Football Outsiders on NFC East

[PersonsFan]

Check it out:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2006/03/21/ramblings/four-downs/3764/

[Bryan_Randall]

:laugh: :laugh:

[Henry]

Neither, however, is a sure bet to outperform David Patten, Washington's number two receiver in 2005. Randle El was only the fourth most productive wide receiver on the Steelers last season according to FO stats, worth less in terms of both total value and value per play than Cedrick Wilson and Quincy Morgan. Randle El caught only 50 percent of the balls thrown in his direction last season, a career low. Lloyd didn't fare any better in San Francisco, catching only 44 percent of the passes thrown his way — even accounting for San Francisco’s quarterback problems, that’s really low. Opposing defenses will have little reason to stop double-teaming Moss if they know the other receivers on the field will fail to catch the ball most of the time it's thrown to them.

I find this logic a little odd.

Patten only caught 42% of the passes thrown his way, and his ypc was 9.9 compared to Lloyd's 15.3 and Randel El's 15.9.

So Patten caught fewer passes and a fewer percentage of passes thrown his way than either of our pickups, depsite the fact that he was running much shorter (higher percentage) routes.

Even using only the stats they feel are important, how are either of these guys not considered an upgrade?

[Bigredskin77]

And these people call themselves experts :laugh: :laugh:

[PleaseGoForTheWin]

My favorite line:

"With the Owens signing, however, it's likely Dallas will shift its draft focus away from wide receiver and potentially towards another Buckeye, safety Donte Whitner. With Roy Williams' struggles last season defending deep passes, the Cowboys would be served by finding a safety to play alongside him who excels in pass coverage."

Bwhahaha Mosspwned!!!!11

[LegionOfDoom]

They sure are Outsiders.....please stay away.....

[MRMADD]

I find this logic a little odd.

Patten only caught 42% of the passes thrown his way, and his ypc was 9.9 compared to Lloyd's 15.3 and Randel El's 15.9.

So Patten caught fewer passes and a fewer percentage of passes thrown his way than either of our pickups, depsite the fact that he was running much shorter (higher percentage) routes.

Even using only the stats they feel are important, how are either of these guys not considered an upgrade?

Well, comparing receivers stats, straight up, is a mistake. Both Randle El and Lloyd played in offenses THAT NEVER THREW THE BALL. Don't believe me? Think I'm overstating the case? Take a look at the NFL stats: in 2005, the teams that threw the fewest passes were San Francisco (389 passes) and Pittsburgh (379 passes). Don't expect any receiver to blow it up in those offenses. Both of those teams only threw the ball about 24 times a game.

Just for comparison, Arizona threw 670 passes -- almost twice as many.

In Pittsburgh, Roethlisburger completed about 60% of his passes, meaning that only 228 balls were caught all year. That's 14 caught balls a game. Once you give Hines Ward his, there just weren't that many left over for ARE.

In San Francisco, it was worse. The team completed 52% of their passes, for 204 completions. That's TWELVE catches a game. TWELVE completed balls in an entire game. You can completely throw out Lloyd's statistics. They're meaningless.

So does that mean that, inserted into a more prolific offense, that these guys will shine? Probably, but the Skins don't (pre-Saunders) have a more prolific offense. They only completed 278 passes, or about 17 completions a game. Moss caught about 6 per game, and I don't think anyone's suggesting we throw to him less, so that leaves about 11 catches. Cooley caught about 5 per game, and I assume we still want to throw to him, so that leaves about six completions per game. Portis catches about two per game. That can't change, right? That leave... FOUR catches for these two guys to share.

So something has to give. Either these guys will be essentially invisible, sharing about four catches a game, or the Skins will have to throw a lot more. Last year, the Skins ran the ball 33 times per game, and threw it 30 times. That's pretty good balance, something Gibbs likes. If you're expecting these two new receivers to catch the ball five times each, well, you're a dreamer. There is simply no way, in a Gibbs offense, that four receivers (including Cooley) will each catch 5 balls a game.

So, one or both of these guys will be labeled a bust by the end of this season. There just aren't enough balls to go around.

[hailskins26]

liked the article, disagreed about ARE and Lloyd not outperforming Patten.

[ouvan59]

I don't hate their assessment as much as many of those here probably will but they seem to base their assessment totally on % of passes thrown in their direction and that can be very subjective. Quincy Morgan caught 9 passes all year and to try to infer that he was superior because his production on those 9 catches is lunacy.

I seriously doubt that Joe Gibbs and company scouted and planned their offseason moves by looking at database of stats. My guess is they looked at film and saw what the actual players do on the field. There is a reason that Quincy Morgan is on his 3rd team in 3 years and why Randle El was coveted by several teams this offseason.

[Henry]

So does that mean that, inserted into a more prolific offense, that these guys will shine? Probably, but the Skins don't (pre-Saunders) have a more prolific offense. They only completed 278 passes, or about 17 completions a game. Moss caught about 6 per game, and I don't think anyone's suggesting we throw to him less, so that leaves about 11 catches. Cooley caught about 5 per game, and I assume we still want to throw to him, so that leaves about six completions per game. Portis catches about two per game. That can't change, right? That leave... FOUR catches for these two guys to share.

The Skins did, actually have a more prolific passing offense than either of those teams. We threw more passes for more yards than either of them. Pitt and SF were 32nd and 31st in passes attempted, repsectively. They were 25th and 32nd in yards. We were 22nd in both. We threw the ball about 100 times more than the Steelers. We threw for about 1200 more yards than the 49ers. Most likely our WRs, even the second and third options, will get more opportunity than their counterparts on those teams.

So something has to give. Either these guys will be essentially invisible, sharing about four catches a game, or the Skins will have to throw a lot more. Last year, the Skins ran the ball 33 times per game, and threw it 30 times. That's pretty good balance, something Gibbs likes. If you're expecting these two new receivers to catch the ball five times each, well, you're a dreamer. There is simply no way, in a Gibbs offense, that four receivers (including Cooley) will each catch 5 balls a game.

So, one or both of these guys will be labeled a bust by the end of this season. There just aren't enough balls to go around.

I expect these guys will catch more than 1.4 passes a game, which was Patten's average. I expect these guys will each catch more than .9 passes a game, which was Thrash's average. I expect these guys will catch more than .7 passes a game, which was Jacobs' average.

I don't care how rarely you pass the ball, those are terrible numbers. There's a reason Moss and Cooley caught so many balls: The other guys didn't produce at all. With better #2 and #3 WRs, I expect the Cooley and Moss numbers to go down a little. And that will be a good thing.

But whatever. If you simply want to say we picked up two guys and we have no idea how they will do and there's no point in even trying guess ... well, ok ... I guess. However, my point was that based on the logic presented in that article, the writer's conclusion is flawed. That's it.

[Mooka]

Denver has Washington?s first- and fourth-round selections from the Champ Bailey for Clinton Portis trade

This guy is a moron. I guess we gave up a 1st, 4th and Champ Bailey for Clinton Portis.... :doh:

I wouldn't put too much into anything he says about the Skins.

[yazzmode621]

God damn I am sick and tired of EVERYONE praising Dallas for getting TO! He's 32, loudmouth pain in the ass, ruined 2 teams and is selfish! Yes, he is a great talent but he is past his prime IMO. I also dont think he is THAT much of an upgrade over Keyshwan. Am I missing something here?

[ouvan59]

Randle El caught only 50 percent of the balls thrown in his direction last season, a career low.

Others of Interest:

Terrell Owens 51%

Terry Glenn 52%

Randy Moss 48%

Plaxico Burress 46%

Chris Chambers 49%

Joe Horn 48%

Rod Gardner 50% (I'm not joking)

Roy Williams 48%

Santana Moss 63%

Laveranue Toes 56%

So in effect they started with a conclusion and decided to make the numbers fit the argument.

[Mooka]

Rod Gardner 50% (I'm not joking)

:rotflmao: :rotflmao: :rotflmao:

Now that is funny.

[Xameil]

Well at least Rod Gardner plays to his nickname.

[Fergasun]

Did you guys read the comments on that site?

You guys are way too sensitive to other websites opinions.

1) Writer's argument was that Terrell Owens won't seriously upgrade the Dallas offense.

2) Writer based the Randle-El stats on last year (when he was playing #2) and ignored Randle-El's upgrade to special teams. Randle El caught 60 % of his passes when cast in the slot role in 2004, 2003.

3) Someone corrected him on the Clinton Portis trade... don't know why it wasn't corrected.

Henry,

Go back and look at Patten's 2004. He's merely saying Patten *could* outperform both of them on the field. If that happens than our offense must be putting up 4000 passing yards.

[Skins85]

I for one was very pleased with the redskins offseason widereceiver moves, getting Randel back their returning kicks is going to be a major boost to the offence, we haven't had a good return man since brian mitchell. Now hopefully all that is going to change, opening up better feild position

Brandon Lloyd I think right now he is ging to be a great addition for the team, he was the bright spot for the 49ers last season prior to the switch to Alex Smith which of course after that his numbers began to fall. The kids got hands

David Patten- I think he could still be a contributing factor in our offence, I think it was just a bad year for him all around. Patten was given a few chances early on, and moss just took his chances and ran with it. But Patten is a good vet on the team to have and he's seen the big game *minus Randel El of course*

Al Saunders- Lets not forget this addition, the MOST important one. We icked up Greg Williams and look what happened to the defence? Now if you look at KC's offence over recent years Clinton Portis is going to be another receiving option more so then this passed season, going to see more affective screens, KC's reciver their number one was Eddie Kennison which not to take anything away from but does not have the ability of Moss and the Potiental for the big play like Randel El.

It all lies on the QB postion, we've all known this since the FA began. Barring injury, the offence just needs good QB Play, to be able to manage the offence and not make mistakes and move us down the field. To be able to apply preasure with the ball is very important.

Now I know this doesnt really belong in the thread, but I am trying to go to the NFL draft how do I make that happen? lol

"Been reppin the skins since 85"

[shsu1]

It's a pretty good article. I think they sum us up more accurately than I've seen us in other articles.

[PersonsFan]

One thing about FO is that they are one of the only sites that understand that the Redskins know precisely what they are doing regarding the cap. They had a quick note bashing Don Banks for classifying the Skins as a "loser" in free agency: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2006/03/21/extra-points/3767/

[SteelerSkins]

as an afc north fan, i think the east will be very competitive . . . i can't see any of the teams winning the super bowl (maybe the skins?) but it will be a tough game for each team week in and week out . . . except the eagles . . . they suck.

[Henry]

Henry,

Go back and look at Patten's 2004. He's merely saying Patten *could* outperform both of them on the field. If that happens than our offense must be putting up 4000 passing yards.

He's not saying it as a positive. He's saying

Opposing defenses will have little reason to stop double-teaming Moss if they know the other receivers on the field will fail to catch the ball most of the time it's thrown to them.

And he's basing this entirely on 2005 stats, else he wouldn't have said "Randle El caught only 50 percent of the balls thrown in his direction last season, a career low."

Again, he is culling one group of stats from one year in order to further an arguement, and he does a lousy job of it.

[BayouBrave86]

That old age has served you well MRMADD. :laugh: 97? Geez, you've been following the Skins for a long time. :laugh:

[Fergasun]

Henry,

I think we both are in agreement he is wrong about the upgrade to WR. Keep in mind some of the writers at FootballOutsiders don't pay much attention to every team. This writer in particular is a Giants fan, so I imagine he didn't take more than a cursory glance at the Redskin moves like we did.

[skeenzfan]

We gave up this years first and 4th in the champ bailey trade... :doh:

There goes his repo down the drain as far as i am concerned..

[allwet]

I wouldn't bash this site too much. Sometimes in their articles they push points, but they stick with what their statistics tell them for the most part. For example, when everyone else was down on Washington when they fell to 5-6, they were the one power ranking that did not drop them that much during that three game losing streak and in the overall 2-6 run in the middle of the season. I think they still had Washington at either #9 or #10 when they were 5-6.

They've also had some interesting articles in the past about how Rock Cartwright is a more effective running back than Carolina's Foster.

They may not always be right, but they are pretty consistent with their views and generally have an interesting point of view.