stevemcqueen1

2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

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4 hours ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

Isn't he another Jon Allen?  Spending a 1st on a DT 3 years in a row gets you the New York Jets for the past few years (4 DT's in 5 years), or the Detroit Lions from 2007-ish (3 WR's in a row).  There's putting too many assets into one area at the sacrifice of balance in others.

 

Edit:  If he's not another 3 to 5 tech, and instead a huge Edge player, than I stand corrected. 



 

It's a rotation position with three starters in our base.  You can't have too many good stud interior DLs.  If Quinnen Williams is there at our pick and he's the BPA, I hope we pick him.

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28 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

It's a rotation position with three starters in our base.  You can't have too many good stud interior DLs.  If Quinnen Williams is there at our pick and he's the BPA, I hope we pick him.

 

We don't rotate as much as we used to, our coaches like the conditioning of our previous 2 first rounders.  Payne is playing around 70% and Allen is playing around 80%.  There's also Ioannidis.  I'm all for developing a DT with a Day 3 pick as Ioannidis will be in the last year of his rookie deal.  But Allen and Payne have motors.

 

I think a 1st rounder spent on a position that'll play the majority of the snaps, if not all of them, would have a greater overall impact on the team than someone whose getting 50%.  It's not like him replacing an "ok" player's portion of snaps is as much of an upgrade when he's getting snaps away from Allen and Payne to up his snap total.

 

A LG would play 100% of the offensive snaps.  A Corner might play 90+% of D snaps, same with a talented Mike Linebacker.  I think an Edge guy improving that rotation would be worth more overall than interior D-Line rotation.

 

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8 hours ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

We don't rotate as much as we used to, our coaches like the conditioning of our previous 2 first rounders.  Payne is playing around 70% and Allen is playing around 80%.  There's also Ioannidis.  I'm all for developing a DT with a Day 3 pick as Ioannidis will be in the last year of his rookie deal.  But Allen and Payne have motors.

 

I think a 1st rounder spent on a position that'll play the majority of the snaps, if not all of them, would have a greater overall impact on the team than someone whose getting 50%.  It's not like him replacing an "ok" player's portion of snaps is as much of an upgrade when he's getting snaps away from Allen and Payne to up his snap total.

 

A LG would play 100% of the offensive snaps.  A Corner might play 90+% of D snaps, same with a talented Mike Linebacker.  I think an Edge guy improving that rotation would be worth more overall than interior D-Line rotation.

  

 

Ioannidis wouldn't even factor into my thinking with the draft pick.  The only position I would abandon BPA for is QB.  Putting a stud on your defensive line is going to upgrade your roster more than putting a lesser player at another position--except at QB.  And again, if you want dominant DL play, you have to rotate the interior players.  Fatigue becomes an issue otherwise.  Multiplicity becomes an issue.  Sure we could rotate lesser players in, but if a stud is there at our pick, why settle for that?

 

And at the end of the day, we're talking about drafting another starter if we're talking about drafting another stud interior DL.  No matter what kind of base front you run, you need to play three interior linemen.

 

This is an important topic because The majority of the best players in this class are interior DLs.  It's absurdly top heavy this year.

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One more thing: drafting a lot of first rounders at the same position group isn't something that only bad drafting teams do.  New England picked three interior DLs in four years with first round picks and won two championships with the group as the heart of their team.

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I've enjoyed the discussions about defensive linemen and linebackers, but the elephant in the room in this thread is that we need a quarterback.

 

- none of the first round options this year are particularly clean or impressive.

 

- giving Jay a fourth shot at the position is not very appealing.

 

I'm hoping some underappreciated guys emerge later on in the season like Trubisky and Mahomes did.  I'm going to start watching the first round guys more intensively, and hope the Giants don't back into a stud.

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9 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

I've enjoyed the discussions about defensive linemen and linebackers, but the elephant in the room in this thread is that we need a quarterback.

 

- none of the first round options this year are particularly clean or impressive.

 

- giving Jay a fourth shot at the position is not very appealing.

 

I'm hoping some underappreciated guys emerge later on in the season like Trubisky and Mahomes did.  I'm going to start watching the first round guys more intensively, and hope the Giants don't back into a stud.

 

Respectfully disagree - the elephant in the room is OL. At multiple positions.

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2 minutes ago, bird_1972 said:

 

Respectfully disagree - the elephant in the room is OL. At multiple positions.

 

You can go with lesser players at positions like LG and C.  We have good options at the other spots.

 

You can find good starters at interior line positions outside of the first round.  Every team in the league starts players at guard or center who aren't first rounders.

 

But you can't go with a lesser player at QB.  Not if you want to break that 8-8 ceiling.  You have got to have a QB.  And you are extremely unlikely to find good starting QBs outside of the first round.  There are only a couple in the NFL.  Actually the exact number is seven and Drew Brees was picked with the 32nd pick.  And I think it's unclear whether Carr, Prescott, and Dalton are actually good quarterbacks.

 

There are quite a bit more than seven good starting guards and centers in the NFL who were taken outside of the first.

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3 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

You can go with lesser players at positions like LG and C.  We have good options at the other spots.

 

You can find good starters at interior line positions outside of the first round.  Every team in the league starts players at guard or center who aren't first rounders.

 

But you can't go with a lesser player at QB.  Not if you want to break that 8-8 ceiling.  You have got to have a QB.  And you are extremely unlikely to find good starting QBs outside of the first round.  There are only a couple in the NFL.  Actually the exact number is seven and Drew Brees was picked with the 32nd pick.  And I think it's unclear whether Carr, Prescott, and Dalton are actually good quarterbacks.

 

There are quite a bit more than seven good starting guards and centers in the NFL who were taken outside of the first.

 

Are there any QBs worth drafting this year that could approximate a franchise QB (without requiring a total reach)? 

 

My understanding is that the talent pool is quite thin this year.

 

As for the OL, I think we need top OT if one is available. Not sold on Moses long term and Williams needs an heir apparent. I don't think Geron Christian will suffice for anything other than a swing backup. Too raw.

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22 minutes ago, bird_1972 said:

 

Are there any QBs worth drafting this year that could approximate a franchise QB (without requiring a total reach)? 

  

My understanding is that the talent pool is quite thin this year. 

  

As for the OL, I think we need top OT if one is available. Not sold on Moses long term and Williams needs an heir apparent. I don't think Geron Christian will suffice for anything other than a swing backup. Too raw. 

 

That's the million dollar question.  This QB crop did seem weak to me when I first looked at it, but sometimes guys emerge over the course of the season.  That's what happened with Trubisky and Mahomes.  I'm hoping the same will happen this year, because we didn't come into this season with really clean and accomplished stud prospects like we did in previous years with Darnold and Mayfield and Watson, etc.

 

I'm going to be looking at the QBs from Duke and NC State to start.  Finley has a long history as a starter and I'll be looking at his cut ups to see if he's made the leap to good prospect this year.  That's kind of how it played out for Jared Goff.  I'm not going to write off Lock or Herbert yet either.

 

I wouldn't be opposed to ending up with a top OT prospect, because they're worth their weight in gold too.  But I would go into the offseason prioritizing QB.  The rough calculus of the QB position is that a pretty good QB prospect is still way more valuable to a team than a great prospect at another position.  It's the one position you abandon BPA for when you think you've got a guy.  A good example of this is how the Browns and Jets took Mayfield and Darnold in this past draft over higher graded guys like Barkley and Chubb.  Saquon was graded at a 7.45 on NFL.com and Chubb was graded at 7.32.  Those are extremely good grades.  They basically equal a projection of "this guy is a surefire perennial All Pro."  Meanwhile Mayfield and Darnold were graded lower.  Darnold ended up getting a 7 by the end, but he was in the mid 6s for most of the process and I believe Lance Zierlein bumped up his grade based on scuttlebutt when it became clear he was a top three lock.  And Baker was only graded at a 6.04.

 

It was the right call for both the Jets and Browns to take those QBs over the higher graded players at other positions.  They look like they're headed in the right direction and the Giants and Broncos look like they're adrift.

 

QBs are the foundation for your team.  You've got to lay that foundation in order to build your house on top of it.

Edited by stevemcqueen1
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WOW! This kid DJ Knox is really something. He has those choppy little strides and can cut on a dime. A CT type player that is pretty incredible.

On 10/19/2018 at 9:15 AM, bird_1972 said:

 

Are there any QBs worth drafting this year that could approximate a franchise QB (without requiring a total reach)? 

 

My understanding is that the talent pool is quite thin this year.

 

As for the OL, I think we need top OT if one is available. Not sold on Moses long term and Williams needs an heir apparent. I don't think Geron Christian will suffice for anything other than a swing backup. Too raw.

 

Still a whole lot of football left to play this season as far as QB rankings go. But I agree that the talent pool is a joke compared to last year. Although we werent in a position to take one of the top guys last year anyways. 

 

This upcoming draft is really DEEP at OL. I have been watching film over the past couple of weeks and it is really incredible how many good OL will be coming out this year. 

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On 10/19/2018 at 9:15 AM, bird_1972 said:

 

Are there any QBs worth drafting this year that could approximate a franchise QB (without requiring a total reach)? 

 

My understanding is that the talent pool is quite thin this year.

 

As for the OL, I think we need top OT if one is available. Not sold on Moses long term and Williams needs an heir apparent. I don't think Geron Christian will suffice for anything other than a swing backup. Too raw.

I'd love to see if the Giants would take a 4th round pick for Kyle Lauletta.

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21 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

WOW! This kid DJ Knox is really something. He has those choppy little strides and can cut on a dime. A CT type player that is pretty incredible.

 

Still a whole lot of football left to play this season as far as QB rankings go. But I agree that the talent pool is a joke compared to last year. Although we werent in a position to take one of the top guys last year anyways. 

 

This upcoming draft is really DEEP at OL. I have been watching film over the past couple of weeks and it is really incredible how many good OL will be coming out this year. 

 

Fantastic. We will need at least two picks for the OL this offseason.

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On 10/19/2018 at 8:49 AM, stevemcqueen1 said:

I've enjoyed the discussions about defensive linemen and linebackers, but the elephant in the room in this thread is that we need a quarterback.

 

- none of the first round options this year are particularly clean or impressive.

 

- giving Jay a fourth shot at the position is not very appealing.

 

I'm hoping some underappreciated guys emerge later on in the season like Trubisky and Mahomes did.  I'm going to start watching the first round guys more intensively, and hope the Giants don't back into a stud.

The FO has a plan: ride Alex for 2 more years, then tank like an an anchor so they can get Trevor Lawrence!

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43 minutes ago, Long n Left said:

The FO has a plan: ride Alex for 2 more years, then tank like an an anchor so they can get Trevor Lawrence!

Don't wanna wait that long.

 

Get me Haskins and I'll be a happy man. 

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10 hours ago, BRAVEONAWARPATH said:

Don't wanna wait that long.

 

Get me Haskins and I'll be a happy man. 

Haskins is a good QB, Lawrence is next level HOF material. I’ll wait the extra year thanks.

 

Watching that game Saturday night, Lawrence made Finley look like a dog, and Finley is a top 3 QB coming out this year in many pundits eyes. Lawrence, as a true freshman, is already making throws that only a few NFL QBs can make. Truly remarkable talent...a guy I would gladly pay good money to watch play. May even get season tix again, and travel up from the Carolinas if the Skins were lucky enough to snag Lawrence.

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Trevor Lawrence has a couple years to go though.  That's an eternity in the NFL.  The Cowboys went from having a dominant offensive line to an OL that looks like its aging and wearing down in the span of two years.

 

And it's also a long road for Trevor Lawrence himself.  Josh Rosen looked like the next Andrew Luck during his freshman season.  He was incredibly precocious and had advanced passing skills already.  But he went through the meat grinder for two more years and didn't show the level of growth that people expected and he came into the league as a lesser prospect who ended up being the fourth QB taken in his class.

 

A similar thing has happened with Dexter Lawrence IMO.  When I watched him as a Freshman, I said, "This kid is the second coming of Albert Haynesworth.  He's going to be a top five pick when he comes out."  But he just didn't grow as a player like I hoped he would.  The sheer physical talent is still there, but he still doesn't have a pass rush repertoire or the pass rush instincts you want to see.  He's still having trouble finding the football.  Now I think he has to go back to school and show some real progress as a player if he wants to solidify himself as a first round lock.  But financially, I don't think he can justify taking that risk.

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On the edge rush front:

 

- I'm not the biggest fan of Josh Allen, but his steady production is impossible to ignore.  His activity level is exactly what you want to see in a versatile edge defender, and he's leading a defense that is really good.  I thought he was a borderline first rounder, early second rounder type talent.  But I think he's making his case to go in the first.  Let's say he finishes the year with 80 something tackles and 13 or 14 sacks, that'll put him in the teens or twenties.  But he's also going to have to run well at the combine or his Proday.  He'll need to at least run in the 4.7s.

 

- Sweat continues producing like Allen too.  I don't think he's got Allen's versatility, but he is a more traditional edge defender.  He's making his case for the first round as well.  I see Randy Gregory in his skill set, but he's been a lot more productive than Gregory was.  And as far as I know, he doesn't have the character flags Gregory did.  I like but don't love him as a prospect.  I prefer Josh Allen as a prospect because he's got more sand in his pants and he's more versatile.

 

- Oshane Ximines I love.  He's flying under the radar because his team is so bad but he's a really nice player.  He's really doing it all for that defense.  You'll see him playing the run pretty well in a variety of looks.  And they move him around on passing downs to try and confuse all of the double teams.  As a pass rusher, I think he shows very good athletic traits and a pretty good variety in his approach.  He's got that sense for when he's getting an opportunity to beat the protection and then he can gear up to make the play.  He's got some power counters.  Definitely has some good hands and the speed to threaten the edge.  And he plays with his head up and watches the QB rather than the double team.  If this kid were playing with another edge player and a couple of interior guys who were any good, you could really turn him loose.  As is, he's having to do too much for that defense.  But the plus side for draftniks is that you get to see him making plays against adversity.  I see a first round talent in him, and I think there is a chance that he falls out of the first and offers really good value later on in the class.

 

- Sutton Smith has been the hardest projection for me.  You can't downplay his edge speed and productivity.  But I can't figure out how you get him on the field in the NFL.  He just doesn't have an NFL body.  But then neither did Elvis Dumervil.  Sometimes guys who have that kind of passion for the game just find a way to beat the odds and be successful at the next level.  Can he get picked as high as Dumervil did?  I can't rule that out.  He'd have to burn up the 40 yard dash at the combine in order to do so, but he's capable of doing that.  He's the kind of prospect that's either going to make a GM look like a friggin genius or an idiot.  He's going to have to go to the right defensive coordinator too.  Someone who believes in him and is willing to put him in situations and positions that will strain the other guys in the front but give him a chance to do his thing on the edge.

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Here's my take on Quinnen Williams, #92 DT for Alabama, the guy who will probably be at or near the top of our board.  IMO, he is Alabama's best defensive player this year.

 

Bottom line takeaways:

 

- Classic penetrating three technique.  Can play the one technique on passing downs and also has the height and movement skills to play 5 technique.

 

- Reminds me very much of Gerald McCoy.

 

Physical attributes:

- Extremely fast off the line.  First few steps are everything you could want.

- Closing speed looks good.

- Bendy.  Plays with low pads.

- Build is lean and ideal for the position.  Columnar body.  Very little sloppiness in the belly and trunk.  Thick base.  Lots of natural power.  Very similar build to Gerald McCoy, but he's a little bigger and taller.  Not as wide bodied as Fletcher Cox, but a similar-looking athlete.  Carries his weight very well.

- Looks like he has vine arms.  I'm interested to see what he measures because I think they might be 34".  Combination of this length plus first step speed will put him in an elite percentile for the position.

- Stunting ability looks elite.  First lateral step is very fast and fluid.

- Good balance through contact.  Doesn't end up on the ground from legal blocks.

 

Skill set and playing style:

- Elite level three down player for Alabama

 

Run:

- Utilized primarily as a stunter and gap shooter from the three technique on early downs, but will line up inside on pass downs.

- Attacks his run fit with power and speed, but drops his head into contact more than you want.  Will get locked in on the fight with his man instead of reading the field.

- You can get him with the draw.  Vulnerable to traps because of how far upfield he gets.  Puts some strain on his second level to not get sealed off.

- Less effective as the one-technique, but certainly does make plays against shotgun runs from that spot.  Doesn't have an ideal A gap anchor a la DaRon Payne. 

- However, anchors the B gap well, and can stand up to doubles and chips.  Length and flexibility are real assets.

- Very capable of blowing up a center from the one tech though.  Can disrupt the mesh point on inside runs due to his quickness.  You're going to want to play a lot of spill defense with this kid lined up inside.  You basically always want him playing downhill.

- Good but not great body control.  Capable of making tackles off his frame, but doesn't blow you away with this part of his game.  Usually too far up field to make plays in pursuit.

 

Coverage:

- Never spot drops into coverages

 

Pass rushing:

- Truly shines as a rusher on passing downs.  Probably the second best interior pass rusher in the class after Ed Oliver, and one of the best ones I've seen at the position in the past several years.

- Mostly wins with his speed and power combination, but has a solid looking repertoire of inside rushes.  Frequently wins with strong swim and rip moves.

- Capable of changing plans when the initial rush gets stymied.  Great motor.

- Bull rush is absolutely devastating.  Violent hands and long arms on the extension.

- Footspeed to run outside stunts and twists and bring pressure from the edge.

-  Doesn't have the same nose for finishing off plays that Jonathan Allen has.  Doesn't see the field as well as Allen did and it's reflected in his level of production.

 

Summary:

I love this kid's natural talent, but what separates him from a top level prospect like Ed Oliver is the football IQ and field vision.  I think he has the traits to be a top ten pick if he went back for his Senior season and showed development in his awareness and ability to finish off plays in the backfield and change gears to make plays in pursuit.  He's likely to come out this season though, and I think he'll ultimately get picked in the teens.  If we finish the season strong and win the division, he will likely be outside of our draft range.  If he were there when we pick, he would very likely be BPA.

 

As far as his fit for our defense, I think he'd probably start at the 3 or 5 tech in base sets.  A three man base with him, Allen, and Payne would probably be the most talented defensive interior in the NFL.  If you rotate them properly, you could keep two elite players in the interior at all times and maintain a dominant inside rush through all four quarters.  I believe he'd bring some new stuff to the table for our defense because of his ability as a stunter.  And I think we have the tacklers at the second and third levels to play dominant 1-5 spill with a guy like Williams at either interior spot.  On passing downs he could play inside.  He's pretty much exactly what you want from an interior rusher.

 

He would fit in well to our new identity as a team.

Edited by stevemcqueen1
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You really think it would be wise taking another DT that high though @stevemcqueen1? I don't see how he even sees the field with Jon and Daron being as good as they've been. Ioannidis is no slouch either. Not going to lie though, having a fresh Ioannidis and Williams come in when the OL is tired will be absolutely dominant but we're already so rich at that position right now. 

Edited by Burgundy Yoda
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2 hours ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

You really think it would be wise taking another DT that high though @stevemcqueen1? I don't see how he even sees the field with Jon and Daron being as good as they've been. Ioannidis is no slouch either. Not going to lie though, having a fresh Ioannidis and Williams come in when the OL is tired will be absolutely dominant but we're already so rich at that position right now. 

 

Would rather take an EDGE if we go DL in the first round.

 

Of course, my preference would be to take OT or ILB if an elite one is there when we pick.

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2 hours ago, bird_1972 said:

 

Would rather take an EDGE if we go DL in the first round.

 

Of course, my preference would be to take OT or ILB if an elite one is there when we pick.

Same, I do wonder if we should just take bpa regardless of position sometimes though. Any other position besides DT should be bpa in my opinion because we can improve anywhere honestly. If we see a stud and think they'll be a pro bowler, you almost have to pull the trigger. 

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5 hours ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

You really think it would be wise taking another DT that high though @stevemcqueen1? I don't see how he even sees the field with Jon and Daron being as good as they've been. Ioannidis is no slouch either. Not going to lie though, having a fresh Ioannidis and Williams come in when the OL is tired will be absolutely dominant but we're already so rich at that position right now. 

 

I think going BPA is almost always the best choice.  If Quinnen Williams declares, he'll probably be one of the best defensive players in the class.  He'd have no trouble finding the field for us.  The kid can play the 1-5 techniques and we need three interior DL in our base defenses anyway.  And he's a three down guy who is a force on passing downs.

 

I don't think we're as flush in DL talent as most.  An injury to Allen or Payne would be a real hit.  I think we've got two big time talents and then a pretty good rotation guy and then a pair of low cost prospects with some upside.  It's a four man rotation though.

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