2022 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Forever A Redskin]

Not sure if this has been posted but pretty good interview of Ron on the draft.

 

Sounds like QB is definitely in play later in the draft.

 

 

Edited April 23, 2022 by Forever A Redskin

[sebestian]

55 minutes ago, RWJ said:

So if Wilson is gone before #11, who would you like to see us draft at #11 and #47 if we stay put.  Myself, I've been saying a trade down is needed to fill holes and give us more depth.  If RR and Co. do pick at #11 and #47, who would you like to see us pick with those picks? 

 

Hamilton

Watson

[Going Commando]

14 minutes ago, method man said:

Santana Moss was a franchise cornerstone here for us for close to a decade

 

I think cornerstone is a generous description of his value during his time here, as he had one really great season and was never more than the third best and most important player on a bad offense for a team with a 10 win ceiling.  But we got him from the Jets via trade, we didn't draft him.  These guys hit the open market, especially in today's NFL.

 

I'm kind of stunned that it's some of the same group of posters who roasted me during the season for not agreeing that Terry McLaurin was an elite receiver that are the ones arguing for the need/value of a WR at 11.  I know you guys think Terry is a #1 receiver, and I do too.  You guys are overstating the importance/desperation of having an expensive #2.

[philibusters]

In terms of the receivers in this draft it seems to be that Treylon Burks who most mocks having going at the end of the first or start of the second may be the best value.  I seem to remember that people were saying his in game speed was impressive.  Like he was clocked at 21 mph.   It seems like he was really hurt by his 4.55 forty time, but if his in game speed was consistently better than his 40 time would indicate, I don't see his forty time as a red flag.   Just means he doesn't run well in shorts and a tee shirt.  At 6'2 225 pounds he is the biggest WR.   I get the 40 time hurt his status, but I don't quite understand why he has fallen so far.

Edited April 23, 2022 by philibusters

[Forever A Redskin]

46 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I'd be shocked if Metchie goes in the first round, I've seen no rumor or talk of that but I guess stranger things have happened.  Plenty believe Dotson creeps into the first round.  Some think Watson, personally I think Watson goes mid 2nd around our pick, ditto Metchie. Some think Skyy Moore albeit most think he goes early 2nd. Some think George Pickens who I am not as high on as the mock draft community. 

 

As for the league, judging by McGinn's scouts, which are personnel guys around the league ranking players, and his top 100 tends to be super accurate for that reason as for matching what happens on draft day versus the board -- in that range the scouts has Burks #5, Dotson #6, Moore #7, Metchie #8, Pickens #9, Pierce #10.

 

Do you have a link to McGinns big board? Or is it behind a paywall? I'd be interested to see it.

 

Also, any chance we have a better insight on Christian Watson due to Wentz's connections with the NDSU program?

 

If Terry has pull with the interest in Olave, I could see Wentz influencing the pick of Watson if we don't go WR in the 1st or trade back.

 

 

Edited April 23, 2022 by Forever A Redskin

[KDawg]

9 minutes ago, philibusters said:

In terms of the receivers in this draft it seems to be that Treylon Burks who most mocks having going at the end of the first or start of the second may be the best value.  I seem to remember that people were saying his in game speed was impressive.  Like he was clocked at 21 mph.   It seems like he was really hurt by his 4.55 forty time, but if his in game speed was consistently better than his 40 time would indicate, I don't see his forty time as a red flag.   Just means he doesn't run well in shorts and a tee shirt.  At 6'2 225 pounds he is the biggest WR.   I get the 40 time hurt his status, but I don't quite understand why he has fallen so far.

today I learned a 4.55 is slow.

[sebestian]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

today I learned a 4.55 is slow.

 

Tell em Kdawg, tell em.  Preach!!

[Forever A Redskin]

12 minutes ago, KDawg said:

today I learned a 4.55 is slow.

 

Malcom Kelly says hi.

 

Not saying you aren't right. But doesn't change the fact that it's a fast league. 4.5 is on the higher end for skill positions.

[sebestian]

6 minutes ago, Forever A Redskin said:

 

Malcom Kelly says hi.

 

Not saying you aren't right. But doesn't change the fact that it's a fast league. 4.5 is on the higher end for skill positions.

 

Like Mike Tyson always says....everyone is fast until they get smacked by the Hammer...

[KDawg]

15 minutes ago, Forever A Redskin said:

 

Malcom Kelly says hi.

 

Not saying you aren't right. But doesn't change the fact that it's a fast league. 4.5 is on the higher end for skill positions.

Bull****.

 

https://ftw.usatoday.com/lists/the-wide-receivers-who-ran-slow-at-the-nfl-combine-and-still-had-pretty-good-careers

 

Add Keenan Allen. Add Chad Johnson. Can probably find more examples if I look. 
 

You don’t play ball in shorts.

Edited April 23, 2022 by KDawg

[Skinsinparadise]

34 minutes ago, Forever A Redskin said:

 

Do you have a link to McGinns big board? Or is it behind a paywall? I'd be interested to see it.

 

Also, any chance we have a better insight on Christian Watson due to Wentz's connections with the NDSU program?

 

If Terry has pull with the interest in Olave, I could see Wentz influencing the pick of Watson if we don't go WR in the 1st or trade back.

 

 

 

It's a paywall, I don't have access to it but I know someone who does who shared some of it with me.  I might subscribe for a month this week just to get access.  Last year was easy because it was with the Athletic which I already subscribed to.   I just know some bits and pieces most of which I shared here already ala Wonderlic scores

Edited April 23, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Zim489]

 

[KDawg]

Just now, Zim489 said:

 

The amount of things being said in this thread that are getting out of control are adding up.

 

Derrick Henry has been among the best backs in the league other than last year when he got hurt. He’s not a top 5 fantasy guy because he isn’t a receiving back. 

[philibusters]

If Derrick Henry  hadn't got hurt last year midseason he probably would have been the top fantasy RB.   That said, RB is a young man's position.

[Fresh8686]

Question for the board, how much time does it take to make a false step, recover from it, and re-orient yourself? It depends on position and situation of course, but is it .2 seconds, .5 seconds, or more generally speaking?

 

If LB #1 runs a 4.41 and LB #2 runs a 4.55,

but LB#1 tends to consistently take false steps, who is truly the faster football player?

 

It seems important to me to take the time or have a process for properly adding or subtracting mental speed to physical speed when evaluating talent. But, how do people practically apply that process? 
 

I feel like this is especially important when evaluating Hamilton since he truly has elite mental speed and how you properly factor that into physical speed to properly evaluate play speed is key to getting the right take on guys like him. 
 

Too many people make the mistake of thinking physical speed equals play speed, especially during the combine. When instead it’s always essential to remember that mental speed +/- physical speed = play speed. 

Edited April 23, 2022 by Fresh8686

[KDawg]

24 minutes ago, Fresh8686 said:

Question for the board, how much time does it take to make a false step, recover from it, and re-orient yourself? It depends on position and situation of course, but is it .2 seconds, .5 seconds, or more generally speaking?

 

If LB #1 runs a 4.41 and LB #2 runs a 4.55,

but LB#1 tends to consistently take false steps, who is truly the faster football player?

 

It seems important to me to take the time or have a process for properly adding or subtracting mental speed to physical speed when evaluating talent. But, how do people practically apply that process? 
 

I feel like this is especially important when evaluating Hamilton since he truly has elite mental speed and how you properly factor that into physical speed to properly evaluate play speed is key to getting the right take on guys like him. 
 

Too many people make the mistake of thinking physical speed equals play speed, especially during the combine. When instead it’s always essential to remember that mental speed +/- physical speed = play speed. 

100%. there is a point where physical speed matters. Edit: I didn’t finish this thought

 

But only because if you’re sun dial slow you can’t run efficiently in pads. But in a game with cuts and movement and wearing a suit of armor what matters more is change of direction and ability to accelerate. 
 

How many times do you see dudes run straight lines in a game? Basically never. How many times do you see a guy run a straight line 40? Basically never.

 

Give me a guy who has good change of direction and can accelerate all day. 
 

And then you bring up false steps. Thank you. The guys I coach false step and it drives me nuts. Every year. It’s a pet peeve. Get to your destination efficiently. Train to be fast. And if people pay attention to the best speed trainers they are trying to train your body to move faster, but they are also teaching you to move efficiently through your gait, shoulder and arm positioning, etc. 

 

And what people never talk about is deceleration. If you’re in pursuit of a back breaking to the sideline and you’re taking a pursuit angle at him and he plants and goes inside you have to have the athleticism to throttle down, not over pursue over the top, plant and tackle. 
 

The best part of the 40 is seeing acceleration times and the flying 20 part.
 

But I like the new tech that tells you how fast a player is running in a game. That says a lot. A dude moving 21mph is hauling ass in armor.

 

To me, if there is data showing a guy moving at that pace in a game I could give a crap what you run in shorts. 
 

@Fresh8686 I finished my thought now  left the post half conceived before.

Edited April 23, 2022 by KDawg

[Fresh8686]

3 minutes ago, KDawg said:

100%. there is a point where physical speed matters. 
 

But I like the new tech that tells you how fast a player is running in a game. That says a lot. A dude moving 21mph is hauling ass in armor.

Yup, I prefer that and give it priority over 40 times. However, I also want to work towards a higher quality process of evaluation that is sophisticated enough to properly capture how play speed changes with proper or improper eye discipline, angle taking, false steps vs correctly diagnosed early steps, etc. 

 

When we don’t have that process habituated/routinized we are more vulnerable to the impact of half data from the combine and it swaying evaluation more than it should. 

[KDawg]

9 minutes ago, Fresh8686 said:

Yup, I prefer that and give it priority over 40 times. However, I also want to work towards a higher quality process of evaluation that is sophisticated enough to properly capture how play speed changes with proper or improper eye discipline, angle taking, false steps vs correctly diagnosed early steps, etc. 

 

When we don’t have that process habituated/routinized we are more vulnerable to the impact of half data from the combine and it swaying evaluation more than it should. 

I added more to the post above. I pressed send to go do real life and came back and finished.

 

But I’d argue we do have a system of evaluation to contextualize. 
 

Game film.

 

Agility drills. 
 

Rolling 20. 
 

Problem is that most people have no idea how to interpret those numbers. So they default to 40 because the “experts” use it and they believe the correlation is 1:1 from it. It’s not. It never is.

 

Thats why London’s speed doesn’t concern me. He ran 21mph in a game. In a suit of armor. I’m good with that. His cuts, breaks, body position, catch radius and hands are among the very best in the draft.

A few days ago someone said film lies. And you know what? It can. But only if you don’t know what you’re looking at. 
 

And to be clear, as people viewing from the outside without contacts and important conversations we are ALL flying blind. 

Edited April 23, 2022 by KDawg

[Fresh8686]

12 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I added more to the post above. I pressed send to go do real life and came back and finished.

 

But I’d argue we do have a system of evaluation to contextualize. 
 

Game film.

 

Agility drills. 
 

Rolling 20. 
 

Problem is that most people have no idea how to interpret those numbers. So they default to 40 because the “experts” use it and they believe the correlation is 1:1 from it. It’s not. It never is.

 

Thats why London’s speed doesn’t concern me. He ran 21mph in a game. In a suit of armor. I’m good with that. His cuts, breaks, body position, catch radius and hands are among the very best in the draft.

A few days ago someone said film lies. And you know what? It can. But only if you don’t know what you’re looking at. 

Lol, yup I completely agree with what you added and both posts. I feel the same way about London and Hamilton with their play speed so I’m excited to have either one of them.
 

This post of yours in particular gets to the point of why I wrote what I did in the first place. If you don’t take time to build a process and factor in principles like mental speed +/- physical speed = play speed than the evaluations are going to be off and that’s a mistake the media “experts” and some people in this thread make. 
 

We have to have levels to the process of our evaluations and pay attention and think about why coaches like yourself mark players down for false steps, bad angles, etc. and the impact it has on execution. We can’t get myopic and look at simple 40 times and come to sweeping conclusions about how successful a player can be. 
 

This **** is more complicated and nuanced than that, but it’s also what makes evaluations fun. 

[Forever A Redskin]

@KDawg

 

For what it's worth, 40 time isn't the end-all be-all for me. It's just a piece of the whole picture. The reason why its worrisome for players like London is that it's coupled with film that makes you question if he will have trouble separating at the NFL level. That's what makes you worry.

 

Film always comes first, but you're looking for combine/pro day numbers to back up what you see on film. And I typically focus on 10 yd splits, agility drills, and vert/broad over 40 time. That's why I value RAS Scores so much because I agree, you're looking for explosion and athleticism to change direction, stop/start etc.

 

As an armchair evaluator, Im looking for Film+RAS plus other advanced metrics that uncover potential diamonds in the rough.

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, Forever A Redskin said:

@KDawg

 

For what it's worth, 40 time isn't the end-all be-all for me. It's just a piece of the whole picture. The reason why its worrisome for players like London is that it's coupled with film that makes you question if he will have trouble separating at the NFL level. That's what makes you worry.

 

Film always comes first, but you're looking for combine/pro day numbers to back up what you see on film. And I typically focus on 10 yd splits, agility drills, and vert/broad over 40 time. That's why I value RAS Scores so much because I agree, you're looking for explosion and athleticism to change direction, stop/start etc.

 

As an armchair evaluator, Im looking for Film+RAS plus other advanced metrics that uncover potential diamonds in the rough.

But if you truly valuing film you’d see the separation he gets. He’s not a burner. That’s not his game. But it’s not Keenan Allen’s either. You don’t have to be a burner to get separation. 
 

He gets plenty of it.

 

Slovis throws him contested. 
 

And then RE: Hamilton… I don’t necessarily want him at 11. But the narrative he’s slow is wild. It may not be you saying it, honestly it’s hard to keep track. I don’t know if it’s you. So I’m just addressing this generally… but watch him play. 
 

He’s not slow. The legit criticism I see of him that makes sense is how he struggles a little to flip his hips and stay in stride when trailing in man. That’s fair criticism. But he generally doesn’t get in too much of a trail position to worry about it. 
 

Watch these dudes play football. Games. Not highlights. Guys who are players stick out like sore thumbs. 
 

Guys who are athletes flash and make great highlight reels but are invisible for large portions of games. 
 

How anyone can think London isn’t a good prospect or Hamilton isn’t a good prospect is wild to me. And, to be fair, I think it’s wild people don’t think Olave is good. I don’t want Olave for us at 11. But that dude can ball. 

[Forever A Redskin]

12 minutes ago, KDawg said:

But if you truly valuing film you’d see the separation he gets. He’s not a burner. That’s not his game. But it’s not Keenan Allen’s either. You don’t have to be a burner to get separation. 
 

He gets plenty of it.

 

Slovis throws him contested. 
 

And then RE: Hamilton… I don’t necessarily want him at 11. But the narrative he’s slow is wild. It may not be you saying it, honestly it’s hard to keep track. I don’t know if it’s you. So I’m just addressing this generally… but watch him play. 
 

He’s not slow. The legit criticism I see of him that makes sense is how he struggles a little to flip his hips and stay in stride when trailing in man. That’s fair criticism. But he generally doesn’t get in too much of a trail position to worry about it. 
 

Watch these dudes play football. Games. Not highlights. Guys who are players stick out like sore thumbs. 
 

Guys who are athletes flash and make great highlight reels but are invisible for large portions of games. 
 

How anyone can think London isn’t a good prospect or Hamilton isn’t a good prospect is wild to me. And, to be fair, I think it’s wild people don’t think Olave is good. I don’t want Olave for us at 11. But that dude can ball. 

 

Definitely wasn't me concerned with Hamilton's speed. I'm fine with him just question the positional value at 11 as a Safety/Buffalo. Especially when guys like Brisker&Pitre are available later.

 

And the main thing I've said that I worry about London is separation at the NFL level. He does separate, but it's not always, and it's against PAC-12 corners and the competition is questionable there. He's just boom or bust for me. Wouldnt love it, wouldn't hate it. His floor is a big slot who catches red zone balls and jump balls. We could do worse at 11. He could also be Arcega-Whiteside.

 

And I've been on record saying I definitely don't want Olave at 11 either.

Edited April 24, 2022 by Forever A Redskin

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Forever A Redskin said:

 

Definitely wasn't me concerned with Hamilton's speed. I'm fine with him just question the positional value at 11 as a Safety/Buffalo. Especially when guys like Brisker&Pitre are available later.

 

And the main thing I've said that I worry about London is separation at the NFL level. He does separate, but it's not always, and it's against PAC-12 corners and the competition is questionable there. He's just boom or bust for me. Wouldnt love it, wouldn't hate it. His floor is a big slot who catches red zone balls and jump balls. We could do worse at 11. He could also be Arcega-Whiteside.

 I didn’t love Arcega-Whiteside as a prospect.

 

So I went back to watch highlights to remind me of my thoughts on him. And it all came back.

 

A-W ran a lot of verticals and won jump balls on literal lobs. He didn’t run precise quick snap routes. He didn’t have great change of direction. He was just a big receiver. 
 

What separates London and A-W is London’s precise route running, the way he snaps in and out of routes and his ability to adjust to the ball. I think he’s faster, too. I can’t back that with empirical data, London didn’t run. But watching them play he looks faster, quicker. He’s definitely more quick twitch.

 

None of that means London is going to be a total stud, for what it’s worth. But he won’t be Arcega-Whiteside. He doesn’t even play the same style.

 

 

[CommanderCarson]

Question for the masses, is there a scenario that makes sense to bring back collins even if we do draft Hamilton?

 

Hamilton at free, Curl at Strong, Collins at Buffalo Nickel? McCain can play some slot and valuable depth role.

 

Or do you think drafting Hamilton precludes Landon from coming back altogether? Just wondering where we think a Hamilton would play and start year one and how that impacts our strategy after the draft.

[Warhead36]

3 minutes ago, CommanderCarson said:

Question for the masses, is there a scenario that makes sense to bring back collins even if we do draft Hamilton?

 

Hamilton at free, Curl at Strong, Collins at Buffalo Nickel? McCain can play some slot and valuable depth role.

 

Or do you think drafting Hamilton precludes Landon from coming back altogether? Just wondering where we think a Hamilton would play and start year one and how that impacts our strategy after the draft.

Too much redundancy and Collins wouldn't really have a place. Better off just rolling with Hamilton at BN with Curl at SS and McCain at FS. We'd be recreating what worked for us the best last year with Hamilton being an upgrade over Collins since he can actually cover.