1st Rd WR since 2000 (Skins draft related)

[blitzpackage]

I've thought recently about a few mock's that have us going after a WR at #21. Whether it would be Limas Sweed, Mario Manningham, DeSean Jackson, or Malcolm Kelly. I come from the "draft a DL" school of thought, but there is no denying we've needed a big, strong possession receiver opposite Santana for a while to move El to the slot. I decided to take a look back to 2000 and see how 1st round WR have helped their teams in their rookie years. I expected it to reinforce how much of a reach it is, but I wonder exactly what we would expect. If we are expecting 70 receptions, 1000 yards, 8 TD's we might be in for let down.

All the numbers are below, but the averages since 2000 are around 37 receptions, 498 yards, and 3 TD's. Sure, some were injured(like Santana) but I feel like that is part of the risk as well. Also there were outliers in both directions (Rod Gardner, Donte Stallworth, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Lee Evans, Roy Willliams, Michael Clayton, Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe really stand out and produced well out of 35) but I still feel like we won't get much to help our playoff team get any further if we look to WR at #21.

The point I'm trying to make is, rookie WR seem to rarely "get it" in the first year. For whatever reason it takes them a little while to acclimate and even fewer of those become elite. Even though I could produce a dossier on 1st round DL and CB busts, I still feel like this route (or OL depth + DJ Hackett/other FA WR) would be better suited for depth and to help us get a step deeper into the playoffs. BTW, I know I'm not the only one suggesting this because I've seen us taking Calais Campbell in quite a few mocks. I'm just curious if you guys think around 37 receptions, 498 yards and 3 TD's would be a successful 1st round pick if we decide to go WR?

2000

Peter Warrick 51-592-4

Plaxico Burress 22-273-0

Travis Taylor 28-276-3

Sylvester Morris 48-678-3

R. Jay Soward 14-154-1

2001

David Terrell 34-415-4

Koren Robinson 39-536-1

Rod Gardner 46-741-4

Santana Moss 2-40-0

Freddie Mitchell 21-283-1

Reggie Wayne 27-345-0

2002

Donte Stallworth 42-594-8

Ashlie Lelie 35-525-2

Javon Walker 23-319-1

2003

Charles Rogers 22-243-3

Andre Johnson 66-976-4

Bryant Johnson 35-438-1

2004

Larry Fitzgerald 58-780-8

Reggie Williams 27-268-1

Roy Williams 54-817-8

Lee Evans 48-843-9

Michael Clayton 80-1193-7

Mike Jenkins 7-119-0

Rashaun Woods 7-160-1

2005

Braylon Edwards 32-512-3

Troy Williamson 24-372-2

Mike Williams 29-350-1

Matt Jones 36-432-5

Mark Clayton 44-471-2

Roddy White 29-446-3

2006

Santonio Holmes 49-824-2

2007

Calvin Johnson 48-756-4

Ted Ginn, Jr. 34-420-2

Dwayne Bowe 70-995-5

Craig Davis 20-188-1

Anthony Gonzalez 37-576-3

Averages: 37-498-3

[downbeat87]

pick jordy in the 3rd... draft o line (albert) and get rid of wade. take a dline in the 2nd round.

[kiingspadee]

I think for a Rookie that will eventually preform well then hey im all for the 37 receptions 498 yds and 3 tds. I mean look at some of these guys and look at how many became pro bowlers and are big parts of their teams offense. So as long as its no B. Llyod or Reggie Bush type player (I know Bush is a RB but a good example) that never produces ANYTHING then hey ill take the average as long as they do step up the following year or at least improve and then break out by year 3.

Now I am not saying that I want them to take 3 years to become great I would love them to break out year 1 but then that could mean they could end up burning out quick. so as long as they are consistent and produce #s then hey

[blitzpackage]

I think for a Rookie that will eventually preform well then hey im all for the 37 receptions 498 yds and 3 tds. I mean look at some of these guys and look at how many became pro bowlers and are big parts of their teams offense. So as long as its no B. Llyod or Reggie Bush type player (I know Bush is a RB but a good example) that never produces ANYTHING then hey ill take the average as long as they do step up the following year or at least improve and then break out by year 3.

Now I am not saying that I want them to take 3 years to become great I would love them to break out year 1 but then that could mean they could end up burning out quick. so as long as they are consistent and produce #s then hey

Good points, I guess I'm not really sure what I would like the team to do. I think those #'s would be pretty good in our offense combined with Cooley and Portis/Betts out of the backfield, but I wonder if it would be enough to take pressure off of Santana and El.

pick jordy in the 3rd... draft o line (albert) and get rid of wade. take a dline in the 2nd round.

This is kind of what I'm hoping and I wish he would fall to us there because I think the 2nd round might be too early. I think he could put up similar #'s without the 1st round investment. Also, I'd really like for Albert to fall to us at #21 and Trevor Laws in the 2nd. That just leaves us without a young DE for another year.

[Burgundy Burner]

Impressive research - thanks for taking the time to do it.

The problem with this year's draft is that the WRs are not an elite class and only a few are considered to be good or very good - none fall into the category of excellence. Dline is another story though - it is deep with talent and propects. A first round pick on Dline would be nice, but we could probably find one in the second and/or third round too.

FA should answer a lot of questions like will we trade for a WR or rely on the draft. If it comes drafting a WR, then we may have no other choice but to go with one in the first.

My personal preference is to use round one on a WR, QB or Dline in round two, QB or Dline in round three, and the final selections on Oline needs.

[CM916]

That Rod Gardner sure was awesome, huh? :doh:

[LaRonDontLikeUgly]

great post- you certainly did your homework...

i'm not overly impressed by any of the WR prospects in this year's draft and I think it would be in our best interest to trade down and try to grab an early-to-mid 2nd round pick with another in the 3rd or 4th.

jordy nelson will probably be gone by pick #21 in round 3- but snatching him up could be great for us. the OL and DL pool in this draft is very deep and with a few extra picks we could patch up some weak spots on our depth chart.

(and why do so many people want to draft a qb? this is one of the weaker classes at that position i can remember in recent years...)

[CM916]

We don't need to draft a QB but we do need to get a developmental #3 somewhere. I think Hollenbach had started to fill that role for our last few games so he has a bit of a head start if we bring him to camp. Seeing how Palmer turned out, we need to be a little more careful if we do draft another late round guy.

[Roborob132]

as long as those 37 catches are mostly 1st downs so we can keep moving the ball, I am all for that as a rookie.

[Hitman#21]

well thought out, but I still feel like we need a we in the first rd.

[Roborob132]

a we?..........................................................

[WorLRedsknFan4Life]

We are not going to draft a WR, at least in the early rounds. Its pretty clear the Redskins want a WR through FA.

Im all for it so we can use the draft to get help everywhere else.

Plus, the WR position is a skill position and most WR dont make an impact until their 3rd year. We can get an impact WR through FA instead of drafting one and waiting for them to breakout, if they do breakout.

[Smoot Point Really]

Interesting... At least 9 of the 36 guys you mentioned became really great players, and there are 11 guys from the last 3 drafts who I didn't qualify as really great players who still might turn out. This analysis is pretty much incomplete without mentioning the "Draft DL" school (and I don't know how this analysis will turn out as I'm writing this):

2000

DE - Courtney Brown, Cleveland: No Tackle stats on NFL.com, 4.5 Sacks

DE - Shaun Ellis, New York Jets: No Tackle stats on NFL.com, 8.5 Sacks

DE - Erik Flowers, Buffalo: No Tackle stats on NFL.com, 2 Sacks

DT - Corey Simon, Philadelphia: No Tackle stats on NFL.com, 9.5 Sacks

DT - Chris Hovan, Minnesota: No Tackle stats on NFL.com, 2 Sacks

2001

DE - Justin Smith, Cincinnati: 53 Tackles, 8.5 Sacks

DE - Andre Carter, San Francisco: 46 Tackles, 6.5 Sacks

DE - Jamal Reynolds, Green Bay: 4 Tackles, 2 Sacks

DT - Gerrard Warren, Cleveland: 61 Tackles, 5 Sacks

DT - Richard Seymour, New England: 44 Tackles, 3 Sacks

DT - Damione Lewis, St. Louis: 10 Tackles, 0 Sacks

DT - Marcus Stroud, Jacksonville: 25 Tackles, 0 Sacks

DT - Ryan Pickett, St. Louis: 19 Tackles, .5 Sacks

2002

DE - Julius Peppers, Carolina: 35 Tackles, 12 Sacks

DE - Dwight Freeney, Indianapolis: 41 Tackles, 13 Sacks

DE - Bryan Thomas, New York Jets: 9 Tackles, .5 Sacks (plays OLB now)

DE - Charles Grant, New Orleans: 37 Tackles, 7 Sacks

DT - Ryan Sims, Kansas City: 6 Tackles, 0 Sacks

DT - John Henderson, Jacksonville: 53 Tackles, 6.5 Sacks

DT - Wendell Bryant, Arizona Cardinals: 19 Tackles, 1.5 Sacks

DT - Albert Haynesworth, Tennessee: 30 Tackles, 1 Sack

2003

DE - Kevin Williams, Minnesota: 51 Tackles, 10.5 Sacks (moved to DT now)

DE - Ty Warren, New England: 33 Tackles, 1 Sack

DE - Michael Haynes, Chicago: 21 Tackles, 2 Sacks

DE - Jerome McDougal, Philadelphia: 9 Tackles, 0 Sacks

DE - Calvin Pace, Arizona: 32 Tackles, 1 Sack (plays OLB now)

DE - Tyler Brayton, Oakland: 61 Tackles, 2.5 Sacks

DT - Dewayne Robertson, New York Jets: 43 Tackles, 1.5 Sacks

DT - Johnathan Sullivan, New Orleans: 33 Tackles, 1 Sack

DT - Jimmy Kennedy, St Louis: 2 Tackles, 0 Sacks

DT - William Joseph, New York Giants: 7 Tackles, 1 Sack

2004

DE - Will Smith, New Orleans: 40 Tackles, 7.5 Sacks

DE - Kenechi Udeze, Minnesota: 36 Tackles, 5 Sacks

DT - Tommie Harris, Chicago: 43 Tackles, 3.5 Sacks

DT - Marcus Tubbs, Seattle: 13 Tackles, 1 Sack

2005

DE - Erasmus James, Minnesota: 28 Tackles, 4 Sacks

DE - Marcus Spears, Dallas: 31 Tackles, 1.5 Sacks

DE - Luis Castillo, San Diego: 49 Tackles, 3.5 Sacks

DT - Travis Johnson, Houston: 26 Tackles, 1 Sack

DT - Mike Patterson, Philadelphia: 44 Tackles, 3.5 Sacks

2006

DE - Mario Williams, Houston: 47 Tackles, 4.5 Sacks

DE - Tamba Hali, Kansas City: 58 Tackles, 8 Sacks

DE - Mathias Kiwanuka, New York Giants: 53 Tackles, 4 Sacks

DT - Haloti Ngata, Baltimore: 31 Tackles, 1 Sack

DT - Brodrick Bunkley, Philadelphia: 9 Tackles, 0 Sacks

DT - John McCargo, Buffalo: 6 Tackles, 0 Sacks

2007

DE - Gaines Adams, Tampa Bay: 36 Tackles, 6 Sacks

DE - Jamaal Anderson, Atlanta: 30 Tackles, 0 Sacks

DE - Jarvis Moss, Denver: 12 Tackles, 1 Sack

DT - Amobi Okoye, Houston: 32 Tackles, 5.5 Sacks

DT - Justin Harrell, Green Bay: 16 Tackles, 0 Sacks

What is amazing is looking at the players who did well in their rookie years (mostly used as specialists on running downs) who never duplicated their rookie seasons and sometimes fell off the map entirely. There are quite a few DLs who took a couple years to develop. Anyway, the analysis isn't complete unless we look at DLs too. I added the teams, because many people say that good teams build from the Line out... While there are good teams in this list, there are also a lot of bad teams too.

It looks to me like teams put a premium on DL and will allow for less strict scrutiny when drafting DL in the 1st round. This may be why DL and QB have been the more "bust-producing" positions in the NFL draft.

[scottishskinsfan]

A rookie wide reciever wouldn't need to shoulder a lot of responsibility in our team with Antwaan and Santana nex to him. So even if we do take one in the 1st, I would expect him to recieve less than your calculated average.

[Manasseh]

What strikes me about the first list of WR is that even though many of those guys didn't produce in their rookie season, they are now the star WRs in the league. Guys like Plaxico, Wayne, and Fitzgerald are all guys we would love to have on our team. As much of a chance as it is, you would have to use a first round pick on those guys.

I don't have time to do it, but I'd love to see a list of the top 10 WRs in the league last year and where they were drafted. I wonder how many were taken in the first round.

[coyote4848]

wow, I'm impressed.....very nice job!

[mistertim]

Impressive research - thanks for taking the time to do it.

The problem with this year's draft is that the WRs are not an elite class and only a few are considered to be good or very good - none fall into the category of excellence. Dline is another story though - it is deep with talent and propects. A first round pick on Dline would be nice, but we could probably find one in the second and/or third round too.

FA should answer a lot of questions like will we trade for a WR or rely on the draft. If it comes drafting a WR, then we may have no other choice but to go with one in the first.

My personal preference is to use round one on a WR, QB or Dline in round two, QB or Dline in round three, and the final selections on Oline needs.

That is hard to say, to be honest. Before his early season wrist injury, Sweed was projected to be an easy top 10 pick by many scouts if he had a decent year. He was considered by many as the #1 WR in college football as he was on track to break many of Roy Williams' Texas records. It could be a blessing in disguise for us. If he is at 21 IMO he would be a steal. But that is just me, and I like his game and his attitude after watching him play and seeing interviews with him.

[Peregrine]

Do we really need a big WR?

Dont look at the depth chart, look at this team on the field. We have Cooley. Whats to say he cant line up as a big WR in a 3 WR set? I know Coach Z has mentioned that this offense has an increased emphasis on the FB position, so if you have a dual backfield(Portis and a FB), then there is only space for 3 receivers on the field. Theres no way you take Moss or Cooley off, so then does Randle El become the odd man out, or do you avoid going after a WR all together? There is only space for 5 skill players on offense on any given play. You would expect Moss, Cooley, and Portis to always be on the field. You would then expect Randle El to be the 4th guy. So that leaves the 5th to either be a WR, a FB, or a TE. The WCO does not emphasize TE, so thats will rarely happen. It does emphasize FB, so that means most likely that 5th guy will be Sellers or whoever we sign this offseason. Just how often will any WR we sign get to see the field?

[LaRonDontLikeUgly]

I don't have time to do it, but I'd love to see a list of the top 10 WRs in the league last year and where they were drafted. I wonder how many were taken in the first round.

i just got fired, so i have plenty of time...

braylon edwards: round 1 pick 3

larry fitzgerald: round 1 pick 3

torry holt: round 1 pick 6

roy williams: round 1 pick 7

plaxico burress: round 1 pick 8

sanatana moss: round 1 pick 16

marvin harrison: round 1 pick 19

randy moss: round 1 pick 21

reggie wayne: round 1 pick 30

chad johnson: round 2 pick 36

anquan boldin: round 2 pick 54

steve smith: round 3 pick 74

terrell owens: round 3 pick 89

tj joushmandzadeh: round 7 pick 204

donald driver: round 7 pick 213

wes welker: undrafted

[kiingspadee]

I don't have time to do it, but I'd love to see a list of the top 10 WRs in the league last year and where they were drafted. I wonder how many were taken in the first round.

RankPlayerTeam PosRec Yds Avg Yds/GLong TD20+ 40+1st 1st% FUM

1 Reggie Wayne IND WR 104 1,510 14.5 94.4 64 10 25 5 72 69.2 3

2Randy Moss NE WR 98 1,493 15.2 93.3 65T 23 18 9 74 75.5 0

3Chad Johnson CIN WR 93 1,440 15.5 90.0 70T 8 27 4 74 79.6 2

4Larry Fitzgerald ARI WR 100 1,409 14.1 93.9 48T 10 19 4 69 69.0 3

5Terrell Owens DAL WR 81 1,355 16.7 90.3 52T 15 22 6 69 85.2 0

6Brandon Marshall DEN WR 102 1,325 13.0 82.8 68T 7 13 3 70 68.6 3

7Braylon Edwards CLE WR 80 1,289 16.1 80.6 78T 16 21 4 57 71.3 3 8Marques Colston NO WR 98 1,202 12.3 75.1 45 11 14 2 64 65.3 1

8Roddy White ATL WR 83 1,202 14.5 75.1 69T 6 19 2 52 62.7 3

10Torry Holt STL WR 93 1,189 12.8 74.3 40 7 16 1 63 67.7 2

1. Reggie wayne - Drafted Round 1

2. Randy Moss - Drafted Round 1

3. Chad Johnson - Drafted Round 2

4. Larry Fitzgerald - Drafted Round 1

5. Terrell Owens - Drafted Round 3

6. Brandon Marshall - Drafted Round 4

7. Braylon Edwards - Drafted Round 1

8. Marques Colston - Drafted Round 7

8. Roddy White - Drafted round 1

10. Torry Holt - Drafted Round 1

So out of the top 10 WRs last season 6 were drafted round 1, 1 in round 2, 3, 4, and 7.

[moviedude25]

Thats alarming. With the exception of 2004, it looks like there was one good WR out of each year listed

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

and of all the guys you posted that didnt "get it" their first season, they sure as hell get it now.

plaxico

reggie wayne

andre johnson

larry fitzgerald

roy williams

lee evans

braylon edwards

santonio holmes

all legit beasts at WR currently. even guys that i consider second tier receivers such as Donte Stallworth, Santana Moss, Javon Walker, Bryant Johnson, Roddy White, and Reggie Williams are all servicable assets to their teams. no positions come into the league and light it up right away, and if they do they are rare. why the rush anyways? why not let a guy develop for a year or two. are you that impatient?

[pjfootballer]

I can actually see us NOT taking a WR in the first round, if we get Hackett. I can maybe see us going O-line of DT with that pick. Not DE. The Skins like Wilson/Phillips (no pun intended) combination and are looking for a stud DT. Maybe WR in the 2nd and CB in the 3rd.

[Manasseh]

Looking at the 2 lists above, it's obvious that your odds of landing a top WR are dramatically increased by drafting a guy that warrants a 1st round grade. That sounds obvious, but in light of the other side of the argument presented in this thread, I feel it's important to point out. A 1st round WR may not produce right away, but it much more likely to produce over time.

I tend to agree with pjfootballer. If we get Hackett, it's hard to see us taking a WR in the 1st round. If not though, I wouldn't be opposed to it.

(Thanks kiingspadee and LDLU for all the work you put in!!!)

[blitzpackage]

and of all the guys you posted that didnt "get it" their first season, they sure as hell get it now.

plaxico

reggie wayne

andre johnson

larry fitzgerald

roy williams

lee evans

braylon edwards

santonio holmes

all legit beasts at WR currently. even guys that i consider second tier receivers such as Donte Stallworth, Santana Moss, Javon Walker, Bryant Johnson, Roddy White, and Reggie Williams are all servicable assets to their teams. no positions come into the league and light it up right away, and if they do they are rare. why the rush anyways? why not let a guy develop for a year or two. are you that impatient?

I think you missed the point. I was speaking more to draft value as it relates to our current playoff roster. I didn't say all 1st round WR are busts which is what you seem to be implying. Plus, our skill positions are the youngest on our team compared to the other areas we need help(DE, OL, CB). I guess I was basically thinking to myself I'd love to have a rookie receiver who could put up 1000 yards so I wanted to look back and see how some of the top name guys did their first year. This post is about curbing expectations for myself if our team decides to go WR at #21. In your attempt to be your usual condescending and patronizingly superior presence you forgot about the reading comprehension part.