Question: How big a lead should a team have, before the play-calling and scheme shifts to "conservative"

[Frostx08]

It's high risk high reward...as a turnover can give the other team momentum. A 3 and out...despite giving them another opportunity will not give them the same level of hope

Kyle Shanahan commented on that in the Philly game...saying his father told him to ease up on the play calling instead of going in for the kill. Kyle was saying how he has that itch to do that at times but understands his father's thinking

[XEL]

If you're up 30+ in the 3rd, you can relax a bit, but don't get too comfortable. IF you're up 21 in the 4th, then go conservative (meaning safe calls. not useless calls and most fans tend to think >< ) as the other team will most likely not be able to catch up, if you control the clock well.

[Commander PK]

Also I wonder what makes a play call conservative?

Well, let's address this. What is "conservative" to you? For me, I would say this in this situation: 10 point lead, with 8 minutes left in the 4th quarter, on your own 25.

A run up the middle for 2 yards on 1st. A run up the middle for 3 yards on second. A play action pass on 3rd down for 4 yards, where the receiver is immediately tackled. 4th and 1 punt the ball away.

At least to me, a fan, that would seem like "conservative" play calling. You are not taking any chances, but you only have 10 point lead. Of course, if the receiver catches the ball on 3rd and 5 a yard shy, and then runs for the first down after the catch. Yeah, you get the first down, but you are still in my mind playing it safe. Maybe the running back breaks one up the middle, who knows. I think you could do this in a game where you have successfully established the run, and the defense has shown they cannot stop the run. If you are gashing them, this type of play calling is fine. If you haven't really been able to run the ball, or have been average at best. Now you telegraph what you are going to do, and they stack the box and stuff you on downs. I think, at least for the Skins, maybe not so much this season, but this has been a huge problem for us in the past. Clinging to a 7 point lead, trying to run a "clock control" offense, when you haven't really established the run the whole game. Never seems to work.

[s0crates]

There comes a time in a game when you should run the clock, but it is not merely a matter of how big a lead you have. There are other factors to consider: How is your defense playing? How is your run game working? How much time is left in the game? How is the opposing offense playing? Is it a defensive slugfest or an offensive shootout? There are more, but you get the point. Sometimes it is time to run clock, sometimes it is not.

[Redskins4ever]

If I were a head coach, I wouldn't go conservative until the last quarter of the game. If I'm up by fourteen points and my defense is playing lights out, I would have my offensive coordinator call conservative plays. But I'd only do it in the 4th quarter while having at least a two touch down lead or more.

[Audible_Red40]

I also voted never.

Having said that, time left in the game is an important factor. I mean if you're up 21+ points with 7ish minutes left. I guess it could be time to "run the clock out" on offense. I hate prevent defense. If you were/are successful getting after the QB, never let up.

[Art McDonough]

In the Redskins case, no lead is safe.

[illone]

I voted for 21 points because that is how most NFL teams respond but in the Redskins case I will agree with those that voted NEVER

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

id say 3 scores but it has to be in the late 3rd quarter. and conservative is a subjective term. teams cant go to sleep, but theres no reason to be throwing risky passes up by 21 points.

[Xero21]

id say 3 scores but it has to be in the late 3rd quarter. and conservative is a subjective term. teams cant go to sleep, but theres no reason to be throwing risky passes up by 21 points.

Exactly my thoughts. And if for whatever reason you fall back into a two possession lead, get aggressive again.

[Rpredskins]

21 points gives you a "buffer." 14 points is not a buffer because if they score once its a one-score game, which is played no differently than a tie game (except in the last few minutes).

by the way what has been our biggest lead this season? I want to say 11 or 14 over houston?

[GhostofSparta]

21 points gives you a "buffer." 14 points is not a buffer because if they score once its a one-score game, which is played no differently than a tie game (except in the last few minutes).

by the way what has been our biggest lead this season? I want to say 11 or 14 over houston?

17. At one point we were up 27-10 on Houston, only to lose 30-27.

[longball]

This is a great interview question for a coach? Has it ever been asked at redskins park?

[Guest Spearfeather]

Never? .... Really? So, you've been throwing the ball most of the game, you're up by 17 halfway through the third quarter, and you just keep airing it out? You don't start running the ball a little more?

[GoDeep81]

I choose 21 points, but that should also come with a disclaimer that there's less than half of the 4th quarter left to play as well.. Anything more than 7 or 8 minutes left to play and a team could easily get back into a game from 21+ down.. That last half of the quarter is about the only time I think it's ok to go conservative and just run the ball all 3 downs and punt if needed..

[kevinklein]

Three score game, halfway through the fourth quarter.

[GhostofSparta]

Never? .... Really? So, you've been throwing the ball most of the game, you're up by 17 halfway through the third quarter, and you just keep airing it out? You don't start running the ball a little more?

Depends. Are you up 17-0, or are you up 41-24? One shows that the other offense hasn't done anything all game, and are not likely to mount a comeback, while the other shows that your offense is dominating and their offense can still score to make it interesting. I mean, if they can score 24 points in 37:30, why is it impossible for them to tie it with 22:30 left? Either way, why call off the dogs before the 4th? Have you never heard of The Comeback (Bills vs. Oilers, January 3rd 1993)? That was a 35-3 game near the start of the 3rd. The Bills scored 38 points in less than 30 minutes.

Not to say running the ball wouldn't be smart, but in the NFL you can't just shut your offense down with 1 1/2 quaters to play, no matter how big the lead. After all, a 3 and out only takes about 2 minutes off the clock. Is taking 6 minutes off the clock with over 22 minutes left really worth risking your offense's rythm?

[CommanderDOOM]

If your up 30 in the second half then its time to work on the run game......unless your playing an explosive offense. Then u wait till midway thru the 4th.

[Titans&SkinsFan]

I say never...I've seen too many close calls between the titans and redskins, and even some losses. I'm not even a fan of kneeling down at the end of the game, but I can understand the reasoning behind it.

[SkinsHokieFan]

It really depeneds on the game.

I have seen games where its 14-7, yet that 7 points might as well be 50 points

And I have seen games where its 35-14 in the 3rd, yet the team trailing by 21 comes back to win in OT behind their 3rd string QB!

[Potato Sack]

In terms of a Redskins' team, you should never play conservatively. I don't care if you're a gazillion points ahead.

But if we're looking at the NFL as a whole, I'd say 21 points is enough cushion to begin calling conservative plays.

[Guest Spearfeather]

Depends. Are you up 17-0, or are you up 41-24? One shows that the other offense hasn't done anything all game, and are not likely to mount a comeback, while the other shows that your offense is dominating and their offense can still score to make it interesting. I mean, if they can score 24 points in 37:30, why is it impossible for them to tie it with 22:30 left? Either way, why call off the dogs before the 4th? Have you never heard of The Comeback (Bills vs. Oilers, January 3rd 1993)? That was a 35-3 game near the start of the 3rd. The Bills scored 38 points in less than 30 minutes.

Not to say running the ball wouldn't be smart, but in the NFL you can't just shut your offense down with 1 1/2 quaters to play, no matter how big the lead. After all, a 3 and out only takes about 2 minutes off the clock. Is taking 6 minutes off the clock with over 22 minutes left really worth risking your offense's rythm?

Let's see. Where to start? As far as the 41 - 24 or 17 - 0 thing, no matter how you look at it, a 17 point lead is a 17 point lead, and probability is not destiny. Just because the other team hasn't been getting much through the air to that point in the game, doesn't gaurentee it can't happen. It's going to take time for the other team to score 17 points, even if it's just a total of say four or five minutes, which would be pretty quick for two touchdowns and a field goal. Run the ball. Take time off the clock.

As far as the Oilers - Bills game in '93...Was that the one I watched off and on while working the desk in the emergency room of the hospital in '93? Yeah...that was it. I remember that one, and you know what? Warren Moon threw the ball 50 times in that game. Oilers running backs only had 20 attempts. I would argue that if Houston had run the ball more in the second half, they would not have lost.

[GhostofSparta]

Let's see. Where to start? As far as the 41 - 24 or 17 - 0 thing, no matter how you look at it, a 17 point lead is a 17 point lead, and probability is not destiny. Just because the other team hasn't been getting much through the air to that point in the game, doesn't gaurentee it can't happen. It's going to take time for the other team to score 17 points, even if it's just a total of say four or five minutes, which would be pretty quick for two touchdowns and a field goal. Run the ball. Take time off the clock.

As far as the Oilers - Bills game in '93...Was that the one I watched off and on while working the desk in the emergency room of the hospital in '93? Yeah...that was it. I remember that one, and you know what? Warren Moon threw the ball 50 times in that game. Oilers running backs only had 20 attempts. I would argue that if Houston had run the ball more in the second half, they would not have lost.

Yes, that's the game. And I know if Houston had run the ball they would have won, but they also had a 35 point lead in the 2nd half. So it's kind of a weird example because it's so extreme on both ends. Hell, Oakland was leading by over 30 points at halftime on Sunday, and still scored 3 TDs in the 3rd quarter being "conservative" by running the ball, but they still had all their starter in until it was 59-14 in the 4th quarter. Then, I'd say it's ok to let up your guard, but again that's extreme too because it's a 45 point lead with 1 quarter to play. Sure it's hard to score 17 points quickly....but the Colts and Patriots of just a couple of years ago, or even the Saints of last year, were teams that could turn a game around in a heartbeat. All it takes is a fumble returned for a TD to turn your 17 point lead into a 2 score game. And like you said, probability doesn't mean destiny, but I honestly believe that no NFL team should feel safe letting off the throttle before a 3 score lead (and I mean a 3 TD lead) in the 4th quarter. But as has been said in this thread, "conservative" doesn't necessarily mean running the ball 3 times and punting just because it takes 2 minutes off the clock. Short hitches, screen passes, and yes even 1 or 2 deep bombs to keep the defense honest can be part of a conservative game plan that keeps your defense fresh for the final quarter.

After all, if your O is going into prevent mode, the D might follow suit. I know they're professionals, but if Peyton can phone in the last quarter, why can't Freeney or Mathis? Hard to keep half your team motivated while the other half gets to half-ass the rest of the game.

[nemocystem]

never, ever, ever, ever, EVAR!

situationally....maybe if you're under 5 minutes left in the 4th & you're up by 30+....maybe.

i've seen too much craziness in my life to EVER condone a conservative approach when having a lead. it ALWAYS FAILS. see "prevent defense"

[bulldog]

the best teams don't quit. they play their schemes and alignments regardless of whether they are ahead by 14 or 28 points.

New England's offense attacked non-stop in 2007. Baltimore's defense doesn't stop pressuring the qb.

That's what good teams do, stick to what they now and how they are effective.