Why not Cam Newton? An argument, and a comparison with Josh Freeman

[SkinsTillIDie]

I feel like the prevalent opinion on this board is that Cam Newton is certain to bust. The majority of the thoughts I've read here conclude that he will suffer a similar fate to Jamarcus Russell, Vince Young, Jason Campbell, and even Akili Smith. Black quarterbacks who have underwhelmed or downright failed miserably in the NFL.

Quite simply, there are many who see Cam Newton as the "athletic black QB" and immediately compare him to other "athletic black QBs" who have not met expectations. Disregarding his phenomenal play on the field -- and yes, he has nearly completed the greatest season of any player in college history -- for reasons that are not always apt, many see his once-in-a-generation athleticism as a drawback and, ultimately, a source to his certain failure.

Rarely (as gorebd82 pointed out) is Newton compared to other white athletic QB busts like Tim Couch or Alex Smith. It seems that race is playing a major role in the determination that Cam Newton doesn't have what it takes to excel in the NFL. Personally, I'm of the opinion that if he was white and playing in exactly the same manner, he would be more likely universally praised as the elite "freakish" prospect that he should be. (Look no further than persistent Danny Woodhead media coverage).

Simply put, Cam Newton's 2010 season at Auburn is beyond spectacular. It's legendary. No player has ever performed quite like he has.

Let's compare him to a player of a similar mold, a franchise quarterback I think we all would love to have: Josh Freeman. He, like Cam Newton, came out as a 21 year old junior. And, exactly like Cam Newton, measured at 6'6 and 250 lbs.

2006 51.9% YPA - 6.59; 6 TD 15 INT (2 rushing tds) 1780 yards (ran for -21 yards, 54 attempts)

2007 63.3% YPA - 6.72; 8 TD, INT 11 (4 rushing tds) 3353 yards (ran for -40 yards, 53 attempts)

2008 58.6% YPA - 7.71; 20 TD, INT 8 (14 rushing tds) 2945 yards (ran for 404 yards; 107 attempts)

He did this at Kansas State, mind you. His junior year, he drastically increased his yards per attempt and his rushing proficiency, increasing by 10 touchdowns and 400 yards from the previous year. He learned to become a more dangerous and efficient player -- throwing for less (and completing a lower percent of passes) but using his athleticism better to become more of a dual-threat and help lead his team to victory.

That being said: Freeman only had one "stellar" season, as a junior. Now let's look at Cam Newton's junior season:

2010 67.1% YPA - 10.52; 28 TD, 6 INT (20 rushing tds) = 48 total tds. 2589 yards on 246 passing attempts (1409 rushing yards; 242 attempts - 5.8 ypc)

These stats are, quite frankly, incomparable to Freeman's. This is the difference between an "elite" prospect and a "top" prospect.

Many critique Newton's "passing ability" -- no quarterback without "passing ability" can average 10.5 yards per pass attempt. Roethlisberger didn't do it, Matt Ryan didn't do it, Joe Flacco, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, etc. etc. Mike Shanahan has always preached "efficiency" in terms of yards per pass or yards per rush. Newton proves to be the most efficient quarterback out there.

CHARACTER

There are question marks about Newton's character. From purchasing a stolen laptop as a freshman at Flordia (not stealing a laptop, mind you), to his dad's pay-for-play scheme (which Newton has been cleared from any wrongdoing after an NCAA investigation) -- people will irresponsibly dismiss Newton as another "knucklehead" quarterback (paging Michael Wilbon).

I don't know how much you can glean from a press conference, but curious, I selected one random press conference from the middle of the season, from youtube, just to get a vague sense of his personality. It can be

. This is following an October 16th win over Arkansas.

The second, question, a leading one: "Do you guys feel like you're unstoppable on offense?"

"Unstoppable? I wouldn't say that. I saw we have a great, great bunch of coaches and gameplanning is something they live and die by. Coaches don't go home until about three in the morning, coaches will have to vouch for that, but that's hard work and our job is just to execute and do what the coaches tell us to do. We feel like if we do that, there'll only be success down the road."

Question: "Do you feel like you have to carry the team on your back sometimes?"

"Oh no. I think I have the ability to get myself and the team out of trouble but it was very evident tonight that not only me running the ball but the whole running back corps had a excellent game, you see Mike Dyer break a big one, you see Mario [Fannin] running it with a purpose, and all the honor goes to the offensive line. Their names don't get mentioned a lot, you got Lee Ziemba, Bandon Mosely, Byron Isom, Ryan Pugh, and Mike Berry. Those guys come in every single day, don't complain, don't do nothing but just do their job. Ever since they took that challenge early in the season, they really haven't looked back."

When asked about the offense coming back, he immediately praises the coaches again, and quotes an example of his coach's advice. When he's asked about 7 and 8 man fronts, he again gives kudos to the offensive line stepping up to the challenge.

Question: "You're doing Tebow like things carrying the team, what do you think about the comparisons and Heisman Trophy [talk]?"

"The Heisman Trophy, you can throw that out the window. But the Tebow comparison, I'll take that any day. Tebow is an excellent person, excellent leader, excellent individual. So to get compared to someone like that, I'll take that. But we're two different players and two different people. Tim Tebow is Tim Tebow and I'm just Cam Newton."

He never takes credit for the win, instead praising everyone else around him. He is genuinely humble (without ever using the word "humble"). I'd suggest everyone watch the video. These aren't canned answers; they seem purely candid. He's funny, engaging and charismatic. He will smoothly transition to the role as head spokesman for any NFL lockerroom.

EXPECTATIONS, SKEPTICISM

Auburn press, as Newton joined the team, were just as skeptical as many of us are, regarding his ability to translate previous success to a higher level. Here is Andy Bitter, beat writer for the Columbus Ledger-Enquirer back in July:

First things first: You cannot throw for 2,833 yards and 22 touchdowns and run for another 655 yards and 16 scores and not be a talented player. It's simply not possible. I don't care at what level those numbers were achieved, they're impressive and point to a special player. BUT ... let's not confuse the junior college level with the SEC, where players are bigger, faster and stronger, and Newton's natural ability won't be able to take him as far... 'm not saying Newton will not live up to the hype — in fact, given the system he's in, the line he's playing behind and the weapons around him, I think he'll do quite well — but expecting the same kind of numbers he put up in junior college would be a mistake. I'll withhold judgment in this category until I see Newton do it against SEC competition.

Naturally, Cam Newton defied all expectations and skepticism. Who's to say he can't do the same in the NFL?

A major benefit will be having the council of his older brother, Cecil Newton. A center, he made the Jacksonville Jaguars roster after going undrafted, playing his way onto the practice squad before making the Jags' active roster at the end of 2009. He would undoubtedly help Newton transition to the NFL and provide him with advice on what kind of work ethic it takes to thrive in the league.

LEADERSHIP

Another quote from Andy Bitter:

Say this about Newton: he can captivate a crowd. His first meeting with the media was a lesson in positive PR spin. He was funny, witty, engaged. He didn't dodge any questions, even when they pertained to the laptop incident that soured his stay at Florida. And we, the media, usually faced with an endless stream of cliches, ate it up. It was fresh. And I think Newton has been that way with his teammates. One of his main goals last spring was to win over the team and earn respect as a player and a leader. It sounds like he accomplished that. Here's linebacker Craig Stevens' take on Newton from April: "He didn't come in too arrogant or anything. He just came in, got to know everyone. And that's crucial at that position — get to know everyone and just get comfortable with everyone." That's a big first step there.

POTENTIAL

Cam Newton's potential, quite simply, is immeasurable. Mike Shanahan is well documented for getting the absolute best out of his quarterbacks (McNabb notwithstanding -- though he was on pace to set his career mark for passing yards in a season before being benched). In Denver, none of his starting quarterbacks ever played better without him as a head coach -- Elway, Brian Griese, Jake Plummer or Jay Cutler.

If Shanahan can take Cam Newton's generational physical talents (the best we've seen since Michael Vick; less quick but much bigger and stronger), and can teach him the requisite mental game, tailoring him for his "QB-friendly" system, Newton can become one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the NFL and our offense one of the most explosive.

The Eagles offense is so explosive because the quarterback has a ton of time to find open receivers down field -- the line does a top job blocking, but Vick also has the ability to evade pass rushers in the pocket, move outside the pocket, and even run for a first down if need be. This talent directly influences the type of pass rush defensive coordinators call. And naturally, this opens up the running game. Having elite receivers like Desean Jackson is huge, but even Taylor Jacobs could get open if he had 7 seconds to do so.

Developing Cam Newton might take some time -- no one is denying otherwise. We're all sick of losing and we all want to win now; that's why there are many who still want to salvage something in the very inconsistent and below-average Rex Grossman (if you want to argue that Grossman is anything better than "average" ((let alone a "bad" starting quarterback)) I defy you to name 16 starting quarterbacks that Grossman is better than in the NFL).

A CONCLUSION OF SORTS

Jimmy Clausen was said to be the most "NFL ready" quarterback in the draft, and he's played far worse than Bradford, McCoy, and even Jim Skelton in their respective rookie seasons. Even under the tutelage of Charlie Weis. A "pro-style" offense doesn't necessarily translate to NFL success. Just as a "spread" or "option" college offense doesn't necessarily determine failure at the NFL level.

Newton is exactly the type of player who will see his stock dramatically rise in the offseason. He's going to have a legendary combine for a QB. He's going to impress everyone in interviews with NFL personnel. He's going to impress every major media outlet (proving ultimately to be funny, charming, smart and polished in front of the camera), thereby boosting his national press and prestige.

We will have to trade up to get Cam Newton, trade up to the #2 slot most likely, to beat out the competition of Buffalo (#4), Arizona (#7), San Fran (#9) and Minnesota (#11). We're currently #13. Even Cincinnati (#3) is a possibility to take a QB considering that the underachieving Carson Palmer may not be back with his $11.5 million salary next year.

But trading up and taking Cam Newton will make our offense one of the most dangerous and dynamic in the NFL. He's an elite and unique prospect who, under the coaching of Shanahan, can put our offense over the top. And in four years from now, when Eli Manning is 34, Vick is 33 and Tony Romo sits to pee is 34, Newton will be a spry 25 year old with an abundance of NFL experience in our system, with a far better superior supporting cast, making us ripe to lead the division for the next decade to come. Newton can become an amazing talent at quarterback and is capable of the type of "magic" that can beat anyone on any given day (or play). If we have the opportunity to get him, because Andrew Luck almost certainly isn't leaving Carolina's grasp, we must do whatever it takes to get him. Hell, the stats don't lie.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

I don't understand...you wouldn't have started this thread if people were comparing him to Alex Smith or Tim Couch?

I will add that I'm intrigued with Cam Newton...part of me would be very excited about having him in Washington.

[SkinsHokieFan]

Nobody is comparing Newton to Alex Smith or Tim Couch

There are a few issues. 1) His small sample size of passes thrown. 2) The college spread O he is in

He is a physical freak and could be a dominant NFL QB. Its just very tough to project based on one season in his particular offense

[visionary]

I don't understand...you wouldn't have started this thread if people were comparing him to Alex Smith or Tim Couch?

How about Eric Crouch?

:evilg:

[ChillSkinzFan84]

Great post...i was saying similar things about Cam the other day. People arent giving him the credit he deserves. He single handily turned the Auburn program around and has them undefeated in the National Championship game. If he has a great Title game then thats just the icing on the cake. Your right he is being sterotyped because he is a black qb(something all black qbs had to go thru) but he is much further along in the passing game than Vick, and Young and you can even throw Tebow in there. And he has the intagibles of Tebow. He is a true leader. This season reminds me of Charlie Ward's (my favorite college player all time) dominant seasons. Dude is special and I hope we get a chance to draft him.

[SkinsTillIDie]

I don't understand...you wouldn't have started this thread if people were comparing him to Alex Smith or Tim Couch?

I will add that I'm intrigued with Cam Newton...part of me would be very excited about having him in Washington.

No, not at all. I just see these characterizations as emblematic of a general ignorance. Or, dare I say it, a sort of racism.

[SkinsHokieFan]

No, not at all. I just see these characterizations as emblematic of a general ignorance. Or, dare I say it, a sort of racism.

Really? How about Michael Vick when he was drafted?

Oh thats right, Vick had 2 full seasons of dominant play at Virginia Tech in a more pro style offense that VT ran. A larger sample size to better project

[Dan T.]

Good post. The comparison to Tebow is interesting, in that he seems to have those indefinable intangibles - leadership, charisma, rising to pressure situations. I wonder if, like Tebow, he'll drop in the draft. (Though certainly not as far as Tebow dropped.)

Also, I didn't realize he's that big... is he really 6'6", 250? With his mobility, that kind of size is awesome.

[Bat~man]

I'm sorry, but if you're thinking we should trade up for the guy... that's just mental. That's how the Redskins are tho so it wouldn't surprise me. The type up is nice but it is what it is.

If McNabb isn't accurate enough, no way will Newton be. The hype around Newton will be as strong as it was for Vince Young when they won the championship. and I think Newtons Career will be a lot like VYs, sure VY has some wins.. but we don't have near the defense/running game or intangibles that the Titans had with Vince... who isn't doing so hot now. And all the Shanny molding QB talk is a good point, but his QBs are passing QBs... Newton is a college spread QB, way to iffy... besides, I would think little Kyle is working more with the QB than his Dad is right now... unfortunately.

I'm not totally against Newton.. as a project later in the rounds (which won't happen) but trading up to get the guy would be a mind numbing move and we would be laughed at for years over it.

[SkinsHokieFan]

Good post. The comparison to Tebow is interesting, in that he seems to have those indefinable intangibles - leadership, charisma, rising to pressure situations. I wonder if, like Tebow, he'll drop in the draft. (Though certainly not as far as Tebow dropped.)

Also, I didn't realize he's that big... is he really 6'6", 250? With his mobility, that kind of size is awesome.

He is a physical monster. Cam is just such a tough guy to project in the NFL. He will be a top 10 pick for certain, and would be number 1 overall if he had one more similar season.

[Bat~man]

Really? How about Michael Vick when he was drafted?

Oh thats right, Vick had 2 full seasons of dominant play at Virginia Tech in a more pro style offense that VT ran. A larger sample size to better project

Agree, Vick was the team when he was there.. it was pretty much Vick vs the Seminoles in the championship game.

[SkinsTillIDie]

Really? How about Michael Vick when he was drafted?

The Vick example is the most apt -- an athletic freak who often relied on his running ability to win games. You're right, and I will edit the thread.

That being said, Vick had an abundance of character issues and personality flaws that would obviously hold him back from fulfilling his potential. Only a freaking prison term could turn him around. Cam Newton doesn't possesses these traits (I would argue), and thus, the comparison can be made but I see as not entirely worthwhile.

Just as Cam Newton said, "Tim Tebow is Tim Tebow, I'm just Cam Newton," I would say Mike Vick is Mike Vick and Cam Newton is Cam Newton. Just because Vick didn't live up to his potential in Atlanta doesn't mean that Newton can't or won't. There are two different players and people. But even with subpar coaching (Jim Mora Jr.!), Vick took Atlanta to the NFC Championship game. Hell, I'd take that.

[ChillSkinzFan84]

Good post. The comparison to Tebow is interesting, in that he seems to have those indefinable intangibles - leadership, charisma, rising to pressure situations. I wonder if, like Tebow, he'll drop in the draft. (Though certainly not as far as Tebow dropped.)

Also, I didn't realize he's that big... is he really 6'6", 250? With his mobility, that kind of size is awesome.

Yea he is like the LeBron James of football at qb. He is a physical freak, very accurate and has great touch. I wonder how many people have really seen him play.

[Bat~man]

The Vick example is the most apt -- an athletic freak who often relied on his running ability to win games. You're right, and I will edit the thread.

That being said, Vick had an abundance of character issues and personality flaws that would obviously hold him back from fulfilling his potential. Only a freaking prison term could turn him around. Cam Newton doesn't possesses these traits (I would argue), and thus, the comparison can be made but I see as not entirely worthwhile.

Just as Cam Newton said, "Tim Tebow is Tim Tebow, I'm just Cam Newton," I would say Mike Vick is Mike Vick and Cam Newton is Cam Newton. Just because Vick didn't live up to his potential in Atlanta doesn't mean that Newton can't or won't. There are two different players and people. But even with subpar coaching (Jim Mora Jr.!), Vick took Atlanta to the NFC Championship game. Hell, I'd take that.

Newton doesn't possess character flaws? He is surrounded by stories of cheating in school, stolen computers and trying to get a team to pay him to play.. which the NCAA gave a legendary quick reversal of the suspension Auburn gave him (which has motives of its own obviously) Believe whatever you want, but there's a lot of smoke around him for you to say there is no fire.

[ChillSkinzFan84]

Agree, Vick was the team when he was there.. it was pretty much Vick vs the Seminoles in the championship game.

I remember that game as im a huge FSU fan Peter Warrick won the game for us. But Cam is the whole team just like Vick was. Do you know whats Auburns record was last year? Theres a reason he got paid

[SkinsHokieFan]

The Vick example is the most apt -- an athletic freak who often relied on his running ability to win games. You're right, and I will edit the thread.

That being said, Vick had an abundance of character issues and personality flaws that would obviously hold him back from fulfilling his potential. Only a freaking prison term could turn him around. Cam Newton doesn't possesses these traits (I would argue), and thus, the comparison can be made but I see as not entirely worthwhile.

Just as Cam Newton said, "Tim Tebow is Tim Tebow, I'm just Cam Newton," I would say Mike Vick is Mike Vick and Cam Newton is Cam Newton. Just because Vick didn't live up to his potential in Atlanta doesn't mean that Newton can't or won't. There are two different players and people. But even with subpar coaching (Jim Mora Jr.!), Vick took Atlanta to the NFC Championship game. Hell, I'd take that.

I love Vick

My point is refuting yours, there wasn't any racism involved with Vick, he went number 1 overall. I saw live every game he played in Lane stadium, he was a man amongst boys

Your claims of racism and ignorance are unfounded in the case of Cam

[SkinsTillIDie]

I'm sorry, but if you're thinking we should trade up for the guy... that's just mental. That's how the Redskins are tho so it wouldn't surprise me. The type up is nice but it is what it is.

If McNabb isn't accurate enough, no way will Newton be.

McNabb, his junior season, completed 54.7% of his passes. His senior season, 62.5%. Cam Newton completed 67.1%. McNabb's inaccuracy stemmed much from his terrible footwork and tendency to throw off balance. Kyle Shanahan couldn't rectify this for us.

The hype around Newton will be as strong as it was for Vince Young when they won the championship. and I think Newtons Career will be a lot like VYs, sure VY has some wins.. but we don't have near the defense/running game or intangibles that the Titans had with Vince... who isn't doing so hot now. And all the Shanny molding QB talk is a good point, but his QBs are passing QBs... Newton is a college spread QB, way to iffy... besides, I would think little Kyle is working more with the QB than his Dad is right now... unfortunately.

Vince Young has always had significant emotional (and possibly intellectual) deficiencies. Cam Newton doesn't appear to possess these.

Who's to say in three years what our defense will look like? Or our running game? Hell, in just one season, with a lot of players Shanahan found on the scrapheap, he's engineered one of our best rushing attacks in years.

Elway in his day, I believe, was considered more of a "rushing QB." So was Jake Plummer.

[SkinsHokieFan]

I remember that game as im a huge FSU fan Peter Warrick won the game for us. But Cam is the whole team just like Vick was. Do you know whats Auburns record was last year? Theres a reason he got paid

Virginia Tech had a great defense in 1999 with Vick. He was the X factor that put the team over the top, similar to Cam (Auburn also has a great D)

The only reason that Cam isn't the number 1 prospect is a) his small sample size (1 year) and 2) the offense he plays in

Luck plays in a pro style attack and has 2 years of great play, which is why it is much easier to project him to be a franchise QB in the NFL. Cam has the physical ability for sure, will he have the ability to run and execute an NFL offense, read coverages and play a pro style game? Thats what holds his draft position back

Not racism

[ChillSkinzFan84]

Newton doesn't possess character flaws? He is surrounded by stories of cheating in school, stolen computers and trying to get a team to pay him to play.. which the NCAA gave a legendary quick reversal of the suspension Auburn gave him (which has motives of its own obviously) Believe whatever you want, but there's a lot of smoke around him for you to say there is no fire.

Come on man what great college player doesnt get paid and get benefits? Trust me I know some average players that were doing worse in College and High school at DeMatha. Thats just part of the business of College football and basketball. MSU just exposed him because he is THAT good and they were jealous that they didng get him.

[Bat~man]

I remember that game as im a huge FSU fan Peter Warrick won the game for us. But Cam is the whole team just like Vick was. Do you know whats Auburns record was last year? Theres a reason he got paid

Auburn was 8-5... they are obviously much better this year... and I'm not knocking Newton as a college player by any means. But it's not liek they were 2-11 last year.

Also, wasn't last year the first with the new coach?

[SkinsTillIDie]

I love Vick

My point is refuting yours, there wasn't any racism involved with Vick, he went number 1 overall. I saw live every game he played in Lane stadium, he was a man amongst boys

Your claims of racism and ignorance are unfounded in the case of Cam

Alright then, how does Cam Newton compare to JaMarcus Russell or Akili Smith? Other than being a black quarterback picked high in the draft. I'm not saying he will fall in the draft because of racism, I'm saying that there are many opinions shaped by fans that use his race as a measuring stick

[Bat~man]

Come on man what great college player doesnt get paid and get benefits? Trust me I know some average players that were doing worse in College and High school at DeMatha. Thats just part of the business of College football and basketball. MSU just exposed him because he is THAT good and they were jealous that they didng get him.

Yea, that's an entirely different debate. A lot of players get a lot fo things... I wouldn't say they put their "talents" up for bidding tho.. Besides that wasn't the point, the point was he has character flaws, regardless if "everybody does it"

[SkinsTillIDie]

Some more food for thought:

- He's the first QB in SEC history to throw for 2,000 yards and run for 1,000.

- In the Iron Bowl versus Alabama, down 24-0, he lead Auburn to a 28-27 comeback win.

- He lead Auburn with a demolition of South Carolina in the SEC Championship game with 6 TDs in a 56-17 win.

- Down the stretch in the last 5 games of the season, he threw 15 touchdowns to only 1 interception.

- He led the whole SEC in rushing.

- He is the only player in the nation to run for 170 yards 5 different times.

If there's anyone that can coach him to be an elite quarterback, it's Mike Shanahan. And if there's any offensive system that he's best suited to thrive in, it's our offense.

Is there anyone who could run the play-action bootleg better than Newton? He single-handedly dictates how the weakside defends every run. And his unique physical gifts make him most apt to connect on the home-run plays that Kyle Shanahan's passing offense thrives (and relies) on.

He'll pick up far more 3rd downs (and 3rd and longs) with his running ability. He completely changes our teams could defend us. He makes everyone else better just by being the physical threat he is, sort of like Vick in Atlanta, before he ever learned how to actually play quarterback and where his lazy work habits and poor leadership held himself, and the team, back.

[Bat~man]

Alright then, how does Cam Newton compare to JaMarcus Russell or Akili Smith? Other than being a black quarterback picked high in the draft. I'm not saying he will fall in the draft because of racism, I'm saying that there are many opinions shaped by fans that use his race as a measuring stick

I think it's lame and almost ignorant to use race at this day and age for a debate like this. Come on man, you definitely have proven you can give a better debate using something other than race.

[SkinsHokieFan]

Alright then, how does Cam Newton compare to JaMarcus Russell or Akili Smith? Other than being a black quarterback picked high in the draft. I'm not saying he will fall in the draft because of racism, I'm saying that there are many opinions shaped by fans that use his race as a measuring stick

And I 100 percent disagree with the notion that people are underrating him due to race. The reason he isn't a shoo in for the top spot is again because of the 1 year or production and the system he plays in.

Saying that people aren't sold on Cam because of race is quite frankly ignorant