The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[MrJL]

what's going to happen wth QBs being replaced in all these rumored moves?  Like if Philly does acquire a big name guy then one of Hurts and Minshew would be moving

[MrJL]

7 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

That's fine, as long as we're prepared for the almost certain fact that the 2nd round QB will never do anything. The success rate for QBs taken after the 1st round is abysmal.

 

And we don't actually know what many scouts are saying. We've had one or two reporters claim they talked with an unnamed official who said they didn't have any of the guys as 1st rounders, but nothing beyond that. 

 

And whatever we did with Sweat and that 2nd round pick wouldn't have made any difference. At the end of the day you need a QB. Without one, you're basically just lost in the wilderness of other average teams who have no QB.

there's more average teams than elite teams.  Average teams make the playoffs and then anything can happen.

 

And in the NFC East there's currently only one first round QB and he's arguably the 4th or 5th most successful in the division

 

sorry for the double post

Edited March 1, 2022 by MrJL

[VirginiaVibes]

4 minutes ago, MrJL said:

what's going to happen wth QBs being replaced in all these rumored moves?  Like if Philly does acquire a big name guy then one of Hurts and Minshew would be moving

 

If Wilson goes to the Eagles I assume the Seahawks would be getting Hurts. 

 

And I can't imagine anyone cares where Minshew will go. 

[MrJL]

1 minute ago, VirginiaVibes said:

 

If Wilson goes to the Eagles I assume the Seahawks would be getting Hurts. 

 

And I can't imagine anyone cares where Minshew will go. 

 

from what I've seen people still like him

[mistertim]

4 minutes ago, MrJL said:

there's more average teams than elite teams.  Average teams make the playoffs and then anything can happen.

 

And in the NFC East there's currently only one first round QB and he's arguably the 4th or 5th most successful in the division

 

sorry for the double post

 

Some average teams without a good QB might reach the playoffs (especially if they're in a weak division), but they usually get eliminated relatively qiuckly. The teams that are contenders every year have top QBs.

 

If we go with Trubisky and a 2nd round QB it's very likely that we'll be QB shopping again within 2 years, and by that time it probably means Ron is also gone after another 2 poor or mediocre seasons.

 

How depressing.

[MrJL]

2 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Some average teams without a good QB might reach the playoffs (especially if they're in a weak division), but they usually get eliminated relatively qiuckly. The teams that are contenders every year have top QBs.

 

If we go with Trubisky and a 2nd round QB it's very likely that we'll be QB shopping again within 2 years, and by that time it probably means Ron is also gone after another 2 poor or mediocre seasons.

 

How depressing.

 

hey, maybe we're adopting the method that so many are demanding, and if our second round QB doens't work out this year, we'll go for a first rounder next year

[Skinsinparadise]

49 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Oh for ****s sake. Seriously? They're thinking of going with Trubisky as their actual QB and not just a bridge for a 1st round rookie? Great. So we get a bust castoff from two teams and then take a flier on a later round QB who statistically has about a 5% chance of doing anything of note.

 

This should go over well.

 

I've posted Chad Ryan's stuff here and there but he's been wrong.  I don't think he makes stuff up, I do think he knows people there from his experience where he used to go to camp and do a blog.  But whomever his sources are they are hit and miss.  I recall years ago him reporting for example SF agreed to a trade for Kirk Cousins, which as we know never happened.  

 

The impression I get from Keim is the FAs are last resort and it would come with a QB from the draft but probably not from the first unless its Pickett.  

 

I get the vibe that if they don't hit on their big targets, they are going to throw stuff against the wall, reclamation project and rookie and if that doesn't work they try again in 2023.  I guess will see.

Edited March 1, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[mistertim]

5 minutes ago, MrJL said:

 

hey, maybe we're adopting the method that so many are demanding, and if our second round QB doens't work out this year, we'll go for a first rounder next year

 

Who exactly is demanding what method? That we ignore QB again and try to hope that a 2nd rounder we pick becomes the outlier and turns into a good NFL QB? What are you even talking about?

[DWinzit]

2 minutes ago, mistertim said:

If we go with Trubisky and a 2nd round QB it's very likely that we'll be QB shopping again within 2 years, and by that time it probably means Ron is also gone after another 2 poor or mediocre seasons.

 

How depressing.

Or Trubisky or the 2nd rounder proves to be a quality starter

Or next year they bring in a 1st rounder or big name QB....who knows what prima donna will make themselves available next year...Ron will keep trying to hit the homerun

[MrJL]

3 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Who exactly is demanding what method? That we ignore QB again and try to hope that a 2nd rounder we pick becomes the outlier and turns into a good NFL QB? What are you even talking about?

 

there's been people saying just draft  QB and then draft another QB.  Like Carolina did back when going with Clausen and then Newton.  And of course Rosen and Murray for the Cards

[mistertim]

5 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

Or Trubisky or the 2nd rounder proves to be a quality starter

Or next year they bring in a 1st rounder or big name QB....who knows what prima donna will make themselves available next year...Ron will keep trying to hit the homerun

 

I think Trubisky and a 2nd rounder both have about the same chance of becoming a good NFL QB: very small. Trubisky because he's already shown himself to be a mediocre at best NFL QB with very serious accuracy problems, and the 2nd rounder just based on the horrible success rate for QBs taken after the 1st.

 

And I don't think Ron has a whole lot of time and I think he knows it. Otherwise he wouldn't be wearing his QB desperation on his sleeve like he seems to be doing now.

 

1 minute ago, MrJL said:

 

there's been people saying just draft  QB and then draft another QB.  Like Carolina did back when going with Clausen and then Newton.  And of course Rosen and Murray for the Cards

 

Both of those teams followed those bad picks up by having the 1st overall pick in the draft.

 

That's not going to happen to us. 

Edited March 1, 2022 by mistertim

[wit33]

1 minute ago, mistertim said:

 

I think Trubisky and a 2nd rounder both have about the same chance of becoming a good NFL QB: very small. Trubisky because he's already shown himself to be a mediocre at best NFL QB with very serious accuracy problems, and the 2nd rounder just based on the horrible success rate for QBs taken after the 1st.

 

And I don't think Ron has a whole lot of time and I think he knows it. Otherwise he wouldn't be wearing his QB desperation on his sleeve like he seems to be doing now.

Is Trubisky that bad accuracy wise? Have you watched him a fair amount? Beginning to dig in on him a bit, but nothing much yet.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, wit33 said:

My recent intrigue with Trubisky is believing he’s a legit dual threat QB and that was never tapped into much at all in his career. Purely off stats and memory, it seemed most of his rush yards were broken plays. Maybe providing him with a dual threat scheme can uncap a level of consistent football. 
 

He had one 400 yard rushing season and that was by far his best season as a starter: threw for 24tds, rushed for 29 first downs, and team went 11-3. 

 

Mariota IMO is the best passer and better runner.  

 

 

 

But Trubisky IMO purely as a runner isn't that far behind. 

 

My impression on Trubisky

 

The good IMO:

 

A.  teammates seem to like him.  From what I've read he's not a vocal leader but he's a blend in with the guys kind of dude. 

 

B.  elusive in the pocket, he has some Heinicke like escapibility

 

C.  Good runner, not elite, but good, good vision as a runner

 

D.  Has good ability to roll in the pocket, run naked boots, and hit quick passes in the flat which fits Turner's offense well

 

E.  Has the size to take hits as a runner

 

 

The bad IMO:

 

A.  Poor accuracy especially when it comes to more challenging throws outside the flat.  Doesn't hit his receivers in stride as much as he should

 

B. Doesn't throw well with anticipation -- often waits for players to be open and then throws

 

B.  I''ve seen enough and read enough on this that my strong impression is he's not the anti-Alex Smith, anti-Fitzpatrick in that he's not one of the brighter QBs in the league.  I don't think he's dumb but relatively speaking among QBs I get the impression he's not one of the sharpest tools in the shed. 

 

C.  Bad at misdirecting defenses.  Doesn't sell play action well. Stares at receivers.  I'll say though in the preseason game he played for the Bills, he looked much improved on that front.

 

D.  his own teammate implied Trubisky is not good at readjusting the offense presnap (Peyton Manning style) to what the defense is showing him. Also, Trubisky himself admited that he has struggled to read defenses

Edited March 1, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

51 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

And I have been saying this since the beginning.

I wasn't fan of Trubisky at all. This is why I kept on saying if you are going to go this route then I rather just see TH instead. 

I can’t for the life of me understand why you would rather see TH than Trubisky.  The two players are rather similar, only Trubisky has an NFL arm.  
 

There’s just no logical reason to choose Heineke over Trubisky or Mariota.

[mistertim]

5 minutes ago, wit33 said:

Is Trubisky that bad accuracy wise? Have you watched him a fair amount? Beginning to dig in on him a bit, but nothing much yet.

 

I'm going based on watching him some (not a whole lot, but my friend is a huge Bears fan so I'll watch games with him sometimes) and on various numbers I've seen around. Many of them posted here by @Skinsinparadise

 

Trubisky's biggest asset is his athleticism. But IMO it's not nearly enough of an asset to really offset him not being a very good passer. 

 

1 minute ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I can’t for the life of me understand why you would rather see TH than Trubisky.  The two players are rather similar, only Trubisky has an NFL arm.  
 

There’s just no logical reason to choose Heineke over Trubisky or Mariota.

 

It's the Heinicke Hive. You have a better chance of intuitively grasping quantum mechanics with zero training in physics than understanding them.

Edited March 1, 2022 by mistertim

[Skinsinparadise]

11 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I'm going based on watching him some (not a whole lot, but my friend is a huge Bears fan so I'll watch games with him sometimes) and on various numbers I've seen around. Many of them posted here by @Skinsinparadise

 

Trubisky's biggest asset is his athleticism. But IMO it's not nearly enough of an asset to really offset him not being a very good passer. 

 

If I had to sum up Trubisky, really underrated athlete, he's a good runner in every way possible -- elusive in the pocket, elusive in open field, can take a hit. 

 

IMO He's in the league with Darnold as far as being inaccurate.  He's bad as a decision maker but not Darnold level bad.

 

I am not jazzed about Trubisky.  But thinking about him purely in the context of Turner's offense, I think he can run it better than Heinicke.  Why?  Because I think his accuracy in the flat isn't bad and probably beats Heinicke on that -- and he is willing to use his wheels to make gains.

 

But as us getting our QB of the future, you never know, but I'd bet big money that he's not that guy. 

 

The irony below is the Del Rio comments, funny in the context of FA now. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 1, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Zim489]

1 hour ago, VirginiaVibes said:

 

If this were to happen Ron and Co deserve to be fired into the sun. I cant watch another year with ineptitude at the position. Its totally not serious about winning anything of note.

[zCommander]

13 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I can’t for the life of me understand why you would rather see TH than Trubisky.  The two players are rather similar, only Trubisky has an NFL arm.  
 

There’s just no logical reason to choose Heineke over Trubisky or Mariota.

 

Let me repeat one more time since you didn't bother to read my previous points. Not a fan of Trubisky and he is not better than TH and I don't care if he has an NFL arm if it is inaccurate what is the point. Let that sink in. IF we are not going to land the big fishes then Mariota would be my preferred choice but you still draft a QB or you don't if the QB class next year is better which it should be. 

[Zim489]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

 

Oh for ****s sake. Seriously? They're thinking of going with Trubisky as their actual QB and not just a bridge for a 1st round rookie? Great. So we get a bust castoff from two teams and then take a flier on a later round QB who statistically has about a 5% chance of doing anything of note.

 

This should go over well.

They flat out dont understand the psoition. Get rid of them all. 

[MrJL]

20 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I can’t for the life of me understand why you would rather see TH than Trubisky.  The two players are rather similar, only Trubisky has an NFL arm.  
 

There’s just no logical reason to choose Heineke over Trubisky or Mariota.

 

if the odds are we're gonna fail, I'd rather fail cheaply, plus Heinicke's history makes him an underdog story who if he's playing poorly well what do you expect, while the other guys are failures who keep getting undeserved second chances merely because of their pedigree

 

26 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I think Trubisky and a 2nd rounder both have about the same chance of becoming a good NFL QB: very small. Trubisky because he's already shown himself to be a mediocre at best NFL QB with very serious accuracy problems, and the 2nd rounder just based on the horrible success rate for QBs taken after the 1st.

 

And I don't think Ron has a whole lot of time and I think he knows it. Otherwise he wouldn't be wearing his QB desperation on his sleeve like he seems to be doing now.

a case of either

 

Both of those teams followed those bad picks up by having the 1st overall pick in the draft.

 

That's not going to happen to us. 

 

I think Ron is not getting less than four seasons.  And I think if the QB we think is best and we want most is available at 42 then that means drafting him at 11 is a waste of a first round pick and we do not actually hurt his talent by waiting till the second

[Zim489]

1 hour ago, MrJL said:

I'd be quite happy with a second round QB to go with a free agent QB

7% hit rate on second round QBs. Derek Carr is the only second rounder to do anything since drew Brees

53 minutes ago, mistertim said:

and by that time it probably means Ron is also gone after another 2 poor or mediocre seasons.

Deservedly so. You cant go 4 offseasons with out taking a swing at QB. It would be among the worst Team building by a decision maker in a long time.

41 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

quality starter

Quality starter gets you no where.

Edited March 1, 2022 by Zim489

[MrJL]

1 minute ago, Zim489 said:

7% hit rate on second round QBs. Derek Carr is the only second rounder to do anything since drew Brees

 

multiple 3rd rounders and 4th rounders starting though either successfully or likely getting to prove themselves next year

 

Also, Hurts is a second rounder and Philly's incumbent, he'll likely start again next year

[Zim489]

39 minutes ago, mistertim said:

Both of those teams followed those bad picks up by having the 1st overall pick in the draft.

Yeah this team with an easier schedule will be drafting 15-20th next year. He'll have no chance to trade into the top 3-5 with out giving multiple years firsts away a la RG3. 

[Koolblue13]

I'm all in on Trubisky and Ridder. Lloyd in the first.

[mistertim]

1 minute ago, MrJL said:

 

multiple 3rd rounders and 4th rounders starting though either successfully or likely getting to prove themselves next year

 

Also, Hurts is a second rounder and Philly's incumbent, he'll likely start again next year

 

A handful of non 1st rounders out of probably a hundred picked. The success rate for non 1st round QBs is horrible. You can't just point to a few outliers who were successful and ignore the tons of them drafted who weren't.