The Plight of the 2021 Baltimore Orioles

[volsmet]

2020, blaze Jordan, a 16 year old who reclassified into next years class & just won the HS HR derby at the AS game.

 

 

2021:

 

 

 

 

 

[Hersh]

50 minutes ago, justice98 said:

Gotta have some patience with this.  

 

Half a season into a total organizational rebuild and you're already out of patience?  lol

 

Did you actually read what I wrote? Cause that’s not at all what I said. 

[volsmet]

I’d like to congratulate Tampa on the no hitter.

 

 

[volsmet]

[Hersh]

Michael Baumann for Bowie: 9 innings, 0 hits, 2 walks, 10 Ks. 

 

He's now thrown 27 innings for Bowie. He's given up 10 hits, 8 walks, and 1 (earned) run for a 0.33 ERA. Oh, 32 Ks too. 

[Spaceman Spiff]

Nice performance from Baumann.  A no hitter at any level has to be a thrill.  Hopefully he can turn himself into a prospect.

[Hersh]

11 minutes ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

Nice performance from Baumann.  A no hitter at any level has to be a thrill.  Hopefully he can turn himself into a prospect.

 

He’s a legit prospect. It’s why rating systems are so flawed. Throws 98, hard slider, good change up. He’s been good to great since he came into the league in 2017. He will be in Baltimore mid-season next year 

[Spaceman Spiff]

5 minutes ago, Hersh said:

 

He’s a legit prospect. It’s why rating systems are so flawed. Throws 98, hard slider, good change up. He’s been good to great since he came into the league in 2017. He will be in Baltimore mid-season next year 

 

We'll see.  Quite frankly, with the way the Orioles have developed pitching over the years I'll believe it when I see it.  Maybe that's changed now that Elias and Sig are here but I've just gotten excited about an Orioles prospect one too many times in my life.

[Hersh]

3 minutes ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

 

We'll see.  Quite frankly, with the way the Orioles have developed pitching over the years I'll believe it when I see it.  Maybe that's changed now that Elias and Sig are here but I've just gotten excited about an Orioles prospect one too many times in my life.

 

I didn't say he will succeed in the majors cause who knows. I just meant that he’s a legit prospect for the O’s.

[volsmet]

1 hour ago, Hersh said:

 

He’s a legit prospect. It’s why rating systems are so flawed. Throws 98, hard slider, good change up. He’s been good to great since he came into the league in 2017. He will be in Baltimore mid-season next year 

 

He was a 23 year old getting his ass kicked in high a last year. 

[DCSaints_fan]

1 hour ago, volsmet said:

 

He was a 23 year old getting his ass kicked in high a last year. 

 

Getting his ass kicked?  http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=657508#/career/R/pitching/2019/ALL

 

YEAR	TEAM	LG	LEVEL	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	SVO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	HB	BB	IBB	SO	AVG	WHIP	GO/AO
Minors Career [+]	5 teams		Minors	20	12	2.69	51	48	3	1	1	1	254.0	182	87	76	13	3	104	0	258	.200	1.13	0.81
2017	ABD	NYP	A(Short)	4	2	1.31	10	9	0	0	0	0	41.1	25	13	6	2	0	19	0	41	.168	1.06	1.31
2017	ORI	GCL	ROK	0	0	0.00	1	1	0	0	0	0	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	.400	2.00	*.**
2017 [-]	2 teams	-	Minors	4	2	1.28	11	10	0	0	0	0	42.1	27	13	6	2	0	19	0	43	.175	1.09	1.33
2018	DEL	SAL	A(Full)	5	0	1.42	7	7	0	0	0	0	38.0	23	7	6	0	1	13	0	47	.180	0.95	1.00
2018	FRE	CAR	A(Adv)	8	5	3.88	17	17	2	0	0	0	92.2	82	42	40	9	2	40	0	59	.238	1.32	0.58
2018 [-]	2 teams	-	Minors	13	5	3.17	24	24	2	0	0	0	130.2	105	49	46	9	3	53	0	106	.222	1.21	0.66
2019	FRE	CAR	A(Adv)	1	4	3.83	11	11	0	0	0	0	54.0	40	24	23	2	0	24	0	77	.203	1.19	0.93
2019	BOW	EAS	AA	2	1	0.33	5	3	1	1	1	1	27.0	10	1	1	0	0	8	0	32	.116	0.67	0.83
2019 [-]	2 teams	-	Minors	3	5	2.67	16	14	1	1	1	1	81.0	50	25	24	2	0	32	0	109	.177	1.01	0.90

 

3.17 doesn't seem like a bad ERA.  i guess at 23 he should be doing better in A ball,  but year before he was 1.28.   And he's doing better in AA.  Looks like he'll be promoted to Norfolk soon.

[Hersh]

1 hour ago, volsmet said:

 

He was a 23 year old getting his ass kicked in high a last year. 

 

Do 3 minutes of research. First, the guy was 22 last season in A ball and in his first full pro season. In three of his seventeen starts last season he gave up 19 of his 40 ERs. That means in those other 14 starts he was dealing a 2.34 ERA. He certainly struggled with some command when he moved up last season and didn't have the same K/BB ratio, but for guys in their first full season, it was good stuff. If you want to complain about a guy that's 23 and dominating AA ball, you may proceed. 

[Spaceman Spiff]

7 hours ago, Hersh said:

 

Do 3 minutes of research. First, the guy was 22 last season in A ball and in his first full pro season. In three of his seventeen starts last season he gave up 19 of his 40 ERs. That means in those other 14 starts he was dealing a 2.34 ERA. He certainly struggled with some command when he moved up last season and didn't have the same K/BB ratio, but for guys in their first full season, it was good stuff. If you want to complain about a guy that's 23 and dominating AA ball, you may proceed. 

 

Hersh, I admire the optimism.  I really do.  

 

But the selective "If he didn't perform like **** for three starts, he's really Sandy Koufax!" routine just doesn't work.

[Hersh]

17 minutes ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

 

Hersh, I admire the optimism.  I really do.  

 

But the selective "If he didn't perform like **** for three starts, he's really Sandy Koufax!" routine just doesn't work.

 

Where did I say that?? Good gracious. All I have said about this guy is that he’s a legit prospect. To say he was getting his ass kicked in single A was flat out wrong. You keep claiming I’m saying things that I don’t actually say. 

It’s pretty damn annoying 

[Spaceman Spiff]

1 minute ago, Hersh said:

 

Where did I say that?? Good gracious. All I have said about this guy is that he’s a legit prospect. To say he was getting his ass kicked in single A was flat out wrong. You keep claiming I’m saying things that I don’t actually say. 

It’s pretty damn annoying 

 

Did you not say "In three of his seventeen starts last season he gave up 19 of his 40 ERs. That means in those other 14 starts he was dealing a 2.34 ERA."?  That wasn't you that posted that?

 

So why are you astounded with my response of "If he didn't perform like **** for three starts, he's really Sandy Koufax!" routine just doesn't work."?   Yes, Sandy Koufax is an exaggeration, I am assuming you understand I didn't mean it literally.  And Koufax is lefthanded whereas Baumann is a righty.  

 

My gripe with the selective stat hunting is that it doesn't tell the whole story.  Cherrypicking around bad performances and propping someone up based on the good ones is a disingenuous argument.   

 

I would agree that he's a prospect.  He will see time in Baltimore and get a shot, there's no doubt about that.  I admit that I don't know a whole lot about him.  But I am assuming that he's not on anyones top 100 prospect lists for a reason.  Granted there are plenty of players that have gone on to have successful careers that weren't ranked as prospects but I'd like to know what the scouts think about what his ceiling could be.  He did go to college so his age shouldn't be held against him.  

[volsmet]

10 hours ago, DCSaints_fan said:

 

Getting his ass kicked?  http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=657508#/career/R/pitching/2019/ALL

 

YEAR	TEAM	LG	LEVEL	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	SVO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	HB	BB	IBB	SO	AVG	WHIP	GO/AO
Minors Career [+]	5 teams		Minors	20	12	2.69	51	48	3	1	1	1	254.0	182	87	76	13	3	104	0	258	.200	1.13	0.81
2017	ABD	NYP	A(Short)	4	2	1.31	10	9	0	0	0	0	41.1	25	13	6	2	0	19	0	41	.168	1.06	1.31
2017	ORI	GCL	ROK	0	0	0.00	1	1	0	0	0	0	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	.400	2.00	*.**
2017 [-]	2 teams	-	Minors	4	2	1.28	11	10	0	0	0	0	42.1	27	13	6	2	0	19	0	43	.175	1.09	1.33
2018	DEL	SAL	A(Full)	5	0	1.42	7	7	0	0	0	0	38.0	23	7	6	0	1	13	0	47	.180	0.95	1.00
2018	FRE	CAR	A(Adv)	8	5	3.88	17	17	2	0	0	0	92.2	82	42	40	9	2	40	0	59	.238	1.32	0.58
2018 [-]	2 teams	-	Minors	13	5	3.17	24	24	2	0	0	0	130.2	105	49	46	9	3	53	0	106	.222	1.21	0.66
2019	FRE	CAR	A(Adv)	1	4	3.83	11	11	0	0	0	0	54.0	40	24	23	2	0	24	0	77	.203	1.19	0.93
2019	BOW	EAS	AA	2	1	0.33	5	3	1	1	1	1	27.0	10	1	1	0	0	8	0	32	.116	0.67	0.83
2019 [-]	2 teams	-	Minors	3	5	2.67	16	14	1	1	1	1	81.0	50	25	24	2	0	32	0	109	.177	1.01	0.90

 

3.17 doesn't seem like a bad ERA.  i guess at 23 he should be doing better in A ball,  but year before he was 1.28.   And he's doing better in AA.  Looks like he'll be promoted to Norfolk soon.

 

3.17 wasn’t his era in high a.

 

Again, factually, Baumann was atrocious in high A as a 23 year old. Baumann had an fip & xfip each over 4.70 with a 15% k rate, over 10% bb rate & only a 34% ground ball rate — that’s grotesque. 

9 hours ago, Hersh said:

 

Do 3 minutes of research. First, the guy was 22 last season in A ball and in his first full pro season. In three of his seventeen starts last season he gave up 19 of his 40 ERs. That means in those other 14 starts he was dealing a 2.34 ERA. He certainly struggled with some command when he moved up last season and didn't have the same K/BB ratio, but for guys in their first full season, it was good stuff. If you want to complain about a guy that's 23 and dominating AA ball, you may proceed. 

 

Baumann couldn’t generate swings and misses in high A, you’re lost. Baumann has made tremendous improvements. He wasn’t unfairly ranked, he was atrocious last year in Frederick. No one is complaining about anything but you. 

[volsmet]

*Baumann has added to his fb, he’s maintaining his velocity deeper into games, his slider flashes as good as just about any in the minors. Baumann still has no change & his curve is not there. Michael has turned himself into a legitimate piece, he’s now a back end rp profile with the potential to become an mlb starter if he can develop the change... which I’d have to assume he can. This FO will want him to work on the curve.

 

Hall, Grayson, Harvey, Akin, Lowther, Baumann, Rom & Wells give us some guys to feel excited about ....even without Kremer, Ortiz or Tate proving anything this year, we have plenty to be excited about.

Edited July 17, 2019 by volsmet

[volsmet]

Credit the new regime. A 35+ grade is pathetic, fangraphs saw the potential for growth even with that grade, that’s what scouting is. It’s not unfair or incorrect, it’s spot on, in fact.

 

Michael Baumann, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Level: Hi-A   Age: 23   Org Rank: 28   FV: 35+
Line: 5 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 0 R, 10 K

 

Notes
Orioles pitching prospects should be considered potential movers this year as the new front office applies the player dev philosophy that seems to be working in Houston. Baumann already has some components Houston might have otherwise tried to install; he has a vertical release point that looks like it creates backspin, he throws hard, and he works up in the zone. Maybe that just means he has less to fix and is likely to improve more quickly than others in the system. He was up to 96 last night.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/daily-prospect-notes-4-11-19/

 

[Hersh]

1 hour ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

 

Did you not say "In three of his seventeen starts last season he gave up 19 of his 40 ERs. That means in those other 14 starts he was dealing a 2.34 ERA."?  That wasn't you that posted that?

 

So why are you astounded with my response of "If he didn't perform like **** for three starts, he's really Sandy Koufax!" routine just doesn't work."?   Yes, Sandy Koufax is an exaggeration, I am assuming you understand I didn't mean it literally.  And Koufax is lefthanded whereas Baumann is a righty.  

 

My gripe with the selective stat hunting is that it doesn't tell the whole story.  Cherrypicking around bad performances and propping someone up based on the good ones is a disingenuous argument.   

 

I would agree that he's a prospect.  He will see time in Baltimore and get a shot, there's no doubt about that.  I admit that I don't know a whole lot about him.  But I am assuming that he's not on anyones top 100 prospect lists for a reason.  Granted there are plenty of players that have gone on to have successful careers that weren't ranked as prospects but I'd like to know what the scouts think about what his ceiling could be.  He did go to college so his age shouldn't be held against him.  

 

 

Saying he was dealing with a 2.34 ERA in 80 percent of his starts is not me saying he's Sandy Koufax. You took it to that extreme. The only point I made was that he wasn't getting his ass kicked. 

 

I don't put a lot into rankings. People thought the O's reached with G-Rod in the first round last year and now he's considered a top 65 prospect in all of baseball. The guy the O's got back in the Schoop trade, Ortiz, I think he was a top-100 prospect once and he sucks. 

 

[Hersh]

21 minutes ago, volsmet said:

 

3.17 wasn’t his era in high a.

 

Again, factually, Baumann was atrocious in high A as a 23 year old. Baumann had an fip & xfip each over 4.70 with a 15% k rate, over 10% bb rate & only a 34% ground ball rate — that’s grotesque. 

 

Baumann couldn’t generate swings and misses in high A, you’re lost. Baumann has made tremendous improvements. He wasn’t unfairly ranked, he was atrocious last year in Frederick. No one is complaining about anything but you. 

 

You're right, he wasn't getting his ass-kicked in A ball and he wasn't 23, so I was wrong about that. He did struggle as many pitchers do when they go up a level but he seems to have really become a different pitcher this year. 

 

Fixed this for you. 

[volsmet]

36 minutes ago, Hersh said:

 

Fixed this for you. 

 

You are oddly emotional about Michael Baumann. You suggesting that rankings are flawed because Baumann wasn’t rated highly after an atrocious 2018 is your own flawed logic, not a flaw in prospect rankings. 

 

1 year & 2 months younger than Lucas Giolito, Baumann was walking as many guys as he was striking out in A ball ... the only good news in that was, he wasn’t walking all that many. Baumann is nearly 24 — only Hersh knew he was going to blossom after being garbage at Frederick in 2018.

 

The guy had an fip over 4.70 while striking out 5 per 9 in high A... how could he not have been seen as a top 100 prospect in the game. You give the scouting community a lot to think about with your revisionist grading system. 

 

Elias needs the Hersh on his evaluation squad.

 

42 minutes ago, Hersh said:

 

 

Saying he was dealing with a 2.34 ERA in 80 percent of his starts is not me saying he's Sandy Koufax. You took it to that extreme. The only point I made was that he wasn't getting his ass kicked. 

 

I don't put a lot into rankings. People thought the O's reached with G-Rod in the first round last year and now he's considered a top 65 prospect in all of baseball. The guy the O's got back in the Schoop trade, Ortiz, I think he was a top-100 prospect once and he sucks. 

 

 

Adorable. 

Edited July 17, 2019 by volsmet

[Hersh]

Will you point to where I said Baumann should be a highly ranked prospect? Show me where I said he was something more than a legit prospect.

 

If you want to double down on saying he was atrocious in 2018, that's up to you. I'll take a guy dominating in low A then struggling some (which I said originally) but still turning out a lot of solid games and finishing with a 3.83 ERA in high A for his first full pro season.

 

Your passive aggressive nature is cute. If you simply want to troll, get lost. I don't have any use for that here. 

 

 

[volsmet]

20 minutes ago, Hersh said:

 

 

I don't put a lot into rankings. People thought the O's reached with G-Rod in the first round last year

 

You win the cutest fan award, it’s truly spectacular to watch you go. These people had no idea who Grayson was. 🤨

 

 

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/2018-mlb-mock-draft-auburn-pitcher-still-projected-to-go-no-1-to-tigers-in-updated-first-round/

 

With three extra picks and a large bonus pool, the Rays are in position to get creative here. The latest chatter has them signing a player below-slot here and really going big for a top talent who falls with one of those extra picks. Rodriguez, who is a legitimate first-round talent and expected to come off the board in the top 20 picks somewhere, is a prime candidate for such a maneuver.

 

https://www.draftsite.com/mlb/mock-draft/2018/

Pick 15, did these guys even know who Grayson was? The scouting community missed him completely. 15? Crazy mock drafts.

 

21. Milwaukee Brewers | Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Central Heights HS (Texas)
Rodriguez may be in play even 10 or so spots higher than this pick, and it makes sense from value perspective as well a fit. He's been into the upper-90s this spring at times and has shown very good feel for his off-speed stuff, but there is the rawness to the profile

https://www.perfectgame.org/articles/View.aspx?article=15237

 

19. St. Louis Cardinals: Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Central Heights HS (TX) 

Steve Mitchell / USA Today Sports Images

No team has had more success in recent seasons finding pitching in the draft than the Cardinals. Rodriguez could go as high as the top 10, but the Cardinals can afford to be patient with any pitching prospect they take with the recent arrivals of Luke Weaver, Jack Flaherty and Alex Reyes in the majors.

https://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/articles/first_round_2018_mlb_mock_draft/s1__26520977#slide_19

[Rocky21]

It sucks these days to be an Orioles fan. 

 

One of our prospects throws a no hitter in AA in his third start and we fight about it. 

[DCSaints_fan]

Maybe the Nats would be willing to trade for Givens? 🙂