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Malcom Kelly Draft Stock Dropping Big - Still Slow as of 4/16(merged)


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Well Carlos Rogers ran a 4.3 40 and he never gets burned so 40 times must mean something. Factor in 4.28 Mathis and his career receiving numbers and 40 times are obviously the only way to judge talent. There have been to many times teams and fans get tricked into players and hype players based upon track and field numbers.

Seriously though look at a WR/DB three cone drill times, short shuttle, and vertical leap. Those three drills measure explosion and agility, much more helpful in the NFL then running straight fast. Give me a WR who can get in and out of breaks clean and fast over a track star.

His vertical blows too.

Also need to take into consideration the quality of opponents he was playing.

I don't know too many star dbs and corners that are corn-fed.

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The obsession of the 40 is mind boggling. You guys realize the difference between a good 40 and a bad 40 is barely the blink of an eye right? A good Wr more then makes up for this with route running and precision. Jerry Rice the best Wr to ever live never ran faster than a 4.65. Anquan Boldin also had a "slow" 40 time. I cant believe no one has mentioned Kelly's 4.24 short shuttle. If he drops he will become another standout like Boldin. Look at all the bums in the league who can run an impressive 40, you can count them by the dozens. How many of them do you count on to make a play in the 4th quarter?

Sorry, but I'll take the 6'4 230 pound receiver who can go up and make a play.

This discussion is over-blown... Everyone defends players who have a "slow 40" by comparing them with Boldin and Rice. The problem with this is that Boldin's stock didn't just drop on his 40 time, it dropped on his pass catching (which was horrid at the combine). His 40 time was pretty bad, but a lot of teams have over-looked a slow 40 and it has come back to haunt them. For every Boldin and Rice, there are plenty of examples (a couple former trojan WRs come to mind) where players ran poorly, but had other good metrics to go along with the good college numbers, and never panned out. The 40 is one metric, but you cannot ignore it. The NFL is a speed league and the numbers that Kelly ran (unless his combine numbers were far better and it was just a bad day) would drop him from the 1st round. It's just a fact of life. Why risk a first rounder on a big guy with below average speed? It doesn't matter if he turns out to be Boldin or Rice... He isn't faster than 95% of the cornerbacks who will be covering him, so why would you be the only team that feels he is worth risking a 1st rounder on?

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By your own admission, you've never seen him play. Sorry, but you can have all the numbers and 40 times and statistics. At the end of the day, game film is the only real way to evaluate a player. And to me, the game film speaks for itself. The guy can play in this league and he's going to be solid. I would have no problem drafting him.

So, playing against college competition is the only way to evaluate a player? I guess Rashaan "canibuyavowel" Salaam was just misunderstood... Why overlook any information?

I beg your pardon, but how come people on message boards are the only ones dumb enough to think the 40 is meaningless? :) It's like every college wide receiver who torches college-level cornerbacks and runs a crappy 40 time is the next Rice or Boldin...

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While 40 times are by far overblown, a 4.75 time is something that would drop a player that was almost unanimously a top 15 pick and knock him out of the first round. But you can also argue that while the 40 times at the combine for the other receivers were on turf, Kelly's today was on grass (which is a disadvantage to Kelly). I think a risk like that in the 2nd round on a 6'4" receiver with a 32" vertical is a good one at that. I wouldn't touch him in the 1st round, due to other pressing needs, but the picking him up at 52 would be a steal imo

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Looks like there is some controversy surrounding his pro day...

NFL | M. Kelly unhappy with school

Wed, 9 Apr 2008 12:02:31 -0700 Jake Trotter, of The Oklahoman, reports University of Oklahoma WR Malcolm Kelly is unhappy with his school after his Pro Day performance Wednesday, April 9. Kelly said he was not told that the location of the Pro Day had been moved from Astroturf to Field turf until this morning. He claims he had been preparing for a month to run on Astroturf and was running the 40-yard dash in under 4.50 seconds. Kelly ran the 40-yard dash on field turf Wednesday, April 9, in 4.68 seconds.

I would imagine that he runs better when he works out individually for teams. It should be obvious to anyone that has seen him play that he has better than 4.7 speed.

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The obsession of the 40 is mind boggling. You guys realize the difference between a good 40 and a bad 40 is barely the blink of an eye right? A good Wr more then makes up for this with route running and precision. Jerry Rice the best Wr to ever live never ran faster than a 4.65. Anquan Boldin also had a "slow" 40 time. I cant believe no one has mentioned Kelly's 4.24 short shuttle. If he drops he will become another standout like Boldin. Look at all the bums in the league who can run an impressive 40, you can count them by the dozens. How many of them do you count on to make a play in the 4th quarter?

Sorry, but I'll take the 6'4 230 pound receiver who can go up and make a play.

have to agree with all and I'll add that a Doucet pick is a waste....just another little guy....not even that special
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The obsession of the 40 is mind boggling. You guys realize the difference between a good 40 and a bad 40 is barely the blink of an eye right? A good Wr more then makes up for this with route running and precision. Jerry Rice the best Wr to ever live never ran faster than a 4.65. Anquan Boldin also had a "slow" 40 time. I cant believe no one has mentioned Kelly's 4.24 short shuttle. If he drops he will become another standout like Boldin. Look at all the bums in the league who can run an impressive 40, you can count them by the dozens. How many of them do you count on to make a play in the 4th quarter?

Sorry, but I'll take the 6'4 230 pound receiver who can go up and make a play.

Not all receivers who might be 6'4"-ish and 230-ish are equal.

Is Kelly Braylon Edwards or Mike Williams?

Is he Larry Fitzgerald or Charles Rogers?

Is he Plaxico Burress or David Terrell?

Is he Terrell Owens or J.J. Stokes?

These big guys are really difficult to evaluate and project, because every player cited above dominated his college competition.

Some of the same positives many of you are saying about Kelly -- good playing speed, ability to separate, ability to go up and make plays, etc -- were being said about the likes of Stokes, Terrell, Rogers, and Williams, not to mention countless others. But something was obviously missing because all of these guys were tremendous disappointments.

This is where you have to do your real homework about intangibles. Does he have good position skills? Does the guy have a strong work ethic? Is he coachable? Can he process the intellectual aspects of the game? Is he persistent and can he overcome adversity?

There's no doubt that Kelley displays outstanding physical skills on film, and he has outstanding size. But the history of injury and his timed speed do entail a certain amount of real risk. And his whining about the surface he had to run on suggests a little immaturity, to me. I'd consider him in the second round, but I'd probably look at several other players first before pulling the trigger on him.

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This guy was a top 15 pick after the college season ended. The injury question is a more valid concern than the speed.

Get on a TRACK with metal SPIKES and tear down a straight line. Fantastic. Games are played on grass (or field turf), in rubber cleats, and Go-routes aren't the only plays called.

I'm always wary of the big rise or the big fall AFTER the football season ends. Stallworth and Williamson come to mind.

I would consider Kelly in the second round, after our doctors checked out his knees.

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Here are some WR 40 times for comparison.

torry holt 4.44

marvin harrison 4.38

reggie wayne 4.45

Larry fitzgerald 4.5

plaxio burress 4.56

braylon edwards 4.42

chad johnson 4.57

reggie brown 4.45

roy williams 4.48

anquan boldin 4.72

brandon marshall 4.52 (without mcdonald's bags)

marques colston 4.63

wes welker 4.6

tj houshmazole 4.4 (championship!)

jericho cotchery 4.54

kevin curtis 4.35

roddy white 4.45

steve smith 4.38

dwayne bowe 4.48

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This discussion is over-blown... Everyone defends players who have a "slow 40" by comparing them with Boldin and Rice. The problem with this is that Boldin's stock didn't just drop on his 40 time, it dropped on his pass catching (which was horrid at the combine). His 40 time was pretty bad, but a lot of teams have over-looked a slow 40 and it has come back to haunt them. For every Boldin and Rice, there are plenty of examples (a couple former trojan WRs come to mind) where players ran poorly, but had other good metrics to go along with the good college numbers, and never panned out. The 40 is one metric, but you cannot ignore it. The NFL is a speed league and the numbers that Kelly ran (unless his combine numbers were far better and it was just a bad day) would drop him from the 1st round. It's just a fact of life. Why risk a first rounder on a big guy with below average speed? It doesn't matter if he turns out to be Boldin or Rice... He isn't faster than 95% of the cornerbacks who will be covering him, so why would you be the only team that feels he is worth risking a 1st rounder on?

No one said that we should risk a first rounder on him, but if he drops to us in the second we have to take him. As perviously stated, we need a big possession receiver and the difference between a good and bad 40 are hardly a blink of the eye. If he can be tall and physical at 4.65, I'll take him over any smaller 4.2er any day. However, I doubt Kelly will drop all the way to our spot in round 2.

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Here are some WR 40 times for comparison.

torry holt 4.44

marvin harrison 4.38

reggie wayne 4.45

Larry fitzgerald 4.5

plaxio burress 4.56

braylon edwards 4.42

chad johnson 4.57

reggie brown 4.45

roy williams 4.48

anquan boldin 4.72

brandon marshall 4.52 (without mcdonald's bags)

marques colston 4.63

wes welker 4.6

tj houshmazole 4.4 (championship!)

jericho cotchery 4.54

kevin curtis 4.35

roddy white 4.45

steve smith 4.38

dwayne bowe 4.48

Good research. Bolden, Colston and Welker are the ones that jump out at you. It just proves that your 40 time does not accurately determine your speed. To me, if you can run anywhere from 4.4 to 4.7, you're in the same speed group. Those portions of a second hardly make a difference at all. Now anything shorter or longer than those times might tell you something, but you can't choose 1 guy over another due to a difference of .2 or .3 on their 40 times.

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Seems like a good player to me from the footage I've seen - we need someone physical out there and battle with the DB's for contested balls. What he lacks in speed, he might make up for it and then some with his physical strength and ability. Kelly is extremely well put together.

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