BGO.C.D. - 'The Usual Suspects'

[Tarhog]

I’ve taken to calling John Beck ‘Keyser Soze’.

Up until last night, everyone had a story about him, but I couldn’t find anyone who’d actually ever seen him.

Beck made his burgundy and gold debut last night in Indianapolis. So what did we learn about the dark, mysterious stranger that emerged from the shadows into the bright lights of Lucas Oil Stadium?

We learned plenty. And not enough.

Beck was more than serviceable in his first NFL ‘start’ since Dec 30th, 2007. 14 of 17 for 140 yards, Beck looked poised, comfortable, and every bit the competent game manager. But that may have been by design, as Kyle Shanahan served up a healthy dose of a pounding running game, barely giving Beck the chance to screw up Cinderella’s first public outing in years.

Beck neither dazzled nor made any glaring mistakes, with a poor pass on what should’ve been an easy 3rd down completion the only imperfection marring a performance that should give Skins fans confidence.

Still -Shanahan denials aside – if Beck has quietly been anointed as presumed opening day starter, one has to ask tough questions. If Beck is superior to Grossman, if he’s truly ready for prime time, why is he being spoon-fed, perhaps even protected? One can almost visibly feel the game plan open up when Rex Grossman enters the game.

Grossman shone in the pre-season opener. He looked more pro-bowler than choke artist. Last night, playing with 2nd and 3rd teamers for the 3rd quarter we saw a couple of pro bowl throws with Rex threading the needle downfield for beautiful completions. Rex can move the chains. Then came the familiar moment, the one that’s got Grossman carrying more baggage than almost any other NFL quarterback I can think of – the inexplicable, senseless errant pass thrown up for grabs and an easy Colts interception. Almost 3 quarters of near perfect quarterbacking wiped out with one dumb pass.

Beck? Or Grossman? Ultimately, for this Redskins fan, it’s going to come down to risk vs. reward.

Maybe Mike Shanahan really is smarter than all of us. He’s proven he can succeed at the highest NFL level. He’s done it before, and seems to be doing it the right way now in DC. Fans don’t know what to do with this strange, alien emotion they feel rising in their guts. A sense of real hope, in place of the usual desperate homeristic optimism, has Redskins fans wondering what this team could do in the coming years. Signs of a powerful running game, decent QB protection, speedy and opportunistic players who don’t make a lot of mistakes, and solid play-calling all point to one thing: the Shanahans know what they’re doing.

So maybe John Beck is the answer...

To read the rest of 'The Usual Suspects', click HERE.

[Riggo-toni]

Well written piece Signore Tarhog. Grazie.

[authentic]

When push comes to shove, I have far more confidence in flawed veteran Rex Grossman, than I have in an untested John Beck. Grossman is clearly more comfortable in this offense, makes a much quicker, more decisive read, and poses enough of a downfield threat to keep teams from stacking the box and shutting down our running game . I now know Beck can run the offense serviceably, hand the ball off skillfully, and roll-out and complete the short pass. Beyond that, I’ve yet to see what he can do that Grossman can’t do better or why he’s our presumed starter. That his coaches kept him on a short leash last night only cements that view

I was grappling with this since the end of the game last night. And at this point I have to agree with you. Rex with the occasional bone headed play, but will attack down field vs Beck who is accurate and precise with intermediate plays, but is reluctant to attack the defense. IDK, hopefully the Ravens game will provide us with more of a concrete answer, but right now i'm still willing to roll with Rex.

[Tarhog]

I think there are two glaring questions:

Who should start against NY?

Who WILL start against NY?

Barring a disastrous or incredibly impressive performance by one guy or another in Baltimore, I think we'll get some indication of who WILL start the opener on Thursday against the Ravens. If Rex gets the start, I'd say that signals it's still an open competition going into that game. If it's Beck, I'd say that's a sign the decision is made. They may have already announced that...dunno.

[Oldfan]

Tarhog ~ I’ve taken to calling John Beck ‘Keyser Soze’.

Up until last night, everyone had a story about him, but I couldn’t find anyone who’d actually ever seen him.

I like that.

We agree that we now have two QBs who can run the scheme. But, to my eyes, Beck is clearly superior in talent. He’s more mobile than Rex which means he will extend plays that Rex can’t; and he will give defenses fits on Shanny’s stretch- rollouts to either side. His passing is sharper and more accurate on the short-to-medium throws which makes him ideally suited for a ball control WCO.

John Beck has won the job, IMO.

[Tarhog]

Interesting how we can watch the same thing and come to totally different conclusions. I've heard other guys talk about Beck having better mobility, but I don't see it. I'd argue Grossman gets the ball out much faster (at least from what I've seen so far), so mobility is less important even if Beck does have the edge there. And I really view Grossman as much more accurate (at least on passes beyond 5 yards, although we've had precious little opportunity to judge Beck's ability to accurately throw beyond that range).

He may have won the job - but I think it's a stretch to say it's based on performance. Put his first half this week up against Rex's last week - I don't think it's even close. But we can respectfully differ on that

[Oldfan]

...He may have won the job - but I think it's a stretch to say it's based on performance. Put his first half this week up against Rex's last week - I don't think it's even close. But we can respectfully differ on that

I think the performances were about equal. For what it's worth, Rex's QBR was 109 against PIT and Beck's 101. It's on talent that fits the scheme that I see a clear winner.

[Jumbo]

I will never be paid by any NFL team for my opinion , but I can't believe the job of starting QB is fully decided yet. I agree with the generally noted pros and cons of both guys that have been thoroughly and accurately mentioned by the sharper folks who post here, and where I'm at right now is happy that it looks like the pluses of both (like most everything else on this team) are pretty encouraging at this point.

[Burgold]

I will never be paid by any NFL team for my opinion , but I can't believe the job of starting QB is fully decided yet. I agree with the generally noted pros and cons of both guys that have been thoroughly and accurately mentioned by the sharper folks who post here, and where I'm at right now is happy that it looks like the pluses of both are (like most everything else on this team) are pretty encouraging at this point.

Yup. Basically, I'd refer to my opening post of the horserace thread. I'd say it's even with Beck having at most a nose lead because of Grossman's pick. Then again, Grossman excelled against a far superior defense that historically takes preseason quite seriously (look how they responded to their thrashing in their next game against the Eagles).

My hope is that they alternate starts the next two games and then let the best player win. Still, I'm more comfortable then I thought I would be.

[ouvan59]

Beck made his burgundy and gold debut last night in Indianapolis.

For 2011 he did. He played three preseason games last year as well.

---------- Post added August-20th-2011 at 12:12 PM ----------

Interesting how we can watch the same thing and come to totally different conclusions. I've heard other guys talk about Beck having better mobility, but I don't see it.

I don't see how you can't see it, particularly on the rollouts to the left. It takes Rex so long to get his body in good throwing position. I think it's obvious that Rex knows the offense better and delilvers the ball quicker but that isn't because he's just as mobile. It will be interesting to see how Beck progresses in this area.

[Tarhog]

For 2011 he did. He played three preseason games last year as well.

---------- Post added August-20th-2011 at 12:12 PM ----------

I don't see how you can't see it, particularly on the rollouts to the left. It takes Rex so long to get his body in good throwing position. I think it's obvious that Rex knows the offense better and delilvers the ball quicker but that isn't because he's just as mobile. It will be interesting to see how Beck progresses in this area.

I meant 'NFL start' in B&G, but yeah, you are correct. I would agree Beck is younger and more athletic than Rex, I just don't think it's a significant enough edge to make much difference. I'm putting more weight on the ability to make quick decisions and get the ball out quickly because it takes a huge amount of pressure off the O-line which I think will be improved, but still a work in progress this year.

[Oldfan]

I meant 'NFL start' in B&G, but yeah, you are correct. I would agree Beck is younger and more athletic than Rex, I just don't think it's a significant enough edge to make much difference. I'm putting more weight on the ability to make quick decisions and get the ball out quickly because it takes a huge amount of pressure off the O-line which I think will be improved, but still a work in progress this year.

The stretch rollouts take a lot of pressure off the line as well. In 2008, with Jay Cutler running this offense, Denver had an NFL low 12 sacks. It think Jay was sacked more than 50 times last year in Mike Martz's offense.

[Tarhog]

That's true. While acknowledging we're splitting hairs and that with either guy, we're in a lot better shape than we ever were going to be with McNabb under center, the way I would put it is this: If I have to choose between who is more athletic and 'mobile' and who is a legitimate threat to make accurate passes downfield and make quick decisions and reads, I'm going with the latter. Maybe I'll change my mind if KS actually takes the leash off Beck in the next couple weeks and we really get to see what he can do.

[GWinSkins83]

I think Beck is a better QB than Grossman. He has a quicker release, more zip, better pocket presence, more of a thinking QB, same if not better accuracy, and more mobile. I think Grossman got the ball of earlier because he's been in the system longer. But I think after a few more starts n practices I can see Beck letting it rip more n faster. I also think that last night game the online was horrible in passpro. Trent got beat like four times alone. 2 by freeney and 2 by the second string. I think he needs to look off some of his reads quicker than last night but he did complete it to 7 different WRs and that is good if you ask me. I think the writing is on the wall if you think they are baby feeding Beck. That tells me that he is their starter and they want him to build up his confidence and see as many completions as possible. Rythme the what Becks game is based off.

[Oldfan]

That's true. While acknowledging we're splitting hairs and that with either guy, we're in a lot better shape than we ever were going to be with McNabb under center, the way I would put it is this: If I have to choose between who is more athletic and 'mobile' and who is a legitimate threat to make accurate passes downfield and make quick decisions and reads, I'm going with the latter. Maybe I'll change my mind if KS actually takes the leash off Beck in the next couple weeks and we really get to see what he can do.

I'm a strong proponent of ball control. My only concern is that the QB should have the arm strength to go deep if the defense compresses the field. As long as my QB isn't a weak-armed Chad Pennington or Todd Collins, I want the guy who can move the chains consistently with high percentage throws that allow lots of YAC.

[Darkstarr]

The only thing i did not see out of Beck is an acurate long ball yet. He looked alot better then I thought he would for his first start this year. ATM I "think" I like Beck more, but just by a hair. My reason for this is 2 fold. He has not thrown a pick (I will give up a ton not to have my qb throw boneheaded picks), and his moblity on the bootleg is very important in this offense. I say that because the throught of the bootleg really keeps the backside defenders at home which helps those stretch plays a ton.

[MumboSauce]

It's certainly an interesting quarterback race in Washington...what else is new? lol But I'm pretty intrigued more than I was in the offseason. Neither are ideal or great but one will prevail and be ok enough I suppose. I'm seeing more from both than I thought I would in a positive way.

[Tarhog]

I think Beck is a better QB than Grossman. He has a quicker release, more zip, better pocket presence, more of a thinking QB, same if not better accuracy, and more mobile. I think Grossman got the ball of earlier because he's been in the system longer. But I think after a few more starts n practices I can see Beck letting it rip more n faster. I also think that last night game the online was horrible in passpro. Trent got beat like four times alone. 2 by freeney and 2 by the second string. I think he needs to look off some of his reads quicker than last night but he did complete it to 7 different WRs and that is good if you ask me. I think the writing is on the wall if you think they are baby feeding Beck. That tells me that he is their starter and they want him to build up his confidence and see as many completions as possible. Rythme the what Becks game is based off.

All great points (even if I'd quibble on the 'zip' and 'quick release' nod you give Beck). And yeah, that they kept the leash on him not only speaks to wanting to protect him, but also I think to wanting to make sure he looked solid and didn't make any glaring mistakes. I think Shanahan wants Beck to be the starter and is trying to avoid generating major mistakes that might put pressure on them to alter that plan. But they won't be able to protect him for long.

The other thing I *think* Oldfan may be getting at is, when you have a really young team, and are trying to instill confidence, stability, and progress in going forward, that puts a higher premium on not killing drives with mistakes, or putting them in any more difficult circumstances than are absolutely necessary (such as defending a short-field after a boneheaded Grossman INT). So it's possible they know Grossman has more ability, but that Beck's caution and coachability trumps that.

Who knows

Preseason=Speculation. What else do we have until the real bullets start flying?

[santanathegreat]

Beck does several things MUCH better than Rex.

1. Scrambling out of the pocket. In Shanny's system, that's a huge advantage to have, because many of the plays are based off bootlegs and rollouts.

2. Running the bootleg. In this system, whoever runs the bootleg the best supreme. The system is heavily dependent on that skill.

3. Not making dumb passes that lead to turnovers. Beck is a safer option. He may not throw down the field with the same frequency as Grossman, but he sure as hell won't throw stupid passes in triple coverage.

If you don't see the difference in mobility between the two...well then we must watching two different games.

[sportjunkie07]

its hard to say which qb is better and who should be starting week 1. from all i have seen though, here are my thoughts on the issue.

rex has superior knowledge of the system, he knows he's got an open guy in the flats, and allows more time for the 1st and secondary reads to open up. and if they dont get open, he quickly throws to the rb in the flats. beck seemed to stare down receivers a bit, maybe focusing only on one receiver then eyeing the checkdown. it allowed the defense to start closing in on that receiver and limit his ypc. this was evident to me especially when beck went to the checkdowns. If beck gets more knowlegeable in the system (which is an IF because JC could not do so), perhaps he will be able to not eye receivers as much.

we have to see beck throw the deep ball and stretch the field. this is critical. right now, we have no idea if he can do this. rex has shown that he can. we cant expect our rushing attack to be so good every game. if beck cant throw a good deep ball, defenses will stack the box and shut down our short game.

beck has shown good accuracy on intermediate and short routes. some of his throws on the move showed impressive accuracy. this might have to be his bread and butter, especially with his low release point. and on that low release point, the coaches are just going to have to accept that there will be more batted balls with beck at qb. its just gonna happen.

beck did show better ball security while getting sacked, but its a small sample size and ive gotta see more to say that he is better than grossman in that regard.

so right now, i think rex is the better qb in our system and that our offense runs better with him at the helm, despite his turnovers. if beck can become more knowledgeable in the system and show that he can throw deep, then i would be ok if beck was the starter.

[Tarhog]

Grossman being an INT machine is mostly urban legend. Beck (in his very limited time with Miami) had a 2.8% INT rate. Grossman, with exponentially more game time is only at a 3.6% career INT rate. That's better than Jim Kelly and Roger Staubach had btw. For the non-mathmetician's in the crowd, that means for every 100 passes Grossman or Beck throws, RG throws one more than Beck to the wrong team. And that's assuming Beck can keep that low 2.8% when he's throwing more than 20 times in a season.

That doesn't make Grossman Jim Kelly or Roger Staubach. It does indicate that the rep as a turnover machine isn't based on reality though.

I've already said I agree Beck is more athletic - the point is, it's not just about being able to sprint out gracefully to the right or left, it's about what you do with the ball once you're outside of the pocket. I think Grossman gets the ball out quicker - that's all.

[SWFLSkins]

I'm a strong proponent of ball control. My only concern is that the QB should have the arm strength to go deep if the defense compresses the field. As long as my QB isn't a weak-armed Chad Pennington or Todd Collins, I want the guy who can move the chains consistently with high percentage throws that allow lots of YAC.

I would add that I want "good feet", not "happy feet"

[SKIN4WAHOOZ]

Maybe Mike Shanahan really is smarter than all of us. He’s proven he can succeed at the highest NFL level. He’s done it before, and seems to be doing it the right way now in DC.

As far as how to build and coach a football team....a fan or writer (or anyone else who doesnt work in the NFL) is a gosh dang idiot to think otherwise.

[sportjunkie07]

i just watched the beck's interview after the game last night... very impressed.

[Enter Apotheosis]

Count me in with those who are baffled by the notion that Beck doesn't look like the significantly more polished QB in this competition after last night. He was more patient, hit his receivers in stride and in the open, appeared to make better reads, and made more plays with his feet. I wouldn't call it a complete game by any means because he didn't have any reason to show off his deep ball (or lack thereof, which could very well be a disqualifying factor) but he just looked like the better system QB.

That doesn't make Grossman Jim Kelly or Roger Staubach. It does indicate that the rep as a turnover machine isn't based on reality though.

Grossman's turnover machine reputation is based more on how he turns over the ball than it is the sheer volume of balls he turns over. Of his 25 turnovers in his only full season as a starter, 21 of them came in only 5 games. Giving turnovers up in bunches is his MO, even though he's not like that every game. Comparing his turnover rate to Kelly and Staubach is also fairly weak considering how the QB position and rules of the game have evolved over the last 20+ years. The kinds of INT rates that were common among good QBs in the past would be rather pedestrian by today's standards, where good QBs tend to throw less INTs on a higher volume of overall work.