Why China's Economy will be so hard to fix..

[FanboyOf91]

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2630824

 

 

 

Abstract:     

China’s reform era is ending. Core factors that characterized it – political stability, ideological openness, and rapid economic growth – are unraveling.

In part, this is the result of Beijing’s steadfast refusal to contemplate fundamental political reform. Since the early 1990s, this has fueled the rise of entrenched interests within the Communist Party itself. It has also contributed to the systematic underdevelopment of institutions of governance among state and society at large.

Now, to address looming problems confronting the nation, Chinese leaders are progressively cannibalizing institutional norms and practices that have formed the bedrock of the regime's stability in the post-Mao era.

 

Xi Jinping is the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao. And he's probably going to be around for a very long time.

[JMS]

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2630824

 

Xi Jinping is the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao. And he's probably going to be around for a very long time.

 

 

I don't know if that's true.   I think he's struggling to control hard liners in his government and party.   I don't think he was in front or calling the shots when one of their fighters ran into our spy plane under George W..    I don't think he is directing their ambitious expansion in the south china sea either.    I've heard western foreign policy experts refer to China's Navy and Army as autonomous from Xi.

 

That's one of the big problems with China,   trying to figure out who's in charge where.

[FanboyOf91]

I Can you name one major economy that you would point to and say "oh yea, strong as an ox?" 

 

I don't know if that's true.   I think he's struggling to control hard liners in his government and party.   I don't think he was in front or calling the shots when one of their fighters ran into our spy plane under George W..    I don't think he is directing their ambitious expansion in the south china sea either.    I've heard western foreign policy experts refer to China's Navy and Army as autonomous from Xi.

 

That's one of the big problems with China,   trying to figure out who's in charge where.

 

Judging by all of the politicians and generals he's had thrown in jail and had convicted, his personal popularity with the Chinese people, and his consolidation of power upon himself, I'd say he's the man.

[TheGreatBuzz]

GDP map picture

Not sure what you are trying to say with that map.  If it's that we have states that are as strong as some countries, I get that but more goes into an economy than GDP.  Sure California is on par with the UK but does that make them a "strong as an ox" economy?  Weren't they boarding on bankruptcy a while back?  If your point was that the US as a whole is stronger than all those countries combined, I don't know how much faith I have in our economy long term.  I view it as the housing crisis.  Every one just acts like its a guarantee that it will always do well while ignoring the signs.  Hell, just look at our debt.  Now factor in the things we will need to invest in the near future (infrastructure, education, etc).  God forbid a decent size war breaks out.  So tell me why I shouldn't worry that a global depression isn't at least realistically possible in the near future (say next 2-10 years). 

[JMS]

 

Judging by all of the politicians and generals he's had thrown in jail and had convicted, his personal popularity with the Chinese people, and his consolidation of power upon himself, I'd say he's the man.

 

 

Yeah if you think his anti corruption campaign is a sign of strength.   I guess it's just coincidence then that his anti corruption campaign is targeting former premier's Jiang Zemin supporters.

 

​I mean the scandal going on now which US news sources aren't covering is China's continued and accelerated muder of prisoneer's of conscious in order to harvest and profit from selling their organs.    This is something that came to light in the first decade of 2000;   and was something Xi agreed to end by 2015..    Last month we find the practice of organ harvesting is accelerating.   1.5 million Chinese citizens have been murdered for their organs by their government... 

 

So to recap... Jiang Zemin was premier when it was decided the Communist Party would persecute Foulun Gong.   Xi publicly agreed to end the practice by last year.    This year we have a peopody winning documentary detailing the practice is continuing and accelerating...   Then we have a House of Representatives refferandem acknowledging China's organ harvesting campaign...  and then we have a 600 page report by a human rights group which details the policy in great detail came out what two weeks ago...   and throughout this Xi is cracking down on Zemin's supporters but is unable to get them to change their policies.

 

So far he's targeted.   Zemin's right hand man  Zhou YongKang as the primary guy responsible for the organ harvesting...   He's also arrested more than 100 government officials with the rank of vice premier or higher most with ties of Jiang Zemin.   Most recently reports have that Jiang Zemin's son  Jiang Mianheng been placed under house arrest.   Now it looks like Jiang's highest remaining ally Propaganda Minister Liu Yunshan, may be targeted next.

 

Xi's anti corruption investigators have also announced they are looking into the 610 office created by Zemin to persecute Folun Gong.

 

So it appears that Xi's been unwilling or unable to tackle Zemin's supporters on previous occasions spanning years even when he's promised too,  and now that his deadline has come and gone he is trying to address them.    To me that means he's still consolidating power and their are still folks who don't take him seriously outside the military...   Inside the military we know Xi still struggles with exerting his control...  Just look at the south China sea.

 

Oh and let's not forget it was purges just like this which resulted in Chairman Moa being removed from power.

[endzone_dave]

What's the first thing you think when you see "Made in China".  Fake or crap.

 

They did great because their cheap labor.  They should have parlayed that into something good, instead, they took the low road.

 

Now other countries are getting into the cheap labor game.  Not surprised growth is slowing down.

[tshile]

lol mississippi is on the same level as yemen

[PeterMP]

Not sure what you are trying to say with that map.  If it's that we have states that are as strong as some countries, I get that but more goes into an economy than GDP.  Sure California is on par with the UK but does that make them a "strong as an ox" economy?  Weren't they boarding on bankruptcy a while back?  If your point was that the US as a whole is stronger than all those countries combined, I don't know how much faith I have in our economy long term.  I view it as the housing crisis.  Every one just acts like its a guarantee that it will always do well while ignoring the signs.  Hell, just look at our debt.  Now factor in the things we will need to invest in the near future (infrastructure, education, etc).  God forbid a decent size war breaks out.  So tell me why I shouldn't worry that a global depression isn't at least realistically possible in the near future (say next 2-10 years). 

 

There is no real reason to believe a global depression is more likely now than any other time in recent history other than the fact that the world is more connected.

[TheGreatBuzz]

There is no real reason to believe a global depression is more likely now than any other time in recent history other than the fact that the world is more connected.

That's exactly why I think it's more likely. And the reports of major economies having issues doesn't help.

Edit: so many economies seem to be a house of Cards stacked up to make one giant card house (the global economy) that you have to wonder how strong of a breeze can it take?

[PeterMP]

That's exactly why I think it's more likely. And the reports of major economies having issues doesn't help.

Edit: so many economies seem to be a house of Cards stacked up to make one giant card house (the global economy) that you have to wonder how strong of a breeze can it take?

 

Economies are always like that way.  Through to the fall of the Soviet Union, all of Eastern Europe's economy was a house of cards stacked on one another.

 

It did affect the rest of the global economy when those cards fell.  But it didn't cause a global depression.

 

I guess my point would be there is never a time when an economy is really as strong as an ox if you don't think that the US and many of European economies aren't today.

[China]

 

I remember when my cat died back in the 1990's it coincided with a Pet food recall which effected many of the popular brands on the market at the time.    Some Chinese factory owner figured out he could increase the protein content of his mixture by adding poison to it.    Killed a lot of Pets here in the states and resulted in the largest pet food recall I can remember.    Think they shot that guy..

 

I remember when I was in the hospital and needed a Heparine drip and the doctor wouldn't give it to me because he said the Heparin was contaminated due to some chinese recall...

 

China has struggled with quality control no doubt as when I googled pet food recall  came up with a number of more recent ones I wasn't aware of.

 

It's not just food they have quality problems with:

 

Probe underway after poisonous running track sickens kids in Beijing school

 

BEIJING, June 3 (Xinhua) -- Beijing's education authority on Friday launched an investigation into a synthetic racetrack at an elementary school that was emitting excessive amounts of poisonous substances.

 

Dozens of students at the Baiyunlu campus of Beijing No.2 Experimental School in Xicheng District suffered from nosebleeds, dizzy spells and coughs, after running on the track last month.

 

Tests on the track this week, nine months after it was put into use, showed excessive amounts of benzene substances and formaldehyde.

 

The Xicheng education commission has ordered that the track be covered in a protective coating, and promised to track down those responsible.

 

There will be a thorough investigation of facilities in several other schools.

 

Medical staff will be despatched to the school to provide treatment and support for students.

 

Similar cases have occurred in Jiangsu, Guangdong and other provinces.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[JMS]

 

It's not just food they have quality problems with:

 

 

Yes it's true...  On the other hand I'm old enough to remember when "made in Japan" was a punchline for cheap products which broke quickly.    That would be in the late 60's early 70's.    So China's problem with quality products isn't insurmountable and is associated with countries with young rapidly growing economies.