Homer: 10 (semi-) bold predictions for 2010

[themurf]

(photo by Brian Murphy)

After an action-packed offseason, which saw the arrival of a new general manager, head coach, quarterback and at least 30 other new faces, the Washington Redskins officially kick off training camp today. In keeping with tradition, I present to you my 10 (semi-) bold predictions for the 2010 season.

Last year, you may remember, I had pretty solid results: Stephon Heyer over Mike Williams at right tackle, Colt Brennan continued to be irrelevant and Antwaan Randle El did, in fact give me an aneurism. I do feel obligated to point out though that I missed badly on DeAngelo Hall as the defensive MVP (should have been London Fletcher) and Ladell Betts as a fantasy football sleeper pick (Fred Davis).

Okay, enough about the past. Here’s the list:

1. Kyle Shanahan was the team’s best offseason addition.

The Redskins improved drastically at several key positions, including general manager, head coach and quarterback. But the acquisition that has me most excited is Kyle, not Mike, Shanahan. I’ve had a chance to talk to a couple players this offseason about his philosophy, and everyone we speak to on the subject gets excited. He’s not trying to wow anyone with a 700-page playbook or his bingo-calling skills. No, he’s known for turning mediocre offenses into juggernauts.

Take, for example, the Houston Texans. They have Matt Schaub at quarterback, Steve Slaton at running back and Andre Johnson at receiver. Of the three, only Johnson can truly be considered a top-10 talent at his respective position. The rest of the roster is even more obscure, with no names such as Arian Foster, Joel Dreessen and David Anderson logging playing time. And yet, Houston had the NFL’s top offense in 2009. Why? Because of Kyle Shanahan.

I asked one of the Redskins players what makes his offense different than others and the answer surprised me.

He trusts his players. If they’re covered, then he wants them to do what’s necessary to get open. He doesn’t want his wide outs to run exactly seven yards, turn around and hold their hands up in the air praying the quarterback can beat double coverage. No, he encourages the receivers to think like they’re playing basketball, rather than football.

It might not sound like much, but it could be enough to finally get solid production out of a guy like Devin Thomas, who doesn’t exactly have the reputation for running the most crisp routes. This is just one of the reasons I’m legitimately excited for the Kyle Shanahan era. He’s playing by a different set of rules and encouraging his players to think outside the box. That’s the kind of mindset that’s been sorely lacking over the better part of a decade as the Redskins have consistently struggled to put points on the board.

2. Malcolm Kelly isn’t going anywhere. Neither is Albert Haynesworth.

Nothing against beat writer Ryan O’Halloran, who was the first guy to suggest Kelly won’t survive roster cuts, but I highly doubt the Redskins release Malcolm. Even with his injured hamstring, I find it difficult to believe the Redskins would cut the cord on a youngster heading into his third season.

Honestly, what’s the biggest difference between Kelly and Thomas at this point in their young careers? Opportunity and injuries. Thomas has been given the opportunities, while Kelly has battled injuries.

But here’s something you may not know – Mike Shanahan has suggested to his players that Kelly might just have the best hands out of the 11 receivers currently on the roster. He apparently sees enough from Kelly to think he’s got someone who can contribute offensively, so it would come as a surprise to me if Kelly was seeking employment elsewhere by the end of training camp. The only way I could see him being let go is if he simply cannot get healthy and a guy like Joey Galloway has the best training camp of his life. And nothing against Galloway, who has had a lengthy and productive career, but he’s only one year younger than his position coach. If Kelly and Galloway are close, you’d have to figure a tie goes to the 23-year-old.

Oh, and no need to spend a bunch of time hypothesizing about why Haynesworth isn’t going to be traded or cut. He’ll show up and begrudgingly play wherever the team wants him to. Or he won’t. Either way, he’ll be wearing the burgundy and gold this season.

Speaking of Fat Albert …

3. Ma’ake Kemoeatu will start more games at nose tackle than Haynesworth.

The biggest reason for all the drama this offseason was because Haynesworth got it in his head that the coaching staff was going to ignore his impressive eight-year career and suddenly ask Albert to completely overhaul his game. But the only reason things got to this point is because he was too immature to pick up the phone and ask what exactly his role in this 3-4 defense will be. Had he done that, I’m confident that the Redskins could have enjoyed their first drama-free offseason in a long, long time.

4. The Porta-John backfield will party like it’s 2006.

I’ve got a sneaking suspicion that a slimmed down and motivated Clinton Portis will revert back to the running back we all know and love. It’s not difficult to envision Portis easily eclipsing the 1,000-yard mark, and it shouldn’t come as a surprise if Larry Johnson finishes the season with 10 or more touchdowns. Sure, these two are competitors and they’d both like to start. But I think they’ll see that, at this point in their careers, they’ll be good for each other as they work together to wear down opposing defenses.

Two more thoughts on the Redskins running back situation:

4a. Brian Westbrook ends up somewhere else.

This one is pretty self explanatory.

4b. Willie Parker gets beat out by Ryan Torain and doesn’t make the 53-man roster.

For a guy with the nickname “Fast,” he’s been anything but in the practices I’ve seen over the last few months. When I’ve mentioned to some of his teammates that I don’t think Parker will be on the roster Week 1, none of them seem shocked. I’ve even had one or two guys basically say, “Yeah, that wouldn’t stun me.”

5. Carlos Rogers will set a career-high for interceptions.

Click here for the full article.

[Hitman21ST]

5. Carlos Rogers will set a career-high for interceptions.

I'm calling at least 6 for him this year...

[Chachie]

I think you gambled less this year, Murf.

I also hope you are wrong about Westbrook. That guy could be a serious shot in the arm for us late in the season when CP begins to wear down as has been typical for him the last 2-3 years.

[AllBusiness]

I'll pitch in for Rogers a pair of prosthetic hands, if he'll just CATCH something thrown at him!

[bikie]

I agree with everything except cooley having a pro-bowl year... I think with a talent like davis in the mix, I think the numbers will be too spread out...otherwise, I think the predictions are optimistic but not unrealistic...

[honejc]

one interception by carlos would impress me...

stone hands can catch all the ball sin practice, but when it comes down to it, his stone hands serve him in clutch situations

[santana_4_prez]

I'm right there with ya on 80-90% of them, but not sure about Coooooooooley making the pro bowl. I have a feeling Fred Davis is going to be a BEAST.

[santana_4_prez]

How did last year's predictions turn out? Link?

[themurf]

I agree with everything except cooley having a pro-bowl year... I think with a talent like davis in the mix, I think the numbers will be too spread out...otherwise, I think the predictions are optimistic but not unrealistic...

It's okay. I won't say I told you so at the end of the season.

Just remember this: some guy allegedly named Brent Celek went off for 76 catches, 971 yards and eight touchdowns last season by simply being there when McNabb needed to get rid of the ball.

[themurf]

How did last year's predictions turn out? Link?

Scroll back up to the second paragraph and click the link that says "pretty solid results." I feel pretty good about most of them, although my love for Jason Campbell didn't help.

[illone]

I think you gambled less this year, Murf.

I also hope you are wrong about Westbrook. That guy could be a serious shot in the arm for us late in the season when CP begins to wear down as has been typical for him the last 2-3 years.

You don't think that was directly related to the Oline wearing down, do ya?

[MattFancy]

I think Rogers will have a solid year. He knows this is a make or break year for him.

[illone]

If anyone sets a career mark for INTs it will surely be Hall, but I do like your optimism:ols:

[TD_washingtonredskins]

I really want 4B to happen (Ryan Torrain). It would be great to feel as though we have our RB of the future already on the roster.

[santana_4_prez]

Scroll back up to the second paragraph and click the link that says "pretty solid results." I feel pretty good about most of them, although my love for Jason Campbell didn't help.

Thanks, probably better than what I would have predicted!

[skins island connection]

I'll pitch in for Rogers a pair of prosthetic hands, if he'll just CATCH something thrown at him!

I hope he learns to catch the ball, but honestly I don't think 'stick um'" would help him. Maybe if they made the football from velcro A and gave CR gloves with velcro B; nah.

My bold but obvious prediction is at some point I will end up cursing the t.v. watching LL do his Underdog flying routine...

[themurf]

If anyone sets a career mark for INTs it will surely be Hall, but I do like your optimism:ols:

How about this? I'll bet you a six pack of the winner's choice that Carlos Rogers sets his career high this season before DeAngelo Hall. "Stone Hands" Rogers needs three picks while Hall needs seven for a new personal best.

If you're scared, say you're scared. hehehe.

[illone]

I really want 4B to happen (Ryan Torrain). It would be great to feel as though we have our RB of the future already on the roster.

Kid was a BEAST in college and he played for my favorite team, so I'd be ecstatic if that happened.

[illone]

How about this? I'll bet you a six pack of the winner's choice that Carlos Rogers sets his career high this season before DeAngelo Hall. "Stone Hands" Rogers needs three picks while Hall needs seven for a new personal best.

If you're scared, say you're scared. hehehe.

I like Newcaste;)

[Kindred]

9. Chris Cooley is headed back to the Pro Bowl. Ditto for Brian Orakpo.

I’m a big Fred Davis fan and I think he’ll continue to improve as his gains more and more experience. But too many people seem to be rushing ahead to push Cooley out the door. That’s something I just don’t get. He’s been the team’s best weapon for a while now and McNabb loves a dependable tight end. Without having a skilled pass-catching running back like Westbrook to dump swing passes to, McNabb is going to be looking for a tight end as his safety valve when defenses turn up the heat. That guy will most likely be Cooley.

As for Orakpo, this is the year he officially takes over. Nothing against London Fletcher, Haynesworth or anyone else, but Orakpo is going to be the face of the defense sooner rather than later. Mark my words.

Nevertheless, Davis was out in Arizona working out with Dmac while Cooley enjoyed his time off. I think Dmac will turn to Davis more than Cooley out of familiarity & comfort level.

Also, whats the bold prediction on the Redskin's record this season?

[brianm23]

I wouldn't call these "bold predictions", more like "no brainers". Bold is saying that LJ will end up with more yards than Portis. That is bold. (using that as an example)

That said, I agree with the predictions with the exception of maybe Cooley making the Pro-Bowl. I think either Davis or Cooley will make the Pro-Bowl. If Cooley doesn't make it, Davis will. So I sorta agree, but not totally.

Did Carlos Rogers learn to catch in the off-season? If not, I doubt he gets his INT career mark.

[themurf]

I like Newcaste;)

Does that mean we're on?

I wouldn't call these "bold predictions", more like "no brainers". Bold is saying that LJ will end up with more yards than Portis. That is bold. (using that as an example)

That said, I agree with the predictions with the exception of maybe Cooley making the Pro-Bowl. I think either Davis or Cooley will make the Pro-Bowl. If Cooley doesn't make it, Davis will. So I sorta agree, but not totally.

Did Carlos Rogers learn to catch in the off-season? If not, I doubt he gets his INT career mark.

I'll gladly point out the use of the word "semi-" in my headline. I'm not trying to suggest anything crazy - like Rex Grossman taking McNabb's job or LaRon Landry successfully navigating a double move. I'm just putting my thoughts out there to spark some conversation on the start of training camp.

One more thought: I've said all offseason that, to me, wide receiver is the biggest question mark with the Redskins. A close second is special teams. Ethan Albright and Hunter Smith were proven commodities who I felt safe with. They're both gone and have been replaced by bargain basement no-namers.

Plus, we don't know for sure who will be the primary punt and/or kick returners this season. So really, if you're not sold on Josh Bidwell, then there really isn't anywhere on special teams you feel all that great about.

[Dick Edds]

nice write-up Murph ... getting more and more excited.

[GibbsFactor]

I'm just excited about this new front. I think the edges are our only weakness. I think if our corners can press and we can keep Landry from ever taking a step forward we will be fine in the pass defense portion of the game.

I'm concerned about our edge containment.

I think the offense all centers around Kelly and Thomas. I think Davis and Cooley will be great and we'll be able to be in 2 tight end sets often but it has to come back to Thomas being a threat alongside Moss. Both will get their shots at one on one coverage and McNabb loves the deep ball. I think our Oline will be okay but am worried about the depth. If either of our tackles misses any time we are in a world of hurt.

[brianm23]

One more thought: I've said all offseason that, to me, wide receiver is the biggest question mark with the Redskins. A close second is special teams.

Plus, we don't know for sure who will be the primary punt and/or kick returners this season. So really, if you're not sold on Josh Bidwell, then there really isn't anywhere on special teams you feel all that great about.

I agree 100% about the WRs being the biggest question mark at this point.

I assume Phillip Buchanon is going to be the special teams guy, but who the **** really knows at this piont.

Anything on special teams at this point is a upgrade over ARE.