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I thought Sato was gonna be better than he was thisĀ year. Ā Even cutting him some slack for getting accustomed to NBA basketball. Ā Not sure what he does well. Ā He's not fast, not strong, not a particularly strong defender and his offensive game is weak.

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5 minutes ago, justice98 said:

I thought Sato was gonna be better than he was thisĀ year. Ā Even cutting him some slack for getting accustomed to NBA basketball. Ā Not sure what he does well. Ā He's not fast, not strong, not a particularly strong defender and his offensive game is weak.

Disagree with some of this.

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He's very fast with the ball in his hands....and he's a very good defender.

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Agree with him not being strong and his offensive game (so far).

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I feel like his offensive game will improve with time. He very frequently is sooooo close to making a play he would have made outside of the NBA, but I think he underestimated, a lot of the time, how much more athletic the NBA is. With time, I think he will be able to close the gap of aestheticism with timing and anticipation.....because he is in alot of plays he just doesn't finish them.Ā 

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Main thing for Sato is getting good at catching and shooting. Ā He's got some mid range scoring tools and he can finish at the basket. Ā He likes to put the ball on the floor and take these floaters when he catches on the perimeter. Ā But the lack of confidence in catch and shoot situations makes him easy to guard. Ā He needs to get good and let it fly.

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The best things Sato has going for him are his size and his athleticism. Ā He's huge for a guard. Ā Peers over the defense and reads the floor well enough to play some point guard. Ā And he's already a good defender. Ā Quality on ball D at his sizeĀ gives him the ability to switch on a variety of players. Ā He's a smart defender Ā too. Ā Young Euro playersĀ get way better teaching than American ones and it shows in Sato's defensive awareness.

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I think he went through normal young player on a good team struggles last season. Ā He's going to have a hard time getting regular minutes until he grows his game and becomes more confident. Ā He and Kelly were in a similar boat except that Kelly was a little farther along, being in his second season. Ā The holes in their offensive game are kind of the reverse of each other. Ā Kelly has no fear of shooting and lets it fly in rhythm. Ā But he can't see the floor well and doesn't have an advanced handle.

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IMO those two will continue to grow and become really good bench players within the next two years or so. Ā I'm not in a hurry to trade them because I think they can become low cost rotation mainstays. Ā I'd only deal them in a package for a really big fish like Paul George.

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I'm glad we're giving Jaleel Roberts another look. Ā He's got some talent. Ā I just don't see the use of going through another season with Ochefu at the end of the bench. Ā The only thing he really brought to the table was a big body to good in up in blow outs and we never used him that way. Ā Might as well replace him with a potential shot blocker.

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Sato needs confidence above all else, he was very clearly intimidated on the floor last season. Ā He'sĀ fast and strong enough for his position, NBA point guards weren't just shouldering him aside or blowing by him. Ā 

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After confidence he needs to learn to shoot and shoot like an NBA player. Ā In other leagues playersĀ can get away with one unnecessary dribble, but theyĀ can't do that in the NBA. Ā One dribble is all it takes for the defense to snuff out a shot opportunity. Ā He's not talented enough to expect the amount of space Wall gets, so he needs a shot that gets upĀ much faster and the confidence to pull the trigger.

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Just now, Destino said:

Sato needs confidence above all else, he was very clearly intimidated on the floor last season. Ā He'sĀ fast and strong enough for his position, NBA point guards weren't just shouldering him aside or blowing by him. Ā 

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After confidence he needs to learn to shoot and shoot like an NBA player. Ā In other leagues playersĀ can get away with one unnecessary dribble, but theyĀ can't do that in the NBA. Ā One dribble is all it takes for the defense to snuff out a shot opportunity. Ā He's not talented enough to expect the amount of space Wall gets, so he needs a shot that gets upĀ much faster and the confidence to pull the trigger.

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100% agree. Ā Perimeter shooting is what's holding him back. Ā It's keeping him out of the regular rotation because it is hard to play a SG that is afraid to take threes.

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Sato is much more confident in his dribble drive game. Ā I remember seeing him get locked in and take difficult runners and go at interior defenders under the basket. Ā My reaction was "huh, that's a niceĀ surprise." Ā It's usually the opposite with young wings.

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I think he's going to grow into a rotation player. Ā I remember reading an article last summer about how he, Otto, and I think Oubre or Burke would compete in 3 pt shooting contests at the end of practices. Ā So I don't think he's starting from scratch like his numbers would suggest. Ā Like you said it's a matter of confidence. Ā Doing the reps and getting used to NBA speed so that he can let it fly. Ā We've also got a track record of developing three balls after both Wall and Otto got a lot better from deep. Ā Otto really didn't have three ball range for his first two years and he eventually grew into one of the best three point shooters in the league by his fourth season. Ā I'm not expecting him to be a good shooter this upcoming year, but I think he could be solid by the next one and good by the one after that.

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I am expecting Kelly to make a respectable leap this year. Ā I think he could shoot 36%+ from deep and put up a 14 PER. Ā His next big wall to climb is adjusting to the grind of playing a good chunk of minutes for an entire season.

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If Oubre and Sato both take that next step, that would go a long way towards fixing the bench. I think our starting 5 can hang with anyone(I believe we were 2nd in the league in point differential from our starting 5 with the Warriors being 1st)but we can't keep having the other team instantly go on 8-0 runs whenever Wall sits.

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Click to read the rest

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wizards-insider/wp/2017/06/26/how-much-are-the-wizards-willing-to-spend-over-the-luxury-tax-line/?utm_term=.db8bc0210331

Quote

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How much are the Wizards willing to spend over the luxury tax line?

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By the end of this week, the Washington Wizards may dare to wander into a new and exciting land: the luxury tax.

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For years the Wizards have avoided the luxury tax line, almost as if itĀ represented a dangerous precipice over which the franchise could plummet. Even in 2013 when the team rewarded John Wall with a maximum salary extension and also last summer when Bradley Beal earnedĀ a maximum contract, Washington remained under the tax penalty threshold. However, that may soon change.

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SinceĀ the 2017-18 salary cap is projected at $99 million with the luxury tax line stretching to $119 million ā€” although teams will be informed of the exact amounts on June 30, the day before the start of free agency ā€” Washington could become a taxpaying team if the market for restricted free agent Otto Porter Jr. demands it.

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6 minutes ago, justice98 said:

Basically, somebody is going to have to improve greatly for this team to be worth anything next year. Ā Cuz we could be right back in the same boat with that bench.

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I expect improvement from Wall, Beal, Porter and Morris...and we will definitely go over the cap.

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I think Wall takes that next step and becomes a legit MVP candidate next year. I'm talking 25 PPG, 11 APG, among top of the league in SPG and BPG(for a PG). I'm not saying he'll win it but he'll be in the discussion.

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Beal will be an All-Star. Hell he should have been this yer but there was a clusterf at G in the East. Won't be an issue with Butler in the West now and Lowry probably gone. I think he could eclipse 25 PPG as well. I'd love to see his FT% get over 85%, no reason why he can't hit 90 with that stroke.

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Porter will improve as well. Not sure about #s or whether he'll be an All-Star or anything like that but I expect a more consistent scoring production game in and game out along with continued good D and general "glue guy" ness.

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I'm hoping Wall/Beal/Porter can be our Curry/Thompson/Green. I don't think Wall is as good as Curry and probably never will be(because Curry is the best 3 point shooter ever), but I think Beal can reach Thompson level. Porter vs. Green, we'll see, Green was a 2nd round pick, its not like he's some crazy good athlete, but he's a grinder who maximizes his potential. I doubt Porter will ever be able to guard all 5 spots like Green can but I think Porter could be a silkier smoother offensive player.

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That's probably our absolute best case scenario, that we take the big step the Warriors took in 2014-2015, but I'm not sure Brooks is as good a coach as Kerr and we don't have the depth/role players that the Warriors had that year.

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We can cut Ochefu and Mac with no cap repercussion. Ā We can save almost 2 million by replacing them with min contracts. Ā Getting Tim Frazier for two million is big. Ā It's a critical position that was going to be hard to fill for that little money. Ā That's probably the main reason we made the trade. Ā Hopefully he actually works out.

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The easiest situation is to just pay the damn tax. Ā Then we can have some decent wings on the bench. Ā Also remember that we wouldn't have to pay tax until the end of the year, so if we fall on our faces we can cut salary at the deadline to get under the line if we're close.

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But if we have ambitions of building a super team in 2018, then we do need to be cognizant of potential repeater tax issues down the road. Ā Might not make sense to trigger that earlier than we'd have to. Ā We're not winning the title with this roster. Ā So paying tax is a tough sell.

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Hopefully Otto signs for like 20 million per and we can sign a couple of min contracts and stay under it. Ā You only really need 14 guys too, the 15th spot can be a min contract hold.

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13 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

That's probably our absolute best case scenario, that we take the big step the Warriors took in 2014-2015, but I'm not sure Brooks is as good a coach as Kerr and we don't have the depth/role players that the Warriors had that year.

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Mahinmi could be like Bogut if he actually stayed healthy for most of a season. Ā Gortat is kind of like David Lee.

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But we don't have an Iggy or Draymond. Ā Otto is more like Harrison Barnes in this scenario.

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Iggy and Draymond have been utterly crucial to the Warriors' success. Ā Not having our own versions of them means we can't play like them, even if Wall could shoot like Curry/be a push at that position. Ā Keef is just nowhere near as good as Draymond, and we can't put him up at C and bring Oubre off the bench like Iggy and play a death line up that nobody can guard and that can also defend really well to avoid being torched.

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And even if we did have our own Draymond and Iggy, we don't have a Durant, so there is no chance we could beat this current, better version of the Warriors.

If you could swap Oubre for Paul George to be our Iggy and Keef for a much better defensive player--say Paul Millsap--to be our Draymond, then we would be like the 2014/2015 Warriors. Ā But there is no way to acquire those guys and pay for that kind of roster. Ā 

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And it wouldn't be good enough to beat the current Warriors because Wall would be outplayed by Curry and we'd have zero answer for Durant.

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2 hours ago, TryTheBeal! said:

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I expect improvement from Wall, Beal, Porter and Morris...and we will definitely go over the cap.

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Oubre should improve. Ā Maybe not a ton, but third year is when wings start playing OK. Ā Otto became a competent starting caliber player in his third season.

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I also think Mahinmi will be better for the simple fact he had a lost season where he contributed almost nothing. Ā Then again, his legs are fragile and it wouldn't surprise me if he stayed hurt next year too.

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If we accept as realistic that:

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- John can make the leap to being a legit MVP candidate

- Beal can play at an AS level the whole season

- Kelly makes the leap to being a quality 6th or 7th man

- Mahinmi gets closer to what he was his final year in Indy

- Frazier solidifies the back up PG position

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Then

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- Mahinmi would get four or five more win shares and offset likely decline from Gortat to add about two wins to our total

- Beal would probably add another win to our total

- Kelly would add another win

- John would add three, maybe four wins

- Frazier gives us another win or two, since we got less than one win share from our back up PGs last season.

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Thus subtract a little over one win for the loss of Bogs, and our best case scenarioĀ given those conditions would be about 58Ā wins.

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But more likely we'll get about half of those wins added and finish around 53. Ā Beal was mostly healthy and could take a small step back in terms of win shares. Ā Mahinmi could stay injured and not give us five+ win shares. Ā Frazier could bust and give us nothing. Ā And John could certainly fail to make the leap to MVP caliber season and end up with only about 10 win shares instead of 12 to 13.

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Or Wall could get hurt and we win like 30 something games.

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If I were putting money on it, my guess would be 53 wins.

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So big 3 basketball is on and the "3 headed monsters" have Jason Williams, Rashard Lewis, and Kwame Brown on the floor.

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Ā Kwame Brown is the bust that just never stopped playing basketball. Ā 

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This is some weird time capsule stuff here. Ā Lots of rust on these old ballers.

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