2011 Comprehensive NFL Draft Database

[Dukes and Skins]

He was dinged up last year and I think that he wanted to give a better showing before he went pro. I also don't think that he was physically mature enough either.

If he stays healthy and continues to develop, he could be a late 1st/2nd round selection. He'd have to go to the right system as well. He isn't a beast of a center and has a bit of a finesse game to him.

Understandable but I was just looking at it in the terms of if he came out it was either him or Pouncey. This year its him and Wisniewski which is going to be tough to pick one over the other because they both are versatile and they both are good.

[Oldskool]

Understandable but I was just looking at it in the terms of if he came out it was either him or Pouncey. This year its him and Wisniewski which is going to be tough to pick one over the other because they both are versatile and they both are good.

Wisniewski, like O'Dowd, isn't a massive Center and would have to go to a team that plays a ZBS. The difference between the two IMO is that Wisniewski is more athletic but O'Dowd is more polished.

[Going Commando]

I think Penn State might be playing Wisniewski at guard this year. There are a lot of talented guard prospects in this year's class. It looks like it might end up being much, much better than the tackle group. I think this might be a year where we only see one or two legit first round LT prospects. Good thing we got ours last year.

Right now I see DeMarcus Love as the only prospect legit NFL LT, although I think he'd be better suited to playing RT in a zone scheme. Derrick Sherrod from Mississippi St is another option, but I haven't really seen or heard a lot about him yet. I'm looking forward to seeing how Tyron Smith from USC does this season on the left side. He's another guy who could be a nice ZBS LT option and could work his way into an early round if he comes out early.

Other than that you have:

Gabe Carimi: lacks range, probably a RT

Anthony Castonzo: lacks strength, a developmental tackle

Nate Solder: lacks consistency, another developmental tackle

Joseph Barksdale: lacks recognition, still another developmental tackle

Jason Pinkston: lacks athleticism, a guard prospect

Clint Boling: lacks base strength to play RT and agility to play LT, a nice ZBS guard though

Marcus Cannon: lacks footspeed, another great guard prospect

Lee Ziemba: lacks aggression and footspeed, a reserve lineman at best

The flip side of that is that so many talented college tackles will kick inside to guard and make this one of the deepest position groups in the entire draft. Aside from some of the tackle names I mentioned, I really like these guys:

Rodney Hudson: very talented, but size will drop him into the second round

Ben Ijalana: better than Vladimir Ducasse was by a solid margin

Steve Schilling: could be a breakout season for him

Justin Boren: gets overlooked somehow even though he plays for Ohio St.

Jarriel King: has moved all over the place at SC, he's a developmental prospect with the athletic ceiling of an impact guard

Plus you've got the big four center prospects you all mentioned, Wisniewski, O'Dowd, Pouncey, and Baxter. I think all four of those guys could have starting potential as NFL centers which is rare to find in a class. Now I don't think there is anyway we'll draft those guys to play center. It's a position with a very difficult learning curve in the ZBS. We'll stick with Rabach and give Lichtensteiger a shot. But I wouldn't rule out drafting one of these guys to play guard for a few years and then kick them inside to center once they've been seasoned.

[Oldskool]

Other tackle prospect could be Nate Potter from Boise State. He does play in a similar ZBS that is run in the NFL and was very successful against VaTech. He did get beat a few times by speed rushers so I think he's a RT in the pros. Probably a 2nd round pick simply due to his playing in the WAC.

I need to see more on Joseph Barksdale. Coming into the season I've seen projections of him being a LT and a 1st round pick in the NFL.

Good news also on the guard front. As much as I love the Hicks signing, he needs to be replaced with a younger, more talented player.

[Going Commando]

Other tackle prospect could be Nate Potter from Boise State. He does play in a similar ZBS that is run in the NFL and was very successful against VaTech. He did get beat a few times by speed rushers so I think he's a RT in the pros. Probably a 2nd round pick simply due to his playing in the WAC.

I need to see more on Joseph Barksdale. Coming into the season I've seen projections of him being a LT and a 1st round pick in the NFL.

Good news also on the guard front. As much as I love the Hicks signing, he needs to be replaced with a younger, more talented player.

Potter is very intriguing because Boise State might also play him at guard some this season because apparently they are having a few injury problems inside. He'll probably put out some really good tape at guard this year, so he's a player that we can look at as a swing tackle/guard.

The word on Barksdale seems to be that he has the athleticism to play LT in the NFL, but is very rough at this point. I've seen a few concerns raised about his mental acuity and right now he's considered more of a developmental player and not a year one starter. CBS has him projected in a 5th/6th round range right now, but if he's got the athleticism to play LT he'll go earlier. There just are not many legit LT prospects in this year's class so he could get overdrafted if he shows even a kernel of promise.

I agree about Hicks. He's best as your first lineman off the bench rather than a starter. I'd like to see us draft two guards actually--one who can start fairly soon and one to develop with a good amount of upside. Dockery is getting older himself. I love him and he's a rock but this scheme is not his best fit and the movement will only get harder for him as he ages. He's nice to have when we run inside, but we'll probably need upgrade him in the near future.

[Going Commando]

I wanted to compile a post with links to the profiles I've done so far. Can you put something in the OP D&S with a similar format to what Forehead did last year? You could have one section of the OP linking to position rankings, big boards, and mock drafts. And then you could do a second section linking to player profiles.

Linebackers:

Robert Quinn

Travis Lewis

Chris Galippo

Sam Acho

Defensive Linemen:

Stephen Paea

Allen Bailey

[Oldskool]

I've just started watching for OL via college football games but if what you say is true about LT's then I'm glad the Skins got Williams when they did.

If teams are going to look at Potter at guard instead of RT, then his draft status could slip into a solidly 2nd round grade. My hope for Tackle is that we sign Brown to an extension and he can man that position for a few more years at a high level.

As for drafting 2 guards, it may not be realistic simply due to lack of draft picks and needs at other positions. I'd hope that the team could get a guard that is suited for the ZBS in free agency and draft a guard to replace Dockery. Dockery's contract was fashioned with only $8.2m guaranteed money so cutting him wouldn't be a great monetary loss or simply demote for depth as he is under contract until '13.

[Going Commando]

Sam Acho, LB, Texas

Senior, 6'3", 260 lbs.

Acho is being billed on a lot of draft sites as the next great Texas pass rusher following Sergio Kindle last year and Brian Orakpo from the year before. I’m not so sure I buy into that because he’s a different kind of player (read: not as talented) than them. But Acho is not without his merits as a prospect. First off, Acho owns great character and is recognized nationally for his community service. Each summer he makes a mission trip to Nigeria to provide health care and hand out medicine to the impoverished. So he’s a very easy player to root for.

Looking at his frame, he looks well built and long armed with a nice looking base. He certainly looks the part of an NFL 3-4 OLB and he kind of reminds me of Terrell Suggs in frame. That’s about where the comparisons to Suggs will end though, as he is nowhere near the talent T-Sizzle was coming out of college. Let’s take a look at this youtube video of him versus Nebraska:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BfKcMbuFycs

The first thing I noticed from this video is that Acho is definitely a 3-4 OLB prospect and not a 4-3 DE. His motor is good, not great. He’s got a decent first step and nice balance as a pass rusher so that he can run around college tackles well and he’s been productive, registering 8 sacks last season. Acho also looks good tracking down the line and extending his arms into the tackle at the 0:12 mark of the video. And he looks like he does a nice job in pursuit so it’s a good bet he’d have the range to play the run standing up as an OLB. He looks athletic when he breaks down and makes plays off his frame and is strong enough to be an effective wrap up/drag down tackler. His recognition skills look solid, he seems to identify run keys quickly, and he locates the ball well in the backfield. His closing speed is solid if unspectacular–in short, his athleticism and intelligence are wholly adequate to be an NFL OLB.

However, that’s about as positive as I can get after having reviewed so many brilliant prospects in the class already. Acho doesn’t display elite burst and isn’t particularly explosive off the snap. I don’t think he’s got the footspeed to consistently bend the edge and so he’ll have to turn to a power game to become an elite NFL rusher like Lamarr Woodley. However, Acho doesn’t showcase the strength and nastiness to do this. He plays too high and tends to overextend himself letting linemen into his chest. He doesn’t use his hands particularly well and struggles to disengage. And he really struggles to keep his base firm and gets pushed way off the ball in the running game far too often. He doesn’t demonstrate an assortment of rushing moves and his bullrush is very lacking. I’d say he hasn’t quite figured out how to best use his hands. He’ll let himself get sealed by tight ends and struggles to disengage once a lineman latches on. As I said earlier, the motor is good, not great, but what troubles me about Acho is that he lacks a nastiness to his demeanor that you want in an NFL linebacker. His game lacks violence and I don’t ever see him developing into an impact player at the next level. I’d say he’s much more likely to become a solid assignment defender, but to get there he’ll have to improve a great deal in his run defense. As it is now, he’s far too much of a liability at the PoA to hold his own as a starting 4-3 DE and so he’s pigeonholed as a rotational OLB/pass rusher.

What does he entail for us?

He’d be a reliable reserve and spot starter for us at OLB. I doubt he could crack our starting lineup ahead of Andre Carter and Brian Orakpo. He lacks the speed and explosion Andre had at a similar point in his career and he doesn’t have Andre’s repertoire yet. I’d say Acho’s ceiling is as a Woodley type pass rusher but he lacks the physicality and motor to his game to ever reach that level. If he maximizes his athletic potential, I could see Acho having a Bryan Thomas or Jarrett Johnson like level of production. There is certainly value in that–that’s starting caliber production on a good defense. Again, he’ll have to improve against the run to get there though. I’d say Acho has mid to late round value around the 4th or 5th for a 34 team like us. He could be fairly productive against the pass early on as a specialist you could rotate in on third down (although I don’t know why you wouldn’t just use Chris Wilson or Jeremy Jarmon in that kind of role). He wouldn’t be my first choice if I were searching for an OLB in that range since I prefer players who might have lower athletic upside but play with a lot more physicality and violence. But we could do worse.

[Warpath11]

Plus you've got the big four center prospects you all mentioned, Wisniewski, O'Dowd, Pouncey, and Baxter. I think all four of those guys could have starting potential as NFL centers which is rare to find in a class. Now I don't think there is anyway we'll draft those guys to play center. It's a position with a very difficult learning curve in the ZBS. We'll stick with Rabach and give Lichtensteiger a shot. But I wouldn't rule out drafting one of these guys to play guard for a few years and then kick them inside to center once they've been seasoned.

I think a quick athletic center is a must in the new NFL. With all these 3-4 teams out there the NT must be neutralized especially in a ZBS. Id like to get a center that can move in space and seal a NT consistantly. Not necessarily stuff the NT with strength but just get in front of him and seal him off to the inside on those strech running plays.

http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread.php?t=331814

Check out the OP in the thread above you can see how important the Center is at controlling Ratliff albeit barely, if the Center was quicker he could really seal Ratliff by getting to the spot faster and just standing there, that should buy the RB enough time to get to the hole.

[Going Commando]

I've called for an upgrade over Casey Rabach for the past three years. I've resigned myself to the simple fact that it's not going to happen any time soon. He just got an extension at the beginning of the offseason and he's "only" 32 which is sprightly for a center.

I'd love to get an athletic center who doesn't need much help to take on a NT. I think everyone would. The problem is that those types of players are very rare and usually end up costing a first round pick which is atrocious draft value since the average starting center is probably a fourth or fifth rounder. When interior linemen get taken that high, they usually end up settling at guard. Maurkice Pouncey was the best center prospect I can remember watching and even he was slated to play guard before Justin Hartwig's release moved him to center.

And the learning curve for the position cannot be overstated. Rookie centers almost always struggle because it's a very hard position to learn. Then you can pretty much double that degree of difficulty for a center in a primarily ZBS because you give him so many more keys to read. Man blocking like Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and the Jets do is mindless by comparison. Those are the teams that started highly drafted rookie centers in recent years with mixed results.

All of that adds up to us not taking a center in the first half of next year's draft. I think Shanahan is very comfortable going to battle with Rabach as his starter and Lichtensteiger as his backup. For the most part, I'd agree. Rabach's strengths as a player have always been his ability to run and diagnose defensive fronts. That serves him very well in our scheme because he's going to get more help than he did in our old hybrid scheme.

If we're looking to upgrade our offensive line from last year, the huge difference will come from Trent Williams. Shanahan knew he had to stabilize the OT positions and I think he achieved that in fairly short order. If you want to see how important having a dominant LT in the running game is, watch some highlight videos of Peyton Hillis in 2008 and keep an eye on Ryan Clady. He's the man blocking at the PoA and most of the time he has to run quite far, block off, and release to the second level. The overall skillset to find a LT that can knock heads in a ZBS running game AND be an elite pass protector that can handle both speed and power on the edge is extremely rare and expensive. As I said in an earlier post, there might only be one or two prospects in this year's class that hit all those notes (DeMarcus Love is all I'm coming up with). Good thing we got Trent Williams when we did or else we might be waiting a couple years before we got our LT.

If we want to continue to upgrade our offensive line, I'd expect us to look for help at guard. Both Dockery and Hicks could certainly be upgraded at some point. I think you could see us spend a 5th round pick on someone like Clint Boling and look to bring him in by his second or third year.

[Going Commando]

I've just started watching for OL via college football games but if what you say is true about LT's then I'm glad the Skins got Williams when they did.

Pretty much. If Love and Carimi are the only first round OTs in the class, then there is a very slim chance we'd have been in position to draft either one of them and Carimi would have been a poor fit at LT for us anyway. In terms of plotting out how to spend our first round picks, I think we've done swimmingly the past two drafts. We got Orakpo when we had a shot at the best pass rusher in the class. We got Williams in a down QB year when he was the best overall LT in a class that will probably be the last stacked OT group for a few seasons. And now we're poised to take advantage of the historically strong QB groups in the next two draft classes without having to worry about filling those two expensive roster needs. It's a coherent team building strategy that has aligned with the strengths of the draft classes.

If you think about it, it shouldn't surprise us that OT might be weak this year. Position strengths are cyclical in draft classes. Remember that absurdly good WR class in 2007 where 6 got taken in the first round? It was sandwiched by classes in 2006 and 2008 where the only receiver who went in the first was Santonio Holmes. You find a similar pattern at RB from the 2008 class--five RBs went in the first round that year. Five RBs combined went in the first rounds of 2007 and 2009. The available RB talent still hasn't come back around to where it was in 2008 and I'd say it probably won't until next year.

We've had three feast years at OT in the first round in a row. In that time, 16 offensive tackles have been taken in the first round, six of them in the top 10. Of those tackles, probably 11 will end up settling into LT in the NFL. That's an extraordinarily high number of first round left tackle prospects coming out at once, especially when you count the second round prospects who'll eventually start like Sebastian Vollmer, William Beatty, and Charles Brown. Basically, over a third of the teams in the league filled the position during this span. It makes sense that we'll see a dip in available talent over the next year at least.

If teams are going to look at Potter at guard instead of RT, then his draft status could slip into a solidly 2nd round grade. My hope for Tackle is that we sign Brown to an extension and he can man that position for a few more years at a high level.

Well he'll have film at both positions so I don't think you can pigeonhole him anywhere yet. I agree with you, I don't think he's a LT. But if he's got a mauling sensibility to him, he could probably play RT for some teams. Personally, I'd look at him as a guard and that aligns with our needs. I probably wouldn't take a guard that high though unless it was Rodney Hudson or maybe Ben Ijalana. Either way, I doubt Potter comes out early. Offensive linemen seldom come out early, and interior linemen even less than tackles.

As for drafting 2 guards, it may not be realistic simply due to lack of draft picks and needs at other positions. I'd hope that the team could get a guard that is suited for the ZBS in free agency and draft a guard to replace Dockery. Dockery's contract was fashioned with only $8.2m guaranteed money so cutting him wouldn't be a great monetary loss or simply demote for depth as he is under contract until '13.

Yeah, FA will become a viable tool again this offseason and we should be able to find a serviceable starter somewhere. I don't think we should draft a guard early unless he's BPA by a good margin. But I'd be fine drafting one of the good prospects that slips into the late rounds much like Mitch Petrus did last season.

I see the OL class shaking down like this:

DeMarcus Love, Gabe Carimi, and possibly Mike Pouncey as the sole first round offensive linemen. Wisniewski, Pouncey, Hudson, Solder, Ijalana, Sherrod, and perhaps Castonzo and Barksdale as the second rounders (assuming Pouncey doesn't go in the first of course). O'Dowd, Baxter, Schilling, Boren, and Pinkston as the third tier going in the third and fourth rounds. And then a fourth tier of Ziemba, Cannon, Moffitt, and King getting taken after them.

[Oldskool]

FWIW latest waterfootball mock has us taking Allen Bailey, DE/DT, Miami in the 1st and Austin Pettis, WR, Boise State in the 2nd.

I can't see us using a 1st on a defensive player next year unless something catastrophic happens.

[Warpath11]

FWIW latest waterfootball mock has us taking Allen Bailey, DE/DT, Miami in the 1st and Austin Pettis, WR, Boise State in the 2nd.

I can't see us using a 1st on a defensive player next year unless something catastrophic happens.

If it is Allen Bailey I would have no problem using a first on him. At the mid to late first round he may very well be the BPA.

[Dukes and Skins]

I wanted to compile a post with links to the profiles I've done so far. Can you put something in the OP D&S with a similar format to what Forehead did last year? You could have one section of the OP linking to position rankings, big boards, and mock drafts. And then you could do a second section linking to player profiles.

Linebackers:

Robert Quinn

Travis Lewis

Chris Galippo

Sam Acho

Defensive Linemen:

Stephen Paea

Allen Bailey

Yeah steve I'll put those in the OP when I get back from class today sorry I've been a little behind on getting some of the stuff done.

[Going Commando]

FWIW latest waterfootball mock has us taking Allen Bailey, DE/DT, Miami in the 1st and Austin Pettis, WR, Boise State in the 2nd.

I can't see us using a 1st on a defensive player next year unless something catastrophic happens.

I actually think it's the opposite. Defense is the only thing I can see us spending our first round pick on. The only offensive position I think we might take in the first is quarterback and I don't think we're planning on taking a QB that high since we just traded for McNabb. Mike Shanahan has never taken a WR, HB, or TE in the first round of the draft. He's never taken an OG or OC in the first round either. He won't take an OT since we just drafted Trent Williams and he's had success finding RTs in later rounds.

That leaves defense. I could easily see us taking a cornerback if we pick high or a safety if we pick a little later. They are strong positions this year. And I think we'll draft a defensive lineman early. That's one of the reasons why I've been reading up so much on the front 7 players this year.

[Going Commando]

If it is Allen Bailey I would have no problem using a first on him. At the mid to late first round he may very well be the BPA.

I think that's fair. If we're picking in the teens, there's a very good chance that Quinn, Peterson, Amukamara, Locker, Ponder, Paea, and Clayborn could all be gone. To my thinking, that leaves Bailey, Jerrell Powe, and Rahim Moore as the best players left. I think I'd take Bailey over the other two although it'd be a tough choice. Each fill very large needs and each fit perfectly into our scheme.

Edit: But don't count out Bailey to climb quite a bit this season. He's a potential impact player and this will be his first season where he returns to mostly the same position he played the year before.

[Going Commando]

Yeah steve I'll put those in the OP when I get back from class today sorry I've been a little behind on getting some of the stuff done.

No worries, I definitely know how that goes. I'll keep churning out posts and evaluations. I've got about 20 more linebackers and linemen I want to profile for now and my goal is to do one a day.

[Oldskool]

I actually think it's the opposite. Defense is the only thing I can see us spending our first round pick on. The only offensive position I think we might take in the first is quarterback and I don't think we're planning on taking a QB that high since we just traded for McNabb. Mike Shanahan has never taken a WR, HB, or TE in the first round of the draft. He's never taken an OG or OC in the first round either. He won't take an OT since we just drafted Trent Williams and he's had success finding RTs in later rounds.

That leaves defense. I could easily see us taking a cornerback if we pick high or a safety if we pick a little later. They are strong positions this year. And I think we'll draft a defensive lineman early. That's one of the reasons why I've been reading up so much on the front 7 players this year.

Shanahan's drafting isn't a static thing. He never drafted a QB in the 1st until he broke the mold several years ago and took Foster in 2003 and then again with Cutler, so you simply cannot say that he would not draft a certain position.

What this team does will be wholly decided on how certain portions of the team perform; be it the OL, the DL, the QB, RB, secondary, etc. It is way to early to tell what this team's direction in the draft will be.

[Going Commando]

Shanahan's drafting isn't a static thing. He never drafted a QB in the 1st until he broke the mold several years ago and took Foster in 2003 and then again with Cutler, so you simply cannot say that he would not draft a certain position.

What this team does will be wholly decided on how certain portions of the team perform; be it the OL, the DL, the QB, RB, secondary, etc. It is way to early to tell what this team's direction in the draft will be.

Until he does break the mold so to speak, I think it's safer to predict he won't draft certain positions in the first. For instance, I'm very confident he would never take a RB, OC, or OG that high. He's drafted dozens of interior linemen and backs over the years . I could possibly see him taking a WR, I was completely wrong about his trend--he took Ashley Lelie in the first round in 2002 and Marcus Nash in 1998. I think we could very well see a Julio Jones, Michael Floyd, or Jonathan Baldwin first round pick. Maybe even A.J. Green if he loses his eligibility and drops like Dez Bryant did.

But Shanahan has spent lots of first round picks on defense over the years and there is a pattern there. He's taken multiple linemen and linebackers and with the exception of Jarvis Moss, he's had some outstanding success doing so. Al Wilson, John Mobley, and D.J. Williams were great picks and Trevor Pryce was a homerun. He's also taken two corners with mixed results: Deltha O'neal was very good for them for a number of years but Willie Middlebrooks was a complete bust.

If Devin Thomas has a good year, then I think it less likely we'll take a receiver early. If Kemo or Carriker struggle, I think it very likely we'll take a DL early. All in all, I think our needs on defense are more pressing for the long term because we got old in a hurry on that side of the ball, and Carlos and Rocky have yet to receive extensions.

[Oldskool]

Until he does break the mold so to speak, I think it's safer to predict he won't draft certain positions in the first. For instance, I'm very confident he would never take a RB, OC, or OG that high. He's drafted dozens of interior linemen and backs over the years . I could possibly see him taking a WR, I was completely wrong about his trend--he took Ashley Lelie in the first round in 2002 and Marcus Nash in 1998. I think we could very well see a Julio Jones, Michael Floyd, or Jonathan Baldwin first round pick. Maybe even A.J. Green if he loses his eligibility and drops like Dez Bryant did.

I can agree with you on the fact that I don't think that we'll ever see Shanny draft a RB in the first few rounds of the draft. Once his OL is in place, the RB's are simply plug and play extensions of the system.

As for the drafting of OL late, Shanahan back in the day was the HC/GM of one of the few teams that was running the ZBS. He had the luxury of taking players that were perfect for his scheme in the middle to late rounds that teams who ran power blocking schemes wouldn't touch. Off the top of my head, I can think of at least 8 teams that are running the same blocking scheme. He no longer has the luxury of taking these types of players in the 4th through 7th rounds.

Again this all has to do with what part of the team is the weakest at the end of the year. From everything that we've seen from Shanahan and how he drafted and went after players in FA and via trade, the OL seems to be his priority.

But Shanahan has spent lots of first round picks on defense over the years and there is a pattern there. He's taken multiple linemen and linebackers and with the exception of Jarvis Moss, he's had some outstanding success doing so. Al Wilson, John Mobley, and D.J. Williams were great picks and Trevor Pryce was a homerun. He's also taken two corners with mixed results: Deltha O'neal was very good for them for a number of years but Willie Middlebrooks was a complete bust.

If Devin Thomas has a good year, then I think it less likely we'll take a receiver early. If Kemo or Carriker struggle, I think it very likely we'll take a DL early. All in all, I think our needs on defense are more pressing for the long term because we got old in a hurry on that side of the ball, and Carlos and Rocky have yet to receive extensions.

All of this makes sense when you are dealing with a Shanahan team that has been established and isn't in a transition of adding talent to key positions. Honestly, at this point and most likely until the end of the year, I have no idea where they will go in either FA or the draft in 2011.

[Going Commando]

As for the drafting of OL late, Shanahan back in the day was the HC/GM of one of the few teams that was running the ZBS. He had the luxury of taking players that were perfect for his scheme in the middle to late rounds that teams who ran power blocking schemes wouldn't touch. Off the top of my head, I can think of at least 8 teams that are running the same blocking scheme. He no longer has the luxury of taking these types of players in the 4th through 7th rounds.

I disagree. With the exception of LTs, the ZBS linemen still drop in the draft. RT is becoming a bit more valuable these days, but Shanahan was still able to draft Ryan Harris in the third round as late as 2007. He got Chris Kuper in the 5th round in 2006. Mitch Petrus, who I viewed as a first rate ZBS guard was taken in the 5th round last year. NFL teams still value having a great speed/strength/size combination as the only thing worthy of a first and second round pick among linemen, particularly in the interior.

All of this makes sense when you are dealing with a Shanahan team that has been established and isn't in a transition of adding talent to key positions. Honestly, at this point and most likely until the end of the year, I have no idea where they will go in either FA or the draft in 2011.

Free Agency is a real wild card this offseason. It's going to be a huge class with a lot of highly regarded players available. But there is still too much uncertainty with the CBA situation to determine what we could realistically do in FA. I'd think that if we give Carlos a large extension then that's a signal we probably won't draft a CB in the first unless a very highly regarded one drops to us... assuming we don't have a top ten pick again.

[Hitman21ST]

What years are the WR and QB for Boise State? Their WR (#2, I can't remember his name) is looking like a solid draft pick.

[Oldskool]

I disagree. With the exception of LTs, the ZBS linemen still drop in the draft. RT is becoming a bit more valuable these days, but Shanahan was still able to draft Ryan Harris in the third round as late as 2007. He got Chris Kuper in the 5th round in 2006. Mitch Petrus, who I viewed as a first rate ZBS guard was taken in the 5th round last year. NFL teams still value having a great speed/strength/size combination as the only thing worthy of a first and second round pick among linemen, particularly in the interior.

The expansion of teams running the ZBS has been within the last 3 years or so, so really the jewel that he got at a discount was Ryan Harris in the 3rd, but his playing at Notre Dame also had a considerable impact on where he was drafted. I do agree with you that power blocking Centers and Guards will go before those that are better suited for the ZBS, but the heady days of finding late round picks that fit your scheme because no one else wanted them are gone.

Free Agency is a real wild card this offseason. It's going to be a huge class with a lot of highly regarded players available. But there is still too much uncertainty with the CBA situation to determine what we could realistically do in FA. I'd think that if we give Carlos a large extension then that's a signal we probably won't draft a CB in the first unless a very highly regarded one drops to us... assuming we don't have a top ten pick again.

I agree with you here. There is too much uncertainty and too many games to play to even be able to guess what will happen either in the draft or in FA.

[Oldskool]

What years are the WR and QB for Boise State? Their WR (#2, I can't remember his name) is looking like a solid draft pick.

QB Moore is a Junior.

WR's Austin Pettis and Titus Young are Seniors.

[Going Commando]

Dontay Moch, LB, Nevada

RS Senior, 6'1", 245 lbs.

Moch is a speed merchant, plain and simple, but the reason he’s such a great prospect is because he actually produces. When Moch gets drafted, he’ll become the fastest player in the NFL and one of the fastest in the history of the league. He was a 100 and 200 meter state champion in high school, and apparently he ran 40 yard dash times of 4.08 and 4.18 at a Nevada pro day last year: http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/24466/dontay-moch-non-aq-hybrid-defender I doubt he’ll run that fast at the combine, but what’s a conservative estimate for that kind of speed? A 4.35? Anyone who consistently runs a sub 4.3 second 40 yard dash at over 235 pounds deserves a look in the NFL. But Moch has also been extremely productive as a pass rusher the past two seasons. In 2008 and 2009, he is credited with 11.5 sacks, 15 TFL and 6.5 sacks, 20 TFL respectively. The sack total went down last year once he became the focus of attention, but 18 sacks and 35 TFL in two years as a starter ain’t bad at all. It gets better though. As you can see from that article I linked to, Nevada switched to a 3-4 defense this season and moved him back to linebacker. We’ll actually get to see him play his best NFL position--how he fares in coverage, playing off the line, and rushing while standing up.

vs. Missouri (2009): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gtsE4RxIt4

As you can see from this video, that Olympic speed translates to the field nicely. God he’s fast. That first step is one of the smoothest and most explosive I’ve ever seen and he plays with great pad level and lean when he flattens out on that edge. His initial step is so fast that he puts opposing tackles off balance with it alone as they try and compensate, allowing him to send them sprawling with a quick punch (2:15 mark). He’s a homing missile in pursuit and he’s got wonderful foot quickness. He can overpursue on his angles into the backfield and still stutter step back into position to make plays because of his speed. Those little stutter steps are a thing of beauty on his counter moves. I love the counter where he blows by the lineman and ends up stunting back inside to crush Blaine Gabbert at the 1:43 mark. His closing speed is as intense as you’d think it would be and he’s got such nice body control he can break down instantly and stick his hat in a ball carrier no matter how he’s coming in on the play. That tackle at the 3:13 second mark was a thing of beauty.

You can see that Moch reads his keys well from this video and isn’t easily fooled by Missouri’s tricky offense. He’s an intelligent player who plays with good awareness, evidenced by his high level of production. He has no trouble locating the ball ever, and he’s a demon in pursuit. His recovery speed is such that he could still make plays without ever having to make the correct reads, particularly at the college level. But he doesn’t rely on that quality to get his numbers. He’s a disciplined player. He rarely seems to break containment and he usually puts himself in position to make plays in pursuit when he flushes the QB from the pocket. I am very interested to see how he handles himself in coverage this year. He’s got the speed, balance, and fluidity to acquit himself very well in man coverage, and he can absolutely turn and run with any TE or RB at the NFL level. If he demonstrates good awareness and instincts in zone coverage, he could be a real headache for Ocs trying to peg him when he’s on the field.

Moch isn’t without his weaknesses as a prospect. It’s clear from this video that he isn’t the strongest of players. He doesn’t play with a lot of violence in his hand use, and has no bullrush to speak of. His motor also seems to run a bit hot and cold and he’ll get a bit passive when double teamed, although he will chase a quarterback across the field to keep the pressure on him. You see that in the video, even though Blaine Gabbert is quick as a deer too (rumored 4.5 speed). He doesn’t seem to have a lot of trouble disengaging, and is probably too fast and explosive for blockers to consistently latch onto. But he can get stoned on rushes where he takes sharper angles to the QB, particularly when doubled or chipped by a back. This happens at the 2:58 mark in the video. At 6'1", he’s not sporting ideal length for the position either. His arm extension is a bit lacking and he’ll have trouble beating explosive tackles to the punch. I doubt he’ll ever be a good stack and shed defender, and I wouldn’t trust him to set the edge against the run because a quick tackle could engulf him pretty easily. Still, despite lacking strength, he does a nice job of staying home and managing his blocker at the 2:45 mark and he keeps himself in position to make the play. And he is almost never taken off his feet. Maybe he could put on a little weight and settle into a role much like Rocky has playing OLB over the past several seasons.

What does he entail for us?

I’m a sucker for speed and Moch would certainly be the fastest player on our team. He’s smart and versatile and you can probably keep him on the field in most of your packages without selling the call. His range is unbelievable, with improved instincts and familiarity at the LB position, he’d become a nice chase defender racking up all kinds of tackles in pursuit. I think his motor, athleticism, and focus combine to make him a quality starting 34 OLB in the NFL and a legit threat to notch double digit sacks each season off the edge. The one big worry I’d have with him is other teams running at him at the PoA. We’ve got a rangy set of linebackers and we could walk any of our safeties up in run support, but it’s still a potential weakness in the scheme.

Another problem area could arise when Moch has to play against fleet left tackles who can keep him engaged. Nevada played him mostly at LE to exacerbate the speed mismatch against Mizzou’s RT, we’d probably need to play him on the strong side to do the same. That’s not too big a deal, but it means we’ll probably have to peg Brian Orakpo into a more specific role on the opposite side to compensate, which isn’t ideal. Moch could alleviate this problem by developing a larger set of rush moves, but he lacks the base and the length to generate a lot of power on contact and become a good bullrusher.

Speaking of Orakpo, he and Moch would form a terrifying edge rushing tandem that would be extremely difficult to counter. Short drops and quick strikes would be the only reliable solution I could think of and that would make life a lot easier on our secondary. The pass rushing alone makes Moch very valuable to us. If I had to predict his draft range, I’d say he’s probably a second round pick. He’s got top ten speed paired with a late round frame. The last prospect who was somewhat similar was Everette Brown from FSU, and he ended up slipping into the second round, although I don’t think he was as heavy as Moch, and he didn’t have any experience at OLB like Moch will. With a really good season, Moch will set all of the WAC pass rushing records and there is a slight chance he could climb into the first round, but I wouldn’t count on it. Thus I think there’s a good chance we’ll have a crack at Moch in the second round where he could be a very nice pick, particularly if paired with a great defensive line prospect in the first.