Predict the starting OL

[holyhogsbatman]

kyle is a 15 year old who is relying on the internet of all places to give opinions on o-line play. take his youth for what it's worth. nothing.

[Est.1974]

do you still 'honor' the 'open positional battle won' or go with the younger guy you want to develop and hopefully be your future. Whomever that man may be?

The key there is that the younger guys still has to be able to protect RG3 to a sufficient level. If the positional battle is won by a marginal level, throw the young guy in.....

As for the OP, I see LT and LG set with Trent and Lauvao. The rest is wide open, and I sure wouldn't discount Hurt or McGlynn as they both carry the size and measurables that Gruden seems to want.

[Voice_of_Reason]

GHH, The problem with that is that I think priority #1 is to protect Griffin with the best 5 guys you've got. They've got the guys they've got, and at this point, they're kindof locked in with their choices, minus picking up somebody else's sloppy seconds.

I don't think that you endanger your QB by putting in a RG who is developing, if you believe that he could be WORSE than what Chester was last year. If it's about the same, sure, put in the young guy.

But if you seriously think that Chester is better able to protect Griffin than one of the other things then:

1. You have to start Chester. Even if he's the best of the bad, you can't risk additional hits to your QB while developing a RG.

2. That Ribs, Hurt and Gettis probably all need to go away because if they can't push a pretty mediocre RG in years 3 and 4, they're never going to amount to much, and it's time to move on. (I kindof think that's the thought in 'Skins par, which is why they drafted Long.)

The counter argument could be "Well, Ribs couldn't be any worse than Chester." And the answer to that is that he could be. And if he grades out lower than Chester, for the sake of your franchise QB, you owe it to him to put the best guys on your team in front of him.

I am actually slightly optimistic, just because of a numbers game, that one of the 5 options at RG will step in and play well. They are all competing not only for the starting job, but also for a paycheck. And nothing is as good a motivator as the unemployment rolls. So, whether it's Chester bouncing back, or Long, Hurt, Gettis or Ribs taking a leap forward and grabbing the job, I actually think that RG play will improve this year.

I think Polumbus wasn't nearly as bad as people like to pontificate about (and several sources, including Cooley, have stated that). If they get better play from the interior, I think Polumbus is an ok starter for the time being at RT.

Kory just didn't have the size at G to anchor in drop-back sets. Luavao should. Kory might be really solid at C, at least he's not quite as undersized there. RG we just talked about. If those positions hold up a little, and the offense is more predicated on quick throws, I think that the OL, even with Polumbus, will be fine. Not the 1980's Hogs, but definitely good enough to have a top 5 offense.

[darrelgreenie]

Here's where the fine line between 'open positional battles' and 'doing the best long term for the team' has to be weighed up for me. 

 

IF Chester, by default, is the leader through Camp and pre-season (which is always a misnomer itself to me given at least three of the contests are half hearted affairs to be VERY kind); and you know that he's a career average/ not very good lineman who at 31 and 9 years in is never going to be anything but; do you still 'honor' the 'open positional battle won' or go with the younger guy you want to develop and hopefully be your future. Whomever that man may be?

 

Personally, I don't think you'd be sending any 'bad' message to the rest of the team by doing the latter as they work with him on a dailly basis and know how limited he is so going with the future for experience now isn't a negative step at all for me.

Without a doubt. If a young dude and a vet have a similar level of play then I agree go with the young guy. At least with a young guy its a fair expectation for them to improve over the course of the season. With a vet you keep your fingers crossed they can maintain or regain their previous level of play.

 

If he, Lichtensteiger or Polumbus are starting Week 1 we've failed miserably IMHO and are no better than a year back.

I think its a real possibility that they start the season. BUT Moving Kory from LG to Center and inserting Lauvao does make the OL better on paper.

But you could also make the argument that the OL/FO failed to improve at the greatest area of weakness: RG.

And that was one of my issues with this offseason.

Kory just didn't have the size at G to anchor in drop-back sets. Luavao should. Kory might be really solid at C, at least he's not quite as undersized there. RG we just talked about. If those positions hold up a little, and the offense is more predicated on quick throws, I think that the OL, even with Polumbus, will be fine. Not the 1980's Hogs, but definitely good enough to have a top 5 offense.

I agreed. Personnel+scheme should equal a better (slightly) OL. And I don't think the OL was 'bad' last year.

[Voice_of_Reason]

I really think with the 4-5 guys there competing for 1 job, whoever wins it is going to play much better than Chester did last year, even if that guy is Chester.

I think my HOPE is that Long turns out to be an absolute stud and takes the job right away and holds onto it for 8 years. That seems terribly unlikely.

So, my second hope is that Ribs lives up to his 3rd round pick, and in year 3, wins a starting job. That he comes in like a maniac, is in such good shape, pays attention to his technique that he basically forces the coaching staff to play him.

My third hope is just by having 5 guys competing for a job, one of the 5 is going to turn out to be a good starter.

[darrelgreenie]

If any rookie has a chance to step in right away its Long.

Its not rare that a 3rd round OG should start early/ right away.

 

2013 Draft: 3rd round OG

Larry Warford-RG started 16 games and played well +23 (using PFF metrics)

Brian Winters-LG started  13 games  -28

Dallas Thomas-LG started 0

Hugh Thornton-LG 13/1 RG started -15

 

But then you got the 2012 Draft

None of the 3 3rd round OGs started and the only played a little

 

LiRebeus-71 snaps

Brooks-174 snaps

Bergstrom-113

 

The following season though-

Only Brooks stepped up-RG 16 games +14

 

 

If its any indication the plan is from Jay....

 

Gruden on OG Spencer Long: "He did a great job. From the first through fourth practice... He's going to be competitive right away."

 

So maybe LeRibeus was our miss and Long will be a hit?

[RG3theMVP]

As I said earlier, the mauling by San Fran was mostly Griffins fault, as he held on WAY too long. But the person who was ultimately beaten for the sacks, was Trent Williams, who struggled to block Smith for the 5 seconds Griffin needed to throw the ball

 

What game were you watching? I've watched about the first half of that game so far and haven't seen Griffin hold the ball THAT long. The entire o-line looks great in the game so far EXCEPT for Polumbus. He's absolutely getting manhandled at RT to the point where you can tell it's frustrating Griffin.

[Est.1974]

I think the OL is in good shape heading into the offseason. I'm seeing people saying we haven't addressed OL needs whilst also saying we haven't given our younger players a chance. The way I see it, this is the offseason to make or break the 2012 draft class. If they suck, so be it, we find out then move on. Can't have it both ways, at least come our final 53 cuts we will have a clearer direction one way or the other.

[planter]

Discredited? And I'm not only relying on them. The offensive line was pushed around in the run game, but that isn't what we are talking about.

PFF had Skins O-line as 5th best in the NFL? PFF needs better metrics or more astute tape watchers. I do agree that Polumbus is taking more heat than he should and will probably initially start over Moses but that's due to Skins shopping for O-lineman on the thrift aisle - Moses was the 10t OT taken in the Draft.

[Thekyle1591]

What game were you watching? I've watched about the first half of that game so far and haven't seen Griffin hold the ball THAT long. The entire o-line looks great in the game so far EXCEPT for Polumbus. He's absolutely getting manhandled at RT to the point where you can tell it's frustrating Griffin.

We aren't talking about the run game. We are talking about the pass game, and the only guy who was terrible was Williams, but it all wasn't his fault.

[darrelgreenie]

PFF had Skins O-line as 5th best in the NFL? PFF needs better metrics or more astute tape watchers. I do agree that Polumbus is taking more heat than he should and will probably initially start over Moses but that's due to Skins shopping for O-lineman on the thrift aisle - Moses was the 10t OT taken in the Draft.

The ZBS allows for the whole to be greater then the sum of its parts.

Alfred doesn't do it alone. The run game was 5th in yards in the NFL, naturally the OL is gonna get a bump as a result. 

A large bulk of the passing game comes from play-action and when you have the 5th rushing game in the league play-action is gonna afford Griffin a decent amount of time from snap to throw.

There aren't  many places where fans have access to NFL style metrics.

 I think its silly to dismiss PFF just because their metrics don't match your perceptions..

[Dark Acre]

The ZBS allows for the whole to be greater then the sum of its parts.

Alfred doesn't do it alone. The run game was 5th in yards in the NFL, naturally the OL is gonna get a bump as a result. 

A large bulk of the passing game comes from play-action and when you have the 5th rushing game in the league play-action is gonna afford Griffin a decent amount of time from snap to throw.

There aren't  many places where fans have access to NFL style metrics.

 I think its silly to dismiss PFF just because their metrics don't match your perceptions..

That's all true, but particularly in football, the outliers control the game -- the QB who goes 10 for 30 but throws 3 TDs, the D that surrenders yards all day but only gives up FGs, etc.  Unlike baseball and basketball, in which there is much greater regression to the mean (and where the outliers, high/good and low/bad, have less impact individual impact), football really demands qualitative analysis.  Numbers are a nice place to start, but I want someone who can evaluate tape tell me what he (or she), sees.

[darrelgreenie]

Then you'll like PFF

[Burgold]

 

 I think its silly to dismiss PFF just because their metrics don't match your perceptions..

On the other hand, it may be silly to dismiss your eyes as a result of statistics.

[Thekyle1591]

On the other hand, it may be silly to dismiss your eyes as a result of statistics.

I don't know about you, but it's tough for me to watch Tyler Polumbus on every play as well as the actual game.

[Burgold]

Yeah, but I can tell if an oline never wins third and short with a top three rushing running back who's a power runner and tackle breaker and the quarterback gets hit on over 80% of his drop backs than there is something wrong with the o-line.  :2cents:

 

Missing old smilies.  :kickscan:

[Thekyle1591]

Yeah, but I can tell if an oline never wins third and short with a top three rushing running back who's a power runner and tackle breaker and the quarterback gets hit on over 80% of his drop backs than there is something wrong with the o-line. :2cents:

Missing old smilies. :kickscan:

Not sure where you got that 80% stat, but the amount of times RG3 was pressured was actually around 38%. But let's go with hyperbole to justify your opinion.

[Burgold]

Not sure where you got that 80% stat, but the amount of times RG3 was pressured was actually around 38%. But let's go with hyperbole to justify your opinion.

Oh, it was a random pull... it just felt like he was hit on almost every drop back especially, on obvious passing downs.  I'm not talking pressured either, but hit.  38% actually feels like a really high number though.  Think about it, nearly 40% of the time he drops back he is pressured or hit?  On a team with one of the top rushing attacks in the league?

According to this site, he was the 9th most hit QB in the NFL.  Now, that's not all on the O-line, but bottom 10 sucks.

 

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?archive=false&conference=null&role=TM&offensiveStatisticCategory=OFFENSIVE_LINE&defensiveStatisticCategory=null&season=2013&seasonType=REG&tabSeq=2&qualified=false&Submit=Go

[Thekyle1591]

Oh, it was a random pull... it just felt like he was hit on almost every drop back especially, on obvious passing downs. I'm not talking pressured either, but hit. 38% actually feels like a really high number though. Think about it, nearly 40% of the time he drops back he is pressured or hit? On a team with one of the top rushing attacks in the league?

According to this site, he was the 9th most hit QB in the NFL. Now, that's not all on the O-line, but bottom 10 sucks.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?archive=false&conference=null&role=TM&offensiveStatisticCategory=OFFENSIVE_LINE&defensiveStatisticCategory=null&season=2013&seasonType=REG&tabSeq=2&qualified=false&Submit=Go

It was good for 9th highest, but you've got to take into consideration that RG3 played a lot into that number. He needs to be back to 2012 form where he was completing EVERYTHING when under pressure.

[darrelgreenie]

It's funny to me when people try to dismiss PFF then quote random counting stats.

[Thekyle1591]

It's funny to me when people try to dismiss PFF then quote random counting stats.

Or use the "eye test".

[KDawg]

PFF is just like any other stat service. Good for what it is. It does not beat film study, but it's good from a glance and gives you an idea. Our OL had some holes in it. It wasn't bad across the board.

Monty's communication issues were a big part of their shortcomings.

Chester having Father Time catch him last year hurt a bit too. Polumbus is by no means great. But he's serviceable. Lichtensteiger is an average OL. Trent is top notch.

I think if communication is better people will be surprised.

[Burgold]

Except, it seems that the Redskins used the eye test also.  Why else would they sign two free agent o-lineman and draft two others with their top three picks?  Clearly, they see o-line as an area of significant weakness.

[KDawg]

Except, it seems that the Redskins used the eye test also. Why else would they sign two free agent o-lineman and draft two others with their top three picks? Clearly, they see o-line as an area of significant weakness.

Sure it is. Lauvao is a major upgrade for us. If Licht transitions to center and communicates, we can be better there, too. Polumbus should be better by default (doesn't mean good, but serviceable). RG is the question mark. Whoever wins the job can't get abused on a routine basis. And who knows if that was even all Chester's fault. Protection call issues may have factored in. Or not.

[Thekyle1591]

Except, it seems that the Redskins used the eye test also. Why else would they sign two free agent o-lineman and draft two others with their top three picks? Clearly, they see o-line as an area of significant weakness.

Because zone blocking linemen don't fit different schemes. You can't say "well since a new regime got rid of Monty and moved Lict to center they weren't good last year". They also drafted those guys for numerous reasons. Obviously Polumbus isn't a player you want in the future, but that doesn't diminish his quality play last season.