administration as appropriate. Instead he decided to run a negative campaign questioning Obama's character that instead destroyed his own.

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