2011 Comprehensive NFL Draft Database

[Oldskool]

The one weakness that constantly showed up for me was the DL. I think right now we have to have our eyes on Allen Bailey and Clayborn. If we are able to add another pick or two during the draft and can get Bailey along with another 5 tech and a NT we'll be set because honestly the rest of the D looked good(save Doughty who was playing out of place again).

I would love to see us do something like this

1. Allen Bailey

2nd round pick Steven Paea(Walterfootball has him as a 2nd round pick right now so that's led to me putting him here.)

5th Christian Ballard DE from Iowa had 5.5 sacks last year opposite of Clayborn

You can't honestly say that the OL played well last night. In fact, they played worse than the DL did. A solid NT would solve many problems on the defensive side of the ball, but the team also needs a center and a guard (possibly 2) next year either in FA or the draft.

[Dukes and Skins]

You can't honestly say that the OL played well last night. In fact, they played worse than the DL did. A solid NT would solve many problems on the defensive side of the ball, but the team also needs a center and a guard (possibly 2) next year either in FA or the draft.

I felt that when the starting OL was in there they were playing well. When they put Heyer and Lictensteiger in things went down hill. Just my personal opinion but I didn't focus a great deal on the OL. But when Williams Dockery Rabach Hicks and Brown were on the field they looked solid. Not great but solid

[whlinder]

I wrote a lot last year about how Locker had tons of skills and was screwed by being forced to play with crap talent around him... well that is still somewhat true (though he does have decent RBs and WRs now) but I would not want to draft him. He doesn't have "It". He cannot take hold of a team and make them believe in him and lead them to wins. I see nothing out of Washington where he has complete command of the team. He also seems to be dumb. He has all the physical skills of John Elway/Steve Young, but does not have the It factor nor the football IQ.

(Bizarrely I feel like Locker has lost a step and seems to be a touch slower this year, but he has not had any success running the ball through 2 games both scrambling and on designed runs)

Another thing is that Sarkisian is dumb. He has shown nothing as a head coach.

Watched both Husky games this year in their entirety. He's up to 9-21 as a starter now.

[Warpath11]

I felt that when the starting OL was in there they were playing well. When they put Heyer and Lictensteiger in things went down hill. Just my personal opinion but I didn't focus a great deal on the OL. But when Williams Dockery Rabach Hicks and Brown were on the field they looked solid. Not great but solid

I agree especially in pass protection, I though the group was pretty solid in pass pro against a pretty damn good pass rushing team. Run blocking on the other hand left a lot to be desired. I recall one play where Hicks was trying to pull ahead of Portis, but all he accomplished was to get in the way of Portis thus slowing him down (and not throwing a block on anyone). We need a guard that will be through that hole and on to the second level before our RB reaches the hole (maybe Portis was not patient enough but to me it seemed on Hicks in that particular pull).

[Laron Burgundy]

You can't honestly say that the OL played well last night. In fact, they played worse than the DL did. A solid NT would solve many problems on the defensive side of the ball, but the team also needs a center and a guard (possibly 2) next year either in FA or the draft.

Lucky for us C and G can typically be found later in the draft. Great NT are almost exclusively first rounders. And as it currently is, there are very few dominant 5 techs. If I had to list them it would be:

Haloti Ngata (1)

Darnell Dockett (3)

Shaun Ellis (1)

Justin Smith (1)

Calais Campbell (2)

The number next to their name indicate what round they were drafted in. That's 5 dominant 5 techs out of a total of 16 teams who run the 3-4. Sure, some of the 3-4's run a very run-focused d-line so their ends and nt don't put up the glory stats, but I think our defense is supposed to be modeled around this. We should be kicking ourselves for not drafting Campbell in our round 2 debacle a few years ago. If we had drafted Desean Jackson and then Campbell our round 2 would have been perfect. Oh hindsight.

Personally I would love a Jerrell Powe 1st, and trade out of 2nd for two 3rds to pick up Kendrick Ellis and Noel Devine. Powe and Ellis are both extremely athletic men who are built to be NT but can be played like ngata and go all over the line. Devine is a playmaker on offense that we sorely lack outside of Moss. Heck, if Haynesworth ever stops being a nuisance I would be chomping at the bit to see a line that went Haynesworth-Ellis-Powe. 320+ pound men who can play all along the line. And yes, this doesn't address our o-line but I kinda think our o-line will be pretty decent this year and maybe next year we can promote some of the practice squad rookies who had some promise. I think wr and rb will be a bigger problem for us than interior o-line.

[Laron Burgundy]

I wrote a lot last year about how Locker had tons of skills and was screwed by being forced to play with crap talent around him... well that is still somewhat true (though he does have decent RBs and WRs now) but I would not want to draft him. He doesn't have "It". He cannot take hold of a team and make them believe in him and lead them to wins. I see nothing out of Washington where he has complete command of the team. He also seems to be dumb. He has all the physical skills of John Elway/Steve Young, but does not have the It factor nor the football IQ.

(Bizarrely I feel like Locker has lost a step and seems to be a touch slower this year, but he has not had any success running the ball through 2 games both scrambling and on designed runs)

Another thing is that Sarkisian is dumb. He has shown nothing as a head coach.

Watched both Husky games this year in their entirety. He's up to 9-21 as a starter now.

I kinda feel the same way about him. There are plenty of qb's that excel with nothing around them. Rivers had pretty mediocre talent on offense around him in college but always stuck it to the Ohio States of the world and always had winning seasons. Eli Manning and Roethlisberger were the same way, same with Matt Ryan. I don't know of many successful pro qb's who had losing records as college players. It's why I didn't like Jimmy Clausen last year and why I don't care for Jake Locker this year. These guys have all the physical tools but they don't inspire and lead their teams. So many people blame defenses and such for these guys, but good qb's don't just lead their offense, they inspire their defense. I think indy's defensive brilliance in the playoffs on their superbowl run was due more to the defense really not wanting to let Manning down than anything else.

[theboomking]

I disagree with your assessment of Bailey's hand use though boomking. He lacks a set of moves like Adrian Clayborn has, but he's the more explosive edge rusher with better body control and he'll be a better pass rusher one day if he does develop some moves. But I've seen him stack and shed like a fiend and he is very good at using violent hands to control blockers and get off blocks and make plays. I actually think his best position by far is as a 5 technique in a 2 gapping scheme and moving inside to a 3 technique on passing downs. Wes Bunting echoes this sentiment in this season preview he wrote: http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/NFP-Scouting-Series-Miami.html

Bailey's got ridiculously strong hands, long arms, and a gigantic base. I think he'll be an elite run defender in the NFL.

I'd still take Clayborn ahead of him though. A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush as they say and Clayborn already looks like a finished product and he is certainly the better pass rusher right now. Plus he looks like troll, he'd be scary to line up against.

Everything about Bailey is physically strong. And you are right, he shows good hand use, sometimes. Other times he gets engulfed. What you almost never see with Bailey though, is what you see out of Clayborn on almost every play, controlling the OT with his hands while his eyes are in the backfield watching the play develop without committing, then shedding the OT and making the play on the ball. Clayborn already plays like a very good 5 tech. Bailey looks best when attempting to penetrate from the beginning of the snap.

Maybe you are right and Bailey could be a 5 tech. To my eye however, he plays a lot more like Gerald McCoy, who I consider to be a natural 3, than Suh, who I consider to be a natural 5. There is room for different types of lineman within the 34 however, and Bailey would definitely be a talent upgrade over what we have.

So what do you guys see as potential need areas on defense after that game tonight? A couple of things jumped out at me on that side of the ball. First, Rocky and London looked better than I could expected and I was far more optimistic about them this offseason than I had any right to be. Rocky is all over the field and he's just such an athlete in space. I'd go so far as to say this new defense suits him better than Blache's where he had to spend so much time setting the edge. London was his usual self, no surprise. He still looks young and fast, God knows how long he could play.

I definitely would like to see us invest in the defense in the draft. I was really disappointed in the defensive line play. Can you guys remember them making a single play. I've just been watching Shaun Ellis take apart the Ravens. We need a playmaker in the front 3.

As far as the MLB's played, I thought it was a mixed bag. Honestly, I thought they looked terrible at first, but as the game progressed, I, and the commentators, noticed that our LB's seemed to be playing more aggressively. I think we will continue to see them improve during the course of the season. I'm anxious to re-watch the game with an eye toward the DL and LB.

Second, Landry was every bit the brilliant, active, play-making safety I've always thought he could be. People will hone in on the Romo sits to pee miscue as basically the only bad play he made all night since they have absurdly unrealistic expectations for the position. But Landry was an utter force and set the tone on defense tonight. Reed didn't look as good, to put it kindly. He was a step slow and he missed a few tackles and struggled with Dallas' physical receivers... I'm afraid we're going to need to find another safety or that part of our defense is going to be a soft spot. Maybe Kareem Moore can be a stalwart, who knows.

Agreed. Landry looked great. I hope this is what we see from him for the rest of the season, and I am hopeful that for the most part, it will be. I have to say, I really like the way that Haslett blitzes the CB and covers with the safety. There is something about the way he has it implemented that makes it look really smooth and seamless. I really didn't like what I saw from Reed. I root for the guy, but if Moore can come back and be a playmaker, we will be much improved.

Third, aside from a few poor zone reads here and there (again, bound to happen) Deangelo Hall was brilliant (shockingly good in run support, he's an athletic, if not strong, tackler) and Carlos Rogers did a really nice job sticking his man. He's a really good man defender when he's on. I don't know about our depth, but if our starters continue to play as well as they did tonight, I don't see CB as a huge need this offseason.

Hall was great, surprisingly good in coverage and physical as a tackler. He really seemed to be frustrating Dez White. Rogers continues to look good in coverage. I think the key to our future at CB is obviously Barnes. Ideally he would start to show this season, and I'd love it if he could steal Philip Buchanon's spot.

Fourth, Orakpo's game was a bit of a mixed bag. He's an absolute terror against the pass, unbelievably fast and I think we're going to see him draw holds several times a game. Unfortunately, he didn't look as good playing the run. He reads his keys well, he's smart, and he's fairly good in chase. But man if he doesn't get a little passive with blockers and he took a few bad angles. If we're looking for another OLB this offseason, I think we're going to need to find a guy who's especially stout.

Orakpo looked very good as a rusher, but I didn't see him use his outside speed rush as much. He seemed to be relying on his bull rush and inside counter. Everyone in the media seems to be faulting Barron more than crediting Orakpo. I don't recall Wilson, Alexander or Carter doing much of anything on that side however, and Orakpo had pretty much exactly the same game against Barron that he had against D'Brickashaw Furguson and Michael Oher, beating all three cleanly with inside counters and getting held. If this pattern continues, I expect Rak to make a huge impact, regardless of what his sack numbers are.

]And then there was the defensive line. Frankly, I'm not impressed with our group. Kedric Golston didn't look that bad from what little I remember (although I'd have to go back and watch it again to be sure). But the rest of the bunch just looked plain slow. Dallas really exposed our lack of range on all those outside runs, and I think that'll be the way opponents move the ball on the ground. Haynesworth didn't really pop this game and I don't even think he was in for that many snaps. Basically, he looks like just another guy out there because he knows he's about to get traded. Philip Daniels looked more active from what I saw

I like most of our starters on defense moving forward except our entire defensive line. I think we could use at least two 5 techniques and a half decent nose. An Adrian Clayborn or Allen Bailey first round pick starts looking better and better the more I think about it.

Kemoeatu, Carriker and Golston did nothing to distinguish themselves. Haynesworth was prjected to play mostly end in the nickle, but got some reps early at NT in the base D. He looked pretty poor at the nose, getting shove around by Gurode, and I think probably would have played a lot more than 16 snaps if he had better aquitted himself. I really think that we should just bag the Haynesworth at nose experiment and play him at DE. At least then we'll have one playmaker on the line. Kemoeatu and Bryant can be plattooned at the position and be as good or better than Al.

My favorite punching bag, Rabach! For 9/10ths of the game was being used as a blocking dummy by Ratliff. Isn't quick enough to ZBS or strong enough to hold his own and not get dominated by NT's. Needs to be replaced ASAP, either by FA or the draft.

Guards and Centers are the keys for the ZBS to work effectively. Hicks is serviceable and Dockery/Lichtensteiger are having a battle of talent over fit in scheme. 2 of the 3 need to be replaced next year as the running game wasn't being executed at all last night.

WR's, outside of Moss, were invisible last night and the only time that Davis was in the game he was strictly a blocker. Something needs to be done this year to improve the passing game (could be the running game's issue as the offense is set up for play action passing).

Everyone with eyes would agree with you about Rabach's performance last night. Ratliff ate his lunch. That was a very familiar site last year as well. We need an upgrade at center. Hicks is older and rates only as serviceable, and it is obvious by the fact that the coaches are subbing out Dockery, that he isn't going to be an indefinite fixture. I'd love to see us take Hudson out of FSU, but he is going to go pretty early for a guard. Honestly, there is a lot we can do to improve the offense in FA next year. I'm happy we stayed out of the fray this year, but would like to see us dive in next year. Randy Moss, Vincent Jackson and Logan Mankins could really help open up the offense. Mike Williams should be coming back, and there should be some other quality interior lineman available.

Given the opportunity, my first choice might be to add a dynamic OLB that could play the run in the backfield, and rush the passer. If Quinn is available when we choose, then I think we have to take him. We are getting nothing out of Carter, Wilson and Alexander at this point. Having a guy opposite Orakpo that could be a dominant pass rusher would really add a lot to our defense.

Assuming that Quinn is gone, then I'd look at NT and DE, considering Powe, Clayborn, and Bailey, maybe in that order. I haven't taken a look at Powe's play myself however and am making that assertion off of scouting reports and reputation. I'd rather stay away from Heyward. He looks like he might be another Adam Carriker out there, and I think we can find those guys in the later rounds if we need more of them.

[Going Commando]

Everyone with eyes would agree with you about Rabach's performance last night. Ratliff ate his lunch. That was a very familiar site last year as well. We need an upgrade at center. Hicks is older and rates only as serviceable, and it is obvious by the fact that the coaches are subbing out Dockery, that he isn't going to be an indefinite fixture. I'd love to see us take Hudson out of FSU, but he is going to go pretty early for a guard. Honestly, there is a lot we can do to improve the offense in FA next year. I'm happy we stayed out of the fray this year, but would like to see us dive in next year. Randy Moss, Vincent Jackson and Logan Mankins could really help open up the offense. Mike Williams should be coming back, and there should be some other quality interior lineman available.

I'm going to respond to the rest of your post eventually, I just wanted to chime in here with a few quick thoughts. The first is that I don't think we should pursue Mankins in free agency unless it's to play center. He supposedly has the ability to line up at any OL position. Spending big on the top guards in FA doesn't typically pay off in the end because you only get two or three really good years from them and you have to pay them LT money at a position where you can get by developing late rounders. Case in point are Leonard Davis and Steve Hutchinson. Their play fell off a cliff after about only three seasons with their second teams. I'd much rather have us draft a guard like Rodney Hudson in the second round. Talented as he is, that's where I believe he'll be taken because of his size. Offensive tackles weighing less than 300 pounds don't get taken in the first round, I think that will be even more true for guards. I also don't think we should look to the draft for a center because of how long it takes for the position to develop. I'd prefer to find a veteran interior lineman to play center in FA and draft our guards.

I wouldn't be opposed to going after Vincent Jackson in free agency but his DUI suspension frightens me. There are also a lot of talented first round receiver prospects in this year's class who should be available when we pick. I think I'd rather draft Michael Floyd or A.J. Green than sign Vincent Jackson if we fortified our defense through FA.

Given the opportunity, my first choice might be to add a dynamic OLB that could play the run in the backfield, and rush the passer. If Quinn is available when we choose, then I think we have to take him. We are getting nothing out of Carter, Wilson and Alexander at this point. Having a guy opposite Orakpo that could be a dominant pass rusher would really add a lot to our defense.

I agree. Quinn is definitely my favorite prospect. I think he could do more for our defense than anyone else, especially if Rocky and Carlos get re-signed. I think I would draft Quinn ahead of every other prospect in the class aside from Andrew Luck if he came out. I'm hoping Quinn's suspension and positional value will drop him on draft day, I don't see us drafting in the top ten this year.

Assuming that Quinn is gone, then I'd look at NT and DE, considering Powe, Clayborn, and Bailey, maybe in that order. I haven't taken a look at Powe's play myself however and am making that assertion off of scouting reports and reputation. I'd rather stay away from Heyward. He looks like he might be another Adam Carriker out there, and I think we can find those guys in the later rounds if we need more of them.

I would go Clayborn, Powe, Bailey probably. Clayborn is significantly better right now than both Bailey and Powe. Bailey is a better player than Powe, but Powe plays the more valuable position where we have almost no indigenous talent on the roster. Powe is also losing a bunch of weight which is a little confusing. He's down to less than 320 pounds now I believe and he's starting at 3 technique for Ole Miss. Lawon Scott is their nose, and he's a decent NT prospect in his own right. If Powe slims down too much, he'll enter consideration for 4-3 teams as a 3 technique and increase his draft value. He's going to draw a lot of comparisons to B.J. Raji and we could certainly use a player like that in our defense.

Regardless, Clayborn is the better prospect IMO. I think he's one of the five best defensive prospects in the class for 3-4 defenses--

1. Quinn

2. Prince Amukamara

3. Clayborn

4. Marcell Dareus

5. Patrick Peterson

Bruce Carter, Greg Jones, Stephen Paea, Rahim Moore, and Allen Bailey forming the next tier.

How about this for a lucky draft scenario:

1st: Robert Quinn

2nd: Rodney Hudson

5th: Clint Boling

6th: Alex Wujciak/Phil Taylor

7th: Lawon Scott

[Oldskool]

Lucky for us C and G can typically be found later in the draft. Great NT are almost exclusively first rounders. And as it currently is, there are very few dominant 5 techs. If I had to list them it would be:

Haloti Ngata (1)

Darnell Dockett (3)

Shaun Ellis (1)

Justin Smith (1)

Calais Campbell (2)

The number next to their name indicate what round they were drafted in. That's 5 dominant 5 techs out of a total of 16 teams who run the 3-4. Sure, some of the 3-4's run a very run-focused d-line so their ends and nt don't put up the glory stats, but I think our defense is supposed to be modeled around this. We should be kicking ourselves for not drafting Campbell in our round 2 debacle a few years ago. If we had drafted Desean Jackson and then Campbell our round 2 would have been perfect. Oh hindsight.

I've had the "later rounds for OL" discussion with McQueen as well. With more and more teams going towards a ZBS, the Skins cannot sit on their laurels and hope OL come to them in the middle rounds.

There are only 2-3 teams that employ the 3-4 defense that use their zero and 5 technique DL as an attacker. That's why you don't have "dominant" 3-4 DL as you would have dominant 4-3 DL.

And Ngata is a special case in and of himself. At times, he plays as a second NT and other times he plays as a straight 5 tech. He may be the most talented 3-4 DL of his generation.

I think our solution at NT is Anthony Bryant. I'm confused why they are rotating a misfit in Haynesworth and a guy that isn't 100% healthy in Kemoeatu at NT when they have the player that was their best NT in camp as inactive in week 1.

Not drafting Calais Campbell was the 110% right thing to do at the time. He was a misfit for any 4-3 team and no one predicted that we'd be running a 3-4 right now.

[Laron Burgundy]

Not drafting Calais Campbell was the 110% right thing to do at the time. He was a misfit for any 4-3 team and no one predicted that we'd be running a 3-4 right now.

I disagree with this part. Campbell came from a 4-3 and had the athleticism and pass rushing ability to be a 4-3 end. Many people compared him to Mario Williams and Julius Peppers, who have done ok in the 4-3 as well.

I can see using our 2nd rounder on a center or guard, but our most pressing need will probably be wr. For God's sake Joey Galloway is a starting wr for us. He's 38 and hasn't started more than 4 games in a season in the past 4 years!!! Take out Moss and all our wr combined have 1 catch for 11 yards. That really is pathetic. God help us if he gets hurt. Yeah, I have pipe dreams of making our defense dominant with an addition or two there but I think the reasonable choice in the first round would be one of the top 4 receivers. WR is an important position and we have far and away the worst wr corp in our division, and probably bottom 5 in the league.

[Going Commando]

Campbell isn't a Mario Williams or Julius Peppers and the Peppers comparisons were premature. Campbell is a very tall Vernon Gholston type athlete with less upperbody strength and a higher center of gravity. He works best in straight lines, and he certainly doesn't have the combination of burst, flexibility, and body control that the elite ends like Peppers and Williams did. Had he, Campbell would have gone much, much higher. His strengths were excellent length and frame and straight line speed combined with good functional strength and a very large base. But even today he plays with poor pad level and he can't redirect like the Mario Williams' of the world.

Aaron Smith and Richard Seymour were the impact 5 techniques of the decade. They can and certainly do have an enormous impact on a team's success. Pittsburgh and New England ran very purist 3-4 fronts early on (only recently becoming more experimental and inclusive of 4-3 elements). Both teams have two gapped heavily, yet Smith and Seymour still found ways to make plays and have dominant impacts on games. 5 techniques are like that, and they are just as important as good NTs to fielding a great defense. More important in some ways because they don't come off the field on passing downs. Unfortunately, the 5 technique position has discouragingly high draft value now. Tyson Jackson went ahead of all the 3-4 OLBs AND the most brilliant NT prospect of the decade (B.J. Raji) when both positions were need areas for the Chiefs. Richard Seymour and Ty Warren were high picks, as was Ngata. Campbell and Dockett slipped through the cracks in their drafts in part because they weren't considered viable candidates for a 3-4 defense. Dockett was a 3 technique (still very much is) and Campbell lacked the strength in college to two gap and stack and shed. He was a pass rusher without a ton of base strength on his enormous frame. We can try and look for a similar type of player to develop in the draft. But there are three, maybe four, brilliant 5 technique first round prospects this year (Clayborn, Dareus, Bailey) and a couple of second round ones (Clayborn, Jenkins) who we should look at first. I don't think it can be overstated how much drafting a guy like Adrian Clayborn would help our defense and there's a decent chance he'll be available when we pick! From a pure position value/need/expense consideration, only a QB could be a more valuable pick this year. If Adrian Clayborn is there when we pick, I don't see how we can pass him over unless Andrew Luck or Robert Quinn are on the table too. Let's fix the trenches.

Also I don't agree with all the hype Haloti Ngata gets. He's not even the best lineman on his team much less one of the best 3-4 lineman of his generation. He's overrated for being a former first round pick on a great defense. Plain and simple, Kelly Gregg is better in the same way Andre Carter was better than Brian Orakpo last season. If age weren't a factor and I only needed to build a dominant D to win now, I would rather have either Gregg, Shaun Rogers, or Richard Seymour. If age is a consideration, I would rather have Vince Wilfork or Ndamukong Suh. And I hate to say it, but I would also rather have Jay Ratliff than Ngata because he plays more snaps and brings so much more against the pass.

Third, I agree that it makes a lot of sense to look at receivers in the first round since there are some authentic talents available, but it depends on which one we're in position to draft. I'm cooling a bit on Jon Baldwin from where I was very high on him before. He's productive guy, but he's not as far along as I had hoped. His route running is the least developed of the top four prospects, and he's got the least amount of short area quickness to make those cuts and get off the line fast.

I really like Michael Floyd and I could get behind drafting him in the first round if he's available. He has the softest set of hands and he is very explosive in short areas even though he lacks long speed. He runs nice routes, plucks the ball well, and he has fantastic agility for such a high cut player. He reminds me of lot of Dez Bryant. I probably wouldn't take him ahead of A.J. Green, who owns the superior run after the catch ability, but the difference between them as prospects looks small.

Also, Julio Jones has been written off on these boards for being unproductive in college but he's had a few really nice games in his career. I actually think he's got the rarest skillset of the bunch. He's huge and very powerful, has great leaping ability, good long speed, and does a good job running underneath. He looks a lot like a Brandon Marshall type receiver. Given that's probably the best receiver Shanahan has drafted, don't be surprised if he's our favorite going into the draft.

[The Tris]

It will be interesting to see how the Jets play this season if Kris Jenkins is again out for significant time (team sources say its 50-50 that his season is over). As I have mentioned before, after Jenkins went down last season in week 6, the Jets started Sione Pouha (6-3 325 lbs, 31 years old, 2005 3rd) at NT and rotated him with DE Mike Devito (6-2 305 lbs, 26 years old, UDFA) and Howard Green (6-2 365 lbs, 31, UDFA). Their defensive numbers actually improved when Jenkins was out of the line up, especially against the run, though I would never argue that they are better off without Jenkins. Regardless, they were effective last season using backups and undersized NTs.

Last night after Jenkins went down, Sione was again the primary NT, with the undersized Devito rotating in. Both finished with 7 tackles, and despite their lack of size, showed they could again be effective in the 3-4 (particularly note worthly against the Ravens purported elite OL and strong running game). Green is currently a FA after we cut him, and would not be surprised if the Jets pick him up for depth.

What this means for us, is again that elite NTs are not required for the 3-4 to be effective. If we do indeed trade Haynesworth, I would hope we give Howard Green another look to rotate at NT with Bryant (our best NT today) and Kemo (assuming he can progresses in his recovery, as based on his lack of strength, is still greatly limited), assuming the Jets don't pick him up.

Long term, I want to see if the Jets D can still perform at a high level without Jenkins. My assumption is that they will, and this will only underscore my opinion that NT, while still a need, should be properly rated in terms of positional value. I have to agree with the the popular sentiment that the 5-tech should be one of our top targets this offseason.

[Oldskool]

I disagree with this part. Campbell came from a 4-3 and had the athleticism and pass rushing ability to be a 4-3 end. Many people compared him to Mario Williams and Julius Peppers, who have done ok in the 4-3 as well. .

His former position coach from U of Miami was here with the Skins and we still didn't draft him. That's all that needs to be said.

He was too heavy (285lb+) to play 4-3 RDE (we didn't need another LDE at the time), he's too tall (6'8") to play DT in a 4-3. So just by looking at his physical stats, let alone his lack of being a pure pass rusher, he is tailor made for a 5 technique DE.

[Going Commando]

His former position coach from U of Miami was here with the Skins and we still didn't draft him. That's all that needs to be said.

He was too heavy (285lb+) to play 4-3 RDE (we didn't need another LDE at the time), he's too tall (6'8") to play DT in a 4-3. So just by looking at his physical stats, let alone his lack of being a pure pass rusher, he is tailor made for a 5 technique DE.

I think you are right about what Campbell's problem was and it's why he dropped so far in the draft. Coming into the draft, his home position, based on his exceptional speed and his lack of base strength was definitely 4-3 RDE but he was too tall and heavy and lacked the CoD necessary to be an elite edge rusher in the NFL. That lack of base strength and the high pad level he plays with due to his height is what kept him from being a very good 5 technique or 4-3 DT prospect. He's always had good core strength and had the ability to play strong with his hands, but anchoring against the run was a weakness before the draft and I still think he'd be a poor fit in most 3-4 defenses. He was a pass rusher, pure and simple, but not an elite edge rusher so that pretty much rules him out as a 4-3 end in the first round. Now he's cultivated a much stronger base in the time he's been in the NFL, but he still plays high and I don't think he's got the flexibility to just sit on his base in two gap and make plays. Arizona essentially found the perfect niche for him as an attacking 5, 6, and 7 technique in their three man front.

[Going Commando]

I think you make some very good points Tris. Some other examples of 3-4 fronts that have done well with NTs of middling talent are San Francisco and Cleveland with Ahtyba Rubin and Aubrayo Franklin. Rubin came in last season and played well when Shaun Rogers (the second best NT in the league IMO) went down with injury. Rubin was a 6th round pick in 2008, Franklin was a 5th round pick in 2003. Kelly Gregg was a 6th round pick in 1999 (ancient history for 3-4 position draft value), and he's the best NT in the league right now. You can play good defense with players like those given a few auxiliary conditions.

First, those guys are only run defenders, they offer nothing against the pass. Playing them means you'll need a consistent source of pressure from somewhere else in your front 7 beyond your OLB spots to have an elite pass defense. The Jets have Shaun Ellis and the 49ers have Justin Smith to compensate for their NT's limitedness. The Browns have Shaun Rogers whom they can move all around the line. When they didn't have Rogers, they had almost no pass rush whatsoever because their ends are ho-hum. You also need 5 techniques and good ILBs who can run if your NT has no range because teams will kill you with outside runs when your DL is slow. Just look at how the Cowboys handled us this weekend. Their most successful offensive plays came when they quickly got the ball towards the sidelines and forced our slow line to move.

Second, you need a good rotation with players like Pouha or else their effectiveness really declines. This is true of any NT really, but even more so for guys who can't play as many snaps as a Vince WIlfork or Jay Ratliff might.

Sometimes, it's nice to have a NT who's a multipurpose weapon because it makes playing defense so much easier--they are the man in the middle. These kinds of guys are rare and they are worth taking in the first round. If we can find a legit B.J. Raji/Shaun Rogers type in this year's class, then I think we should draft him and not look back. I'm just not sure that Jerrell Powe is that type of player, or that Stephen Paea can be an effective two gapping run defender. We'll have to see with them as the year progresses.

IMO NTs break down into categories of value based on skill set:

The first category is filled with prospects who are classic two gappers and run anchors but offer little else as players. Their value scales up with how strong a base they have, how good their motor is, and how polished they are in their hand use and recognition skills. You've got Terrence Cody and Cam Thomas types with Cody on the high end of the category since he runs so well. The second category is of the more valuable prospects who are your one gapping NTs that can pass rush like Kelly Gregg, Dan Williams, Linval Joseph or Jay Ratliff. Their value scales up based on how skilled they are at pass rushing, and how munch of an anchor they play with in college. Williams was a first round pick because of his exceptional range and anchor strength, Linval Joseph was a second round pick because he could pass rush. Ratliff fell through the cracks on draft day partly because he lacked the base strength of a tpyical NT and had to find a special scheme to fit where he could attack. The third category is of the prospects who excel at both styles, which is basically limited to Shaun Rogers and B.J. Raji and they understandably have very high draft value. We pretty much know we'll need a NT who can two gap quite a bit and those types have typically come cheaper than the one gapping kind. The eventual price we'll have to pay for our NT depends on how much range we think we'll need out of the position, and how much of an impact we want them to have in the passing game. It's highly unlikely we'll find a difference maker in that regard after the first two rounds.

Assuming Albert gets traded, I see us having exactly one solid long time starter on our defensive line in Carriker and two or three solid rotational players in Golston, Bryant, and perhaps Jarmon. Carriker is workmanlike at best, and I don't expect him to ever be a play-maker on our line. The rest of the positions we need to fill in through FA or the draft. I think we need to find at least one legit play-making presence on our line whether it's another 5 technique or a standout NT. Either one would be great. We're probably more likely to find an impact 5 technique in this year's class than a similarly gifted NT.

Some late round two gapping NT prospects that might be options this year are Lawon Scott from Ole Miss and Phil Taylor from Baylor. Some later round DEs that could be names to watch are Lucas Patterson from Texas A&M (Wes Bunting loves him), Lawrence Marsh from Florida, and Cameron Jordan from Cal.

Also, I wouldn't entirely rule out a one gapping prospect like Stephen Paea, especially if he slips into the second round because of his size. You could pair him with a more traditional masher at the position like Phil Taylor in a later round and give yourself a diverse set of options for your packages and schemes. I think we could build a dominant defensive line in a single draft class by selecting Adrian Clayborn in the first, Stephen Paea in the second, and Phil Taylor in the 5th or 6th rounds.

[Oldskool]

http://walterfootball.com/scoutsnotebook100914.php

QB Andrew Luck versus UCLA

1st - 14:53 - 5-step drop ... stares down receiver entire way ... poor footwork, left foot steps out which causes an errant throw that is too higher for 6'2 WR

1st - 14:48 - Seems to short arm throw ... releases ball to late causes low throw - incomplete

1st - 14:44 - Stares down receiver and DL anticipates ball, tips it

1st - 12:25 - Stares down receiver again, but reads defense well and throws an accurate ball to WR in flat ... understood the zone concept and got a first down

1st - 11:50 - Excellent play action on the fake toss ... Shows marginal yet adequate athleticism to get first down with legs

1st - 10:36 - Smart decision to keep football and run

1st - 9:38 - Nice job throwing on run - smooth ... throws accurate pass ... important to note this play doesn't "wow" me - his WR was fairly wide open and I don't see elite talent level yet

1st - 7:01 - Accurate pass on 3rd & 7 and shows solid arm strength ... very smooth

1st - 4:09 - Post corner route pass is floated too much - released ball too early ... poor touch on pass

1st - 1:50 - EXCELLENT FOOTBALL IQ here (2nd & G) ... sees that nobody is open, does a good job of staying in bounds and jumps to avoid going out of bounds - throws an incomplete ball at same time to avoid loss of yardage ... this play is a great example of instincts, "feel for the game" and football IQ

1st - 1:40 - Bad throw ... WR was open on slant, but ball was too high - this should be a throw on the waist ... I think this is correctable with experience

2nd - 13:41 - Nice job not throwing bad pass and goes through all progression ... nice checkdown to RB for big gain ... accurate ball and puts it in front of RB in stride

2nd - 8:14 - Terrible pass ... way too high for 6'6 TE

2nd - 7:01 - Very nice throw off balance, but incomplete (broken up by DB)

3rd - 9:34 - Inaccurate throw - too low ... shows just above average arm strength here on 12-yard comeback from far hash ("NFL throw")

3rd - 9:30 - Outstanding decision to run with ball ... great football IQ

3rd - 8:55 - Inaccurate throw on the run- too low

3rd - 8:15 - Floats deep ball AGAIN ... hangs it up there and safety breaks it up

3rd - 1:11 - Shows a lot of toughness in lowering shoulder to go for rushing TD

Summary: Luck is a smooth, efficient QB that plays like a first round pick (though I didn't see a top 10 talent on tape). He has adequate mobility and athleticism to gain yardage with his legs. However, I am concerned with his shaky passing accuracy and he floated deep balls twice on the only couple where I remember his receiver wasn't wide open. Will be interesting to see if he improves as a passer as the year goes on - and I DO NOT mean statistically - I mean on the tape.

Akeem Ayers, (3-4 DE/OLB/ILB) UCLA versus Standford

1st - 11:18 - Completely unblocked and gets TFL

1st - 10:22 - Outstanding job of taking on block ... simply lowers his shoulder and boulds over TE ... very nice feel for the game here (fun play to watch)

1st - 4:02 - Nice tackle on stretch run ... good job of diagnosing it

2nd - 8:45 - Nice job disengaging from FB to make tackle

2nd - 1:39 - Makes powerful hit ... Ayers definitely has some toughness and power to his game

3rd - 8:09 - Good motor making play from weakside - chasing down to hit ballcarrier ... Ayers seems to have intangibles of a football player ... not finesse or disinterested

4th - 11:32 - I LOVE how despite not being involved at all in a play on a sweep to opposite side of field, he hits #82 just because he feels like it and he is mad his team is down 28-0, but this wasn't unsportsmanlike conduct it was perfectly legal and he wasn't out of control ... Ayers really does have a killer instinct. I love his attitude - he's a competitor

[Going Commando]

I've been working on an evaluation of Ayers, it's interesting to read McGuire's take. There are a lot of people who are really high on him. He's got impressive instincts and its nice he's getting so much experience as an OLB. He's a crushing hitter and we could use some more players like that. But something about him doesn't click with me though and I can't quite put my finger on it yet. My first impression of him wasn't good. The feeling I came away when I watched him for the first time was that he's too stiff and lacks the body control to be a great LB in the NFL and is probably best suited to play DE. Take away the lucky touchdown returns, and I couldn't see what the first round hype was about. My opinion of him has improved. I'm going to try and see more of him before I say anything definitive about him because my impression clashes with the majority of observers.

[Dukes and Skins]

I've been working on an evaluation of Ayers, it's interesting to read McGuire's take. There are a lot of people who are really high on him. He's got impressive instincts and its nice he's getting so much experience as an OLB. He's a crushing hitter and we could use some more players like that. But something about him doesn't click with me though and I can't quite put my finger on it yet. My first impression of him wasn't good. The feeling I came away when I watched him for the first time was that he's too stiff and lacks the body control to be a great LB in the NFL and is probably best suited to play DE. Take away the lucky touchdown returns, and I couldn't see what the first round hype was about. My opinion of him has improved. I'm going to try and see more of him before I say anything definitive about him because my impression clashes with the majority of observers.

I found him to be very impressive against Stanford. He showed good explosion and was someone who couldn't be blocked albeit Stanford's OL is not the greatest but solid. I'm with you I need to watch him more before I decide on anything

[The Tris]

schadjoe Pittsburgh said defensive end Greg Romeus will have surgery on his lower back on Thursday.

schadjoe Dave Wannstedt hopes Romeus can return before the end of season.

[Dukes and Skins]

schadjoe Pittsburgh said defensive end Greg Romeus will have surgery on his lower back on Thursday.

schadjoe Dave Wannstedt hopes Romeus can return before the end of season.

Big blow to Pittsburgh if he's out all year. Hopefully he can return and put up a decent year and not lose too much in his draft stock as he's a great DE one I would love to have

[Going Commando]

Romeus' stock was already taking a hit this season because he wasn't playing well. I'm not sure when the injury happened, does anyone know?

I seriously doubt he'll be taken in the first round now and I don't think we can project him anywhere cleanly in our defense. He's a 4-3 DE just like Derrick Morgan was. I wouldn't draft him. There'll be better prospects than Romeus available who fit our scheme.

[Dukes and Skins]

Romeus' stock was already taking a hit this season because he wasn't playing well. I'm not sure when the injury happened, does anyone know?

I seriously doubt he'll be taken in the first round now and I don't think we can project him anywhere cleanly in our defense. He's a 4-3 DE just like Derrick Morgan was. I wouldn't draft him. There'll be better prospects than Romeus available who fit our scheme.

I would love to have him steve if we were running a 4-3 but since we're in the 3-4 I want us to stay away from him no doubt about it

[Going Commando]

Just as I was starting to warm up to Andrew Luck, Matt McGuire from walterfootball.com gives a strong critique of him in his most recent post: http://walterfootball.com/mattblog100915.php

I've watched game tapes of Jake Locker versus BYU and Syracuse, and Stanford Luck against UCLA.

Without a doubt in my mind, Locker is the better prospect. While Luck is slightly more polished, this is really nitpicking. Locker far and away has a better arm in my opinion, and athleticism is no contest here. Locker is also a more accurate quarterback from what I've seen, and he doesn't float the deep ball like Luck.

The gist of the post seems to be that you probably won't go wrong with either QB. I think he's too quick to completely shrug off the questions about QB record in college. The QB position isn't like other positions. Clutch matters a lot in an evaluation, and Locker had a chance to win the game against BYU and didn't. I wouldn't let it be the determining factor in whether I drafted him or not, but I also wouldn't ignore it.

The way McGuire evaluates Luck makes him sound a lot like another Sarkisian QB--Mark Sanchez, only Luck plays without the accuracy Mark Sanchez did. McGuire isn't the only one who's skeptical of Luck. Rob Staton at the Seahawks Draft Blog wasn't impressed with him either, saying he looked like a game manager: http://seahawksdraftblog.com/?p=231

Let's tick off some of Luck's qualities:

- average arm strength

- good, not great footspeed

- very good mechanics, footwork, throwing motion

- very fast release

- background in west coast offense

- capable of doing the little things like look off safeties and run play fakes

- good, if bit streaky as a decision maker

- questionable accuracy

There's a lot of good right there but there's also some significant bad. The fat that he lacks both accuracy and arm strength is a very bad sign. You need one or the other (or both preferably). Can we all just agree that Andrew Luck isn't coming out this year? He's not ready for the NFL. He needs to mature as a passer and player and he needs to become a far more accurate QB or he will bust.

With all of the Pac-10 QB talk centering on Locker and Luck, I wonder if the guy we should be talking about isn't Nick Foles. Foles has looked a lot better this year than last year and he was good in 2009. The knock on him was that he was too quick to check down to the short stuff, and didn't use his considerable arm strength to push the ball downfield. Well this year, through two games, he is completing almost four yards more per attempt and his offense has really opened up because of it. He's been ridiculously efficient so far: 83% completions, 174.7 RAT. He's only missed ten passes so far. He's been on the money and he can throw like Carson Palmer. I think he's a great prospect and if he continues to play like he has throughout the year, he'll be a first round pick. This weekend against Iowa will be an enormous test for him. It could be the kind of game that springboards him into the national discussion if he plays well, even if Arizona loses.

Also, the more Andrew Luck and Jake Locker play and get scrutinized, the better I feel about my claim that Blaine Gabbert is the best QB prospect in college right now :

[Going Commando]

Wes Bunting also put the kibosh on the Terrelle Pryor talk in his most recent post: http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Scouts-notebook-Offense-7084.html

His bottom line,

Again, he’s good enough to get away with his faults at the college level and could end up winning a Heisman Trophy and a national championship at some point over the next two seasons. But, as a productive starting quarterback in the NFL, I just can’t see it.

That's a pretty definitive statement. In the article he outlines how Pryor gives no sense that he's able to go through progressions, read coverages, and make good snap decisions. What a shame that is, because goddamn the fellow is strong and fast and he's a lot of fun to watch.

Alright this QB landscape shapes up a little bit each week. Here are my impressions on the pitfalls of a few prospects,

Jake Locker - above average arm, not great; accuracy a bit lacking; hasn't won at the college level; durability concerns.

Andrew Luck - accuracy lacking; arm strength a bit lacking; not much of a playmaker

Terrelle Pryor - decision making still infantile; mid round developmental prospect

Ryan Mallett - lacks timing and touch; very long windup; lacks consistency on his throws

Christian Ponder - decision making and accuracy questionable; arm strength merely adequate

Cam Newton - plays in a collegey offense; much like Pryor, looks like a mid round developmental prospect

Blaine Gabbert - plays in a purist spread option offense

Nick Foles - umm... he's an underclassman? (only because he transferred)

Perhaps Gabbert and Foles don't have as many chinks in their armor because they aren't being talked about like the other prospects. Or maybe they are just really good. The answer is probably some of both. I have my doubts that either will declare early for the 2011 draft, but if they did and are still flying enough under the radar to slip into the second round, they could be enormous bargains. It's more likely they'll each play out their eligibility and I bet those two will be the talk of the 2012 draft. I'm crossing my fingers we'll draft Gabbert in 2012 after selecting Adrian Clayborn in round one and Julio Jones in round two in 2011 and solidifying our defense and acquiring a nice weapon in the passing game.

[The Tris]

because they aren't being talked about like the other prospects.

I think you hit the nail on the head here. Year after year, the closer it gets to QBs turning pro, the more reasons are stacked up why they won't be a good pro. Same thing happened last year, and the consensus from a lot of people ended up being, well, let's just wait until 2011, where the prospects are really good. And the same thing is happening again, hell, I saw a poster a few weeks back say we needed to wait on Barkley or Gilbert in 2013! Before Gilbert has even played a full season!

The reality is we are always going to find a pimple on these QBs when we start looking.