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Where to draft a Quarterback


DaveButzHelmet

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So I was talking to a friend of mine who is a 49ers fan and we were discussing what we would give up in terms of a trade for the right to draft Andrew Luck (this was when it was presumed Luck would be going pro). My friend stated he would not give up much and would rather draft a quarterback in the later rounds like Tom Brady. I disagreed with him and said that when you can draft a franchise guy, you do whatever it takes to get him. This lead me to do some research.

I am not sure if this deserves it's own thread, so if it needs to be moved/merged please do so.

I looked at every single QB drafted between the years 2000-2008. I figured this was a quality sample as it incorporates most of the new "pass friendly" NFL rules and the 2009/2010 drafts may be too new to evaluate players. Here is some research I came up with:

Total QB's drafted between 2000-2008 = 114

Total QB's drafted in the Top 11 picks = 14

Total QB's drafted between pick 12 til the end of 1st round = 9

Total QB's drafted in 2nd round = 10

3rd round = 13

4th round = 9

5th round = 19

6th round = 19

7th round = 21

So, the question I had is what type of quarterback are you getting from each round?

Top 11 picks = In my opinion there are 6 QB's drafted in this area that can be considered "perennial playoff and super bowl contenders over an 8 year period." (This will be the criteria I will be using for each round. Back up QB's are nice, and average QB's are nice, but NFL teams don't CONSISTENTLY win without a "franchise" guy in today's NFL). These 6 QB's are Vick, Eli Manning, Rivers, Rothlisberger, Cutler, Ryan.

So, the percentage of hitting a "Franchise QB" in the Top 11 picks = 6/14, 42.86%

The next best QB's taken in this area are: Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Vince Young, Alex Smith (I add this to show the type of talent that can be expected in each round)

Pick 12 til the end of 1st round = In my opinion there are 2 QB's who fit the criteria; Rodgers and Flacco.

Percentage is 2/9 = 22.22%

Next best QB's are Chad Pennington, Rex Grossman, Jason Campbell.

2nd Round = In my opinion there is 1 QB who fits the criteria; Drew Brees.

Percentage is 1/10 = 10%

Next best QB's are Kevin Kolb, Chad Henne

3rd Round = In my opinion there are 0 QB's who fit the criteria.

Percentage is 0/13 = 0%

Next best QB's are Matt Schaub, Charlie Frye, Trent Edwards

4th Round = In my opinion there are 0 QB's who fit the criteria.

Percentage is 0/9 = 0%

Next best QB's are David Garrard, Kyle Orton, Sage Rosenfels

5th Round = In my opinion there are 0 QB's who fit the criteria.

Percentage is 0/19 = 0%

Next best QB's are Troy Smith, Dennis Dixon

6th Round = In my opinion there is 1 QB who fits the criteria; Tom Brady.

Percentage is 1/19 = 5.26%

Next best QB's are Marc Bulger, Derek Anderson, Bruce Gradkowski

7th Round = In my opinion there are 0 QB's who fit the criteria.

Percentage is 0/21 = 0%

Next best QB's are Matt Cassell, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tyler Thigpen

Undrafted Free Agents = There is only 1 UDFA that would even be arguable right now for this exercise and that is Tony Romo sits to pee. And I really don't want this thread to turn into a Tony Romo sits to pee debate, so I am just going to say that the percentage of hitting on a legitimate QB as an UDFA is EXTREMELY low. I think this should easily be agreed upon by all.

So, here is some data. Take it how you will. Some may find it interesting, and others may just think it's a big waste of time and means absolutely zero. That's OK. I also know that people can argue that maybe Carson Palmer or Matt Cassell or Matt Schaub or whoever else should be considered in a different category. That is fine also. You can change the percentages as you wish. This is just my opinion.

However, what I take from this info (and using it in today's real life draft) is that if you think a QB in the top 11 has what it takes, then you take him! Grabbing a QB later (like the Dalton's, McElroy's, Ponder's, etc, is EXTREMELY difficult). Coupling this exercise with who made the playoffs this year: Peyton, Ryan, Flacco, Vick, Rothlisberger were 1st rounders, Brees a 2nd rounder, Brady a 6th rounder and Hasselbeck a 6th rounder a long time ago (and he only made the playoffs because of his poor division); it just looks like the best value BY FAR is investing in a 1st round QB.

Thanks, hopefully if you read this far you will at least take something away from this exercise.

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I agree that there are not QB's worth taking in the top 10 this year. I do not think Locker, Mallett, Gabbert or Newton will be Franchise guys for a variety of reasons. In my opinion, since the Skins don't have a Franchise guy, they are best off trading back and picking OL, DL and LB's that fit the scheme. Without a QB, the team needs to build from the lines out. That is the foundation of a team when there is no QB. Then try and see if one is available next year.

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I agree that there are not QB's worth taking in the top 10 this year. I do not think Locker, Mallett, Gabbert or Newton will be Franchise guys for a variety of reasons. In my opinion, since the Skins don't have a Franchise guy, they are best off trading back and picking OL, DL and LB's that fit the scheme. Without a QB, the team needs to build from the lines out. That is the foundation of a team when there is no QB. Then try and see if one is available next year.

We need to draft DLine, CB and WR. All of those positions warrant #10 overall pick. If one of those CBs fall, jump on them without question.

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I guess I'm in the minority because I believe that both Gabbert and Locker are indeed Franchise QBs.

Why do you think that?

i feel like some people say that and haven't gotten a good look at them.

Have you watched Andrew Luck highlights and then compared them to Gabbert and Locker??

you notice 1 thing right away... Gabbert and Locker run a lot... they roll out.. they run with the ball.. they run TD's in.. they lower their head a lot. That IS NOT something I want to see my QB doing in the NFL. When you're a big guy.. you can get by like that in college and not worry too much about a LB'er or CB killing you.. not in the NFL though.

In contrast.. Luck drops back, has nice footwork, quick release and is extremely accurate. You feel like you are watching an NFL QB when you watch Andrew Luck highlights. I feel like i'm watching a kid that's going to get killed in the NFL when watching Gabbert and Locker.

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I live on the West Coast so I have watched Locker a good bit. The reason to me he is not a franchise QB is due to the fact that he is very inaccurate. And I think that accuracy is very difficult to teach and gain if you don't have it. Scrambling, mobile, inaccurate quarterbacks can do fine in college, however, they truly struggle in the NFL.

As for Gabbert, I admit I haven't seen a ton of him. The reason I am wary is that spread offense college guys, who haven't played a ton in college, don't tend to translate well to the NFL.

Mallett's footwork and ability to make plays when there is pressure is awful. It's nowhere near NFL caliber. And with his size, and limited mobility, this will be difficult to change. Watch Brady, Brees, Manning, Rodgers and Ryan in the pocket. They may not be running quarterbacks like Vick or Locker, but their footwork is excellent (like Montana's was).

Newton is nowhere near NFL ready either. His accuracy and ability to read defenses are very low.

And using this information in the thread, if there are no franchise guys in the top picks, it's not worth burning a pick in the 2nd, 3rd, etc especially with the TONS of needs of the Redskins.

---------- Post added January-18th-2011 at 10:55 AM ----------

Remember this as well:

When drafting a QB, if he is not a Franchise guy, he is pretty much not worth drafting. For example, a team can select a RB like Darren Sproles in the 3rd round, and although he may not be a star, or even a starter, he can be a valuable piece to an offense and team. If a QB is drafted and turns out to be a non-Franchise guy, he is pretty much useless. Backups don't play unless there is an injury, and average quarterbacks are dangerous. Falling in love with the average QB is one of the worst things an NFL franchise can do. Look at the Jaguars for example. They have been decent behind Garrard. He is a solid NFL player and he was taken in the 3rd round. But unless he is a Franchise QB, he really holds the entire Jaguars team back. They will never be a CONSISTENT and PERENNIAL playoff and Super Bowl contender with him at the helm. I use Garrard as just one example, but there are many more just like him.

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I'd say that Matt Shaub and Marc Bulger are/were franchise QBs. I'd also be happy with Carson Palmer. Nevertheless, your point still stands - - picking a highly graded QB in the first round gives you a better chance of getting a franchise QB than picking a lower graded QB in rounds 4-7. Question is whether any of the QBs in the upcoming draft will be highly graded and more importantly do their skill sets translate into the Kyle Shanahan offense (not whether they would be good in someone else's offense scheme).

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It can be argued that guys like Schaub, Palmer, Bulger, etc could be considered franchise guys. I just don't see anyone in this draft who can be considered a franchise guy, whether it be the late rounds or early rounds. I know that some posters like ASF (who I enjoy reading and thoroughly enjoy his QB model) believe that McElroy can be a franchise guy, and others like Devlin, etc. I just think it is a wasted pick. And with the Skins needing help virtually everywhere; OL, DL, LB, CB, S, RB, WR; it would be a waste to take a non-franchise QB.

Also, it will be interesting the next couple years when first rounders Stafford, Sanchez, Freeman and Bradford are added to this mix. Looking like a pretty good group of 1st rounders.

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So I was talking to a friend of mine who is a 49ers fan and we were discussing what we would give up in terms of a trade for the right to draft Andrew Luck (this was when it was presumed Luck would be going pro). My friend stated he would not give up much and would rather draft a quarterback in the later rounds like Tom Brady. I disagreed with him and said that when you can draft a franchise guy, you do whatever it takes to get him. This lead me to do some research.

I am not sure if this deserves it's own thread, so if it needs to be moved/merged please do so.

I looked at every single QB drafted between the years 2000-2008. I figured this was a quality sample as it incorporates most of the new "pass friendly" NFL rules and the 2009/2010 drafts may be too new to evaluate players. Here is some research I came up with:

Total QB's drafted between 2000-2008 = 114

Total QB's drafted in the Top 11 picks = 14

Total QB's drafted between pick 12 til the end of 1st round = 9

Total QB's drafted in 2nd round = 10

3rd round = 13

4th round = 9

5th round = 19

6th round = 19

7th round = 21

So, the question I had is what type of quarterback are you getting from each round?

Top 11 picks = In my opinion there are 6 QB's drafted in this area that can be considered "perennial playoff and super bowl contenders over an 8 year period." (This will be the criteria I will be using for each round. Back up QB's are nice, and average QB's are nice, but NFL teams don't CONSISTENTLY win without a "franchise" guy in today's NFL). These 6 QB's are Vick, Eli Manning, Rivers, Rothlisberger, Cutler, Ryan.

So, the percentage of hitting a "Franchise QB" in the Top 11 picks = 6/14, 42.86%

The next best QB's taken in this area are: Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Vince Young, Alex Smith (I add this to show the type of talent that can be expected in each round)

Pick 12 til the end of 1st round = In my opinion there are 2 QB's who fit the criteria; Rodgers and Flacco.

Percentage is 2/9 = 22.22%

Next best QB's are Chad Pennington, Rex Grossman, Jason Campbell.

2nd Round = In my opinion there is 1 QB who fits the criteria; Drew Brees.

Percentage is 1/10 = 10%

Next best QB's are Kevin Kolb, Chad Henne

3rd Round = In my opinion there are 0 QB's who fit the criteria.

Percentage is 0/13 = 0%

Next best QB's are Matt Schaub, Charlie Frye, Trent Edwards

4th Round = In my opinion there are 0 QB's who fit the criteria.

Percentage is 0/9 = 0%

Next best QB's are David Garrard, Kyle Orton, Sage Rosenfels

5th Round = In my opinion there are 0 QB's who fit the criteria.

Percentage is 0/19 = 0%

Next best QB's are Troy Smith, Dennis Dixon

6th Round = In my opinion there is 1 QB who fits the criteria; Tom Brady.

Percentage is 1/19 = 5.26%

Next best QB's are Marc Bulger, Derek Anderson, Bruce Gradkowski

7th Round = In my opinion there are 0 QB's who fit the criteria.

Percentage is 0/21 = 0%

Next best QB's are Matt Cassell, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tyler Thigpen

Undrafted Free Agents = There is only 1 UDFA that would even be arguable right now for this exercise and that is Tony Romo sits to pee. And I really don't want this thread to turn into a Tony Romo sits to pee debate, so I am just going to say that the percentage of hitting on a legitimate QB as an UDFA is EXTREMELY low. I think this should easily be agreed upon by all.

So, here is some data. Take it how you will. Some may find it interesting, and others may just think it's a big waste of time and means absolutely zero. That's OK. I also know that people can argue that maybe Carson Palmer or Matt Cassell or Matt Schaub or whoever else should be considered in a different category. That is fine also. You can change the percentages as you wish. This is just my opinion.

However, what I take from this info (and using it in today's real life draft) is that if you think a QB in the top 11 has what it takes, then you take him! Grabbing a QB later (like the Dalton's, McElroy's, Ponder's, etc, is EXTREMELY difficult). Coupling this exercise with who made the playoffs this year: Peyton, Ryan, Flacco, Vick, Rothlisberger were 1st rounders, Brees a 2nd rounder, Brady a 6th rounder and Hasselbeck a 6th rounder a long time ago (and he only made the playoffs because of his poor division); it just looks like the best value BY FAR is investing in a 1st round QB.

Thanks, hopefully if you read this far you will at least take something away from this exercise.

Good job DBH. The only possible debate is with Palmer and Grossman. The only reason the Bengals ever won in the past was because of him. He has fallen off recently after injury but he took them to the playoffs a few times. And Grossman. We may think a certain way of him, but he was a first round QB that took his team to the SB. That has to count for something.

---------- Post added January-18th-2011 at 04:27 PM ----------

It can be argued that guys like Schaub, Palmer, Bulger, etc could be considered franchise guys. I just don't see anyone in this draft who can be considered a franchise guy, whether it be the late rounds or early rounds. I know that some posters like ASF (who I enjoy reading and thoroughly enjoy his QB model) believe that McElroy can be a franchise guy, and others like Devlin, etc. I just think it is a wasted pick. And with the Skins needing help virtually everywhere; OL, DL, LB, CB, S, RB, WR; it would be a waste to take a non-franchise QB.

Also, it will be interesting the next couple years when first rounders Stafford, Sanchez, Freeman and Bradford are added to this mix. Looking like a pretty good group of 1st rounders.

Well youre right here. The key point is to get a franchise QB. The problem is that Franchise QBs dont come out every year and they are by far the most important position on the field. Thats why when one is present, you get him at the expense of all else. If there is not a franchise QB, then don't draft one. It is a waste.

I dont know if these guys are franchise guys. If there is a franchise guy...get him and I dont care how many draft picks we give up. The Giants, Bears and Jets have shown that you can give up a fortune for a franchise QB and not set your team back. If there isnt, then draft something else.

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I agree that there are not QB's worth taking in the top 10 this year.

I think the likelyhood that no QB's are selected before our pick aint likely and not gonna happen. But say it does...If it does I would say it's a must that we take the best one peroid with our first pick. How often do you think we will be able to take the choice of QB's in any draft? That usually is not happening to your club unless your in the top 3 picks. If we truely end up with the choice of the QB's and none have been taken then we should take whomever ShannyAllen wants. Not taking a QB in this draft isn't an option. We must start planning for the future

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I'm warming up to the idea of selecting Jake Locker. I'm also up for selecting Ryan Mallet. Other than that, I'm not really sold and I'd be happy seeing us draft along the lines or at LB while we wait on a QB worthy of selecting. But if the coaching staff feel strongly about a QB in this draft, then I'll (reluctantly) put my faith in them for another season.

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Yes it's the old chicken or the egg argument. Do better teams draft better players/QBs or do better teams make more out of their players drafted?

QB, in particular is a position which is more dependent on other positions for success. It is part of the reason for the boom or bust risk of top ten drafted QBs. Any team in the top ten has line problems somewhere, I would address that before investing heavily in QB. Promising QBs still fail on badly built teams.

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This is the year to build the trenches. In my opinion there is no Franchise Top 11 QB available. So rather than putting a square peg in a round hole and drafting one at #10, the Skins would be much better off and trading down and stockpiling picks. Also, they would be better off not taking one in the later rounds. As the data shows, it is VERY difficult to land a QB who can be considered useful at all. Trade down, build the DL, OL and LB.

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