Where to draft a Quarterback

[wildbill1952]

Still looks like 50-50 for that top round draft QB.

Does the Franchise QB make the team a winner or does a winning team make the QB a Franchise QB? Probably some of both but probably more of the latter. Assuming Brady or Peyton are the best QB's in the league, and undoubtedly franchise QB's, how would they fare at Carolina? Why did McNabb, who looked very good on the Iggles for so long, look average (9th overall passing in yds/game) or worse on the Skins?

If it was just the QB, Jim Kelly and Buffalo would have beaten the Skins and Rypien, and Elway and the Broncos would beaten Doug Willaims and the Skins. Why didn't Brady beat Sanchez at home last weekend? The answer is simple: it's not all about the QB.

[MumboSauce]

I'm convinced, take a stud at some other position at 10 if you can't trade down. whether it be a cb, wr, dl, ol, linebacker whatever. Obviously trading down and getting more players in those areas would be great considering the void of talent at several positions. We need to start developing a young QB though to take over sooner than later...who says we'll be anywhere in position to get Luck next year? Any chance it's Beck? or maybe take a late round flyer on a guy. idk

[darrelgreenie]

Yes it's the old chicken or the egg argument. Do better teams draft better players/QBs or do better teams make more out of their players drafted?

QB, in particular is a position which is more dependent on other positions for success. It is part of the reason for the boom or bust risk of top ten drafted QBs. Any team in the top ten has line problems somewhere, I would address that before investing heavily in QB. Promising QBs still fail on badly built teams.

Agreed.

Its very rare that a bad franchise (FO, coaching, personell) produces a franchise QB.

[Newera]

Build other areas of the team. Continue to play Grossman and develop Beck. Next year make play for Luck or Moore.

[mistertim]

Build other areas of the team. Continue to play Grossman and develop Beck. Next year make play for Luck or Moore.

Sure, that is one way to do it. The problem is this: lets say the Skins keep building other areas of the team through the draft and FA. Rex can be a decent (if inconsistent) QB and with some upgrades our defense would be better. So with that we could probably tack two or three more wins I'm sure. So then we're at 8-8 or maybe 9-7 but not a playoff team and not really a team that is likely to be a contender year in and year out and we'll be stuck drafting in the mid 1st or a bit lower. By that point the top rated QBs will be gone so you either "keep building" again or you take a chance on a lower rated QB (which can work, it just isn't as likely).

Or you could try a bunch of times to find a "gem" in the mid or late rounds. Problems with that are that 1) those QBs rarely ever work out and 2) they dropped for a reason, ie they will likely need lots of time to get to the point where they are ready to play in an NFL game. Unless we completely stink the joint up in 2011 and end up picking top 3 we aren't going to get Luck, especially if he has another great year. The top rated QBs are generally gone by around 10.

Could it work? Sure. We could get lucky and be that team that ends up with some insane defense and a "decent to good" offense and go deep into the playoffs or even the SB one year. But there is a difference between the rare teams that do that and the teams that are contenders year in and year out. The latter all have top flight QBs. Either way, Grossman is Grossman and Beck will be 30 before the season starts. I have little doubt that Shanny is going to want "his guy" sooner rather than later. Maybe it won't happen this draft, maybe it will. But you can bet that, unless he isn't planning on staying for long, he is going to go for it at some point soon. IMO, if a QB is there at 10 who they are high on, pull the trigger.

[DaveButzHelmet]

A lot of people have been writing in this thread and in others, the need to bulk up both the offensive and defensive lines. I completely agree. But the notion that building up the lines comes before getting a Franchise QB, I respectfully disagree with. However, you can only play the cards you've been dealt, and in my opinion the quarterbacks for this 2011 Draft are not Franchise caliber. Therefore none of them are worth drafting at all, no matter the round.

Personally with this draft I would not draft a QB in any round. As the numbers show, it is virtually impossible to get a quarterback that would be worthwhile anywhere in the draft other than the 1st round. However, offensive gaurds, centers and LB's are EXCELLENT value in the 2nd and 3rd round. This is the perfect year to trade back and gain a center, LB, DL and OG within the first four picks of the draft. Then, continue the QB search in 2012.

[Doctor ToughLove]

Agreed.

Its very rare that a bad franchise (FO, coaching, personell) produces a franchise QB.

Yes I think that is right. I think it is because trying to find "The Franchise QB" is putting all your eggs in one basket. If he doesn't develop, you got nothing. If he gets injured, you got nothing. If he becomes a head case, you got nothing. And when you invest in and even get "The Franchise QB", he can hold your franchise hostage (like Bret Favre has done to his last three franchises, but even Jay Cutler, Vince Young have done).

Better to build a more diversified team, at a better value, and at a lesser risk.

Joe Gibbs worked his way to four Superbowls without heavily investing in a single QB. Walsh worked his way to three Superbowls without heavily investing in a single QB. Parcells worked his way to three Superbowls and didn't win the one with his most heavily invested QB. George Siefert went to two Superbowls without investing heavily in a single QB. And all four put to shame the most prized "Franchise QB" of the decade, and the most costly draft-wise.

Shanahan would deliver Superbowls with an aging Elway fourteen years later. But not until drafting a more well balanced team. And not until an aging Elway would voluntarily lessened his contract burden to acquire a better supporting cast. And not until after Elway had given his franchise an ultimatum to fire their coach or he wouldn't play.

[lou4gehrig]

Yeah, why bother drafting a QB? Let's just wait and wait and wait until we end up with the next Peyton Manning 10 years from now. Who cares if these guys are surefire top QB's.

We'd be lucky to have guys like Freeman, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, even Cutler as our QB and they were all drafted from 11-24 because they were exactly prototype sure fire guys with some aspect of their game in question.

Of the 3 guys likely to be available (Newton, Mallett, Locker), you have to trust in Shanahan to figure out who is going to be out Rodgers or Roethlisberger. This teams needs a franchise face to build around. And that player isn't going to be playing NT, WR or OL.

[Tastes Like Chicken]

Good post. I will say that I'm not sold on any of these QB's as a sure thing, franchise QB. I think it's easier said than done when it comes to trading down. So take BPA (within reason- we have many holes, but do not need, for example, another TE). Hopefully that's someone who plays on one of the lines and fills a need that we can't solve on the FA market. If you CAN trade down, this is a great year to trade for someone's 2012 1st or 2nd round picks, which we then use as part of a package to nab Luck next year.

[number twenty-eight]

Very good OP, traditionally you get your franchise QBs at the top of the draft in the first 24 picks or so, but what seems to be missing in the analysis is that the QBs chosen were thought to be worthy of their draft selection at the time. The disconnect is whether or not there are franchise types available this year and its not looking like there are very good options, when pro talent and onfield play are considered. Compared to most years, I mean.

With the QBs thought to be available at our pick, it would at least appear to be a very risky choice to make (for the value of the pick), and with our roster in such disrepair it seems to me like the best choice is trade down and spread the risk around by filling/upgrading other positions. I'm interested to hear how their evaluations go and what the Shanahans think of this crop.

[Hail Gibbs]

Typically I would say that you need to grab a franchise QB in the first round, as history shows it is very difficult to pluck a franchise QB after the 1st round as they typically don't slide. Especially recent history as it has become even more difficult in recent times to find that franchise QB after round 1, as the OP highlighted so well.

Having said that... This is one year that I would take the opposite approach if I were drafting a QB as I am not convinced any of the top rated QBs (Luck,Mallet,Gabbert,Newton) will become great NFL players. IMO there are several guys who are projected later (Dalton,Stanzi,Devlin,McElroy) who stand just as much of a chance of becoming quality NFL QBs. Also I would much rather go after one of the top QBs coming out next year (Luck,Barkley,etc..). I know Luck and Newton are outstanding athletes, I am just not sold they are cerebral enough to cut it in the NFL.

Edit: In fairness I should remove Gabbert from my list of not convinced as I really haven't seen him play much.

[mnb123]

All 4 quarterbacks left in the playoffs right now were 1st rounders.

Sanchez was the 2nd quarterback off the board at the 5th pick, Cutler and Big Ben were both the 3rd QB off their board in their respective drafts, both going at 11, and Rodgers was the 2nd QB off the board in his draft at pick #24.

All of them had major red flags, none of them were sure-fire prospects like Luck or Bradford, and none of them were the first QB off the board in their draft.

Just food for thought

[maddogtre]

One thing that I've noticed is that alot of people say they don't think any of the QBs coming out this year are "Franchise QBs" because they have alot of red flags. And that's fine. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. And I actually agree that they all have flaws.

The issue I see here though is that its not like alot of the current Franchise QBs didnt have issues too. I've been a skins fan my entire life, but I've only started really researching draft picks over the past 3-4 years. Maybe i'm the only guy in here who doesn't know what i'm looking at (or admitting it), but I didn't think Flacco and Freeman were going to be this good. When we drafted Carlos at #9, I was more upset about missing Mike Williams than I was about Aaron Rodgers. I'm pretty sure I don't remember seeing a thread about how dumb we were for passing on him. I remember two years ago, I really wanted Sanchez, but I was probably in the minority due to the amount of red flags people would bring up. Granted it was before I really started following the drafts, but I don't remember thinking Cutler or Roethlisburger were great picks either.

Anyways, my point is that the first round QBs aren't always Peyton Manning. Most of them will have some issues. The coaches and scouts just need to take one that they believe has the best chance of working out in their system with their coaching. That is why I think Locker and Gabbert (and even Newton sometimes) would work out for us. They all seem to have qualities that seem to fit Shanny's system. And they would all get Shanny's coaching.

So even though I really want a franchise QB, i'd be fine if we passed on a QB at #10 because I would know that Shanny thought that these flaws/red flags aren't worth it at that spot. However, if he does take one (even Cam) I won't think he'll be a failure just because he had some issues in college.

---------- Post added January-20th-2011 at 01:48 PM ----------

All 4 quarterbacks left in the playoffs right now were 1st rounders.

Sanchez was the 2nd quarterback off the board at the 5th pick, Cutler and Big Ben were both the 3rd QB off their board in their respective drafts, both going at 11, and Rodgers was the 2nd QB off the board in his draft at pick #24.

All of them had major red flags, none of them were sure-fire prospects like Luck or Bradford, and none of them were the first QB off the board in their draft.

Just food for thought

You beat me to it.

[Thinking Skins]

Ok, so here's what I did. I looked at every QB drafted in the NFL since 1993. 1993 stands out for two reasons. First, because its when the Redskins current abysmal mysery begun. Second, because its when the oldest QB (Brunell) was drafted (assuming that Favre has retired). Here's what I came up with. If we look at career rating as the metric for QBs and ignore QBs with less than 400 attempts, then we get the following:

QBs with ratingss above 90 (For the moment, these are the guys I'll say have defined themselves as Franchise QBs).

QB Rating ATT Picked

Aaron Rodgers 98.4 1611 24

Philip Rivers 97.2 2455 4

Tom Brady 95.2 4710 199

Peyton Manning 94.9 7210 1

Ben Roethlisberger 92.5 2800 11

Drew Brees 91.7 4822 32

Matt Schaub 91.5 1987 90

Chad Pennington 90.1 2471 18

Note that two of these 8 were picked outside the first round (counting Brees as a first rounder because he would be today). Also, I have a hard time calling Pennington a franchise QB, but hey, thats the result of such a simple metric.

Here's the more interesting list QBs with a career rating between 80 and 90. I call these the legit starters.

Joe Flacco 87.9 1416 18

Daunte Culpepper 87.8 3199 11

Matt Ryan 86.9 1456 3

Carson Palmer 86.9 3217 1

Trent Green 86 3740 222

David Garrard 85.8 2281 108

Donovan McNabb 85.7 5218 2

Marc Bulger 84.4 3171 168

Jay Cutler 84.3 2207 11

Mark Brunell 84 4637 118

Seneca Wallace 83.9 657 110

Matt Cassel 83.6 1498 230

Rob Johnson 83.6 806 99

Steve McNair 82.8 4544 3

Brian Griese 82.7 2796 91

Jason Campbell 82.6 1966 25

Josh Freeman 82.2 764 17

Matt Hasselbeck 82.2 4279 172

Tim Rattay 81.9 714 212

Sage Rosenfels 81.2 562 109

Eli Manning 80.2 3332 1

Michael Vick 80.2 2115 1

Thats 11 out of 22 QBs who are legit starters

Finally, I wanted to look at the QBs with a career rating between 70 and 80. These are the guys who I'd say are decent backups but who I don't want starting for any lengthy period.

Byron Leftwich 79.7 1552 7

Kyle Orton 79.6 1952 106

Elvis Grbac 79.6 2445 219

Chris Redman 79.2 472 75

Aaron Brooks 78.5 2963 131

Charlie Batch 77.9 1510 60

Drew Bledsoe 77.1 6717 1

Tarvaris Jackson 76.6 603 64

Sam Bradford 76.5 590 1

Vince Young 75.7 1190 3

J.P. Losman 75.6 942 22

Trent Edwards 75.4 927 92

Chad Henne 75.3 953 57

Jim Miller 75.2 1046 178

Tim Couch 75.1 1714 1

David Carr 74.9 2264 1

Patrick Ramsey 74.9 913 32

Jake Plummer 74.6 4350 42

Eric Zeier 74.4 537 84

Gus Frerotte 74.2 3106 197

Kerry Collins 73.9 6163 5

Tyler Thigpen 73.7 496 217

Shaun King 73.4 738 50

Ryan Fitzpatrick 73 1175 250

Tony Banks 72.4 2356 42

Alex Smith 72.1 1514 1

Todd Collins 71.8 701 45

Quincy Carter 71.7 960 53

Josh McCown 71.3 1058 81

Rex Grossman 70.9 1104 22

Kordell Stewart 70.7 2358 60

Kyle Boller 70.4 1491 19

Mark Sanchez 70.2 871 5

Trent Dilfer 70.2 3172 6

Matt Leinart 70 595 10

Thats 20 QBs out of 35, who were non-first rounders. I'll admit that it doesn't really feel right putting Sanchez and Bradford in this group since they are so young, but hased on my definitions, this is where they fall.

Based on these stats though, I don't think you're unwise to pick a QB anywhere in the draft. I mean the odds of them becoming a superstar drop once you get outside of the the first round. But in that same context, the number of franchise QBs picked in the top ten (2) is the same as the number of franchise QBs not picked in the first round. Go figure.

[darrelgreenie]

Based on these stats though, I don't think you're unwise to pick a QB anywhere in the draft. I mean the odds of them becoming a superstar drop once you get outside of the the first round. But in that same context, the number of franchise QBs picked in the top ten (2) is the same as the number of franchise QBs not picked in the first round. Go figure.

If you really want to throw a wrench into the works look at the success rate for QBs that have played under 'guru's vs the rest of the league. (regardless of draft position or previous history QB guru's tend to get production from their QBs)