Ancalagon the Black Posted October 4, 2004 Share Posted October 4, 2004 They don't mean anything until October. They don't mean anything until October. They don't mean anything until October. Well, guess what? It's crunch time. Here are my favorites (I click on them every day): www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html - conservative blogger www.electoral-vote.com - liberal blogger www.race2004.net - liberal blogger www.strategisphere.com/simulation.htm - impartial site using the much vaunted "Monte Carlo" statistical method (Stats 101, anyone?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Posted October 4, 2004 Share Posted October 4, 2004 So essentially, four more years of G Dub, is what I'm seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ancalagon the Black Posted October 5, 2004 Author Share Posted October 5, 2004 POLL MANIA, I say!! As long as someone else responds in between my posts, I will not be violated Internet etiquette rules by bumping this thread every time there's an update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Posted October 5, 2004 Share Posted October 5, 2004 :laughs: Good one. I'll bump it for you also. So what's your take on this? Do these polls seem like reasonable predictors? Or is there some underlying flaw to the data-gathering that I'm not seeing from my oh-so-cursory glance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ancalagon the Black Posted October 5, 2004 Author Share Posted October 5, 2004 Originally posted by Ghost of Nibbs McPimpin So what's your take on this? Do these polls seem like reasonable predictors? Or is there some underlying flaw to the data-gathering that I'm not seeing from my oh-so-cursory glance? I don't know if the sites will be accurate predictors. I think their strength lies in their ability to hypothesize the result of the election were it held today. You'd think that just looking at your standard AP or CBS poll could do that, but it cannot because it doesn't have a useful formula for projecting the electoral vote. Viewing the trends in these projections is more interesting than the static picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted October 5, 2004 Share Posted October 5, 2004 How about the two polls that Show Bush with a 5-6 point lead that came out yesterday. Washingtonpost and Pew (respectively). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DjTj Posted October 5, 2004 Share Posted October 5, 2004 These sites are great. Thanks Ancalagon! It should be real interesting to see where they go over the course of this week. The polls are all moving pretty fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prosperity Posted October 6, 2004 Share Posted October 6, 2004 4 more years :puke: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ancalagon the Black Posted October 6, 2004 Author Share Posted October 6, 2004 Originally posted by visionary How about the two polls that Show Bush with a 5-6 point lead that came out yesterday. Washingtonpost and Pew (respectively). Included in these sites. They use a formula that incorporates many polls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinsHokieFan Posted October 6, 2004 Share Posted October 6, 2004 These sites have been real interesting. I have enjoyed watching them change. Right now it honestly seems that Kerry will ahave to dig up some serious dirt on Bush or Bush himself is just going to have to throw these debates to lose. It will not be a landslide but it'll be enough to win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
portisizzle Posted October 6, 2004 Share Posted October 6, 2004 Bump this, it got on page two and was hard to find. i love the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kilmer17 Posted October 6, 2004 Share Posted October 6, 2004 Im beginning to think that polls dont mean anything even now. None have showed a consistent pattern and when one contradicts another, it throw the whole thing up in the air. It might be better to start looking at issue polls to get a better idea. Use 2002 as an example. Most polls even on election day showed Max Cleland with a comfortable (outside the margin) lead over Saxby Chambliss. I pointed out at the time that I thought that would be the big upset and was right. WHY? Because I saw the Confed flag poll in GA and it was overwhleming. Issues like Gay Marriage, abortion, the draft. All probably are a better indicator about who will win specific states than a sample poll of likely or registered voters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooper Posted October 6, 2004 Share Posted October 6, 2004 New Post poll shows it's a two point gap now. It was five two days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ancalagon the Black Posted October 8, 2004 Author Share Posted October 8, 2004 What a difference a week makes. Check dem out now. Think the debate tonight will be at all important, anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinsHokieFan Posted October 8, 2004 Share Posted October 8, 2004 I think one poll we forget ATB is the futures market on this election. Right now, (about an hour before the debate) money is riding on Dubya to win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCS Posted October 8, 2004 Share Posted October 8, 2004 Just a tad. Watched the news before and after the first debate, and the talking heads were saying that debates rarely change the outcome of an election or at least translate to a longer term, ( read: a few days after). Gore's bland performance in the first one between he and now President Bush being an exception not the rule. But does appear as though the first one did change some minds. If you believe in that kind of thing. Hmmmmmmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ancalagon the Black Posted October 12, 2004 Author Share Posted October 12, 2004 Polls are now indicating that Bush is beginning to pull away again. Projected Senate: 51 Republicans, 49 Democrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thiebear Posted October 12, 2004 Share Posted October 12, 2004 Wasnt Gore down by a lot October 30th? Edit: And its not fair: Republicans voting on Tuesday and Democrats voting on Wednesday.. they get to see how many votes they need the night before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kilmer17 Posted October 13, 2004 Share Posted October 13, 2004 The GOP is going to gain 3 or 4 seats in the senate unless Kerry wins in a landslide including the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
portisizzle Posted October 14, 2004 Share Posted October 14, 2004 I , again, love this thread. These polls are getting very interesting...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dexter's Better Posted October 15, 2004 Share Posted October 15, 2004 Key states to watch: WI / OH / IA / NJ. If, by some miracle, Bush wins NJ the election is over by 9:00 pm EST November 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kilmer17 Posted October 15, 2004 Share Posted October 15, 2004 Bush isnt going to win NJ. Kerry will carry it by 10 plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dexter's Better Posted October 15, 2004 Share Posted October 15, 2004 I agree he probably won't win NJ (Dem's know they would lose that state if the governor had resigend prior to the election) that is why I said by some miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Gichin13 Posted October 15, 2004 Share Posted October 15, 2004 tag, missed that Monte Carlo statistical regression analysis, that was interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dexter's Better Posted October 16, 2004 Share Posted October 16, 2004 And a heads up recent poll show Bush 42% Kerry 42% Nader 2% in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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