AP News: Report: Army could be near breaking point

Report: Army could be near breaking point

Rapid troop rotations threaten institution, Pentagon-sponsored study says

Filippo Monteforte / AFP - Getty Images

A new Pentagon-sponsored report says the Army cannot sustain the pace of troop deployments to Iraq long enough to break the back of the insurgency.

Updated: 6:00 p.m. ET Jan. 24, 2006

WASHINGTON - Stretched by frequent troop rotations to Iraq and Afghanistan, the Army has become a “thin green line” that could snap unless relief comes soon, according to a study for the Pentagon.

Andrew Krepinevich, a retired Army officer who wrote the report under a Pentagon contract, concluded that the Army cannot sustain the pace of troop deployments to Iraq long enough to break the back of the insurgency. He also suggested that the Pentagon’s decision, announced in December, to begin reducing the force in Iraq this year was driven in part by a realization that the Army was overextended.

As evidence, Krepinevich points to the Army’s 2005 recruiting slump — missing its recruiting goal for the first time since 1999 — and its decision to offer much bigger enlistment bonuses and other incentives.

“You really begin to wonder just how much stress and strain there is on the Army, how much longer it can continue,” he said in an interview. He added that the Army is still a highly effective fighting force and is implementing a plan that will expand the number of combat brigades available for rotations to Iraq and Afghanistan.

The 136-page report represents a more sobering picture of the Army’s condition than military officials offer in public. While not released publicly, a copy of the report was provided in response to an Associated Press inquiry.

‘Race against time’

Illustrating his level of concern about strain on the Army, Krepinevich titled one of his report’s chapters, “The Thin Green Line.”

He wrote that the Army is “in a race against time” to adjust to the demands of war “or risk ‘breaking’ the force in the form of a catastrophic decline” in recruitment and re-enlistment.

Col. Lewis Boone, spokesman for Army Forces Command, which is responsible for providing troops to war commanders, said it would be “a very extreme characterization” to call the Army broken. He said his organization has been able to fulfill every request for troops that it has received from field commanders.

The Krepinevich assessment is the latest in the debate over whether the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have worn out the Army, how the strains can be eased and whether the U.S. military is too burdened to defeat other threats.

Rep. John Murtha, the Pennsylvania Democrat and Vietnam veteran, created a political storm last fall when he called for an early exit from Iraq, arguing that the Army was “broken, worn out” and fueling the insurgency by its mere presence. Administration officials have hotly contested that view.

Ex-NATO commander agrees

George Joulwan, a retired four-star Army general and former NATO commander, agrees the Army is stretched thin.

“Whether they’re broken or not, I think I would say if we don’t change the way we’re doing business, they’re in danger of being fractured and broken, and I would agree with that,” Joulwan told CNN last month.

Krepinevich did not conclude that U.S. forces should quit Iraq now, but said it may be possible to reduce troop levels below 100,000 by the end of the year. There now are about 136,000, Pentagon officials said Tuesday.

For an Army of about 500,000 soldiers — not counting the thousands of National Guard and Reserve soldiers now on active duty — the commitment of 100,000 or so to Iraq might not seem an excessive burden. But because the war has lasted longer than expected, the Army has had to regularly rotate fresh units in while maintaining its normal training efforts and reorganizing the force from top to bottom.

At odds with Rumsfeld

Krepinevich’s analysis, while consistent with the conclusions of some outside the Bush administration, is in stark contrast with the public statements of Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and senior Army officials.

Army Secretary Francis Harvey, for example, opened a Pentagon news conference last week by denying the Army was in trouble. “Today’s Army is the most capable, best-trained, best-equipped and most experienced force our nation has fielded in well over a decade,” he said, adding that recruiting has picked up.

Rumsfeld has argued that the experience of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan has made the Army stronger, not weaker.

“The Army is probably as strong and capable as it ever has been in the history of this country,” he said in an appearance at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies in Washington on Dec. 5. “They are more experienced, more capable, better equipped than ever before.”

Aid to the enemy?

Krepinevich said in the interview that he understands why Pentagon officials do not state publicly that they are being forced to reduce troop levels in Iraq because of stress on the Army. “That gives too much encouragement to the enemy,” he said, even if a number of signs, such as a recruiting slump, point in that direction.

Krepinevich is executive director of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, a nonprofit policy research institute.

He said he concluded that even Army leaders are not sure how much longer they can keep up the unusually high pace of combat tours in Iraq before they trigger an institutional crisis. Some major Army divisions are serving their second yearlong tours in Iraq, and some smaller units have served three times.

Michael O’Hanlon, a military expert at the private Brookings Institution, said in a recent interview that “it’s a judgment call” whether the risk of breaking the Army is great enough to warrant expanding its size.

“I say yes. But it’s a judgment call, because so far the Army isn’t broken,” O’Hanlon said.

© 2006 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11009829/page/2/

Im planning on joining once I graduate college in May.

Everyone could have predicted this. When you spread troops around the globe you become like every empire before you and make yourself vulnerable.

HIGH FIVE GRANT!!!!!!!!!

PSYCHE!

Relax on the America Sucks articles.

I'm waiting for the "cowards cut and run" comments, you know they'll show up.

HIGH FIVE GRANT!!!!!!!!!

PSYCHE!

Relax on the America Sucks articles.

who said America sucks...most of the articles I have posted have been the focal point of discussion in America...

-Grant

HIGH FIVE GRANT!!!!!!!!!

PSYCHE!

Relax on the America Sucks articles.

Where does thisw article say "America Sucks"??? It says exactly what is going on right now with our armed forces, yet no one will admit the obvious.

atleast the article isnt saying the troops are terrorists and eating babies, thats a positive

I know you'd and others would like nothing more than for this to be true.

Hate to burst your bubble, but the Armed Forces will do whatever it takes to get the mission done

Threads started by Grant pointing out problems with the US economy or the war effort or just general bad stuff:

AP News: Report: Army could be near breaking point

BBC NEWS: 'We're the end of the American dream'

President Bush's Speech today (started solely so he could ridicule the President of the United States for 20 posts)

Fox News: Venezuelan VP to Sen. McCain: 'Go to Hell'

CNN: Stocks tank on Wall Street

AP News/Yahoo News: Pakistani Ruling Party Demands U.S. Apology

Edit: All in the last 4 days.

Threads started by Grant pointing out problems with the US economy or the war effort or just general bad stuff:

AP News: Report: Army could be near breaking point

BBC NEWS: 'We're the end of the American dream'

President Bush's Speech today (started solely so he could ridicule the President of the United States for 20 posts)

Fox News: Venezuelan VP to Sen. McCain: 'Go to Hell'

CNN: Stocks tank on Wall Street

AP News/Yahoo News: Pakistani Ruling Party Demands U.S. Apology

Edit: All in the last 4 days.

Hey the got to hell one was funny

-Grant

Threads started by Grant pointing out problems with the US economy or the war effort or just general bad stuff:

AP News: Report: Army could be near breaking point

BBC NEWS: 'We're the end of the American dream'

President Bush's Speech today (started solely so he could ridicule the President of the United States for 20 posts)

Fox News: Venezuelan VP to Sen. McCain: 'Go to Hell'

CNN: Stocks tank on Wall Street

AP News/Yahoo News: Pakistani Ruling Party Demands U.S. Apology

Ha8tr

Threads started by Grant pointing out problems with the US economy or the war effort or just general bad stuff:

AP News: Report: Army could be near breaking point

BBC NEWS: 'We're the end of the American dream'

President Bush's Speech today (started solely so he could ridicule the President of the United States for 20 posts)

Fox News: Venezuelan VP to Sen. McCain: 'Go to Hell'

CNN: Stocks tank on Wall Street

AP News/Yahoo News: Pakistani Ruling Party Demands U.S. Apology

Edit: All in the last 4 days.

Should I go back and research all of the threads started by Conservatives?...you forgot one "Washington Post:Closed-Door Deal Makes $22 Billion Difference..GOP Criticized"

-Grant

Should I go back and research all of the threads started by Conservatives?...you forgot one "Washington Post:Closed-Door Deal Makes $22 Billion Difference..GOP Criticized"

-Grant

Hey man, go ahead and deflect all you want. Fact is, you start a lot of threads, and most of them can be seen as Anti-America. Now, you are entitled to post whatever you want. But I am too, and im going to point out that it seems like you really dont like this country and take joy when something goes wrong with it such as the stock market faultering or auto workers losing their jobs. Now, im sure you can easily look at these issues in the abstract, as just letters on paper, and use them to take your little jabs at our President. Just wanted to make sure you knew what you looked like to others. Thats all.

Hey man, go ahead and deflect all you want. Fact is, you start a lot of threads, and most of them can be seen as Anti-America. Now, you are entitled to post whatever you want. But I am too, and im going to point out that it seems like you really dont like this country and take joy when something goes wrong with it such as the stock market faultering or auto workers losing their jobs. Now, im sure you can easily look at these issues in the abstract, as just letters on paper, and use them to take your little jabs at our President. Just wanted to make sure you knew what you looked like to others. Thats all.

What do you mean "Anti-American"?

To think that someone would actually be stupid enough to publish an article about this when we are in the middle of fighting a war against those who are searching for a way to defeat us.

Anyone ever heard the saying never let the enemy see your weaknesses? Yet some report them with vigor and shout them loud so our enemies can hear. Maybe because they secretly yearn for our failure:doh: Lets try not to give them any more ammunition then they already have.

To think that someone would actually be stupid enough to publish an article about this when we are in the middle of fighting a war against those who are searching for a way to defeat us.

Anyone ever heard the saying never let the enemy see your weaknesses? Yet some report them with vigor and shout them loud so our enemies can hear. Maybe because they secretly yearn for our failure:doh: Lets try not to give them any more ammunition then they already have.

If you think honest debate give the terrorists "ammunition" then so be it. . . For didn't the founder of the modern day republican party say, and I quote. . .

Too many people desire to suppress criticism simply because they think it will give some comfort to the enemy... if that comfort makes the enemy feel better for a few moments they are welcome to it.. because the maintenance of the right to criticism in the long run will do the country maintaining it a good deal more good than it will do the enemy."

That was 2 weeks after Pearl Harbor. . .

was he giving aid to the enemy too :doh:

Or, how about Teddy Roosevelt in 1918 during WWI

"To announce that there must be no criticism of the president.. is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonous to the American public."

Read those wuotes and absorb them for a while.

To think that someone would actually be stupid enough to publish an article about this when we are in the middle of fighting a war against those who are searching for a way to defeat us.

Anyone ever heard the saying never let the enemy see your weaknesses? Yet some report them with vigor and shout them loud so our enemies can hear. Maybe because they secretly yearn for our failure:doh: Lets try not to give them any more ammunition then they already have.

If you think honest debate give the terrorists "ammunition" then so be it. . . For didn't the founder of the modern day republican party say, and I quote. . .

Too many people desire to suppress criticism simply because they think it will give some comfort to the enemy... if that comfort makes the enemy feel better for a few moments they are welcome to it.. because the maintenance of the right to criticism in the long run will do the country maintaining it a good deal more good than it will do the enemy."

That was 2 weeks after Pearl Harbor. . .

was he giving aid to the enemy too :doh:

Or, how about Teddy Roosevelt in 1918 during WWI

"To announce that there must be no criticism of the president.. is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonous to the American public."

Read those quotes and absorb them for a while.

If you think honest debate give the terrorists "ammunition" then so be it. . . For didn't the founder of the modern day republican party say, and I quote. . .

That was 2 weeks after Pearl Harbor. . .

was he giving aid to the enemy too :doh:

Or, how about Teddy Roosevelt in 1918 during WWI

Read those wuotes and absorb them for a while.

Can't argue with that...As conservative as I may be (not Repub., but conservative) those are two great quotes. But they are also taken in context. I wonder what the rest of the statements in those speeches were.

HIGH FIVE GRANT!!!!!!!!!

PSYCHE!

Relax on the America Sucks articles.

:notworthy :applause:

HIGH FIVE GRANT!!!!!!!!!

PSYCHE!

Relax on the America Sucks articles.

Jesus Christ, when did they reinstate the Sedition acts? God forbid someone questions America's capabilities. Just because we don't blindly believe that America can't be beaten doesn't mean that we want America to be beaten. If anything it means that we want what's best for this country.

It's more liberal media drivel!

Wait, this was sponsored by the Pentagon?

Uh, uh...This poster sucks.

---------

PleaseBlitz's suggested thread topics...

AP News: Report: No military member killed today

BBC NEWS: Ford allows workers to explore other options in booming Detroit economy

President Bush's Spoke today for 2 hours on the importance of good ranch maintenance

Fox News: Venezuelan VP to Sen. McCain: Loved you in Something About Mary!

CNN: Stocks make correction based on solid market economics, Bushanomics

AP News/Yahoo News: Pakistani Ruling Party Loves taking orders from US

Is that better? How about a chicken crossing the road without getting hit?

If it bleeds, it leads. That's news-dissemination 101.

Chomerics there is a big difference between discussion and dissent, and publicly reporting major weaknesses in our armed forces abilities to wage war in the future.

(whether its true or not). Tactical disadvantages and shortcomings that could be used to fight us more effectively anywhere in the world should not to be openly discussed IMO

I am sure this will be marginalized by our left leaning friends who want to believe anything negative about the good old US of A ....

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,182769,00.html

Rumsfeld: Army Not Stretched Too Thin

Wednesday, January 25, 2006

Pentagon Denied Bremer's Request for More Troops in 2004

WASHINGTON — Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld on Wednesday disputed reports suggesting that the U.S. military is stretched thin and close to a snapping point from operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, asserting "the force is not broken."

"This armed force is enormously capable," Rumsfeld told reporters at a Pentagon briefing. "In addition, it's battle hardened. It's not a peacetime force that has been in barracks or garrisons."

Rumsfeld spoke a day after The Associated Press reported that an unreleased study conducted for the Pentagon said the Army is being overextended, thanks to the two wars, and may not be able to retain and recruit enough troops to defeat the insurgency in Iraq.

Congressional Democrats released a report Wednesday that also concluded the U.S. military is under severe stress.

Reports suggesting that the U.S. military is close to the breaking point "is just not consistent with the facts," he said.

In an apparent shot at the Democratic Clinton administration, Rumsfeld said a number of components of the armed forces were underfunded during the 1990s, "and there were hollow pieces to it. Today, that's just not the case."

Click link to continue....

Interesting statistic....

He said there were over 1.4 million active U.S. troops, and some 2 million -- counting National Guard and Reserve units -- of which only 138,000 people were in Iraq.

3.4 million troops with 138,000 in Iraq or 4% of our forces.