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QB Comparisons Statistics: HOF worthy or not?


GhostofSparta

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UPDATE: Had to edit a few things. They are the following: QB H has 3 MVPs, not 1; QB F had 4574 attempts, not 5474; QB G has a 59.2 Completion %, not 52.9; and finally accurate QB ratings can be found at the end of post #33. Sorry if these typos and calculation errors skewed anybody's rankings, feel free to update if so.

So the thread about whether or not McNabb is (or will be) a Hall of Fame caliber QB caught my interest, and the debate seemed to come down to the fact that McNabb will have a hard time getting in with no rings, and his stats will have to be better than most to get in. Some argued Marino didn't need the ring because he had the numbers, which McNabb won't. So argued that he's caught in a numbers game and will miss out for that reason, despite large number of QBs who started in the late 70s/early 80s all getting the nod.

Inspired by KDawg's D-Coordinators thread, I thought I'd try a little experiment of my own. Sure, the format of this thread is basically internet plagarism, but isn't imitation the sincerest form of flattery? What follows is a list of stats for 11 QBs. Some are in the HOF, some are not, but all will be judged only by stats. I will not list names, Super Bowl appearances/records, or whether the player is in the HOF, playing currently, or retired. The only thing I will say is that all of these stats are from the first 11 years of each player's career (McNabb is on his 12th, which is incomplete). Hopefully the format comes out clear:

Player/ Comp. / Att. / Comp% / Yards / Yds per Att / TD / INT / QB Rat / R Yds/ R TDs

A: / 2874 / 4779 / 60.1 / 35467 / 7.42 / 237 / 175 / 84.4 / 1049 / 7

-4 Pro Bowls

B: / 3311 / 5441 / 60.9 / 38627 / 7.10 / 287 / 172 / 79.2 / 1559 / 12

-6 Pro Bowls, 3 MVPs

C: / 1845 / 3071 / 60.1 / 23069 / 7.51 / 160 / 79 / 94.9 / 3219 / 30

-3 Pro Bowls, 2 MVPs

D: / 2723 / 4890 / 55.9 / 34296 / 7.00 / 183 / 167 / 74.7 / 2435 / 22

-5 Pro Bowls, 1 MVP

E: / 2528 / 4380 / 59.0 / 33854 / 7.73 / 201 / 185 / 81.2 / 480 / 11

-5 Pro Bowls

F: / 2908 / 4574 / 63.6 / 33547 / 7.30 / 248 / 103 / 94.3 / 591 / 7

-5 Pro Bowls, 1 MVP

G: / 3219 / 5434 / 59.2 / 40720 / 7.49 / 298 / 168 / 86.4 / 105 / 7

-9 Pro Bowls, 1 MVP

H: / 3839 / 5960 / 64.4 / 45628 / 7.66 / 333 / 165 / 95.2 / 717 / 17

-9 Pro Bowls, 3 MVPs

I: / 2801 / 4746 / 59.0 / 32873 / 6.93 / 216 / 100 / 85.7 / 3249 / 28

-6 Pro Bowls

J: / 2593 / 4059 / 63.9 / 31054 / 7.65 / 216 / 107 / 92.5 / 1405 / 19

-6 Pro Bowls, 1 MVP

K: / 3003 / 4947 / 60.7 / 37949 / 7.63 / 214 / 185 / 80.2 / 1496 / 21

-7 Pro Bowls

Like KDawg (again), I will reveal the answer to who each is in a couple of days, hopefully after some input. These are again individual stats, as Super Bowl wins should not be the ultimate decider of who gets into the HOF, or else Trent Dilfer would be in and Marino out. So the awards listed are (more or less) an individual accomplishment: Pro Bowls and MVPs. So if you would like to play along, give me a list or some type of ranking system for each player, and what your method was. Hopefully we can have a little fun with this.

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So the thread about whether or not McNabb is (or will be) a Hall of Fame caliber QB caught my interest, and the debate seemed to come down to the fact that McNabb will have a hard time getting in with no rings, and his stats will have to be better than most to get in. Some argued Marino didn't need the ring because he had the numbers, which McNabb won't. So argued that he's caught in a numbers game and will miss out for that reason, despite large number of QBs who started in the late 70s/early 80s all getting the nod.

Inspired by KDawg's D-Coordinators thread, I thought I'd try a little experiment of my own. Sure, the format of this thread is basically internet plagarism, but isn't imitation the sincerest form of flattery? What follows is a list of stats for 11 QBs. Some are in the HOF, some are not, but all will be judged only by stats. I will not list names, Super Bowl appearances/records, or whether the player is in the HOF, playing currently, or retired. The only thing I will say is that all of these stats are from the first 11 years of each player's career (McNabb is on his 12th, which is incomplete). Hopefully the format comes out clear:

Player/ Comp. / Att. / Comp% / Yards / Yds per Att / TD / INT / QB Rat / R Yds/ R TDs

A: / 2874 / 4779 / 60.1 / 35467 / 7.42 / 237 / 175 / 84.4 / 1049 / 7

-4 Pro Bowls

B: / 3311 / 5441 / 60.9 / 38627 / 7.10 / 287 / 172 / 79.2 / 1559 / 12

-6 Pro Bowls, 3 MVPs

C: / 1845 / 3071 / 60.1 / 23069 / 7.51 / 160 / 79 / 94.9 / 3219 / 30

-3 Pro Bowls, 2 MVPs

D: / 2723 / 4890 / 55.9 / 34296 / 7.00 / 183 / 167 / 74.7 / 2435 / 22

-5 Pro Bowls, 1 MVP

E: / 2528 / 4380 / 59.0 / 33854 / 7.73 / 201 / 185 / 81.2 / 480 / 11

-5 Pro Bowls

F: / 2908 / 5474 / 63.6 / 33547 / 7.30 / 248 / 103 / 94.3 / 591 / 7

-5 Pro Bowls, 1 MVP

G: / 3219 / 5434 / 52.9 / 40720 / 7.49 / 298 / 168 / 86.4 / 105 / 7

-9 Pro Bowls, 1 MVP

H: / 3839 / 5960 / 64.4 / 45628 / 7.66 / 333 / 165 / 95.2 / 717 / 17

-9 Pro Bowls, 1 MVP

I: / 2801 / 4746 / 59.0 / 32873 / 6.93 / 216 / 100 / 85.7 / 3249 / 28

-6 Pro Bowls

J: / 2593 / 4059 / 63.9 / 31054 / 7.65 / 216 / 107 / 92.5 / 1405 / 19

-6 Pro Bowls, 1 MVP

K: / 3003 / 4947 / 60.7 / 37949 / 7.63 / 214 / 185 / 80.2 / 1496 / 21

-7 Pro Bowls

Like KDawg (again), I will reveal the answer to who each is in a couple of days, hopefully after some input. These are again individual stats, as Super Bowl wins should not be the ultimate decider of who gets into the HOF, or else Trent Dilfer would be in and Marino out. So the awards listed are (more or less) an individual accomplishment: Pro Bowls and MVPs. So if you would like to play along, give me a list or some type of ranking system for each player, and what your method was. Hopefully we can have a little fun with this.

can't we just put em all in? is space limited? :)

i'm not a stats guy. unless someone is overwhelmingly good in the regular season (a la Manning, Marino) I don't put them in the hall based on numbers. i want to see wins in the playoffs, stats in the playoffs and rings. i'm a supporter of this experiment and interested to see where it goes, but i'm not sure i'd feel right putting a list together based simply on statistics. not my idea of HOF merit.

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can't we just put em all in? is space limited? :)

i'm not a stats guy. unless someone is overwhelmingly good in the regular season (a la Manning, Marino) I don't put them in the hall based on numbers. i want to see wins in the playoffs, stats in the playoffs and rings. i'm a supporter of this experiment and interested to see where it goes, but i'm not sure i'd feel right putting a list together based simply on statistics. not my idea of HOF merit.

I understand where you're coming from, but this is for those arguing in favor of a stats based HOF candidacy. Marino never won a SB, but is considered (at the moment anyway) a top 5 QB of all time. Art Monk won 3 SBs, but really only got in recently because they voters wanted to put Chris Carter in the HOF. Carter never won a SB, but he's in the media and they couldn't be THAT obviously biased (even if everybody saw through it). Marino is 0 for 1 in the big game, as is McNabb. Manning and Favre are both 1 for 2. Brady is 3 for 4 but also has impressive statistics. Trent Dilfer and Steve Young have both been to and won exactly 1 Super Bowl, much like Rypien and Williams for the Redskins. So to some extent, I can understand that McNabb being ringless shouldn't automatically eliminate him, so I decided to show how some current and future HOF QBs stack up statistically, including non-Super Bowl awards like Pro Bowl appearances (you know, the main knock against Fletcher by many).

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First thing I'm looking for is TD:Int ratio. Then I look towards yards per attempt. Completion percentage plays a role with me as well.

Top Tier:

H - Statistically looks far and beyond to be the best QB. Has the best rating, yards, touchdowns

F- Extremely high completion percentage, very good touchdown to interception ratio.

J - Intriguing. 2:1 TD:Int ratio. Good completion percentage, good rating... low yardage

The Good Stats but I Question Them So They're Second Tier Group:

G - Erm. Yup.

C - His stats seem extremely low. Which means in his first 11 years I'm guessing he didn't play a lot until the end. This guy could move up or down based on a bigger sample size. Rush yards are huge for him. High passer rating despite being a good rusher. He'd probably make the higher group before the lower group... But I'm not sold on his passing numbers. Combined with the rushing numbers he looks pretty good.

B - All of the stats seem really good, except that 7.1 yards per attempt stat. That's something that I can live with. I'm assuming this guy won quite a bit based on these numbers.

The third tier:

I - I really like his touchdown to interception ratio. Decent stats otherwise. 6.93 per attempt is low. Not a bad QB, but I wouldn't say anyone in this group is HOF worthy. Though, I'm sure some of them are in :ols:

A - Solid QB. Not sure I could put him any higher on the list due to his TD:INT ratio.

Lower Tier:

K - Low TD:INT ratio.

E - Probably pretty interchangeable with K.

D- Low yards per attempt, low TD:Int ratio, low completion percentage. Not a fan of these numbers. By far the worst on the list in my eyes.

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KDawg, I appreciate the input. Just 1 think I'd like to point out, if I may. It's not yards per completion, it's yards per attempt. Other than that I like your analysis, and yes I think you will be surprised by who some of these stats belong to.

Doesn't make a difference if its per completion or attempt. Still means close to the same in the big picture :)

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Doesn't make a difference if its per completion or attempt. Still means close to the same in the big picture :)

Yeah they'll get the same yards either way, but from everything I saw while doing this YPA was a more common stat than YPC. Sure it's semantics, but couting on 7 yards everytime the ball is thrown vs 7 yards everything a completion is made makes a difference in the game.

It's a shame that people don't like doing more of this stuff...

Man, now I know how you felt with the Defensive coaches thread. It's brutal to put in this much effort and have practically nobody play along. :ols:

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Yeah they'll get the same yards either way, but from everything I saw while doing this YPA was a more common stat than YPC. Sure it's semantics, but couting on 7 yards everytime the ball is thrown vs 7 yards everything a completion is made makes a difference in the game.

Well, yeah, I guess. But if you're doing the stats by actual completion, all of the numbers would be a bit higher. A zero by an incomplete pass kills an average :ols:

Man, now I know how you felt with the Defensive coaches thread. It's brutal to put in this much effort and have practically nobody play along. :ols:

Yeah. But at the same time... If one person enjoys it than it was worth it.

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Alright, these are my initial thoughts. Let me preface this by saying that, as is well documented, I do believe that awards matter. I know the intention is to compare stats only, but I don't think stats alone tell the story and thus I have placed a strong emphasis on the MVPs (probowls not as much)

You listed 11 QBs. I have 6 in the hall and 5 almosts.

My HOFers were B,C,F,G,H,and J.

I left out A,D,E,I and K.

C had much lower stats than my other HOFers, but his YPA were very high. This told me that he probably sat on the bench for 2-3 years, but when he did play he played well enough to make up for lost time. The fact that his passer rating was so high, combined with his two MVPs places him in.

B threw a fair share of interceptions, but is third on the list in yards and touchdowns. His passer rating is rather low, but he also has 3 MVPs to his credit.

F was middle of the pack in yards and touchdowns. In fact, he was slightly worse than D and E, whom I left off. However, I put F in because of the small number of Interceptions and the crazy high passer rating. F also has an MVP to his credit. E didn't have the MVP, and D had it but it went along with a terrible passer rating.

G and H are monsters. They beasted in yards, were amongst the top in YPA, are 1 and 2 in touchdowns, and H in particular has a crazy high passer rating. They both also have an MVP award, and are both no brainer first ballots.

I,J, and K are interesting. They have similar yardage, nearly identical touchdowns. Right off the bat I threw out I. He has a terrible YPA in comparison and only a middle of the pack passer rating. With no defining MVP, he was out. K has the highest yardage, but a very high interception rate to go with it and the fewest TDs of the three, 2nd fewest on the list. Without an MVP, he too is left off the list. J gets in because of three things. THe TDs are similar to the other two, but the interceptions are lower than Ks and the YPA much higher than Is. This adds enough firepower to his MVP to put him in the hall.

Looking at my list, I let in all but one of the MVPs and left out all of the non MVPs. I know this sounds lame, but I think it matters. An MVP proves that, at least for one season, they were the best ****ing player in the league, bar none. Multiple MVPs seals the deal for sure. I know, I failed at th exercise. I just don't care to compare QBs using only Stats. The QB position, more than any other, is about more than the tangibles. Peyton Manning could have retired 5 years ago and he'd still be a HOFers because of the way he played the game. Because of the intangibles. Because of the way he CHANGED what a QB does and how a QB can attack a defense. It's not about his stats (despite him having them.) It's about the impact on the game.

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I think G's had a fatal flaw and that was completion percentage. That said, I'm not sure you can entirely dismiss the guy due to that alone, but I'm not sure he's a no brainer.

Our lists are pretty similar, actually. You used their awards, I didnt and we still arrived at close to the same place. My first two groups are probably HoF worthy. We differed on just one.

I seriously copied the list into word and erased all of the individual awards and did this exercise.

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I'll say this, it was really weird to see how some of these stats stack up. You look at QB C, and those are indeed his stats from his first 11 seasons in the NFL, but they pale in comparison to almost everybody else on the list. And a guy like Manning, who is in his 13th year, could win another 2-3 MVPs still in his career, as well as another SB, and those stats wouldn't show up in this particular comparison. I mean, look at Favre over the last 3 years and see how night and day each season was compared to the last: in NY he faltered down the stretch, last year in Minny he got them within an INT from the SB, then this year he's imploded. Some guys get a 2nd wind as they hit their 30's, and some guys just hit a wall. For every Shaun Alexander who falls of the face of the earth, you have a Thomas Jones who just keeps on humming along well beyond when most people think he should be able to do so.

I never figured a couple of these mystery candidates had stats as good or as bad as they look on the list.

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That is incorrect. Carter's numbers are far superior and he also had some of the best hands ever.

Carter: 1101 rec 13899 yards 130 TD

Monk: 940 rec 12721 yards 68 TD

Maybe he was thinking of James Lofton?

Lofton: 764 rec 14,004 yards 75 TD

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Bottom line like in the other thread you either better have bad ass numbers or win some Superbowls........Superbowls matter folks.....winning matters. George Allen never coached a losing team....ever but when you think about Redskins coaches you automatically think Gibbs, why??? Because he won 3 freaking SUPERBOWLS!!!!!!!!!! Why do you think we brought Shanny in here....it wasnt the losing seasons it was his Back to back Superbowl wins. Why do you think people want Bill Cowher or John Gruden to coach there teams....THE WON THE SUPERBOWL.

Like I said in the other thread....Marino would trade his HOF coat for just one Superbowl ring.....Elway even said had he retired not winning one he would have never gotten over it. Dree Brees will go down as the best Qb in Saints history even if someone comes and puts up better numbers than him because he won them there first Superbowl....Al Davis has it right folks...."Just Win Baby"

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Player/ Comp. / Att. / Comp% / Yards / Yds per Att / TD / INT / QB Rat / R Yds/ R TDs

A: / 2874 / 4779 / 60.1 / 35467 / 7.42 / 237 / 175 / 84.4 / 1049 / 7

-4 Pro Bowls

B: / 3311 / 5441 / 60.9 / 38627 / 7.10 / 287 / 172 / 79.2 / 1559 / 12

-6 Pro Bowls, 3 MVPs

C: / 1845 / 3071 / 60.1 / 23069 / 7.51 / 160 / 79 / 94.9 / 3219 / 30

-3 Pro Bowls, 2 MVPs

D: / 2723 / 4890 / 55.9 / 34296 / 7.00 / 183 / 167 / 74.7 / 2435 / 22

-5 Pro Bowls, 1 MVP

E: / 2528 / 4380 / 59.0 / 33854 / 7.73 / 201 / 185 / 81.2 / 480 / 11

-5 Pro Bowls

F: / 2908 / 5474 / 63.6 / 33547 / 7.30 / 248 / 103 / 94.3 / 591 / 7

-5 Pro Bowls, 1 MVP

G: / 3219 / 5434 / 52.9 / 40720 / 7.49 / 298 / 168 / 86.4 / 105 / 7

-9 Pro Bowls, 1 MVP

H: / 3839 / 5960 / 64.4 / 45628 / 7.66 / 333 / 165 / 95.2 / 717 / 17

-9 Pro Bowls, 1 MVP

I: / 2801 / 4746 / 59.0 / 32873 / 6.93 / 216 / 100 / 85.7 / 3249 / 28

-6 Pro Bowls

J: / 2593 / 4059 / 63.9 / 31054 / 7.65 / 216 / 107 / 92.5 / 1405 / 19

-6 Pro Bowls, 1 MVP

K: / 3003 / 4947 / 60.7 / 37949 / 7.63 / 214 / 185 / 80.2 / 1496 / 21

-7 Pro Bowls

Now, obviously comparing qb's of different eras is impossible to do statistically, so I hope most of these qb's are recent.

My HoFers:

B: MVP's are a huge bonus, indication of winning

E: This guy gets the ball down the field despite turnovers and lack of accuracy

F: Great accuracy, td-int

H: easy, insane stats

G: great ypa, consistency as witnessed by the pro bowls and yardage totals

J: good stats, low turnovers, great rushing totals

K: If E makes this list, K has to also.

Non HoF

A: Stats seem very average for this list, nothing stands out

C: Inconsistincy. 3 great seasons but nearly 2000 throws fewer than others

D: Good rushing stats but very high turnovers and low ypa and passing tds.

I: Fantastic rushing totals and great td-int, but lowest ypa

I value ypa a lot in qb's and think it is a better stat than accuracy. td-int is important but I can forgive ints if the ypa is high because it means the qb is asked to throw down the field more and that is more apt to turnovers. If I had to swap two to the non HoF list it would be E and K, they are very similar and are turnover machines compared to others on the list.

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McNabb is a borderline hall of famer.

Like it or not he is 1-4 in NFC title game appearances and 0-1 in the Super Bowl. And a number of these games were close enough where his performance could have been the difference.

Marino was 1-2 in the AFCCG and 0-1 in the SB. He had a postseason career record of 8-10. But for 20 years he was considered the best QB of all time. That's why I'm doing this with stats, to see how HOF and potential HOF QBs stack up stats-wise. Manning has choked away countless playoff games, mostly to the Pats, but he would still be a HOF QB without his ring because of his stats. That's why I did this comarison, to show how some of these guys compare stats-wise, before factoring in the rings.

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McNabb is not nearly as efficient a quarterback in terms of completion percentage as a guy like Marino. I don't think Marino was the best qb of his generation as Montana was at the head of that class.

But McNabb had a much better team around him (including a top defense) while Marino's Miami teams were borderline for much of his time there.

The fact the Eagles lost 3 straight NFC title games AT HOME and McNabb couldn't rally them even one time I think reflects poorly on his ability to be clutch.

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I think G's had a fatal flaw and that was completion percentage. That said, I'm not sure you can entirely dismiss the guy due to that alone, but I'm not sure he's a no brainer.

Our lists are pretty similar, actually. You used their awards, I didnt and we still arrived at close to the same place. My first two groups are probably HoF worthy. We differed on just one.

I seriously copied the list into word and erased all of the individual awards and did this exercise.

That's funny. I wrote them all out on paper and threw out Comp, Att, running stats, and pro bowls. It's weird we used opposite approaches and came to nearly identical conclusions.

---------- Post added December-2nd-2010 at 09:56 PM ----------

Another thought just occurred to me. One of the slight problems with this approach is that another HUGE factor that goes into HOF voting is who is already in. If you hold up the 30 best QBs of all time and vote on them now it will be much different than if you vote them in progressively over the years. A lot of times guys get in because their stats are comparable to guys that are already in; but if they were all out and being voted in all at once (as is the case in this scenario) that guy he is being compared to might also be left out.

I'm not sure if that post makes sense. I think its part of the era thing. People talk about Lynn Swan and how he shouldn't be in. At the time, what he did seemed awesome. Now that we;ve seen Holt, Bruce, Moss, Owens, Harrisson, etc. Swan doesn't seem too impressive. Would people vote Swann in now if we took all WRs out and voted on them all evenly?

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I'm going through and making a spreadsheet of the numbers, so that I can get some more advanced stats. Although you listed the completion percentage, I'm calculating it on my own in the spreadsheet. So far, I noticed you made a mistake with player F. You have him with a 63.6% completion percentage, however 2908 (comp) divided by 5474 (att) = 53.12. Which stat is messed up, the completion percentage or the completions and attempts?

---------- Post added December-2nd-2010 at 11:57 PM ----------

I've disqualified F for now, because I don't know what his true numbers look like. (EDIT: Found out you meant to put 4574 attempts. Knowing this, I've now added him to my list)

I throw out MVPs and Pro Bowls because that's what other people think, and people, more than not, have alterior motives for voting (popularity, perception, winning team, etc.). QB Rating means nothing to me, seeing as I'm seemingly forming my own QB Rating based on the information I see as most important. The areas I find most important are TDs per attempt and INTs per attempt, but completion percentages and rushing statistics also play a fairly big part. Yards Per Completion would normally play a role, but none of the players have low numbers, and the players with significantly high numbers in the category tended to have crappy numbers everywhere else.

Hall of Famers

F: Doesn't have the rushing stats like player I, but his Attempts per Touchdown stat is off the charts. An INT every 44.41 passes and a TD every 18.44 attempts.

I: The best passer of the entire bunch and arguably the best rusher on the list. Only throws an interception every 47.46 attempts, while throwing a TD every 21.97 attempts. As I said before, rushing statistics are even better than his passing numbers.

C: Either him or player I is the best rusher, no questions asked. Throws an INT every 38.87 passes, while throwing a touchdown every 19.19 passes.

J: Has very similar passing number to player C, but has only half the rushing stats. Has a high completion percentage. 37.93 attempts per interception / 18.79 attempts per touchdown

H: High completion percentage and good numbers all around. Loses out to J mostly due to rushing yardage. 36.12 attempts per interception / 17.9 attempts per touchdown

Questionable HOF Status

B: Isn't great in area, but is solid throughout. 31.63 attempts per interception. 18.96 attempts per touchdown.

G: Slightly better passer than B, but his rushing TD's are cut in half and his rushing yards are RIDICULOUSLY low. I don't understand how he managed only 105 yards rushing in his entire career.

Not Hall of Famers

K: Great rushing numbers, but this begins the big drop-off in passing efficiency. INT every 26.74 passes. TD every 23.12 passes.

A: The best passer of the bottom 4, but his rushing numbers are very mundane. INT every 27.31 passes. TD every 20.16 passes.

D: A great runner, but his completion percentage is awful, and his other passing numbers nothing to brag about. INT every 29.28 passes. TD every 26.72 passes

E: Bad completion percentage and only passable rushing numbers. Other than a high TD rate, his numbers are very bad. INT every 23.68 passes. TD every 21.79 passes.

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For me, H was a hands down winner....it wasn't even close.

What stands out to me is: Compl Pct, QB Rating, Total Yards, TD's.

The total yards could really work against a slow-starter, but I'm an ES'er and I want results NOW! :)

1. H Best Compl Pct, Highest Rating, Most Yards, Most TD's

2. F

3. J

4. C

5. A

6. B

7. G

8. I

9. E

10. D

11. K

I'm pretty sure I know who C is, without looking up stats. If I'm correct, then in reality, I would rtae him a whole lot higher in the list.

But I am prepared to take my medicine with the list as-is.

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