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FanboyOf91

Official Trump Does East Asia Thread

386 posts in this topic

Yikes.

 

 

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Many of Trump’s most vocal advisors, on the other hand, appear to be mostly armchair China critics, who have spent limited or no time in China in the past two decades, as the country and Beijing’s priorities have changed dramatically. Not only do they not speak the language, they appear to have little to no experience interacting with China’s policymakers or understanding of how to negotiate with them. Here’s a rundown of the people analysts speculate were involved in his Dec. 2 call with Taiwan’s president Tsai Ing-wen, as Quartz reported earlier.

  •  
  • Edwin Feulner (age 75), former president of conservative think-tank The Heritage Foundation, who wrote a 1976 book about China and the country’s “turning point” that is no longer in print.
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  • Reince Priebus (age 44), Trump’s incoming chief of staff, who visited Taiwan in October of 2015, but does not appear to have traveled to mainland China. He walked back Trump’s “One China” comments over the weekend.
  •  
  • Peter Navarro (age 67), a Trump economic advisor known as his “muse” on China. The hard-line China critic’s “dangerous” views on China are so “radical,” the New Yorker reports, that no other economist supports them.
  •  
  • Bob Dole (age 93), former Republican presidential nominee, who last served as senator twenty years ago.
  •  
  • Jeff Session (age 69), Trump’s attorney-general nominee, who pushed a bill in 2011 to impose tariffs on Chinese goods to punish Beijing for manipulating its currency. The bill would spark a trade war, Chinese analysts said.

Double yikes.

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Hopefully the new president will receive a briefing from his Treasury secretary on recent foreign-exchange developments once he takes office. For over a year, the People’s Bank of China has been doing the opposite of what Trump claims: selling foreign currency in exchange for yuan USDCNY, +0.1138%   in an attempt to slow the effects of capital flight.

 

“The Treasury Department has come up with three criteria to judge if a country is engaged in currency manipulation,” says Dan Griswold, co-director of the Program on the American Economy and Globalization at George Mason University’s Mercatus Center.

 

“China meets one of the three,” putting it behind Japan, Korea and Germany, for example, on the potential manipulator’s list.

 

When the Treasury last analyzed foreign-exchange policies of the U.S.’s major trading partners for its semiannual report in October, it found that no country satisfied all three criteria. China’s single infraction was its large bilateral trade surplus with the U.S. It got a pass on the other two criteria: China is no longer engaged in one-sided foreign-exchange intervention, and its “material” current account surplus had shrunk.

Yeah, good luck with the currency manipulator thing, Don.

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So basically China is in late 2007/early 2008 situation, with only fewer straight up debts written off as losses keeping the whole house of cards from collapsing.

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Posted (edited)

 

Him and Trump are going to run circles around each other.

 

Edited by FanboyOf91

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18 minutes ago, FanboyOf91 said:

a.k.a. Trump finally went to the daily briefing.

 

I don't see that tweet as provoking either of them.  

 

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Yup, just what you would expect from the kid who wait until the last moment to start studying the course material.

 

 

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I see it as a statement of two facts.  I'd like to see the US lean on China harder to get their dog on a leash.  Perhaps trump will agree to keep the Taiwan policy the same of they get NK in check.

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18 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

 Perhaps trump will agree to keep the Taiwan policy the same of they get NK in check.

 

Worthless. China knows no important country will follow Trump in recognizing the RoC. Also, why would the 1.3 billion citizens of the PRC who consider Taiwan a part of China give a **** about NK getting nukes if Trump threatens their country?

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Posted (edited)

1 hour ago, FanboyOf91 said:

a.k.a. Trump finally went to the daily briefing.

Ugh.  Trump acts like such a child.

Edited by visionary

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57 minutes ago, FanboyOf91 said:

 

Worthless. China knows no important country will follow Trump in recognizing the RoC. Also, why would the 1.3 billion citizens of the PRC who consider Taiwan a part of China give a **** about NK getting nukes if Trump threatens their country?

Maybe you're right.  There has to be something to compel them though.  And I feel like we should be pressing them to get NK in check.

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1 minute ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

Maybe you're right.  There has to be something to compel them though.  And I feel like we should be pressing them to get NK in check.

 

. . . . and you simply start from the assumption that we aren't doing the best we can, already. 

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3 minutes ago, Larry said:

 

. . . . and you simply start from the assumption that we aren't doing the best we can, already. 

Well I feel we need to do better.  Is wanting that wrong?  I'm fine with discussing ideas to make it happen and am not trying to pretend I have all the answers.  But I think a NK with nukes is one of the biggest threats to global security right now and I see china as the best bet to get them in line.

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17 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

Well I feel we need to do better.  Is wanting that wrong?  I'm fine with discussing ideas to make it happen and am not trying to pretend I have all the answers.  But I think a NK with nukes is one of the biggest threats to global security right now and I see china as the best bet to get them in line.

 

NK has nukes.  

 

20 years from now, they're going to have nukes.  

 

No nation has ever lost that capability.  And I really don't see there being any way of causing it.  

 

Maybe it could be done, with a big enough bribe.  Lord knows, they're poor enough that maybe there's a slim chance, somewhere in the Universe.  But I really don;t see it happening.  It would be a miracle.  

 

I sure don't think there's any other possible way.  

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50 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

Maybe you're right.  There has to be something to compel them though.  And I feel like we should be pressing them to get NK in check.

 It seemed like they were at least taking steps away for a while.

 

 

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24 minutes ago, Larry said:

 

NK has nukes.  

 

20 years from now, they're going to have nukes.  

 

No nation has ever lost that capability.  And I really don't see there being any way of causing it.  

 

Maybe it could be done, with a big enough bribe.  Lord knows, they're poor enough that maybe there's a slim chance, somewhere in the Universe.  But I really don;t see it happening.  It would be a miracle.  

 

I sure don't think there's any other possible way.  

Serious question.  Are you saying there is nothing more we can do so no point in trying?  I'm really just trying to figure out your stance.  For me, I figure if we can't keep them from having it, maybe we can at least stop them from getting a way to deliver them around the world.

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I don't think getting them to become non-nuclear is impossible.  Might be nice, but not gonna happen.  

 

Now, maybe shutting down their weapons research might be possible.  Although I assume it would be a heck of a job.  

 

A big part of the problem is, we don't have any leverage, there.  

 

The military option is off the table.  They have too many hostages.  (Unless NK does something monumentally stupid.  Which is possible, but I really hope it never happens.  It would take something like using a nuke on Japan, or something similar.)  

 

The economic option is mostly off the table.  They don't have any economy, and their government is cool with that.  

 

We have some leverage in China.  (But not a lot.)  And China has some leverage in NK.  (But not a lot.)

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