2011 Comprehensive NFL Draft Database

[darrelgreenie]

Some of the best young QBs were taken in advance of the current starter losing steam, including Rivers, Romo sits to pee, Kolb, and Rodgers.

Waiting until a problem becomes a crisis is the way Vinny operated.

I think you missed the point of my post.

[Oldskool]

The best thing the Packers ever did was they didn't wait for the QB to be an immediate need.

Waiting until a fading player at a premier position (QB, LT) completely breaks down is how you end up with 4-12 season.

Some of the best young QBs were taken in advance of the current starter losing steam, including Rivers, Romo sits to pee, Kolb, and Rodgers.

Waiting until a problem becomes a crisis is the way Vinny operated.

The problem with that thought pattern is that the Packers drafted smartly before and the had the luxury of drafting Rodgers and having him sit for a few years.

The Skins may not say it, but they need to rebuild certain key parts of their team (such as Center, RG, WR, NT, RB and OLB) before they have the luxury of taking a QB and having him sit and learn. With a smart FA period and a fortunate draft, that's a few years away.

[Going Commando]

The problem with that thought pattern is that the Packers drafted smartly before and the had the luxury of drafting Rodgers and having him sit for a few years.

The Skins may not say it, but they need to rebuild certain key parts of their team (such as Center, RG, WR, NT, RB and OLB) before they have the luxury of taking a QB and having him sit and learn. With a smart FA period and a fortunate draft, that's a few years away.

I'm not so sure about that. The Packers have picked in the top 10 a couple times this decade and were on really shaky ground around the time they took Rodgers. Rodgers was viewed as a tremendous luxury pick for them at the time and their draft was widely panned. They finished with a top 5 pick the next season, and their selection (Hawk) hasn't worked out as well as they'd hoped. In 2004 Ahmad Carroll who was a huge bust. Same for Justin Harrell in 2007. The guy they traded down for at 36 in 2008 (Jordy Nelson) hasn't done much more than Devin Thomas. It could very well have been five wasted first round picks in a row if Rodgers hadn't worked out as spectacularly as he has. Rodgers was not drafted onto a talent rich team.

But what the Packers do well is grasp both the value of draft picks and the quarterback position. The Packers made sure they would get their QB after Brett Favre, spending a first round pick on Rodgers despite far more pressing needs. Then they spent a second round pick on Brian Brohm as insurance before they'd ever even gotten a real look at Rodgers. I'd argue that our need for a future franchise caliber QB is even greater than it was for the Packers in '05 because McNabb has nowhere near Favre's durability.

I agree with the Tris, the best thing we could possibly do for the long term would be to draft a future stud a couple seasons before McNabb is done. I don't know that we'll have the opportunity to get one this season. But the stars seem to be aligning that we might be in position to get a very good first round QB prospect in the 2012 and 2013 classes.

Also, I'd like to point out that Aaron Rodgers was widely considered a top 5 pick up until draft day. He wasn't some sort of diamond in the rough McCarthy scooped up at the end of the first round because of his superior ability to identify QB talent. Rodgers was a highly regarded stud that fell because of the miscalculation of numerous franchises.

[The Tris]

I think you missed the point of my post.

You are against drafting a high first round QB, unless the team is completely rebuilding, or they are "a QB away". I would dispute that teams that are a QB away are best suited drafting a rookie QB and letting him work through his ups and downs while pursing a SB, and think that they are much better suited going the Minny-Brett Favre route, but that is another discussion.

But regardless, I am not expecting to be drafting a QB a high round QB, nor am I advocating it. Rather I am making the case that there is a reasonably high success rate for teams that take a middle to late 1st round or 2nd round QB and allow them time to sit.

All the coaches you cite drafted or traded for QBs that were in essence "late 1st or 2nd round picks." Walsh traded 2nd and 4th round picks for Young, Holmgren traded 19th pick for Favre, Reid drafted McNabb with 2nd pick and Kolb with the 36th pick, Payton traded for former 32nd overall pick Brees. Only Turner never really drafted a QB, but his greatest success has been with top 4 picks Aikman and Rivers.

The exceptions to the rule are the Matt Hassellbecks and the Tony Romos, not the rule.

And most of these guys didn't have an immediate need (the need to play them season one) either: Young behind Montana, Favre behind Detmer, Kolb behind McNabb. Yet they saw value in taking a guy to groom, so you aren't grooming on the fly.

While our situation is not the same, I agree with you that we should follow their philosophy. That philosophy being developing a young QB behind the aging veteran.

The problem with that thought pattern is that the Packers drafted smartly before and the had the luxury of drafting Rodgers and having him sit for a few years.

The Packers had PLENTY of needs in 2005, including DL, OL, RB, WR and S. As evidence by their 4-12 record that year, and 8-8 record the next year. The nucleus of the Packers team of today was put together post Aaron Rodgers.

The Skins may not say it, but they need to rebuild certain key parts of their team (such as Center, RG, WR, NT, RB and OLB) before they have the luxury of taking a QB and having him sit and learn. With a smart FA period and a fortunate draft, that's a few years away.

I don't dispute these needs, I simply feel that if we are in the position to take a good QB prospect that fits our scheme, waiting to do that because we might be able to squeeze out an extra season from McNabb is playing with fire. The interior line, RB, and even NT as WR are positions which don't require high picks, and in fact are positions that Shanahan has had success with using later draft picks.

Bottomline, I'm not locking into anything. But if we are sitting in the late teens, or twenties, and someone like, say, Christian Ponder is still there, thats a move I hope we make, for the long term good of the team.

[The Tris]

I'm going to try and dig up some old draft grades to support that the Packers pick of Rodgers was done in spite of other pressing needs.

Will update as I find:

2005 Draft Grade for the Packers: C-

Good Moves: The Packers had a tough choice to make in the first round: draft a talented successor to Brett Favre, or improve their woeful defense. They chose the latter. Green Bay has a bright future with Rodgers who should have been the first pick, but their present is bleak. Center Junius Coston and WR Craig Bragg were excellent choices in the fifth- and sixth-rounds, respectively.

Bad Moves: Green Bay did not address their woeful front seven until the fourth round. Cornerback Nick Collins and wide receiver Terrence Murphy, both taken in the second round, were fourth-round prospects, at best. None of Green Bay's other picks made any sense. If they passed up on Rodgers in the first round, the Packers would have an F.

Green Bay Packers

Best pick: At some point, they had to get the replacement for Brett Favre. Getting Aaron Rodgers late in the first round is a big-time pick.

Questionable move: That said, this is a team that needs help on defense. Some might think the Packers should have used a first-round pick there.

Steal: Sixth-round pick Mike Montgomery was a college defensive end, but he might bulk up and move to tackle. He would need to add about 25 pounds.

Overall grade: C Getting Rodgers was the right move, but what will that do for maligned defense next year?

(CONDITIONAL [no grade given])

PACKERS -- And you know why, too. If Rodgers makes it big, around 15 years from now when Brett Favre decides to retire, then the Packers will be everyone's heroes -- it'll be another Shula-Marino deal, for taking him so far down. If he bombs out, which a lot of people must have thought he would, then Green Bay is just the team that wasted a pick. There are 10 more worthies to discuss in this rather swollen 11-man draft. I'll leave that task to Mel Kiper.

I think we all get the point. I also found this interesting:

[grade for past five drafts]

C-

After a strong 2002 draft that brought them receiver Javon Walker (1st), fullback Najeh Davenport (4th) and defensive end Aaron Kampman (5th), the trend has been negative. Linebacker Nick Barnett (1st) was the only positive to come out of 2003, and the top of the 2004 draft is forgettable so far with cornerbacks Ahmad Carroll (1st) and Joey Thomas (3rd) headlining. Throw in the Jamal Reynolds first-round mistake in 2001, and you have the makings for a below average first half of the decade.

[darrelgreenie]

The Packers made sure they would get their QB after Brett Favre, spending a first round pick on Rodgers despite far more pressing needs. Then they spent a second round pick on Brian Brohm as insurance before they'd ever even gotten a real look at Rodgers.

Second since we're all speculating about the Packers here's my take.

I think Ron Wolk Edit: grew tired/nervous of Favre's Sophie's Choice routine and over reacted to a bad season and (wrongly) thought Favre was done and pegged his play as a reason for the team's demise rather then the rest of the teams roster. If i recall correctly that was around the time the Packers could have aquired Randy Moss for a 3rd round pick?

Rodgers turned out to be a good move but who knows what would have happened if the Packers would have spent those early draft to improve other areas of the team? -Maybe Brett would still be there? Maybe they would have made a trip to the Super Bowl?

I'd argue that our need for a future franchise caliber QB is even greater than it was for the Packers in '05 because McNabb has nowhere near Favre's durability

Well since i don't agree the Packers actually had a 'need' for QB.

And i don't think we need enough a QB enough to take one in the 1st round especially with an early pick.

I agree with the Tris, the best thing we could possibly do for the long term would be to draft a future stud a couple seasons before McNabb is done. I don't know that we'll have the opportunity to get one this season. But the stars seem to be aligning that we might be in position to get a very good first round QB prospect in the 2012 and 2013 classes.

BTW-Tris doesn't realize that he's actually not in opposition to my overall post, (Edit: Lol, Tris and i are in general agreement)i do adovacte taking a QB next year just not early in the 1st round.

Also, I'd like to point out that Aaron Rodgers was widely considered a top 5 pick up until draft day. He wasn't some sort of diamond in the rough McCarthy scooped up at the end of the first round because of his superior ability to identify QB talent.

Who said that he was a diamond in the rough?

I mentioned Rodgers in regard to his draft position/relative to the risk.

[The Tris]

BTW-Tris doesn't realize that he's actually not in opposition to my overall post, (Edit: Lol, Tris and i are in general agreement)i do adovacte taking a QB next year just not early in the 1st round.

Yeah, as we discussed further, we are seemingly on the same page.

What's interesting though, it if we are picking late in the first, reason stands that McNabb had a good season. If we end up picking early in the first, reason would stand that McNabb had a bad season. While not necessarily mutually exclusive, its fairly safe to say our season goes as McNabb's goes.

Which would only strenghten the opposition to drafting a QB with a late first among the masses.

[Oldskool]

I'm not so sure about that. The Packers have picked in the top 10 a couple times this decade and were on really shaky ground around the time they took Rodgers. Rodgers was viewed as a tremendous luxury pick for them at the time and their draft was widely panned. They finished with a top 5 pick the next season, and their selection (Hawk) hasn't worked out as well as they'd hoped. In 2004 Ahmad Carroll who was a huge bust. Same for Justin Harrell in 2007. The guy they traded down for at 36 in 2008 (Jordy Nelson) hasn't done much more than Devin Thomas. It could very well have been five wasted first round picks in a row if Rodgers hadn't worked out as spectacularly as he has. Rodgers was not drafted onto a talent rich team.

But what the Packers do well is grasp both the value of draft picks and the quarterback position. The Packers made sure they would get their QB after Brett Favre, spending a first round pick on Rodgers despite far more pressing needs. Then they spent a second round pick on Brian Brohm as insurance before they'd ever even gotten a real look at Rodgers. I'd argue that our need for a future franchise caliber QB is even greater than it was for the Packers in '05 because McNabb has nowhere near Favre's durability.

I agree with the Tris, the best thing we could possibly do for the long term would be to draft a future stud a couple seasons before McNabb is done. I don't know that we'll have the opportunity to get one this season. But the stars seem to be aligning that we might be in position to get a very good first round QB prospect in the 2012 and 2013 classes.

Also, I'd like to point out that Aaron Rodgers was widely considered a top 5 pick up until draft day. He wasn't some sort of diamond in the rough McCarthy scooped up at the end of the first round because of his superior ability to identify QB talent. Rodgers was a highly regarded stud that fell because of the miscalculation of numerous franchises.

True the Packers got a complete steal on Rodgers (who should have gone #1 to the 49ers, not Alex Smith) when they drafted him in 2005. But let's look at the Packers stats for the previous 4 years, spanning from 2000 to 2004, to see what was really going on.

2004 the Packers had statistically the 3rd best offense and the 25th rated defense.

2003 the Packers had statistically the 4th best offense and the 17th rated defense.

2002 the Packers had statistically the 12th best offense and the 12th rated defense.

2001 the Packers had statistically the 6th best offense and the 12th rated defense.

2000 the Packers had statistically the 15th best offense and the the 15th rated defense.

The steady decline in defense can be attributed to their former DC, Ed Donatell, who isn't even in the NFL at the moment. The following year, under Slowik (who isn't great either), their defense rose to 7th.

In the 4 years prior to drafting Rodgers (at 25th overall), the Packers had drafted at 25th, 29th, 20th, 10th and 14th. This shows that they drafted smart, had a foundation to build on and had the luxury of taking a flyer on Rodgers when they still had Favre in his prime.

[The Tris]

In the 4 years prior to drafting Rodgers (at 25th overall), the Packers had drafted at 25th, 29th, 20th, 10th and 14th. This shows that they drafted smart, had a foundation to build on and had the luxury of taking a flyer on Rodgers when they still had Favre in his prime.

Of those 5 first round picks, only one is still on the Packers (Nick Barnett)

2 were outright busts (Jamal Reynolds, Ahmad Carroll)

The other two, Bubba Franks and Javon Walker, were decent but unspectacular picks. When you take a TE 14th overall, he better have more than 450 yards receiving in a season. Walker had one good season, one great season, then faded due to injuries, though he did have a brief bounce back with the Broncos.

None of these picks represents a solid foundation for a young QB.

In fact, from 2000-2004 drafts, only 3 players remain on the 2010 Packers. Clifton, Tauscher, and Barnett. I don't think a single player from the 2001 or 2004 drafts was a factor in even Rodgers first season starting in 2008.

You can't go o-fer in 2 of 5 drafts and say they drafted smart. The only reason they didn't bottom out in 2000-2004 was Favre in his prime, not smart drafting.

Bottomline is, the Packers had huge needs, particularly in the defensive front seven, that were shelved in favorite of taking a great QB prospect a few years before they would need him.

[Going Commando]

Robert Quinn, UNC, DE/LB

Junior, 6'5", 270 lbs.

I'll frame this evaluation by just coming out and saying that, IMHO, Robert Quinn is the best player in this class and I think it's by a substantial margin. For my money, a more complete 3-4 outside linebacking prospect hasn't come out since... I'm not even sure when. It's a little difficult to find the right comparison for Quinn. DeMarcus Ware is probably the best one but I think he plays with more strength and awareness than Ware did in college. He's good. Not even having brain surgery to remove a benign brain tumor his senior year of high school slowed him down. His life is a pretty amazing story, but more importantly for us, he's an amazing prospect. Without further delay, some youtube cutups:

Robert Quinn vs. UVA: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNoYxbvKxXE

Robert Quinn vs. Anthony Costanzo: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kqJrjwjf55c

Just from watching his cutups in these two games, you can see why Quinn's scouting report reads so much like DeMarcus Ware's. He plays with a very rare blend of power, speed, and recognition. First off, he's got prototypical height and length to play either linebacker or end, and at about 265 lbs., he's already got NFL bulk and musculature to play 3-4 OLB. He's a cut athlete with a good bubble and very long arms like Ware's or Brian Orakpo's. Quinn has an elite first step and has the suddenness to make a lethargic blocker look just plain foolish. Look at the play at the 1:22 mark of the video of the Virginia game. He's off the line and stunting by the LG almost before the poor guy even gets out of his stance! Quinn pairs his deadly suddenness with elite footspeed--he can take very wide loops to get to the quarterback or he can use his quickness and strength to shoot inside at angles. He's a good runner and can chase down plays in backside pursuit and still be the first man on the scene. And Quinn as great lateral agility, flexibility, and balance. He looks great stunting and scraping. He shows the natural balance and CoD to flatten out on the edge once he's got a shoulder on the tackle and beat an efficient path to the quarterback. He's a superb athlete. This might be apocryphal, but I read somewhere that Quinn set some crazy school records for his workout numbers. Apparently he ran that fastest 40 yard dash time for a defensive lineman in school history... he ran a 4.38... at 266 pounds. That's .15 seconds faster than Julius Peppers' previous school record. I don't know that he'll ever run that fast again, but it ballparks his speed and acceleration for you. Anthony Castonzo is a very good tackle prospect, he's Todd McShay's top tackle right now and a projected first rounder. Yet Robert Quinn just kicks his ass in this video with his unstoppable quickness and strength.

Speaking of his strength, you see it best in the way he drives, very rarely giving up ground in the running game. Quinn uses his hands well and has a jarring punch with nice recoil, and he controls blockers and can shed them most of the time in order to make plays. He's got great core strength, probably from his background as a wrestler where he was an All American in high school, going undefeated three years in a row. That's also probably where he developed his nastiness, hustle, and sheer tenacity that allow him to make so many hustle plays like the first one you see in the UVA video. He works till the end of the play and never quits on a rush so often time you'll see him snatch victory from the jaws of defeat and get pressures even when his opponent does a good job shutting him down. Quinn is also a very powerful and talented hitter. He breaks down nicely in the open field and can drag ball carriers down he's also strong and active enough to create collisions around the line. His closing burst is elite and he's an impact hitter that can lay the wood--he forced 6 fumbles last season and very nearly flattened BC's quarterback into a fathead poster on that first sack of the video. Quinn also uses his strength very well to handle double teams and avoid getting pushed back. He gets skinny to split the double team on the last play of the BC video and gets the pressure that forced a pick 6.

One of the things I love the most about watching Quinn is seeing the level of recognition he plays with. He does a good job diagnosing blocking schemes (although FSU's more complicated ZBS gave him some trouble), and he does a very good job reading the quarterback and sniffing out misdirection. He's almost never fooled by screens and draws, and he does a superb job of locating the ball every play. He's a smart player who reportedly works very hard and is capable of learning an NFL caliber playbook.

There were a few quibbles I picked up on before I'd label him a finished product. While he's got a pretty nice array of pass rushing moves for a college player like his club and arm over, I think he could stand to develop a spin move to help him out with double teams, and I think he could use his counter moves more often to get off blocks. Every once in a while, you'll see him have problems redirecting and getting off blocks, and he'll allow defenders to turn him and break containment fro trying to get up field. Also, I think he could protect his base a little better because he does get taken off his feet on occasion. As far as body type goes, he lacks the size of an every down 4-3 lineman which limits his value a bit for teams running that scheme. Plus he doesn't really own a gigantic base--his calves actually look a little slender compared to the rest of him. Perhaps his primary flaw will be that he has minimal experience in coverage. It'll probably be a whole different ballpark for him once he gets to the NFL and has to defend a few short zones and I probably wouldn't ever want him isolated in man coverage. It looks like he's got decent ball skills and he timed the deflection of that screen pass pretty well in the BC video, but I doubt he'll stand out for his hands. No 3-4 OLB does though. Maybe he won't ever be as slick in zone coverage as Terrell Suggs, but he's a smart enough player that does a good job reading the quarterback so I think he'd eventually be alright in the fairly simple coverage responsibilities he'd see in most 3-4 schemes.

What he entails for us

Well, quite simply, he's the perfect strong side linebacker in a 3-4. Drafting Quinn could give us an unspeakably good pair of starting outside linebackers with Brian Orakpo. They would have the potential to be even better than DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer. Qinn is smart, plays the run well, and is a pass rushing terror. Plus he's been pretty durable in college, and has a nice level of fitness so he can play a high number of snaps. His versatility means that you can play him in nearly all of your 3-4 packages as well as on the line and never worry about selling your playcalls. And the boon he'd bring to our pass rush cannot be understated. I worry about Orakpo should Andre Carter's production get lost in the scheme transition, especially when Albert Haynesworth isn't on the field. Orakpo would be left as the sole source of consistent pressure in our front 7 and we'd have to start blitzing defensive backs to mix things up. Drafting Quinn would nullify that issue since you can keep them both on the field constantly. Add Albert Haynesworth into the equation, and I say this without hyperbole, I do not think you could block all three except sporadically. Most downs, one or more would get a pressure. And with the kind of support Quinn would receive from Orakpo and Haynesworth, It'd probably be only a matter of time before Quinn would be considered the best player on our team.

The problem with drafting Quinn is that he might be a very high pick. He could very well go first overall and I sincerely hope we aren't drafting first overall come April. But an undersized, tweener type like Quinn hasn't been taken first in at least a decade. Chris Long went second but that hasn't worked out well, and it was to play RE in a 4-3. Gaines Adams went 4th but he never panned out in Tampa Bay even before his tragic death. Derrick Harvey went a little bit later at 8 but he's venturing on bust territory as well. Jammal Anderson had the size but lacked the strength to be an every down lineman and was a speed rusher in college who relied on a finesse game to get pressure. He's considered a disappointment in Atlanta too.

I actually doubt a 4-3 team picking in the top five will take Quinn because of a perceived lack of position value for a player best suited to 3-4 OLB. Typically, if an edge rusher is taken in the top 5, it's by a 4-3 team and he has to have a physique like Mario Williams. Other than that, the player has to either be an every down lineman like a Suh, McCoy, Jackson, Dorsey, Okoye, or Ellis. Or he has to be an elite 4-3 weakside linebacker like Hawk, Rivers, Mayo (though he plays ILB), or Sims. Occasionally, a 4-3 team will take an elite LB like Curry or McClain to play on the strong side or at ILB.

3-4 OLBs have surprisingly poor value in the draft even though they routinely fill up the top 5 sacks and pressures lists. Remember how far Brian Orakpo fell in 2009? He might have fallen further if he'd been pigeonholed as a 3-4 OLB. Shawne Merriman and DeMarcus Ware dropped in 2005. Anthony Spencer fell all of the way to 26 in 2007. I think there is a chance that Robert Quinn could drop out of the top 8. Perhaps if we go 8-8 and pick around 12, he'd be available to us. If the price wasn't too absurd, I'd even advocate trading up to pick him if he made it out of the top 8. Quinn is my early favorite player for us in the class ahead of Paea and is at the top of my wishlist.

[Oldskool]

Of those 5 first round picks, only one is still on the Packers (Nick Barnett)

2 were outright busts (Jamal Reynolds, Ahmad Carroll)

The other two, Bubba Franks and Javon Walker, were decent but unspectacular picks. When you take a TE 14th overall, he better have more than 450 yards receiving in a season. Walker had one good season, one great season, then faded due to injuries, though he did have a brief bounce back with the Broncos.

None of these picks represents a solid foundation for a young QB.

In fact, from 2000-2004 drafts, only 3 players remain on the 2010 Packers. Clifton, Tauscher, and Barnett. I don't think a single player from the 2001 or 2004 drafts was a factor in even Rodgers first season starting in 2008.

You can't go o-fer in 2 of 5 drafts and say they drafted smart. The only reason they didn't bottom out in 2000-2004 was Favre in his prime, not smart drafting.

Bottomline is, the Packers had huge needs, particularly in the defensive front seven, that were shelved in favorite of taking a great QB prospect a few years before they would need him.

Great points if 1st round picks were all that mattered and that free agency didn't come into play either.

As for this supposed void in the DL, lets look at the facts.

2004 14th in rushing YPC, 9th in sacks.

2003 10th in rushing YPC, 20th in sacks

2002 21st in rushing YPC, 6th in sacks

2001 16th in rushing YPC, 3rd in sacks

2000 8th in rushing YPC and 19th in sacks

This isn a "problem" that they had until they got rid of Donnatel, Slowik and Jim Bates, all of which are a step below their current DC, Capers. It could be a chicken or egg issue but with these DC's track records, it leans to being more towards scheme and less towards lack of talent.

[darrelgreenie]

While not necessarily mutually exclusive, its fairly safe to say our season goes as McNabb's goes.

I would say our offense will go as McNabb goes but McNabb goes as our OL/receivers go (then of course there's the defense which imo will ultimately decide how this season goes)

[The Tris]

Great points if 1st round picks were all that mattered and that free agency didn't come into play either.

YOU cited the first round picks to begin with as an indication of their smart drafting.

We are not talking about FA, we are talking about how smart the Packers drafted prior to selecting Aaron Rodgers. If we want to bring FA into it, that changes the conversation (though it shouldn't matter as the only significant FA signed during this period was Al Harris - one guy in 5 years).

We are also not discussing coaching changes AFTER Rodgers was drafted, as that would have no bearing on the foundation that was in place BEFORE he was selected.

As it currently stands, the facts are, they didn't draft smart at all from 2000-2004. At the time, they were perceived to have not drafted well:

[grade for past five Packers drafts]

C-

After a strong 2002 draft that brought them receiver Javon Walker (1st), fullback Najeh Davenport (4th) and defensive end Aaron Kampman (5th), the trend has been negative. Linebacker Nick Barnett (1st) was the only positive to come out of 2003, and the top of the 2004 draft is forgettable so far with cornerbacks Ahmad Carroll (1st) and Joey Thomas (3rd) headlining. Throw in the Jamal Reynolds first-round mistake in 2001, and you have the makings for a below average first half of the decade.

And still today the 2000-2004 drafts aren't percieved as smart or a strong foundation for Aaron Rodgers.

[Hitman21ST]

How are the OLB prospects looking?

[Dukes and Skins]

How are the OLB prospects looking?

Not a terribly strong class right now but there are a few studs right now with Robert Quinn(who is a DE but could play both DE or OLB in the NFL) Von Miller and Bruce Carter all being options at OLB. Carter I think would be best suited at ILB in the 3-4 but could be a hybrid at either ILB or OLB. Then you have a lot of guys who are DE's in college who are better suited as OLB's in the NFL like Bruce Miller from UCF and Ricky Elmore from Arizona who I've discussed earlier in the thread in case you want to see my evaluations on them

[Laron Burgundy]

I like Robert Quinn, but I have my reservations. Last highly drafted UNC d-line was Kentwan Balmer, he's been terrible. Likewise that UNC front 7 is stacked, it's no surprise Quinn will look good against UVA and BC when they are the 118th and 98th ranked offenses in Div 1A. And that 40 time is probably just coaching bullocks. Peppers ran a 4.68 on his pro day (pro days typically have lower times than the combine), so if peppers supposedly ran a 4.53 by the school times but his official pro day time was .15 higher, than my guess is Quinn's will be .15 higher and be closer to the 4.55 range. Still not bad, but not like vernon davis incredible, but to note Orakpo ran a 4.63 so anything within that range is still quick.

I know we're all terrified of Carter's possible collapse in this new d, but I don't know if drafting his replacement high is our best option. Of the top 10 3-4 OLB's in sacks last year, only 3 were first rounders and 1 was a second rounder. Of the top 10 WR in receiving yards last year, 4 were first rounders and another 3 were 2nd rounders. Of the top 10 qb in passing yards, 4 were first rounders, and another 3 were second rounders. And finally, of the top 10 rb in rushing yards, 7 were first rounders and another 2 were second rounders. Those, I think, will be the major areas of our team that we will consider using our first round pick on. We're unproven at wr, old at rb, unsure at qb (mcnabb might opt to not come back and he's old and we surely don't want grossman as our qb of the future) and we are unproven at olb (carter has failed at this transition once). Other positions that we need to fix typically don't require a top pick to fix.

It all depends on what happens during the season, of course, but if I had to prioritize our 1st rounder based on failing at all positions it would be qb>wr>olb>rb. QB's and WR's take awhile to develop, but qb is more important. Talented 3-4 olb's can be found in later rounds at a higher rate than qb's and wr's. And Shanahan doesn't draft rb's early and I fully expect rbbc while he's here, so no need to really ever spend a 1st on one. I think, lucky for us, this wr/qb class looks phenomenal.

[Laron Burgundy]

Crap, double post. My mistake.

[Oldskool]

YOU cited the first round picks to begin with as an indication of their smart drafting.

I beg to differ. Go back and I never once mentioned first round picks in my discussion.

We are not talking about FA, we are talking about how smart the Packers drafted prior to selecting Aaron Rodgers. If we want to bring FA into it, that changes the conversation (though it shouldn't matter as the only significant FA signed during this period was Al Harris - one guy in 5 years).

We are also not discussing coaching changes AFTER Rodgers was drafted, as that would have no bearing on the foundation that was in place BEFORE he was selected.

You cannot take them out of the discussion simply to make your argument more palatable. The coaching staff has direct aspect on this due to the fact that getting rid of the crappy DC's that they had did more to improve their defensive deficiencies than would have taking a DL instead of a QB. Even role players that come in via FA add up in the end and cannot be discounted.

All these aspects came together to allow the Packers to draft a QB in the first round of the 2005 draft as a luxury pick and not blown on a Rodgers when other aspects of the roster should have taken prescient.

[Going Commando]

I like Robert Quinn, but I have my reservations. Last highly drafted UNC d-line was Kentwan Balmer, he's been terrible. Likewise that UNC front 7 is stacked, it's no surprise Quinn will look good against UVA and BC when they are the 118th and 98th ranked offenses in Div 1A. And that 40 time is probably just coaching bullocks. Peppers ran a 4.68 on his pro day (pro days typically have lower times than the combine), so if peppers supposedly ran a 4.53 by the school times but his official pro day time was .15 higher, than my guess is Quinn's will be .15 higher and be closer to the 4.55 range. Still not bad, but not like vernon davis incredible, but to note Orakpo ran a 4.63 so anything within that range is still quick.

Robert Quinn isn't Kentwan Balmer, I wouldn't let him effect your opinion of Quinn. They don't even play the same position. I don't think he's relevant to Quinn's evaluation just like I didn't think Robert Gallery was relevant to Bryan Bulaga's. They are their own prospects. Quinn also wasn't facing the entire UVA or BC offense. He was facing individual matchups mostly, and watching them was what my evaluation was based on. It's simply not true that he didn't face quality in the BC game. Those cutups were of him specifically against Anthony Castonzo who the guys at ESPN consider the best LT in this year's class and a likely first round pick. And it's not like he only produced in those two games. He had 11 sacks and 19 TFL, that's a hugely productive sophomore year.

As for the 40 times, I don't doubt he'll run a slower time at the combine. But even if he runs .15 slower, legit 4.5 speed for a 270 pound linebacker is absurdly fast. I do disagree that pro-day times are usually faster than they are at the combine, especially in the past. The RCA dome had a very fast track and it's inside. A lot of pro-days are outdoors and they are run on all kinds of tracks. It varies widely depending on the school.

Lastly, I know UNC's front seven is loaded with NFL talent, that's why I focused on Quinn as an individual. He gets doubled less than he normally would because of the presence of Marvin Austin and Tydreke Powell, but he still got doubled in those videos and I can evaluate his skills in handling the double from the evidence in those short cutups. Other than that, having Marvin Austin beside him and Bruce Carter behind him doesn't change the speed of his first step. It doesn't change the way he uses his hands or reacts to plays. He's a defensive lineman, not a cornerback, I can evaluate him as an individual pretty easily. I don't think you really bring up any pointed criticisms of him as a player. My take on him is based on the specifics of his skill set that I've observed in those cutups (and in a few games I remember), you'll have to get into specifics to either argue for or against it. I think Quinn has a few knocks but none of them are ones you bring up.

I know we're all terrified of Carter's possible collapse in this new d, but I don't know if drafting his replacement high is our best option. Of the top 10 3-4 OLB's in sacks last year, only 3 were first rounders and 1 was a second rounder. Of the top 10 WR in receiving yards last year, 4 were first rounders and another 3 were 2nd rounders. Of the top 10 qb in passing yards, 4 were first rounders, and another 3 were second rounders. And finally, of the top 10 rb in rushing yards, 7 were first rounders and another 2 were second rounders. Those, I think, will be the major areas of our team that we will consider using our first round pick on. We're unproven at wr, old at rb, unsure at qb (mcnabb might opt to not come back and he's old and we surely don't want grossman as our qb of the future) and we are unproven at olb (carter has failed at this transition once). Other positions that we need to fix typically don't require a top pick to fix.

It all depends on what happens during the season, of course, but if I had to prioritize our 1st rounder based on failing at all positions it would be qb>wr>olb>rb. QB's and WR's take awhile to develop, but qb is more important. Talented 3-4 olb's can be found in later rounds at a higher rate than qb's and wr's. And Shanahan doesn't draft rb's early and I fully expect rbbc while he's here, so no need to really ever spend a 1st on one. I think, lucky for us, this wr/qb class looks phenomenal.

I don't think Shanahan has ever spent a first round pick on a receiver and I wouldn't expect him to now. I also am not even going to try to divine what our future plans will be at the QB position. If I had to guess, I'd say we're actually looking for McNabb to be the starter here for a long time by the way his contract talk has been. And now that John Beck got a reasonable extension, I'd say the backup spot might be spoken for as well. I certainly wouldn't count on us taking a QB this year. Perhaps not even in the next several.

I believe we are far more likely to see us take a defensive player in the first than any offensive skill position. I also think that, in general, we could use an infusion of talent into our defensive front seven. I didn't want us to stick a feather in our cap right after drafting Orakpo and signing Haynesworth and call it a day. I certainly don't want us to do it now after making a scheme change that will put a strain on our existing personnel.

But regardless of what our general roster needs are, at the end of the day you have to look at the prospects as individuals not as positions. My argument was that Robert Quinn was the marquee talent of this year's draft class at a position that fits into our scheme. When push comes to shove, can you grade the severity of a need and factor in the quality of the player available on your draft board? Does an A+ OLB equal a B NT or a B+ WR? Keep in mind you have to factor in historical trends determining position value in the draft as well. A need is a need except when it's a quarterback. Trying to postulate it any other way is too complicated, especially since all our needs are pretty equal in desperation anyway. The best way to draft is to just spend your time lining up your big board and then trust your evaluations. Shanahan and Allen are BPA drafters for the most part--they demonstrated that with the Trent Williams and Perry Riley picks. Those are the lines we should be thinking along too.

[darrelgreenie]

I also am not even going to try to divine what our future plans will be at the QB position. If I had to guess, I'd say we're actually looking for McNabb to be the starter here for a long time by the way his contract talk has been. And now that John Beck got a reasonable extension, I'd say the backup spot might be spoken for as well. I certainly wouldn't count on us taking a QB this year. Perhaps not even in the next several.

I still think we'll take a QB next year just not with an early pick, we'll probably take a developmental flier to see if the pan out.

And i think we'll continue to keep drafting developmental QBs unless the development fails and the need for a QB becomes more imminent.

I believe we are far more likely to see us take a defensive player in the first than any offensive skill position. I also think that, in general, we could use an infusion of talent into our defensive front seven. I didn't want us to stick a feather in our cap right after drafting Orakpo and signing Haynesworth and call it a day. I certainly don't want us to do it now after making a scheme change that will put a strain on our existing personnel.

I'm hoping for a NT or LOLB or maybe a S depending on how Moore comes back from his injury and plays as FS.

[The Tris]

All these aspects came together to allow the Packers to draft a QB in the first round of the 2005 draft as a luxury pick and not blown on a Rodgers when other aspects of the roster should have taken prescient.

The problem with your premise that the Packers changed DC's to allow them the luxury of drafting Aaron Rodgers was that Jim Bates was still the DC in 2005, the year they drafted Rodgers. So they would not have solved that issue until after they already made the luxury selection, in spite of their other glaring needs.

Regardless of that inconvenience in your logic, your premise of the Packers foundation in place prior to drafting Rodgers can be summed up as the below players then:

- a young LB (Brackett)

- two aging tackles (Clifton and Tauscher)

- a veteran WR (Driver)

- a FA CB (Harris)

- an aging pro bowl QB (Favre)

- a solid DLman (Kampman)

- a new DC that more effectively used the current personnel (Bates hired in 2005?)

Not sure how they had so much greater a foundation as the 2010 Redskins:

(Orakpo)

(not quite as aging Williams and Brown)

(Moss)

(Hall)

(McNabb)

(Haynesworth)

(Haslett)

I will grant that they had a young WR talent in Walker, who of course blew his knee up Rodgers rookie year and was off the team the next, but they also had glaring holes at S (from Sharpers departure before 2005), CB (where they wiffed at picks several time between 2000 and 2005 and would not be resolved until they brought in Woodson in 2006, again, after Rodgers), and defensive front 7 (where they used 3 of 4 first round picks after drafting Rodgers).

However, you can not deny that the season they drafted Rodgers, they went 4-12, fired the entire coaching staff, and basically rebuilt the team when Mike McCarthy took over. Hardly the foundation you claim. In fact, the 2005 roster includes only eight players (#2 WR Donald Driver, #2 TE Donald Lee, LT Chad Clifton, RT (moved to RG) Mark Tauscher), DE Aaron Kampman, MLB Nick Barnett, CB Al Harris, and FS Nick Collins) who would remain starters or backups just 3 years later in 2008 when Rodgers made his debut at QB.

Eight of 24 (yes, even the punters and kickers changed) is absolutely, positively not a foundation for a young QB. Green Bay had massive roster overhauls to make following Rodgers' selection, but put aside these huge needs to ensure they had their QB of the future.

3 years from now, I would expect that we have more than eight starters or backups on the roster who were on the team in 2010.

[theboomking]

Well, quite simply, he's the perfect strong side linebacker in a 3-4. Drafting Quinn could give us an unspeakably good pair of starting outside linebackers with Brian Orakpo. They would have the potential to be even better than DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer. Qinn is smart, plays the run well, and is a pass rushing terror. Plus he's been pretty durable in college, and has a nice level of fitness so he can play a high number of snaps. His versatility means that you can play him in nearly all of your 3-4 packages as well as on the line and never worry about selling your playcalls. And the boon he'd bring to our pass rush cannot be understated. I worry about Orakpo should Andre Carter's production get lost in the scheme transition, especially when Albert Haynesworth isn't on the field. Orakpo would be left as the sole source of consistent pressure in our front 7 and we'd have to start blitzing defensive backs to mix things up. Drafting Quinn would nullify that issue since you can keep them both on the field constantly. Add Albert Haynesworth into the equation, and I say this without hyperbole, I do not think you could block all three except sporadically. Most downs, one or more would get a pressure. And with the kind of support Quinn would receive from Orakpo and Haynesworth, It'd probably be only a matter of time before Quinn would be considered the best player on our team.

The problem with drafting Quinn is that he might be a very high pick. He could very well go first overall and I sincerely hope we aren't drafting first overall come April. But an undersized, tweener type like Quinn hasn't been taken first in at least a decade. Chris Long went second but that hasn't worked out well, and it was to play RE in a 4-3. Gaines Adams went 4th but he never panned out in Tampa Bay even before his tragic death. Derrick Harvey went a little bit later at 8 but he's venturing on bust territory as well. Jammal Anderson had the size but lacked the strength to be an every down lineman and was a speed rusher in college who relied on a finesse game to get pressure. He's considered a disappointment in Atlanta too.

I actually doubt a 4-3 team picking in the top five will take Quinn because of a perceived lack of position value for a player best suited to 3-4 OLB. Typically, if an edge rusher is taken in the top 5, it's by a 4-3 team and he has to have a physique like Mario Williams. Other than that, the player has to either be an every down lineman like a Suh, McCoy, Jackson, Dorsey, Okoye, or Ellis. Or he has to be an elite 4-3 weakside linebacker like Hawk, Rivers, Mayo (though he plays ILB), or Sims. Occasionally, a 4-3 team will take an elite LB like Curry or McClain to play on the strong side or at ILB.

3-4 OLBs have surprisingly poor value in the draft even though they routinely fill up the top 5 sacks and pressures lists. Remember how far Brian Orakpo fell in 2009? He might have fallen further if he'd been pigeonholed as a 3-4 OLB. Shawne Merriman and DeMarcus Ware dropped in 2005. Anthony Spencer fell all of the way to 26 in 2007. I think there is a chance that Robert Quinn could drop out of the top 8. Perhaps if we go 8-8 and pick around 12, he'd be available to us. If the price wasn't too absurd, I'd even advocate trading up to pick him if he made it out of the top 8. Quinn is my early favorite player for us in the class ahead of Paea and is at the top of my wishlist.

My favorite play from the UVA video is the replay at 2:00. Watch Quinn's feet in the beginning of the play. He jab steps to the inside, then bursts around the outside of the OT, clubbing the tackle's hands out of the way. I also love the way Quinn plays the run, and unlike a lot of pure speed guys, Quinn rushes the passer with power and has a great inside power move.

I also love what Quinn would bring to the table scheme-wise. You could use Quinn and Orakpo interchangeably, very effectively disguising your coverages and blitz packages. I also agree that with blitzing Quinn, Orakpo and Haynesworth, that you should be able to get extremely consistent pressure.

I think you may be underestimating Quinn's draft value though. I have a hard time seeing him falling out of the top 5. You have to project him as at least as good a prospect as Gaines Adams and Chris Long. The only way we are picking top 10 is if Trent Williams and or Donovan McNabb get hurt, and then I have to think that we'd be tempted as a team to draft a QB. Given that we also have Orakpo, and that most teams don't draft to reinforce their strengths, I also have to think that we might look at DL or at CB if we are drafting that high. Just for the record, I love the philosophy of drafting to reinforce strengths, especially with regards to the pass rush. In a perfect world however, I'd rather sign Lamarr Woodley, who is an URFA this year, and draft DL and OL in the first two rounds. I'm sure the Steelers won't let him go however.

Just for the record, based on his tape, I don't think there is any way that Quinn runs a 4.4. He looks like a 4.6 guy, maybe a hair faster than Orakpo.

[The Tris]

@joeschad Star North Carolina DE Robert Quinn is being investigated for possible illegal interaction with an agent

Would be interesting if he was suspended for part of the season if he took a Dez Bryant type slip down the boards.

[Going Commando]

@joeschad Star North Carolina DE Robert Quinn is being investigated for possible illegal interaction with an agent

Would be interesting if he was suspended for part of the season if he took a Dez Bryant type slip down the boards.

I just read that this morning. So are Quan Sturdivant, Bruce Carter, Kendric Burney, and Charles Brown on the defensive side of the ball. I haven't heard anything about Tydreke Powell or Deunta Williams. Marvin Austin is out indefinitely.

I got super excited when I heard the news. I'm hoping for some sort of suspension to hurt his draft stock, but nothing that will kill it. I don't think Quinn is a character problem, so the talk of suspensions don't really bother me on that end. All in all, this might be our best bet for having him drop to us if we pick in the teens or twenties.

[Dukes and Skins]

I just read that this morning. So are Quan Sturdivant, Bruce Carter, Kendric Burney, and Charles Brown on the defensive side of the ball. I haven't heard anything about Tydreke Powell or Deunta Williams. Marvin Austin is out indefinitely.

I got super excited when I heard the news. I'm hoping for some sort of suspension to hurt his draft stock, but nothing that will kill it. I don't think Quinn is a character problem, so the talk of suspensions don't really bother me on that end. All in all, this might be our best bet for having him drop to us if we pick in the teens or twenties.

I hope we can get Quinn he's definitely on my list of the top draft prospects if not my #1 guy because of how physically dominating he is. Him and Orakpo coming off the edge with a DL of Haynesworth Kemoeatu and Carriker could be a very dangerous group along with our LB's of Fletcher and McIntosh(assuming we can resign him)