2011 Comprehensive NFL Draft Database

[Going Commando]

I think you hit the nail on the head here. Year after year, the closer it gets to QBs turning pro, the more reasons are stacked up why they won't be a good pro. Same thing happened last year, and the consensus from a lot of people ended up being, well, let's just wait until 2011, where the prospects are really good. And the same thing is happening again, hell, I saw a poster a few weeks back say we needed to wait on Barkley or Gilbert in 2013! Before Gilbert has even played a full season!

The reality is we are always going to find a pimple on these QBs when we start looking.

I don't know, I was definitely in the wait until next year for a QB group last season and I think I was right. Plainly, that was a weak class. Bradford was the only first round caliber QB and I still don't think he deserved to go in the top 10 because of his average arm strength and athletic ability, background in a spread option offense, lack of adversity faced during his college career ( he was hit less than 30 times), and the fact that he basically spent his entire final season on the sideline hurt. It was an awful class to take a QB; nearly as bad as 2007's. This year's class isn't very good either once you get past Jake Locker, but there are some extremely gifted and accomplished underclassmen out there like Luck, Gabbert, Foles, and Mallett. No they aren't finished products yet, but the level of progression they've already shown and their abundant natural talent suggests that each of them are first round caliber prospects and a couple of them could be top 10 picks when they come out. Since I think Mallett might be the only one who comes out early, simple math suggests that 2012 will be a stronger year than 2011 for QBs. That's with me already factoring in some draft attrition by discounting Pryor, Newton, and Brantley as first round picks before it's really fair to do so.

I agree that no QB prospect is ever very clean, especially when you compare them to stud prospects at easier positions to evaluate like linebacker or offensive tackle. As much as I like Blaine Gabbert, he's going to carry a ton of questions with him because of the offense he plays in. He hardly ever takes drops and when he does his footwork lacks urgency. He throws a lot of short passes and screens and lets his ball carriers do the work. Sometimes his deep passes get errant. He has a good release and throwing motion, but it's not nearly as quick as Andrew Luck's. He can also get a little sloppy in the pocket and looks much more brilliant making plays on the move right now. That's only occasionally though, I think he is miles ahead of most prospects in his pocket awareness and stature. My point is that he's got flaws and he will certainly take some time to develop in an NFL offense.

BUT, every prospect involves an evaluation of the tradeoff between their flaws and strengths. Sometimes the strengths are so spectacular you can ignore a laundry list of flaws like was the case with Bradford. He threw the ball so accurately, was smart, and was so good at going through progression reads that the Rams didn't care about anything else and picked him ahead of much better prospects like Gerald McCoy and Ndamukong Suh.

Gabbert's strengths are even more spectacular. He looks like he was made in the All-Madden QB factory. It's stupid how talented he is. He's 6'5 240 pounds, strong, fleet footed, strong-armed, smart, accurate, and credited for his leadership. Plus he's incredibly tough. Ndamukong Suh ****ed him up bad last year and Gabbert KEPT playing several games on a severe ankle sprain (you can see the play here, stick with it until the slow-mo end:

). Since those are the strengths you can't easily teach or develop and he's basically got them all, I'd say his pros far outweigh his cons. Thats how you have to tot up each of the QBs when you consider them.

I know I said I don't think those underclassmen QBs will come out this year, but I'm badly hoping Gabbert, Mallett, Foles, and Luck do. It works greatly to our advantage if they do. Throw them into the mix with Locker, and four or five stud QB prospects means some will slip into the late first and early second round. If we're picking late that means we'll have a crack at them. If we pick just outside the top ten, it means we could potentially draft a player like Adrian Clayborn and then trade back into the late first round using our second and a future pick to get Gabbert. Then we could sit him for three years while McNabb plays out the remainder of his career and he would be brought into the offense with an Aaron Rodgers like level of initial comfort.

Would they come out early? If there's a 2011 lockout it makes sense for Gabbert, Foles, and Mallett to do so. They'll finish their eligibility in a year with no draft. Sitting out from football for an entire year would be harmful to their draft stock since all their tape would be a year old compared to the fresh performances Andrew Lucks and Matt Barkleys. Now that I think about it, all four of those guys declaring early doesn't seem as far fetched as it once did. I would say a 2011 lockout is likely at this point. All that labor uncertainty ahead means that it's far too risky for these guys to stay for their senior years. Especially for Foles and Mallett who were transfers and had to sit out a year so they'll have already finished their degrees.

It's completely counterintuitive, but should Redskins fans be rooting for a lockout? I'd be willing to sacrifice a season of football if it meant we'd get our QB.

[The Tris]

It's completely counterintuitive, but should Redskins fans be rooting for a lockout? I'd be willing to sacrifice a season of football if it meant we'd get our QB.

Way ahead of you

This thread [edit: "Draft a QB for the future" thread] has me legitimately considering how beneficial the lockout next season could be to our rebuilding efforts. Instead of worrying about what we need to complete in 2011, we could truely focus on the BPA. We would basically be infusing our team with two years of young talent without worrying what the short term ramifications would be. It would be fantastic for our long term health.

It would also suck to not have football for 19 months.

[Conn]

It's completely counterintuitive, but should Redskins fans be rooting for a lockout? I'd be willing to sacrifice a season of football if it meant we'd get our QB.

Man, that's a tough one.

Also, I've been following your constant pimping of Gabbert, and it intrigues me that you're this high on him, as I respect your opinion on prospects very much; you put a lot of thought and analysis into them. Not to mention all of the tangible, as well as intangible, aspects of his play from what I've seen in your posts.

[Dukes and Skins]

Man, that's a tough one.

Also, I've been following your constant pimping of Gabbert, and it intrigues me that you're this high on him, as I respect your opinion on prospects very much; you put a lot of thought and analysis into them. Not to mention all of the tangible, as well as intangible, aspects of his play from what I've seen in your posts.

Simply put if Gabbert was playing in a Texas offense he'd be one of the top QB's in the nation but playing for Mizzou he's overshadowed. Steve did you see that McShay put Gabbert as his #4 QB?

[theboomking]

http://walterfootball.com/scoutsnotebook100914.php

QB Andrew Luck versus UCLA

Summary: Luck is a smooth, efficient QB that plays like a first round pick (though I didn't see a top 10 talent on tape). He has adequate mobility and athleticism to gain yardage with his legs. However, I am concerned with his shaky passing accuracy and he floated deep balls twice on the only couple where I remember his receiver wasn't wide open. Will be interesting to see if he improves as a passer as the year goes on - and I DO NOT mean statistically - I mean on the tape.

Akeem Ayers, (3-4 DE/OLB/ILB) UCLA versus Standford

Thanks for the breakdown, Oldskool. I just watched my DVR of Locker and Luck. I don't really like Locker. He can make some nice throws, and is obviously athletic, but Locker doesn't seem overly accurate, flutters the ball more than occasionally, locks down on his primary receiver, and isn't quick and decisive in making his reads and getting the ball out. I just don't see what everyone else does I guess.

Luck is a different matter. I liked his game against UCLA better than you did Oldskool. Luck missed some throws, but was generally accurate. Luc's mechanics look very good, and his arm strength adequate. What I really liked about him though is how smooth the offense seemed behind Luck. Watching the Locker offense is like watching the Redskins of the previous 7-8 years, stuttering,with no rhythm, and with an occasional nice play thrown in. Luck however looked very comfortable in the pocket. He would take the snap, read the defense, and quickly get rid of the ball. There was just a much nicer rhythm to watching him play. Secondarily, if we are also going to value Wins for a QB, you have to look at Luck favorably. I wouldn't be surprised to see Luck taken as the first QB off the board, perhaps with the first overall pick.

I don't know, I was definitely in the wait until next year for a QB group last season and I think I was right. Plainly, that was a weak class. Bradford was the only first round caliber QB and I still don't think he deserved to go in the top 10 because of his average arm strength and athletic ability, background in a spread option offense, lack of adversity faced during his college career ( he was hit less than 30 times), and the fact that he basically spent his entire final season on the sideline hurt. It was an awful class to take a QB; nearly as bad as 2007's. This year's class isn't very good either once you get past Jake Locker, but there are some extremely gifted and accomplished underclassmen out there like Luck, Gabbert, Foles, and Mallett. No they aren't finished products yet, but the level of progression they've already shown and their abundant natural talent suggests that each of them are first round caliber prospects and a couple of them could be top 10 picks when they come out. Since I think Mallett might be the only one who comes out early, simple math suggests that 2012 will be a stronger year than 2011 for QBs. That's with me already factoring in some draft attrition by discounting Pryor, Newton, and Brantley as first round picks before it's really fair to do so.

I completely disagree with you about Bradford. I think Bradford would be a top 10 QB in any class, and thus far, I like him a lot better than Luck, Gabbert, Locker etc. The only one of those that I think could challenge for a draft rating similar to Bradford's is Luck. Maybe you weigh Bradford's injury history more heavily than I do, but he has ridiculous accuracy, is plenty mobile, can read a defense, and was very productive with an offense much closer to a pro offense than what Gabbert plays in. Bradford has, "it", and is already looking pretty decent on a ST Louis team with a poor OL and a ridiculously crappy receiving corps.

Maybe I need to watch more Gabbert, but I don't see what you do. I know he is the physical prototype, but I'm not sure that that matters much. A good pro QB has to make decisions quickly and get the ball out quickly and accurately. 40 times are largely irrelevant, and I think that arm strength is a very overrated attribute. Gabbert has quite a long release, although it is fast. The offense he plays in is a very pure spread. Gabbert doesn't seem very comfortable moving within a pocket, seeming to constantly break the pocket when faced with pressure. He's just an impossible prospect to project. Maybe he'll be reat, and maybe he'll be a dud, but he'll need several years to develop, and you won't know what you are getting with him.

I'd really rather have Christian Ponder than Locker or Gabbert. I need to watch the OKlahoma game online, but from what I have seen thus far, Ponder has the best release in the draft, and is quite accurate. I'll post a more in depth evaluation when I get a chance to look at him more closely.

In watching the UCLA v Stanford game, I was also fairly impressed with Ayers. He plays with a lot of speed, and strikes the ball carrier rather than wrapping and dragging. I'm not sure that I thought he looked too stout when Stanford ran straight at him, as he seemed to play a bit lighter than his listed weight, and struggled with stacking and shedding. On the plus side, his LB instincts seemed excellent, as were his coverage skills. I wasn't too impressed with his pass rushing skills, but he doesn't seem featured in that role for UCLA.

If I had to peg a role for Ayers on our team, it would be as a coverage/pursuit OLB who could also be utilized as a pure speed rusher on third downs. He looks like he is going to time exceptionally well, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him challenge the excellent 10 yard split that Clay Matthews put up. I'd say that at this point, Ayers looks likely to go off the board in the teens or twenties. I'm not sure that I'd rather have him than Clayborn or Powe, but Clayborn will probably be off the board when we pick, and if the BPA fits a need, then you probably have to take him. That being said, Berry was rated higher on most boards than Williams, and I'm happy we went with the tackle.

[Going Commando]

Man, that's a tough one.

Also, I've been following your constant pimping of Gabbert, and it intrigues me that you're this high on him, as I respect your opinion on prospects very much; you put a lot of thought and analysis into them. Not to mention all of the tangible, as well as intangible, aspects of his play from what I've seen in your posts.

Thanks connskins26, it always is good to hear your analysis validated so that you don't end up feeling like a kook. I have been talking up Gabbert for a long time and I am very high on him as a prospect. He's such a rare player from the standpoint of physical skillset that he's going to be a treat for scouts to evaluate. Finally, you can watch a prospect that has every single tool. He doesn't have to compensate for anything as a player, tangibly or intangibly. All you have to do is teach him the offense and let him go. That's why I'm so excited about him. I loved Sanchez as a prospect but the arm strength and the size weren't really there, the maturity as a player. I liked not loved Bradford but he lacked the arm strength and functional strength, the physical toughness, and the resume of mental toughness and achievement being cast as THE man on a crappy team. I really liked Vince Young but we came to find out he wasn't very bright or emotionally mature and still struggles making progression reads and handling and NFL offense--needing to improvise and utilize his athleticism to be effective. I really liked Carson Palmer and still do. But he's not the same player he was before his knee was ruined.

For me, Gabbert doesn't carry any serious baggage as a prospect beyond the fact that he plays in a spread option offense--and that's something he can do nothing about right now. The NFL is reacting to the innovations of college game though. Teams are getting better at developing QBs with a spread background, and they are also utilizing spread concepts in their own offenses. It's not the scarlet letter it used to be.

Other than that, it's mostly fixable stuff with Gabbert that will organically improve with experience and NFL teaching. He'll eventually learn to go through his progressions more consistently and avoid staring down receivers on occasion. He'll learn how to take drops and run play action and be urgent with his feet. He'll learn how to time his deep passes better in the middle of the field. What he can already do is drive the ball to every single spot on the field, make spectacularly difficult throws with precision on the run, bowl defenders over with his speed and strength, take a bone crushing hit that would sideline Sam Bradford or Matt Stafford for weeks and pop right back up, fall into deadly rhythms and move his team down the field in clutch moments, and be THE MAN and the undisputed best player and leader on his team. Without Blaine Gabbert, Missouri would probably only win two or three games.

I would strongly encourage everyone to watch him along with me because, even if he never pans out as a decent prospect, he's just plain fun to see. Nick Foles is another guy that's fun to watch albeit for different reasons. This is actually a great weekend to watch him because Arizona plays Iowa and that's a very tough match-up with several very good prospects in it.

[Dukes and Skins]

Thanks connskins26, it always is good to hear your analysis validated so that you don't end up feeling like a kook. I have been talking up Gabbert for a long time and I am very high on him as a prospect. He's such a rare player from the standpoint of physical skillset that he's going to be a treat for scouts to evaluate. Finally, you can watch a prospect that has every single tool. He doesn't have to compensate for anything as a player, tangibly or intangibly. All you have to do is teach him the offense and let him go. That's why I'm so excited about him. I loved Sanchez as a prospect but the arm strength and the size weren't really there, the maturity as a player. I liked not loved Bradford but he lacked the arm strength and functional strength, the physical toughness, and the resume of mental toughness and achievement being cast as THE man on a crappy team. I really liked Vince Young but we came to find out he wasn't very bright or emotionally mature and still struggles making progression reads and handling and NFL offense--needing to improvise and utilize his athleticism to be effective. I really liked Carson Palmer and still do. But he's not the same player he was before his knee was ruined.

For me, Gabbert doesn't carry any serious baggage as a prospect beyond the fact that he plays in a spread option offense--and that's something he can do nothing about right now. The NFL is reacting to the innovations of college game though. Teams are getting better at developing QBs with a spread background, and they are also utilizing spread concepts in their own offenses. It's not the scarlet letter it used to be.

Other than that, it's mostly fixable stuff with Gabbert that will organically improve with experience and NFL teaching. He'll eventually learn to go through his progressions more consistently and avoid staring down receivers on occasion. He'll learn how to take drops and run play action and be urgent with his feet. He'll learn how to time his deep passes better in the middle of the field. What he can already do is drive the ball to every single spot on the field, make spectacularly difficult throws with precision on the run, bowl defenders over with his speed and strength, take a bone crushing hit that would sideline Sam Bradford or Matt Stafford for weeks and pop right back up, fall into deadly rhythms and move his team down the field in clutch moments, and be THE MAN and the undisputed best player and leader on his team. Without Blaine Gabbert, Missouri would probably only win two or three games.

I would strongly encourage everyone to watch him along with me because, even if he never pans out as a decent prospect, he's just plain fun to see. Nick Foles is another guy that's fun to watch albeit for different reasons. This is actually a great weekend to watch him because Arizona plays Iowa and that's a very tough match-up with several very good prospects in it.

That Iowa and Arizona matchup is going to be great to watch, especially to see how Foles will do against a very good Iowa defense. It will also be very interesting to see how Clayborn does and if he can also make some big plays against the Arizona OL, which is decent but not a top notch OL

[The Tris]

@sgorten: #UM coach Randy Shannon and #Canes DE Allen Bailey say Bailey might play some DT because of injuries on D-line.

Should be very interesting to see how he performs.

[Going Commando]

@sgorten: #UM coach Randy Shannon and #Canes DE Allen Bailey say Bailey might play some DT because of injuries on D-line.

Should be very interesting to see how he performs.

He's better when he plays inside, but I think this is a case in point demonstration of how much of a moron Randy Shannon is. Allen Bailey is his best defender, probably the best player on his team. And yet Shannon STILL yanks him around like some walk-on freshman in reaction to the whatever sort of roster issue comes along. That's the Greg Blache philosophy of roster management--make your impact players mediocre by playing them out of position because their level of mediocre is higher than what another, lesser, players might be.

Now in this instance, the move suits Bailey because he's a better 3 technique than he is a 7 and 9 technique. But he should be playing there anyway, and the other moves he's had to make throughout his time there haven't always been so fortuitous.

[Dukes and Skins]

@sgorten: #UM coach Randy Shannon and #Canes DE Allen Bailey say Bailey might play some DT because of injuries on D-line.

Should be very interesting to see how he performs.

Interesting but like Steve said he's better playing on the inside of the DL. Last year him and Forston were absolute monsters for that DL. I think if he performs well at the DT spot it'll further prove he can handle the job as a DE in the 3-4

[darrelgreenie]

Question for Boom, Bullit, Duke, Martin C, Oldskool, Tris, and the other regulars in this thread that i've missed.

Would you guys be interested in charting the passes of the different QBs in a fashion similiar to what Oldskool posted on Luck?

http://walterfootball.com/scoutsnotebook100914.php

Martin C and myself have charted Colt McCoy last year and it was quite eye opening.

It would be interesting to compare notes with each other to see if everyone is seeing the same thing.

[Dukes and Skins]

Question for Boom, Bullit, Duke, Martin C, Oldskool, Tris, and the other regulars in this thread that i've missed.

Would you guys be interested in charting the passes of the different QBs in a fashion similiar to what Oldskool posted on Luck?

http://walterfootball.com/scoutsnotebook100914.php

Martin C and myself have charted Colt McCoy last year and it was quite eye opening.

It would be interesting to compare notes with each other to see if everyone is seeing the same thing.

Sounds good to me, I may miss a couple of games because of college work but anytime I can chart some throws and opinions I will post them up. I'll try to focus on the East Coast QB's because then I don't have to stay up until 10 PM or so

[The Tris]

I'm still toying with the idea of going to Athens this weekend, but regardless, the UGA games replay several times down here, so I would be happy to take a stab at charting Mallett this weekend or next week when the game replays. Not a great defense, but they do play an attacking 3-4.

[darrelgreenie]

Sounds good to me, I may miss a couple of games because of college work but anytime I can chart some throws and opinions I will post them up. I'll try to focus on the East Coast QB's because then I don't have to stay up until 10 PM or so

I think we should all pick the same game.

And wait to post the break downs until everyone is ready.

I'm still toying with the idea of going to Athens this weekend, but regardless, the UGA games replay several times down here, so I would be happy to take a stab at charting Mallett this weekend or next week when the game replays. Not a great defense, but they do play an attacking 3-4.

Go to Athens!

I used to live in ATL and went to Athens for a weekend class.

Athen's is awesome and the chicas are top notch.

Wait what were we talking about?

[The Tris]

Go to Athens!

I used to live in ATL and went to Athens for a weekend class.

Athen's is awesome and the chicas are top notch.

I am stilling waiting to hear if I can go up to Lake Rabun this weekend instead. Perfect wknd for lake as this is relatively slow cfb wknd, and skins play late game so I have time to get home on Sun.

I have been to many UGA games since I have been down here, with this year being my 4th football season. I love Athens, though it sucks that I no longer know people who live there. This might be the first year I miss don't make at least one game as my fall schedule is pretty loaded with CFB:

Oct 9th: UVA @ GT (UVA alum)

Oct 16th: Ole Miss @ Bama (dating a bammer)

Nov 6th: Ark @ USC (sister is a game****)

Oct 30th: UGA vs UF (bachelor party)

Nov 20th: UT @ Vandy (why? b/c I have 50 yard lines at LP Field the next day)

I love living in the south.

[Dukes and Skins]

I think we should all pick the same game.

And wait to post the break downs until everyone is ready.

Go to Athens!

I used to live in ATL and went to Athens for a weekend class.

Athen's is awesome and the chicas are top notch.

Wait what were we talking about?

Sounds good to me then if we just pick one game to watch. Again I'll try to have it done asap with whatever game we pick

[Going Commando]

The Georgia--Arkansas seems to be the consensus choice and it definitely sounds like a good game to watch. We can chart Mallett's passes. Do you all think they'll post this game online on the SEC network just in case not all of us can watch it? My weekend schedules are usually pretty iffy and I doubt a georgia/arkansas matchup will be my regional broadcast anyway.

Another guy to pay attention to that game is DeMarcus Love. I think he might be this year's elite OT prospect and it'll be good to see him in action. From what I've read he projects great into a ZBS, especially at RT which could be a need for us this offseason.

[Going Commando]

Thanks for the breakdown, Oldskool. I just watched my DVR of Locker and Luck. I don't really like Locker. He can make some nice throws, and is obviously athletic, but Locker doesn't seem overly accurate, flutters the ball more than occasionally, locks down on his primary receiver, and isn't quick and decisive in making his reads and getting the ball out. I just don't see what everyone else does I guess.

I think Locker has been a little slower in his progression as a player than people expected. He made such huge gains between his sophomore and junior years, I think people expected him to grow at a similar rate between last year and this year. In retrospect, that probably isn't reasonable. I'm not sure Locker is the top ten lock he's made out to be. When I first watched him last year, it was around this time in the season and well before the hype machine had picked up on him. I had no other evaluations of him to go on beyond what I saw with my own eyes. I liked, not loved him as a prospect, and thought he'd go somewhere in the late first round. He's improved his draft stock since then. But I don't know if it's enough to solidify him as a top ten pick. First off, Locker is a very strong guy, but his arm strength is not elite. It's above average and I think it's a good bit stronger than Bradford's was, but I'd say it's a Matt Ryan style arm--good not great velocity, spins it inconsistently. There are potentially much, much better arms in the class. He's an elite athlete, but he also needs to pair that with strong passing skills to be effective at all in the NFL. Don't discount the fact that he plays on an untalented team in a conservative WCO for haulting his development somewhat. But he should be farther along in his progression ability than he is right now. He looks too deliberate and we saw how that eventually led to the downfall of Jason Campbell. I certainly think Locker could succeed in our offense. He's far tougher and more talented than Matt Schaub. By all accounts, he's got an amazing set of intangibles. Kyle Shanahan and Matt LeFleur are gurus of QB development. But I think there are better prospects out there than Locker.

Luck is a different matter. I liked his game against UCLA better than you did Oldskool. Luck missed some throws, but was generally accurate. Luc's mechanics look very good, and his arm strength adequate. What I really liked about him though is how smooth the offense seemed behind Luck. Watching the Locker offense is like watching the Redskins of the previous 7-8 years, stuttering,with no rhythm, and with an occasional nice play thrown in. Luck however looked very comfortable in the pocket. He would take the snap, read the defense, and quickly get rid of the ball. There was just a much nicer rhythm to watching him play. Secondarily, if we are also going to value Wins for a QB, you have to look at Luck favorably. I wouldn't be surprised to see Luck taken as the first QB off the board, perhaps with the first overall pick.

I know what you mean about the inability to find rhythms. It's something you only pick up from watching the games and it's a big reason for why I didn't like Jimmy Clausen last year despite the fact that he put up good numbers. Basically, in crucial moments, he didn't make plays and he kept teams around when his offense should have paced them. But I think you are overestimating Luck's performance and development. I tend to agree with Matt McGuire here, I'd be very surprised if Luck comes out this year and gets taken ahead of Locker. I agree with the assessment that Luck is more of a game manager than anything else at this point. His completion % is too low right now to predict him comfortably as an NFL QB and I think he's got legitimate accuracy issues that might stem from the way he sets and releases the ball. Rob Staton first put me on to this in his evaluation. Watch how it comes out and has a downward action--he sends his receivers diving for the ball too often negating longer gains. Plus he does the same sorts of things you picked up from Locker--floats passes, stares down receivers. He's neither as fast nor strong as Locker is and few prospects have compared to Locker in toughness. Blazing fast release or no, I don't see too many reasons to rank Luck ahead of Locker right now. This could change of course. Luck is only a redshirt sophomore after all.

I completely disagree with you about Bradford. I think Bradford would be a top 10 QB in any class, and thus far, I like him a lot better than Luck, Gabbert, Locker etc. The only one of those that I think could challenge for a draft rating similar to Bradford's is Luck. Maybe you weigh Bradford's injury history more heavily than I do, but he has ridiculous accuracy, is plenty mobile, can read a defense, and was very productive with an offense much closer to a pro offense than what Gabbert plays in. Bradford has, "it", and is already looking pretty decent on a ST Louis team with a poor OL and a ridiculously crappy receiving corps.

I don't know, Bradford looked pretty bad Sunday. He threw 55 passes but for about 4 yards an attempt. Plus he threw three interceptions. I understand he had a good preseason game against the Patriots, but come on, it's the preseason. I find Bradford's work volume in week one troubling to say the least. The Rams have thrown him into the deep end of a bad situation in the middle of an ownership change just so they could sell some tickets. Few quarterbacks could succeed in that kind of situation. I think he'll bust.

But back to the reasons why I didn't think he was a great prospect, it's not so much that I think that particular injury will affect his future in the NFL, it's more how he was injured. He hurt and then re-hurt his shoulder on two completely routine sacks. Understand he NEVER faced any significant form of adversity as a QB before those injuries. Except maybe in the national championship game against Florida. For the most part, his runners always carved up defenses, his receivers always got 5 yards of separation, his offensive line always crushed their matchups and he never got hit. It's not encouraging that the very first time his offensive line broke down he suffered and injury on a routine play that basically put him out for the entire year. It's not just Bradford's arm strength that I questioned, it's his overall strength and fortitude. He's just not a very strong guy and I don't think he can take a beating. Toughness is one of the most underrated qualities to evaluate in a quarterback and I think Bradford lacks it. It's something I didn't realize before, and it's probably a mistake I made in my evaluation of Mark Sanchez who was in a similar situation of never facing on-field adversity or taking hits.

I also don't think Bradford has "it" from an intangibles and leadership perspective. He's a smart, thoughtful guy with a calm demeanor. But he comes off as milquetoast when he interviews and perhaps a little hesitant--not the alpha male type you want out of your QB. On a talented team, I think Bradford could be fine just doing his thing; having fun and making plays, letting his stars and leaders do their things; fitting somewhere in the middle as the talented and likeable QB. But on a team where he has to be the man like the Rams, and where everyone will look to him for leadership when things are going awful, I'm not sure that's a role he can handle. He's got a little too much Eli Manning beta dog in him for my taste. And even that's being a bit generous for a comparison because Eli actually had to put a crap college team on his back and carry them to success.

Maybe I need to watch more Gabbert, but I don't see what you do. I know he is the physical prototype, but I'm not sure that that matters much. A good pro QB has to make decisions quickly and get the ball out quickly and accurately. 40 times are largely irrelevant, and I think that arm strength is a very overrated attribute. Gabbert has quite a long release, although it is fast. The offense he plays in is a very pure spread. Gabbert doesn't seem very comfortable moving within a pocket, seeming to constantly break the pocket when faced with pressure. He's just an impossible prospect to project. Maybe he'll be reat, and maybe he'll be a dud, but he'll need several years to develop, and you won't know what you are getting with him.

Yes, I think you should watch both Gabbert and Foles in a full game setting to get a good sense of them as players. A lot of QBs look much better in their highlights than they actually are (see: Jimmy Clausen). Other QBs don't really pop in their highlights (Donovan McNabb) and both Gabbert and Foles fall into this category. You need to see the context of the game with them and get a sense of moment to see what all the fuss is about. For instance, Gabbert’s numbers from the Illinois game don’t jump out at you but he led some clutch second half drives to come back. Missouri looked really bad and Gabbert was getting popped. I thought they were down and out at first but Gabbert rallied his team to for a tough win in a rivalry contest. And I haven’t see the game yet, but from what I understand, Gabbert looked unstoppable against McNeese St, completing his first fifteen passes in a row and the game was over before it had hardly started. Missouri scored touchdowns on it's first four drives and they took Gabbert out near the beginning of the third quarter.

That’s what I mean by him having the ability to get into deadly rhythms. It’s something the great QBs like Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger can do. At some point, you just know that there is no stopping them and that they’re going make fantastic plays no matter what a defense throws their way. I defnitely think both Gabbert and Foles have this quality. In fact, I’d say Gabbert actually compares to Roethlisberger in a lot of ways–college spead Qbs, big arms, tall, very strong. Gabbert is better though. He’s smarter, faster, and mentally and emotionally stable. He’s got “it” like you say about Bradford. Listen to him speak to the media and he already sounds just like Mike Shanahan; he must be majoring in coach-speak. He is like a quarterbacking robot built by NFL coaches. And all of this becomes even more impressive when you realize the guy is only 19 or 20 years old. He’s younger than Andrew Luck! So he’ll either enter the NFL as a 20 or 21 year old rookie with two or three full years of starts under his belt. Even if we drafted him and sat him for three seasons before playing him, he’d still only be about 23 or 24 years old. That’s how old most QBs are when they enter the league as rookies.

Also, I think arm strength is actually underrated by draftniks as an attribute now. It became so overrated by the time Kyle Boller was drafted and struggled that it then swung around and became underrated. We saw Alex Smith and Matt Leinart get highly regarded despite having inadequate arm strength. Part of the reason they hurt their teams is the holes in their passing repertoire. It’s important to be able to drive the ball to every part of the field because NFL protection sucks now. Pass rushers have the leg up on NFL linemen right now because no team can keep the same group of linemen together for more than a year or two any more. Time was, you’d see the same starting five together for years in well over half the league. The best weapons a QB has against the instability of their protection is mobility to extend plays and arm strength to hit their receivers even when their timing is interrupted. God, as great as he is, even Peyton Manning’s arm gets shaky and exposed when he doesn’t have good protection and time to set up his throws. He looked like crap in the second half of the Superbowl for this very reason–he had no ability to deal with the pressure he faced on his own and Indy’s offense was completely shut down. Aaron Rodgers is the new breed of elite NFL QB. Gabbert’s physical tools are special. His speed and bullishness and arm strength cannot simply be ignored or written off as being attributes overrated for projecting future success. It’s not the whole picture, but I think it’s a very important part. And those aren’t all Gabbert’s got. He’s also a stunningly accurate passer on some of the most difficult and highly regarded throws (deep outs and comebacks) and he's got solid touch, anticipation, and feel for throwing to each part of the field. He’s a good decision maker, he’s incredibly tough, hardworking, and he’s a good leader with a clutch attitude.

I'd really rather have Christian Ponder than Locker or Gabbert. I need to watch the OKlahoma game online, but from what I have seen thus far, Ponder has the best release in the draft, and is quite accurate. I'll post a more in depth evaluation when I get a chance to look at him more closely.

I don't think you'll feel the same way after you see how Ponder played against Oklahoma. It's important never to react too strongly to a single game one way or the other. But it's fairly safe to say Ponder severely hurt his draft stock in that game and crushed all the momentum he had going as a potential top ten pick. Ponder was simply exposed. He looked inaccurate, his decision making was awful, and he showed a pointed lack of arm strength. Ponder shot up from mid round consideration last year based on great performances in what comes down to probably just 3 or 4 games before he got hurt. Then he comes in this year and has a fantastic game against Samford. But let's be honest, it was Samford, they aren't even any good as an FCS school. I love Ponder's intelligence, work ethic, running ability, and mechanical polish in a west coast scheme. But I just don't think he is that talented and he hasn't performed consistently excellent over an extended period of time. His situation kind of reminds me of Sean Canfield's from last year. Remember how much of a wild card he was during the year? He had a really nice stretch run where he was completing everything and Oregon State was exceeding expectations. People were seriously talking about him as a first, early second round QB. Then the harsh, revealing light of the pre-draft process exposed him as a middling talent and he fell on draft day. I'd take a number of players ahead of Ponder. Hell, I'd probably even draft Mallett ahead of Ponder even though I can't really stand to listen to him.

[Dukes and Skins]

The Georgia--Arkansas seems to be the consensus choice and it definitely sounds like a good game to watch. We can chart Mallett's passes. Do you all think they'll post this game online on the SEC network just in case not all of us can watch it? My weekend schedules are usually pretty iffy and I doubt a georgia/arkansas matchup will be my regional broadcast anyway.

Another guy to pay attention to that game is DeMarcus Love. I think he might be this year's elite OT prospect and it'll be good to see him in action. From what I've read he projects great into a ZBS, especially at RT which could be a need for us this offseason.

Thats my worry as well Steve, Being in Harrisonburg I don't think I'll be able to see the game unless its online. As for Love, he's been skyrocketing up boards so far with how he's looked. Just been an absolute monster from all reports.

[The Tris]

I believe GT-UNC will be raycom in ACC country, so UGA-ARK should be nationally televised on ESPN.

http://lsufootball.net/tvschedule.htm

I see nothing about regional coverage of this game on ESPN, so I assume its national:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?page=coveragemaps2010

We should also take a look at Justin Houston, OLB for UGA. Kid's a stud. If we're all watching the same game, lets make sure we have a solid list of people to watch out for.

[Dukes and Skins]

I believe GT-UNC will be raycom in ACC country, so UGA-ARK should be nationally televised on ESPN.

http://lsufootball.net/tvschedule.htm

I see nothing about regional coverage of this game on ESPN, so I assume its national:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?page=coveragemaps2010

We should also take a look at Justin Houston, OLB for UGA. Kid's a stud. If we're all watching the same game, lets make sure we have a solid list of people to watch out for.

So far we have

DeMarcus Love

Ryan Mallett

Justin Houston

I'll add 2 guys I want to look out for

TE D.J. Williams for Arkansas

OT Clint Boling for Georgia

[Conn]

stevemcqueen,

Thanks for responding in such detail, to me and others, throughout this thread. Especially on the QB's.

Your write-ups on Gabbert on this page, and in the past, are incredibly positive. And yet you acknowledge his current faults with honesty, making the positive comments that much more believable.

He sounds like a prototype NFL Franchise QB straight out of Madden: Mobility and power, some speed, great arm, height and size, leadership abilities, media competence, and YOUTH. Incredible youth for such a seemingly complete package, from your descriptions.

Its time that I looked up some of his highlight vids (even though you admit that highlight vids don't do a QB like him justice). Any recommendations?

[Going Commando]

In watching the UCLA v Stanford game, I was also fairly impressed with Ayers. He plays with a lot of speed, and strikes the ball carrier rather than wrapping and dragging. I'm not sure that I thought he looked too stout when Stanford ran straight at him, as he seemed to play a bit lighter than his listed weight, and struggled with stacking and shedding. On the plus side, his LB instincts seemed excellent, as were his coverage skills. I wasn't too impressed with his pass rushing skills, but he doesn't seem featured in that role for UCLA.

If I had to peg a role for Ayers on our team, it would be as a coverage/pursuit OLB who could also be utilized as a pure speed rusher on third downs. He looks like he is going to time exceptionally well, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him challenge the excellent 10 yard split that Clay Matthews put up. I'd say that at this point, Ayers looks likely to go off the board in the teens or twenties. I'm not sure that I'd rather have him than Clayborn or Powe, but Clayborn will probably be off the board when we pick, and if the BPA fits a need, then you probably have to take him. That being said, Berry was rated higher on most boards than Williams, and I'm happy we went with the tackle.

Ayers is an intriguing prospect but he's kind of hard to peg. He is very fast and he's one of the hardest hitters in college. He's got really good coverage instincts and he has soft hands, makes a lot of big plays. His motor also looks nice and he plays strong. You mention that he looks lighter than his listed weight, I noticed that too and I think that's because he's such a high cut player. He's lanky like Eric Berry was and I worry that might make him a little stiff hipped. He's got a lot of experience playing SAM though, so you'd think he can't be but so awkward. And he does a really good job dropping back into his zone and reading the backfield so he has to have some balance and fluidity in coverage or else he's the luckiest linebacker in the world to accumulate all those interceptions. I think you are right that UCLA might not feature him as a pass rusher even though he gets quite a few snaps at DE. UCLA moves him all around the field. Speed rushing is one of the things he does best, but I'd be curious to see if he's got any other moves.

Something about Ayers bothers me as a player though. He's a great hitter but he's not a particularly good tackler, especially if you project him inside in a 3-4 front. He goes for collision tackles and doesn't consistently wrap up. I've seen him bounce off ball carriers and let them continue for yards and I'm not sure he's got the body control to hit for the ball-carrier's outside leg. Figuring out his best fit in the NFL is going to be tough because I question a couple of his abilities to play various LB spots. He's got good instincts and brilliant size, but there's that tackling problem so I'd be a bit uncomfortable with him at ILB. He's got the size and frame to be a king sized OLB, but I don't think he plays with the strength you'd expect from a prospect that big. He's got a skinny base and I wouldn't trust him to consistently set the edge as an OLB. Plus I don't know how far along he is in learning to use his hands well to control blockers. I think you are right that he's much more comfortable when used in pursuit.

I think Ayers fits in best as a blitzing ILB in a 3-4 front. I love his speed, height, play-making instinct, and the physicality he plays with but I think he is very raw right now and I don't think that he could start for us next season. It'd be nice to have a legitimate pass rushing thumper in the middle of our defense, but Dont'a Hightower is probably a better value in that role. Plus, after last Sunday's game, I'm very, very enthusiastic about Rocky McIntosh's future in the middle of our defense. Did anyone realize how strong Rocky is before? I'd always thought of him as more of a speed guy but he's not. He played SAM in college and was a good blitzer. He had 9.5 sacks, 32 TFL, and 9 additional pressures at Miami, which is something i'd never realized before. Plus, like Deangelo, I think Rocky has a flair for the big play which not a lot of our defenders have. I really hope he gets an extension this offseason. I think we should make re-signing him, McNabb, Carlos, and Jammal Brown our priorities in FA this offseason although the coming lockout might make things dicey on that front. If money is going to be an object, I'd rather retain all four of those guys and then use the draft than bring in anyone new and expensive.

So I guess what I'm saying is that I don't think ILB is a very big need for us, especially if Perry Riley becomes a factor. I wouldn't spend a first round pick on one since I'm not sure they'd be able to see the field any time soon. I don't really like Ayers' fit on the outside all that much and I'd probably rather draft someone like Von Miller as a pure rusher if I was looking for an OLB in the teens to twenties range. We should probably have better options available to us in the first round.

And BTW, Trent Williams was definitely the right pick ahead of Berry although I think we still could have done well taking Berry in the first round and then Charles Brown in the second if we'd retained that pick. But we didn't, and I think we got a legit, impact LT and those are more valuable than gold. Besides, Williams was probably ranked immediately after Berry on our draft board so it's not like we gave up much overall value focusing on positional value over BPA. CBS had Berry ranked 4th, Okung 5th, and Williams 6th overall. The Cowboys had Okung ranked 4th, Williams 5th, and Berry 6th. I doubt we had our board configured much differently, I bet it went:

1.) Bradford/Suh

2.) Bradford/Suh

3.) McCoy

4.) Berry

5.) Williams

Friggin' A it feels good to have what looks like a long term fix at the LT position. It feels good to be able to talk about drafting a stud defender in the first round and not feel a sense of dread about our pass protection. We've covered two of our most important bases the past two years in drafting a LT and rush LB that each have multi pro-bowl potential. The secondary is super talented and the interior linebackers are good. We've got a good foundation to build on for the next few seasons.

[Dukes and Skins]

So far in the Arkansas and Georgia game, Ryan Mallett has looked pretty impressive. The delivery is still elongated but a lot better than what it was in the past. Arkansas is starting to run more of a pro-style but still a spread in many aspects. As a side note I know he's only a freshman and he's being thrown into the fire, but Aaron Murray has a bright future ahead of him.

The thing that really has stood out to me is that he doesn't get rattled under pressure he had a couple of times where he was almost sacked and then was able to avoid the sack and scramble for yards including a big run where he avoided a safety and was able to pick up 14 yards. I loved the comment that was just made too by one of the ESPN announcers. He said this " With Mallett he can carry his team because of the aerial passing game but with Murray he has no running game to help him". I'll definitely need to keep an eye on Murray for the next 3 years to see how he progresses and develops because remember a few years ago in Georgia another freshman QB named Matthew Stafford was thrown into the fire and ended up helping him so much as he learned quickly and was able to pick up terminology and different things. That's what I think might happen with Murray by him starting this early but we will see, and in no way I'm saying Murray will be Stafford I'm just comparing the situations

[Dukes and Skins]

As this game has continued though Mallett has started to struggle not from pressure but just making sloppy passes. He's now just airmailing everything or hitting the ground behind the receiver. Not looking good right now and who he is starting to remind me of is Jason Campbell. A guy with a big arm but bad accuracy a elongated release.

Just a sloppy game now both ways with too many penalties and nothing going right either way

As another side note has anyone been watching the Maryland vs WVU game? From the throws and highlights I've seen of Geno Smith he's been looking very good today. A guy with a big arm and decent accuracy who is pretty mobile. Could be a development guy we take late to work on