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The Official Washington Wizards Thread: The BEAL & BRODIE ERA


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5 hours ago, Destino said:

here’s what I don’t want.  I do not want a defensive wing with no offensive game.  Those players play for on average 600 different teams throughout their careers unless they surprise everyone and learn to shoot at an all star level.

 

The scouting report on Okoro seems to be that he can't shoot off the catch but he does score off the dribble.  He gets to the FT line and finishes around the rim really well and his dribble pull up numbers are better than his catch and shoot ones.

 

Thus he's got an offensive game.  It sounds like his ceiling is somewhere between Marcus Smart and Jimmy Butler to me.  Any outcome in that range would be really positive from the 9th pick in a draft class that people don't love.  And the catch and shoot game is one type of improvement that a lot of players have demonstrated is very doable.

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1 hour ago, Hersh said:


anytime a player is still a jump shot away from being a good all-round player after playing basketball for a long time, just say no

 

I don't agree with this.  Some of the best players in the league were either non shooters in college or Euroleague, or still are.  Leonard, Butler, Siakam, Davis, Simmons, Giannis, DeRozan, Draymond.

 

You have to be able to project growth with these guys to draft well, and really good players can make enormous impact without being good shooters, or they get good at shooting over the course of their NBA careers.  Shooting is not a reason to write prospects off.

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5 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I don't agree with this.  Some of the best players in the league were either non shooters in college or Euroleague, or still are.  Leonard, Butler, Siakam, Davis, Simmons, Giannis, DeRozan, Draymond.

 

You have to be able to project growth with these guys to draft well, and really good players can make enormous impact without being good shooters, or they get good at shooting over the course of their NBA careers.  Shooting is not a reason to write prospects off.

 

 

The only person on that list that didn't show much as a shooter that become a good shooter is AD. Leonard, Butler, and DeRozan all showed capable shooting according to scouting reports. Maybe Draymond can be compared but he's not any good without Steph and Klay. None of the other guys are comparable given the roles and positions they play. Simmons is a 6'10 PG. Giannis is a 6'11 beast that can dominate in different ways. 

 

We are talking about a 6'6 guy with this as a shot:

"The jump shot is kind of a mess. It’s inconsistent in terms of mechanics, particularly off the catch. Doesn’t have good shot prep and doesn’t involve his legs much. It’s a two-motion jumper there that often has a bit of a pause at the top, then a release that doesn’t come off the hand with good rotation or cleanly. His elbow flares regularly. Has a ball dip that he uses to get momentum to go up. His shoulders kind of hunch at times and then other times he fades away unnecessarily. It’s all over the place."

 

This one wasn't any better. https://www.nbadraft.net/players/isaac-okoro/

 

 

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7 hours ago, Hersh said:

The only person on that list that didn't show much as a shooter that become a good shooter is AD. Leonard, Butler, and DeRozan all showed capable shooting according to scouting reports. Maybe Draymond can be compared but he's not any good without Steph and Klay. None of the other guys are comparable given the roles and positions they play. Simmons is a 6'10 PG. Giannis is a 6'11 beast that can dominate in different ways. 

 

None of those guys were shooters in college.  Of that group, Jimmy Butler is the only one who shot above 25% from three in college, and he only shot them as a junior and still took less than two per game.  To this day, DeRozan and Butler still don't have a catch and shoot game and Giannis and Simmons have no range.  Siakam only became a capable shooter at 24-25, he had zero range before then.  Kawhi is probably the most famous example of someone who was an awful shooter in college becoming a great one in the NBA, and he's the reason not to write off a wing for shooting and efficiency issues in college.

 

Okoro is probably ahead of where most of those guys were as shooters at 19.  He shot over 60% from 2 and he shot more than 2 threes a game, so it's at least a part of his game that he's working in.  Shooting is also the area where players can make the most dramatic improvement as they hit their mid 20s.  He'll have to develop range unlike Simmons and Giannis, but there is definitely a track record for players doing exactly that once they hit the NBA.

 

There is a good chance he ends up being the best player from this class.  You can't pass on that just because he needs development as a shooter.

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26 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

None of those guys were shooters in college.  Of that group, Jimmy Butler is the only one who shot above 25% from three in college, and he only shot them as a junior and still took less than two per game.  To this day, DeRozan and Butler still don't have a catch and shoot game and Giannis and Simmons have no range.  Siakam only became a capable shooter at 24-25, he had zero range before then.  Kawhi is probably the most famous example of someone who was an awful shooter in college becoming a great one in the NBA, and he's the reason not to write off a wing for shooting and efficiency issues in college.

 

Okoro is probably ahead of where most of those guys were as shooters at 19.  He shot over 60% from 2 and he shot more than 2 threes a game, so it's at least a part of his game that he's working in.  Shooting is also the area where players can make the most dramatic improvement as they hit their mid 20s.  He'll have to develop range unlike Simmons and Giannis, but there is definitely a track record for players doing exactly that once they hit the NBA.

 

There is a good chance he ends up being the best player from this class.  You can't pass on that just because he needs development as a shooter.

 

So what is this prospect going to be able to do great if he never develops a jump shot that is consistent from any range? What aspect of the game will he control or dominate? Cause Giannis is capable of dominating without a jump shot. Simmons can control the pace of a game and put up triple-double numbers. How many players have Jimmy Butler comparisons and become Jimmy Butler? 

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17 minutes ago, Hersh said:

So what is this prospect going to be able to do great if he never develops a jump shot that is consistent from any range? What aspect of the game will he control or dominate? Cause Giannis is capable of dominating without a jump shot. Simmons can control the pace of a game and put up triple-double numbers. How many players have Jimmy Butler comparisons and become Jimmy Butler? 

 

If he never develops a consistent catch and shoot game, he is still a scorer off the dribble and he is an elite defender.  He's considered the best perimeter defender in the class.  He's got a dribble pull up game and he gets to the rim and the FT line and finishes through contact at an elite rate.  Those Jimmy Butler comparisons aren't coming out of nowhere.

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3 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

If he never develops a consistent catch and shoot game, he is still a scorer off the dribble and he is an elite defender.  He's considered the best perimeter defender in the class.  He's got a dribble pull up game and he gets to the rim and the FT line and finishes through contact at an elite rate.  Those Jimmy Butler comparisons aren't coming out of nowhere.

 

People are always compared to great players with the giant caveats. Again, you are ignoring what they are saying about his shot but hey, he's gonna be Jimmy Butler cause that happens all the time. 

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16 minutes ago, Hersh said:

 

People are always compared to great players with the giant caveats. Again, you are ignoring what they are saying about his shot but hey, he's gonna be Jimmy Butler cause that happens all the time. 

 

I'm not ignoring that part of his scouting report.  I'm the one who posted that section of the report about his shooting and you quoted my post to reiterate it.  I'm also the one who posted this FWIW:

 

16 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

There are pretty good reasons to think that Okoro won't reach Butler's level and Okongwu won't reach Adebayo's level apparently.  From Vecenie's scouting report, Okoro's handle isn't very tight and he had an even assist to turnover ratio suggesting that he's not the creative passer that Butler is.  He could cap out as a secondary or tertiary ball handler for an offense.  (But Okoro played full time as a freshman whereas Butler didn't, and Butler came out as a junior and still took four years in the NBA to get really good).

 

But you're the one ignoring all of the glowing positives and strengths in his scouting report and writing him off solely on the basis that he's not a good shooter right now, as well as pushing the erroneous claim that wings and forwards who are non shooters and bad shooters in college don't become great players in the NBA.  It's not true: players can become dominant without range, without a catch and shoot game, and they can also eventually become shooters in the NBA.  And Okoro isn't even a non shooter.  The catch and shoot three ball was a part of his game last season, he was just inconsistent.  There is reason to expect him to at least get to the point where he'll knock down open catch and shoot threes enough to hold a defender at the perimeter, and that's all you need if you've got other shooters on the floor.

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2 hours ago, Hersh said:

 

So what is this prospect going to be able to do great if he never develops a jump shot that is consistent from any range? What aspect of the game will he control or dominate? Cause Giannis is capable of dominating without a jump shot. Simmons can control the pace of a game and put up triple-double numbers. How many players have Jimmy Butler comparisons and become Jimmy Butler? 

 

Look at this draft though and where we are drafting.   There is not going to be anybody who is dominant at 9, so if you can get Okoro take him.   Its unlikely your next choice is going to be an All Star.

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4 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

We should be poking around about Jarrett Allen, trying to get him as the Nets start structuring their assets to go after Harden.

We’d already have him if Ernie hadn’t traded the pick away for nothing.

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3 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

If he never develops a consistent catch and shoot game, he is still a scorer off the dribble and he is an elite defender. 

There’s almost no room in the modern game for defensive wings that can’t shoot.  At this point the only players that can get by without being able to space the floor are defensive centers.  There are exceptions, for stars or near stars, but typically wings that can’t shoot become a massive liability on the offensive end where so many offensive sets will have them standing in a corner.  


6’6 is probably undersized for SF these days too.  Apparently height ain’t nothing but a number in this draft though, so what do I know.  
 

im going to feel foolish if he turns into the next Jimmy Butler though.  

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1 hour ago, Destino said:

There’s almost no room in the modern game for defensive wings that can’t shoot.  At this point the only players that can get by without being able to space the floor are defensive centers.  There are exceptions, for stars or near stars, but typically wings that can’t shoot become a massive liability on the offensive end where so many offensive sets will have them standing in a corner.  


6’6 is probably undersized for SF these days too.  Apparently height ain’t nothing but a number in this draft though, so what do I know.  
 

im going to feel foolish if he turns into the next Jimmy Butler though.  

 

There are quite a few perimeter players on good teams who weren't good shooters at Okoro's age.  Quite a few who still aren't, and quite a few All Stars too.  And these players can certainly have a big role on offense, particularly when they can attack the basket like Okoro.

 

Okoro doesn't need to become a knockdown shooter to space the floor, he just needs to get to where he can pull a defender to the 3 PT line when he catches it, or make the defense pay for leaving him open.  That's not a high bar, and it looks to me like he was already working that into his game at Auburn.  He's 19 and not a finished product by any means.  I would be surprised if he didn't become a better shooter over the next few years.

 

Jaylen Brown actually profiles as pretty similar to Okoro, and he wasn't even as good his freshman year at Cal as Okoro was at Auburn.  Similar numbers, but Okoro was more efficient and his team was better.  And from all of the scout takes, Okoro was the biggest factor behind his team's success, and that they were like net negative 15 points per possession when he was off the floor, and lost to some bottom dweller teams in the SEC despite the fact that the other five main players in their rotation were seniors.  That's pretty impressive, and reinforces what you see when you look at his high school background of leading his school to a championship and national number one ranking and an undefeated record at the highest level in his state.  Gold medalist on the U17 World Cup team in 2018 too.  There is a pattern of constant winning in his background that is impressive, especially when you compare his record to Anthony Edwards--a higher touted but very similar prospect who has never won at any level of the sport.

 

I've read that the Celtics are rumored to want to trade up for him, and that the Spurs are his floor.  The Warriors have shown interest and Cleveland at five is probably as early as he'll go.  If we pass on him and he ends up in San Antonio, you know what's going to happen.  He'll quickly become a good shooter and end up being the best player in the class.  When the good GMs are sniffing around a guy, we should be taking note.

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3 hours ago, Hersh said:

Setting all that aside for now, what about a guy like Nesmith out of Vandy? Dude can shoot now from 3 and play D. Knock on him is his handle but Wiz have two ball dominant guys so it's less important early. 

 

The report on him says he's a knockdown shooter and a smart player, but that he's a below average athlete and doesn't offer much beyond his shooting.  He wouldn't be the worst pick at 9 because he is likely to be a solid rotation player, but I don't think he'd make us better and the upside of the pick would be a little disappointing.  He makes more sense for teams like Minnesota, maybe with that second first round pick they have.

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They should be offering Wall and picks for Harden.  Nets have no one as good to offer.  This will become clear if they haven’t made the trade once the season starts and Wall looks great.  
 

Harden doesn’t want to be coached, and Brooks doesn’t coach anyone.  Perfect fit.

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Westbrook and Wall have the same number of years left on their contract and basically the same amount of money.  It's not a very strategic trade for the Wizards, especially if you have to give up assets to make it happen.  If they're considering this, it means that there is something going on behind the scenes to where the organization has turned on Wall.

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  • Destino changed the title to The Official Washington Wizards Thread: The BEAL & BRODIE ERA

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