Apophis, 390m wide could hit Earth in 31 years time

[Thiebear]

We better not have sent that probe out to the comet for nothing... I expect a payper view showing as opposed to looking out the front window...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/space/article/0,14493,1660485,00.html

It's called Apophis. It's 390m wide. And it could hit Earth in 31 years time

Scientists call for plans to change asteroid's path Developing technology could take decades

Alok Jha

Wednesday December 7, 2005

The Guardian

In Egyptian myth, Apophis was the ancient spirit of evil and destruction, a demon that was determined to plunge the world into eternal darkness.

A fitting name, astronomers reasoned, for a menace now hurtling towards Earth from outerspace. Scientists are monitoring the progress of a 390-metre wide asteroid discovered last year that is potentially on a collision course with the planet, and are imploring governments to decide on a strategy for dealing with it.

Nasa has estimated that an impact from Apophis, which has an outside chance of hitting the Earth in 2036, would release more than 100,000 times the energy released in the nuclear blast over Hiroshima. Thousands of square kilometres would be directly affected by the blast but the whole of the Earth would see the effects of the dust released into the atmosphere.

And, scientists insist, there is actually very little time left to decide. At a recent meeting of experts in near-Earth objects (NEOs) in London, scientists said it could take decades to design, test and build the required technology to deflect the asteroid. Monica Grady, an expert in meteorites at the Open University, said: "It's a question of when, not if, a near Earth object collides with Earth. Many of the smaller objects break up when they reach the Earth's atmosphere and have no impact. However, a NEO larger than 1km [wide] will collide with Earth every few hundred thousand years and a NEO larger than 6km, which could cause mass extinction, will collide with Earth every hundred million years. We are overdue for a big one."

Apophis had been intermittently tracked since its discovery in June last year but, in December, it started causing serious concern. Projecting the orbit of the asteroid into the future, astronomers had calculated that the odds of it hitting the Earth in 2029 were alarming. As more observations came in, the odds got higher.

Having more than 20 years warning of potential impact might seem plenty of time. But, at last week's meeting, Andrea Carusi, president of the Spaceguard Foundation, said that the time for governments to make decisions on what to do was now, to give scientists time to prepare mitigation missions. At the peak of concern, Apophis asteroid was placed at four out of 10 on the Torino scale - a measure of the threat posed by an NEO where 10 is a certain collision which could cause a global catastrophe. This was the highest of any asteroid in recorded history and it had a 1 in 37 chance of hitting the Earth. The threat of a collision in 2029 was eventually ruled out at the end of last year.

Alan Fitzsimmons, an astronomer from Queen's University Belfast, said: "When it does pass close to us on April 13 2029, the Earth will deflect it and change its orbit. There's a small possibility that if it passes through a particular point in space, the so-called keyhole, ... the Earth's gravity will change things so that when it comes back around again in 2036, it will collide with us." The chance of Apophis passing through the keyhole, a 600-metre patch of space, is 1 in 5,500 based on current information.

There are no shortage of ideas on how to deflect asteroids. The Advanced Concepts Team at the European Space Agency have led the effort in designing a range of satellites and rockets to nudge asteroids on a collision course for Earth into a different orbit.

No technology has been left unconsidered, even potentially dangerous ideas such as nuclear powered spacecraft. "The advantage of nuclear propulsion is a lot of power," said Prof Fitzsimmons. "The negative thing is that ... we haven't done it yet. Whereas with solar electric propulsion, there are several spacecraft now that do use this technology so we're fairly confident it would work."

The favoured method is also potentially the easiest - throwing a spacecraft at an asteroid to change its direction. Esa plans to test this idea with its Don Quixote mission, where two satellites will be sent to an asteroid. One of them, Hidalgo, will collide with the asteroid at high speed while the other, Sancho, will measure the change in the object's orbit. Decisions on the actual design of these probes will be made in the coming months, with launch expected some time in the next decade. One idea that seems to have no support from astronomers is the use of explosives.

Prof Fitzsimmons. "If you explode too close to impact, perhaps you'll get hit by several fragments rather than one, so you spread out the area of damage."

In September, scientists at Strathclyde and Glasgow universities began computer simulations to work out the feasibility of changing the directions of asteroids on a collision course for Earth. In spring next year, there will be another opportunity for radar observations of Apophis that will help astronomers work out possible future orbits of the asteroid more accurately.

If, at that stage, they cannot rule out an impact with Earth in 2036, the next chance to make better observations will not be until 2013. Nasa has argued that a final decision on what to do about Apophis will have to be made at that stage.

"It may be a decision in 2013 whether or not to go ahead with a full-blown mitigation mission, but we need to start planning it before 2013," said Prof Fitzsimmons. In 2029, astronomers will know for sure if Apophis will pose a threat in 2036. If the worst-case scenarios turn out to be true and the Earth is not prepared, it will be too late. "If we wait until 2029, it would seem unlikely that you'd be able to do anything about 2036," said Mr Yates.

[EvoSkins]

All they got to do is send up a team of the world's best drillers, put some nukes in the center of the rock, then play Aerosmith music. Problem solved.

[Om]

Subject near and dear to my heart. If anyone's interested and/or bored, do a Tailgate search for "asteroid" and/or "nemesis" and you'll be entertained/edified all day.

Required bookmark for anyone interested in this particular subject:

http://neat.jpl.nasa.gov/

[SonnyRules]

Saw this earlier today and was wondering how much damage could a 390-metre wide asteroid do. How does that compare to the one that hit the Yucatan?

[GoCommiesGo]

All they got to do is send up a team of the world's best drillers, put some nukes in the center of the rock, then play Aerosmith music. Problem solved.

I see a bluepring has already been laid for this. Well doe EvoSkins. :applause:

[zoony]

If everyone looks west at a precise time, and blows as hard as they can, it should alter the speed at which the earth revolves around the sun and cause a miss.

[SkinzRool]

Hereis another article on the subject from Space.com

I don't know how the rest of you feel about this subject, but I'm actually quite confident that the scientists and engineers around the world today will be able to come up with a solution to this possible threat. If not, then I want to find out where the impact is going to be and I'll by a one way ticket there for the view. :2cents:

[DeanCollins]

http://www.urquhart.org/clanurquhartge/birthday_calculator.htm

And guess what day that falls on, you guessed it, Friday....the 13th.

Now I'm very concerned

:ahhhhh:

[jbooma]

Do we even have the ability to determine if something would hit?? I remember the last time Haley came by them all thought there was a chance it could get close enough to cause some issues, but they were way off.

This is the kind of science I love. I would love to work for NASA and work on things like this

[jbooma]

Hereis another article on the subject from Space.com

I don't know how the rest of you feel about this subject, but I'm actually quite confident that the scientists and engineers around the world today will be able to come up with a solution to this possible threat. If not, then I want to find out where the impact is going to be and I'll by a one way ticket there for the view. :2cents:

If this rock were to make a direct hit, then you wouldn't have to worry about where to go, since it could be the end of civilization as we know, we would all feel it sooner or later.

[wskin44]

If we put all cowboy fans on the thing and tell them to all talk at once the hot air would change it's direction. I'm sure that's god's special purpose for cowboy fans. Otherwise why would they be here?

[SkinzRool]

If this rock were to make a direct hit, then you wouldn't have to worry about where to go, since it could be the end of civilization as we know, we would all feel it sooner or later.

I realize that. I just want to see first hand what is going to destroy everything. I get up early to watch the Leonid meteor showers every November, so to me it would be absolutely amazing to see Apophis' flight across the sky for the few seconds it would be visible.

[Om]

Saw this earlier today and was wondering how much damage could a 390-metre wide asteroid do. How does that compare to the one that hit the Yucatan?

No, sir.

You’re talking about the Chixculib Crater, generally believed to have been about 10 kilometers wide. Extinction-level size. Fun stuff.

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/images/yucatan.html

At 390 meters, Apophis is a comparative pebble. Depending on where it hit and how well we adapted to a changed global environment, I suspect a decent portion of humanity would survive.

[Om]

Here, have some fun at lunch today:

Earth Impact Effects Program (Calculator)

[Spaceman Spiff]

not really concerned....i remember in 6th grade there was some talk of something similar happening and it never came to be. seems like every couple of years something like this is talked about and never happens.

[Om]

That's what they said on Jupiter, too.

All it takes is once.

[RabidFan]

2 words = Harry Stamper

[SonnyRules]

This type of science raises the hairs on the back of my neck.

The close approach of 99942 Apophis (previously better known by its provisional designation 2004 MN4) to the Earth and Moon on April 13, 2029

The small white bar indicates uncertainty in the range of possible positions

[rdsknbill]

All they got to do is send up a team of the world's best drillers, put some nukes in the center of the rock, then play Aerosmith music. Problem solved.

:rotflmao: :rotflmao: :rotflmao:

I was thinking the same thing Where are you Bruce Willis???!!!!!!

[zoony]

In the greater scheme of things, there are much greater geological risks that exist right here on earth that should be occupying our time... i.e. hotspots

And I also remember seeing shumaker-levy hitting Jupiter on live tv back in (96? I think?). Gotta say it was a little dissapointing to see. Just a few blury bright spots :jerk: But then I read something describing what a comet like that would do to the earth, were it to hit. Grab your ankles and kiss your own ass goodbye... not even Bruce Willis and Ben Affleck would save us from that one.

This meteor doesn't look so bad. And never forget the most highly probable scenario is that it will hit in the ocean somewhere. Not sure if that would cause a tidal wave though... probably would.

[Om]

Like I said ... for anyone interested in how impacts could affect Earth, take a couple minutes to play with the calculator:

http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/impacteffects/

You can feed in any parameters you want, from the size/composition of the object itself to what part of the planet it would impact (water/how deep, what kind of land). The results it gives you are comprehensive. Worth a look.

[SonnyRules]

Like I said ... for anyone interested in how impacts could affect Earth, take a couple minutes to play with the calculator:

http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/impacteffects/

You can feed in any parameters you want, from the size/composition of the object itself to what part of the planet it would impact (water/how deep, what kind of land). The results it gives you are comprehensive. Worth a look.

I played with it for a while and found it interesting that any object close to what we are talking about here will generate a 8.8 magnitude earthquake.....Ouch!

Do you know what year the Chesapeake Bay episode took place?

[zoony]

I played with it for a while and found it interesting that any object close to what we are talking about here will generate a 8.8 magnitude

earthquake.....Ouch!

interesting... I got 6.9 by choosing

390 m

45 degree of impact

17 (speed)

Density of asteroid is dense rock

Density of earth hit is crystalline

.......