Malcom Kelly Draft Stock Dropping Big - Still Slow as of 4/16(merged)

[MaN-BeAsT21]

Trading our spot would be a great option , but would be too hard to predict what we will receive for the 21st pick.... but Kentwan Balmer's stock has been rising as of late , as well as Phillip Merling ... I find our DT can be improved but with the youth implement as of late with Montgomery , Golston , Alexander rotating , a depth pick like Dre Moore in the 2nd round or Trevor Laws would be great , so i would tend towards Phillip Merling who's combination of size and speed and his high motor , aswell as his run stopping capabilities is exactly what we we need on the DLINE to match AC99's pass rushing skills.

[Smoot Point Really]

I'm assuming you also don't want Kelly. Check out his highlights. Half of them are of him catching a ball and getting tackled immediately. I've watched his highlights from his 06 and 07 years and I'm confused as to where this idea that he is some sort of tackle breaking YAC monster came from. He didn't break many tackles at all, and he isn't even very elusive.

Yes, I don't want either... I think equal or better WRs can be had in later rounds. WR in the 1st round isn't good value for money in this draft. BTW, for how well Calvin Johnson was in College, it still only equated to 2-3 catches per game last year and no playoffs for the Lions. That doesn't mean that I wouldn't have taken Calvin Johnson, but it just means that people overvalue the WR position and "reach" for players because they are tall. There is more inherent risk in picking a WR, especially this year with such mediocre talent at the top and depth throughout the draft. BTW, if Marcus Monk falls to the fourth round or Doucet/Nelson fall to the 3rd, wouldn't that be better value for money than taking Kelly/Sweed in the 1st or 2nd?

[Smoot Point Really]

Hey, you have got to be a TROLL. You are the biggest BSer on this forum.

You found me out... I'm a troll... and a BS'er... Here are the facts:

1) We don't know that Malcolm Kelly was the only one who protested, we only know that he got the press.

2) We really don't know if Malcolm Kelly was the only one affected by the switch, but since he didn't run the 40 at the combine it definitely had more of an impact on him than others who ran the 40 at the combine.

3) The only thing we do know is that the venue was switched, and that alone is a thing we shouldn't overlook. I've never heard of other schools doing this... Is it because nobody else complains? Is it because this is just something that schools don't do? IMO, if schools did this then more players would be complaining.

I'm defending Malcolm Kelly's stance against his school and nothing more. You have repeatedly implied that I'm taking sides for Kelly as a draft pick or a football player... I couldn't care less. I hope we don't draft him or any WR in the 1st round.

YES, I am bias towards Sweed. I have said this many times. And what is your BIAS? Are you that gentil that you can't accept someone elses suggestion. I will state this for you with my BIAS opinion: Sweed, in my opinion, is the only first round legitimate pick of all the WRs. You disagree, fine. But this my opinion.

You've made your bias quite clear. Having a bias in favor of Sweed obviously taints your arguments against Kelly, even to the point of continually disparaging his character (which isn't perfect, but I'm guessing Limas Sweed isn't a saint either). In this case, having a bias isn't a "good thing".

If you have gone to the websites I mentioned for you to look at in order to judge Limas and come up with your opinion, fine.

We should just agree to disagree, don't you think?

Actually, since I'm a TROLL... I'll disagree about this too.

[Forever21]

That being said, add that in with the questions about his knees, it isn't good for your draft stock.

Jason

you're right about that.

The thing that worries me most about kelly is his obvious immaturity based on how he reacted to his 40 times. I know that every player is concerned with money but they way he whined and ****ed about his times costing him money is a big concern about his priorities to me. That being said if he drops to us in the 2nd round...I'd probably want us to grab him, his talent makes it a good value pick.

[mcarey032]

Yes, I don't want either... I think equal or better WRs can be had in later rounds. WR in the 1st round isn't good value for money in this draft. BTW, for how well Calvin Johnson was in College, it still only equated to 2-3 catches per game last year and no playoffs for the Lions. That doesn't mean that I wouldn't have taken Calvin Johnson, but it just means that people overvalue the WR position and "reach" for players because they are tall. There is more inherent risk in picking a WR, especially this year with such mediocre talent at the top and depth throughout the draft. BTW, if Marcus Monk falls to the fourth round or Doucet/Nelson fall to the 3rd, wouldn't that be better value for money than taking Kelly/Sweed in the 1st or 2nd?

It really can be hard to predict who will become a good wideout and who won't. I thought a few years ago that David Terrell should have been great. He seemed to have the size and hands to be a good WR. That being said he was out of the league with injuries and inconsistent play. Then you take a guy like Marvin Harrison. Everyone coming out thought he would be good, but nobody thought that he would be the HOF player that he is today. It is really hard to see the great WRs coming. With the exception of Moss, receivers like Terrell Owens, T.J. Houshmanzadeh, and Chad Johnson were all selected in the later rounds. We will probably find a receiver in the later rounds. There is no need this year to pick someone who is not a lock and I think that DL is a little more pressing need right now considering we play in a division where the QBs are among the elite. We need pressure on these guys.

[dfbovey]

BTW, if Marcus Monk falls to the fourth round or Doucet/Nelson fall to the 3rd, wouldn't that be better value for money than taking Kelly/Sweed in the 1st or 2nd?

This is a question only time would tell because it would be based on their professional production. IMO Sweed and Kelly are much more capable than the other players you listed. Pass on them just because you think someone like Jordy Nelson is equal and you could miss out on a special cornerstone type player.

There is potential value at every position later in the draft at every position, you shouldn't shy away from taking a top notch prospect for the sake of maybe getting value later. Just take the best player available each round at a position of need.

[dfbovey]

It really can be hard to predict who will become a good wideout and who won't. I thought a few years ago that David Terrell should have been great. He seemed to have the size and hands to be a good WR.

You also can't judge any single player on their first year in the league. For example Calvin Johnson... he didn't set the league on fire his rookie season but that doesn't mean that he won't for years to come.

[Smoot Point Really]

This is a question only time would tell because it would be based on their professional production. IMO Sweed and Kelly are much more capable than the other players you listed. Pass on them just because you think someone like Jordy Nelson is equal and you could miss out on a special cornerstone type player.

There is potential value at every position later in the draft at every position, you shouldn't shy away from taking a top notch prospect for the sake of maybe getting value later. Just take the best player available each round at a position of need.

Yes, but the issue here is that there is perceived depth at WR and similar players can be had later. The risk/reward doesn't justify spending a 1st rounder on a receiver. You are talking about gambling on one player/position, whereas I'm talking about maximizing value of every pick to bolster multiple positions. You can't fall in love with someone so much that you'll forget that there are 7 rounds and a bunch of other good players to be had. In the 1st two rounds, you might be able to take a top 5 DB/OL/DL/WR/etc... However, there are 10 WRs on the board that all have similar risks/rewards and it's likely that three of them can be had on day 2... BTW, there are two WRs from Kentucky (Burton and Johnson) who are probably also up there and nobody talks about them.

Anyway, if I'm in the 1st round and sold on a WR... I take Thomas because he is every bit as good as any of those others, he has size, YAC, and can also return kicks. Check this out: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHbkz0IMIeA

BTW, Thomas only has 16 college games compared to Sweed's 50+... If Thomas played in 50 games, at the rate he played in 16... He'd have double the receptions and TDs that Sweed had. Thomas (the Spartan) is the only one we should be considering in the 1st round if we choose to take a WR (though I'd still look to other positions).

[mistertim]

It really can be hard to predict who will become a good wideout and who won't. I thought a few years ago that David Terrell should have been great. He seemed to have the size and hands to be a good WR. That being said he was out of the league with injuries and inconsistent play. Then you take a guy like Marvin Harrison. Everyone coming out thought he would be good, but nobody thought that he would be the HOF player that he is today. It is really hard to see the great WRs coming. With the exception of Moss, receivers like Terrell Owens, T.J. Houshmanzadeh, and Chad Johnson were all selected in the later rounds. We will probably find a receiver in the later rounds. There is no need this year to pick someone who is not a lock and I think that DL is a little more pressing need right now considering we play in a division where the QBs are among the elite. We need pressure on these guys.

I agree completely that it can be hard to predict who will be good at the next level and who won't but I think there are ways to make an educated guess. Top athletes in college can beat people with their pure talent. In the NFL everyone is a top athlete so that won't fly. Routes have to be more crisp, you have to get better separation, and adjust to complex NFL offenses. IMO one of the most important things along with being a great or elite athlete is work ethic. All of those things can be learned if the person has the talent to do it and works their ass off to get better. Unfortunately sometimes that is hard to find in very talented WRs.

Another factor is what sort of offense they played in in college. This to me is a major thing because players at schools who ran a more complex NFL style offense have a huge advantage compared to guys who were in more simple offenses, especially when you're talking about immediate impact in the first year or two. I think this is one of the reasons Calvin Johnson didn't do what some people expected him to last season. He has elite skills and I think will be an elite WR, but he came from a GT offense that was far removed from a pro style offense. He had to come in and learn a much different and more complex offense.

Yes, T.O., T.J., and CJ were taken after the 1st. T.O. was a small school prospect who had great skills but also some known character issues. He obviously worked out as far as being an NFL WR but for every T.O. there are probably 100 small school guys with talent who do nothing in the NFL. Same thing with T.J. He was a 6th or 7th round pick. Again, for every late round WR gem there are hundreds that do zero. Banking on finding a late round gem of a WR is pretty out there. CJ would have been an easy high 1st round pick had he not (as is typical of him) run off at the mouth and hyped up his own 40 time and vertical. There was tons of hype about him but then he showed up at the combine and produced much lower numbers. Even so, he still went at the top of the 2nd. Yes there are later round guys who end up being great but there are many more WRs who come from the 1st or early 2nd round that end up great or elite. Contrast that to DL where most of the top sack guys the past few years came after the 1st round. Most Guards are also taken after the 1st round, considering that there is MAYBE one Guard taken in the 1st each year, and that is a maybe.

[mistertim]

Anyway, if I'm in the 1st round and sold on a WR... I take Thomas because he is every bit as good as any of those others, he has size, YAC, and can also return kicks. Check this out: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHbkz0IMIeA

BTW, Thomas only has 16 college games compared to Sweed's 50+... If Thomas played in 50 games, at the rate he played in 16... He'd have double the receptions and TDs that Sweed had. Thomas (the Spartan) is the only one we should be considering in the 1st round if we choose to take a WR (though I'd still look to other positions).

What-ifs are sort of dubious. The fact is Thomas didn't play in many games. Whether that is because he wasn't good enough or there was some other reason we aren't privy to we don't know. What if Sweed didn't hurt his wrist and had another great year or even more productive one? He would probably be a lock for a top 10 pick. Also, Sweed played in 41 games. That is including Bowl games. Not that it is that important, just not sure where you pulled the 50+ from.

However, I don't see how him playing in more games and having more experience is a knock on him. I'd think it is the opposite. Thomas is pretty much the definition of a one year wonder. Was in JUCO, transferred to MSU and caught 6 passes for 90 yards his Sophomore year, then has a very good Junior year and declares. That to me is more of a risk than a guy who also has great skills, has plenty of experience in a complex offense, and before he was hurt produced big time. Thomas could be very good but it will probably take him longer to get good since he is making such a major leap without much experience. He also didn't have a very good TD/catch ratio. He got lots of passes thrown his way and had a pretty good AVG, but he didn't seem to be much of a TD machine, having 1 TD for every 9.9 catches...which is a decent amount lower than most of the other top WR prospects this year.

I'm not saying he isn't good or isn't going to be good. He has the skills and the athletic talent to be good in the NFL, but his lack of experience makes it risky.

[Smoot Point Really]

What-ifs are sort of dubious. The fact is Thomas didn't play in many games. Whether that is because he wasn't good enough or there was some other reason we aren't privy to we don't know. What if Sweed didn't hurt his wrist and had another great year or even more productive one? He would probably be a lock for a top 10 pick. Also, Sweed played in 41 games. That is including Bowl games. Not that it is that important, just not sure where you pulled the 50+ from.

However, I don't see how him playing in more games and having more experience is a knock on him. I'd think it is the opposite. Thomas is pretty much the definition of a one year wonder. Was in JUCO, transferred to MSU and caught 6 passes for 90 yards his Sophomore year, then has a very good Junior year and declares. That to me is more of a risk than a guy who also has great skills, has plenty of experience in a complex offense, and before he was hurt produced big time. Thomas could be very good but it will probably take him longer to get good since he is making such a major leap without much experience. He also didn't have a very good TD/catch ratio. He got lots of passes thrown his way and had a pretty good AVG, but he didn't seem to be much of a TD machine, having 1 TD for every 9.9 catches...which is a decent amount lower than most of the other top WR prospects this year.

I'm not saying he isn't good or isn't going to be good. He has the skills and the athletic talent to be good in the NFL, but his lack of experience makes it risky.

The problem with Sweed is that for 40 games played (2 more than Calvin Johnson), his statistics are pretty underwhelming. The only thing going for this guy are his measurables.

Let's take a deeper look at his best season, since last year wasn't worth looking at:

Sweed has 40 games with 124 receptions and 20 TDs. His best season at Texas was 46 catches, 801 yards and 12 TDs. IMO, since none of his other three seasons are even close to that, it sort of makes him a "one year wonder". In fact, that same year 26 of his catches and 6 of his TDs came against 4 teams: Iowa State (4-8), Nebraska (9-5), Baylor (4-8) and North Texas (3-9).

The other games:

Ohio State (12-1) - 3 catches for 37 yards

Rice (7-6) - 1 catch for 16 yards and a TD

Sam Houston State (6-5) - 3 catches for 70 yards and a TD

Oklahoma (11-3) - 2 catches for 38 yards and a TD

Texas Tech (8-5) - 2 catches for 47 yards and a TD

Oklahoma State (7-6) - 2 catches for 18 yards

Kansas State (7-6) - 3 catches for 57 yards and a TD

Texas A&M (9-4) - 1 catch for 14 yards

Iowa (6-7) - 3 catches for 70 yards and a TD

In games where teams won 8 games or more, Sweed ended up with:

16 catches and 3 TDs in 5 games... Out of 46 catches and 12 TDs on the year.

BTW, last season: He beat up on Arkansas State and Rice, but his other 4 games were miserable and his best performance out of those was a 4 catch for 26 yards (0 TDs) against TCU.

How can you say this an "impressive" body of work. The guy has measurables (height and speed) and people will reach in the 1st round based on those alone. He isn't worthy of the risk. We might as well just bring back Darkerian McCants to catch TDs.

[angel2]

1) We don't know that Malcolm Kelly was the only one who protested, we only know that he got the press.

As usual you got it wrong. Kelly was the only player at that event that was vocal. No one else was mention but Malcom Kelly.

2) We really don't know if Malcolm Kelly was the only one affected by the switch, but since he didn't run the 40 at the combine it definitely had more of an impact on him than others who ran the 40 at the combine.

See above.

3) The only thing we do know is that the venue was switched, and that alone is a thing we shouldn't overlook. I've never heard of other schools doing this... Is it because nobody else complains? Is it because this is just something that schools don't do? IMO, if schools did this then more players would be complaining.

Then why run in the first place? If he thought it was wrong, don't give in to the process by running.

I'm defending Malcolm Kelly's stance against his school and nothing more. You have repeatedly implied that I'm taking sides for Kelly as a draft pick or a football player... I couldn't care less. I hope we don't draft him or any WR in the 1st round.

If you don't care about him but you care about his objection to the switch -then you do care. You can't have it both ways. I was hoping Kelly would at least be average in his fourty times so I could make some comparsions.

You've made your bias quite clear. Having a bias in favor of Sweed obviously taints your arguments against Kelly, even to the point of continually disparaging his character (which isn't perfect, but I'm guessing Limas Sweed isn't a saint either). In this case, having a bias isn't a "good thing".

My bias is based on looking at all the notable WRs in this draft and coming up with an obvious conclusion on my part and that choice is Sweed. I don't want you to think that my word is the final thing to be enacted on. BTW, I do like other WRs in this draft, but to me, Sweed is the best of them all.

Actually, since I'm a TROLL... I'll disagree about this too.

Is there anything else you want to add?

[Smoot Point Really]

As usual you got it wrong. Kelly was the only player at that event that was vocal. No one else was mention but Malcom Kelly.

1) You don't know for a fact that nobody else complained... It's just that Kelly is the only one "reported" to have complained, which if you actually read what I wrote instead of assuming I'm wrong, is exactly what I said.

2) I still think you are being a douche.

Love,

Troll

[2006Skins]

http://www.buffalobills.com/blog/index.jsp?post_id=3296

According to the bills site blog, Kelly ran a 4.65 on his personal workout which was on turf.

Now some are saying late 2nd early 3rd at best for Kelly

[Smoot Point Really]

Good information... I think he falls to 3rd. That is too slow, and it's unfortunate because I'd rather have someone else fall for us to grab.

[Shaddow]

Local news here is reporting he ran a 4.46

http://www.newson6.com/global/story.asp?s=8176809

[mistertim]

Local news here is reporting he ran a 4.46

http://www.newson6.com/global/story.asp?s=8176809

That article is very vague. Doesn't say who he ran for, where, if it was taped, anything.

[angel2]

1) You don't know for a fact that nobody else complained... It's just that Kelly is the only one "reported" to have complained, which if you actually read what I wrote instead of assuming I'm wrong, is exactly what I said.

2) I still think you are being a douche.

Love,

Troll

You are the only Troll that I converse with, so consider yourself lucky.

I re-read Kelly's pro day again (April 9th) and there were a few other runners (WRs, RBs and a TE) that ran on the same surface that Malcom did. Not one of them was reported to have issues with the change of ventue that Kelly was upset about. Just maybe Troll, you know something that wasn't reported.

You might want to look at this web site:

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story?id=09000d5d807bdfdb&template=with-video&confirm=true

In fact, the TE almost ran as fast as Kelly in the 40ty (4.78). :cuss:

[angel2]

The problem with Sweed is that for 40 games played (2 more than Calvin Johnson), his statistics are pretty underwhelming. The only thing going for this guy are his measurables.

How can you say this an "impressive" body of work. The guy has measurables (height and speed) and people will reach in the 1st round based on those alone. He isn't worthy of the risk. We might as well just bring back Darkerian McCants to catch TDs.

Maybe you need to read this link. I'm not trying to persuade you one way or the other, but Limas had an injury that did sidelined him:

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story?id=09000d5d807bdfdb&template=with-video&confirm=true

[mistertim]

You are the only Troll that I converse with, so consider yourself lucky.

I re-read Kelly's pro day again (April 9th) and there were a few other runners (WRs, RBs and a TE) that ran on the same surface that Malcom did. Not one of them was reported to have issues with the change of ventue that Kelly was upset about. Just maybe Troll, you know something that wasn't reported.

You might want to look at this web site:

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story?id=09000d5d807bdfdb&template=with-video&confirm=true

In fact, the TE almost ran as fast as Kelly in the 40ty (4.78). :cuss:

Man, I almost don't want people to think he is the #1 WR in this class. I don't want the Bills reaching for him or the Eagles taking him. I want him to be there at 21. Thomas has more hype so I'm guessing if the Bills reach for a WR it will be for him. Either way, I think Kirwan is on target there.

[Oldskool]

Malcolm Kelly is/will be a

[MumboSauce]

If we can get him in the second great! I think the dude can ball despite the 40 times.

[CRobi21]

Malcolm Kelly is/will be a

A Greek Philosopher???

[Oldskool]

A Greek Philosopher???

Bust.. :doh: :laugh:

[CRobi21]

Bust.. :doh: :laugh:

Oh. Yeah. Right.

:laugh: