To Those Banking On Another Brady

[Looking For Number Four]

Well, the evidence provided in the OP (incomplete as it is), mostly says that there are a lot of 1st round QBs starting in the NFL. Even then, he lists a couple guys (Vick, Leinart) who don't even start on the teams that they are on now.

He also leaves out a few QBs. How about Matt Cassell? (7th round pick) Jake Delhomme? (undrafted) Kyle Orton? (3rd Round) David Garrard? (4th Round) Marc Bulger? (6th Round) Chad Henne? (2nd round)

This isn't even talking about Kevin Kolb, who looks to be McNabb's eventual successor. He was a 2nd round pick.

Not all of these guys are great, but the same could be said for the original list.

First, I apologized for the thread mania, I will not start another one for a while. I really am sorry for doing so, so often.

Second, those who I left out are not and will not ever be Franchise QBs and they were taken outside of the 1st round. Thank you for throwing them into the thread and I will add them after this post.

If you are going to bash Vick (who has an NFL record and been to the playoffs) or Leinart (who has the same amount of experience/reps as Kolb) while boasting Kevin Kolb I think your logic could have a flaw. Cassel greatly benefited from the NE system and talent and I doubt he ever touches 4000 yards or 30+ TDs which is what it takes, IMO, to be a franchise QB. People taken in the top 5 picks, typically, have HUGE potential/high ceilings. People taken in the Campbell range, usually, don't have near the upside. Their are numerous expcetions, but in general, this holds true. Which I think the QBs you listed proved quite well.

[Commander Adama]

First, I apologized for the thread mania, I will not start another one for a while. I really am sorry for doing so, so often.

Why apologize for that? Starting a thread that has actual points and merits for debate, is great. Keep it up.

[NewCliche21]

Vick has been deep into the playoffs and set the NFL record for rushing yards by a QB, which led to his team leading the league in rushing.

Sanchez hit a 80 yard bomb while throwing for over 250 yards and two TDs against a Superbowl team his rookie season.

Vince Young has also been to the playoffs and took a 0-6 team over and proceeded to go 8-2. The only change on that team was him.

Alex Smith threw 18 TDs and did play a single snap until Week 7. He was also able to amass those with only throwing 12 INTs, completing over 60% of his passes. No other QB has been given the starting job, had it taken away, given it back, had it taken away. That is simply not how you enable a QB to develop, grow, and succeede.

There is certainly not enough data to make any determinations regarding Stafford, Leinart, or Quinn. Campbell was taken in the deepest of the 1st round of any of these QBs and appears to have the lowest ceiling, thus far.

I was not listing this QBs to state that they were taking in the 1st round and have proved you must take them there. I listed them to show how many current NFL QBs were taken in the 1st round. Give your conclusion, I think we can all agree that a 50/50 shot on striking gold is probably worth the risk.

Wow. Owned!

[Looking For Number Four]

Why apologize for that? Starting a thread that has actual points and merits for debate, is great. Keep it up.

Wow, that was very generous. As you can see, I am fairly new here, so I don't want to overstay my welcome. However, I have a couple of ideas brewing and a few sites and articles that might be intriguing that I will post after the heat surrounding my thread mania cools a bit. In particular, a very similar post with some scouts review prior to their draft regarding left tackles. Thanks again for the support, I am profoundly pleased you enjoy the threads. :thumbsup::party::chestram:

[TheLongshot]

First, I apologized for the thread mania, I will not start another one for a while. I really am sorry for doing so, so often.

Second, those who I left out are not and will not ever be Franchise QBs and they were taken outside of the 1st round. Thank you for throwing them into the thread and I will add them after this post.

If you are going to bash Vick (who has an NFL record and been to the playoffs) or Leinart (who has the same amount of experience/reps as Kolb) while boasting Kevin Kolb I think your logic could have a flaw. Cassel greatly benefited from the NE system and talent and I doubt he ever touches 4000 yards or 30+ TDs which is what it takes, IMO, to be a franchise QB. People taken in the top 5 picks, typically, have HUGE potential/high ceilings. People taken in the Campbell range, usually, don't have near the upside. Their are numerous expcetions, but in general, this holds true. Which I think the QBs you listed proved quite well.

I only brought up Kolb because of what you brought up. You can strike that from the argument if you wish, but you have to strike Vick and Leinart from the argument, since neither are starters right now.

I can't say I can agree with your assessment of what makes a franchise QB. Also, your list doesn't seem to match up with that idea, since many on that list have yet to prove that they are franchise QBs. Meanwhile, Delhomme took his team to the SB.

QBs aren't typically drafted high because of high ceilings, but for being the most "NFL Ready". Those who have been drafted high because of potential (JaMarcus Russell, Akili Smith come to mind) have more often than not been busts. Even those who seem to be the most NFL ready have fallen on their faces in the adjustment to the NFL.

As for Cassel, that goes into environment, which is important for any QB, no matter where you are drafted. It is hard to be great on a bad team, tho there are some who deal better with it than some others. In the end, QB play often depends on the players around him.

[Commander Adama]

QBs aren't typically drafted high because of high ceilings, but for being the most "NFL Ready". Those who have been drafted high because of potential (JaMarcus Russell, Akili Smith come to mind) have more often than not been busts. Even those who seem to be the most NFL ready have fallen on their faces in the adjustment to the NFL.

I always thought the reason why teams tend to not want to draft QB's high is if the QB is a failure, then they are stuck with some over-priced schmuck. That huge amount of money spent on a draft bust can hurt a team worse than anything else. It is also a huge reason why they are talking about a rookie cap and pre-determined salaries. If you get drafted in round one with pick 25 you get this much for 3 years, etc. Then if they are great, the team can re-sign them to that huge contract in order to keep them. Again, only for proven commodities, and not some Jamarcus Russell.

[TheLongshot]

I always thought the reason why teams tend to not want to draft QB's high is if the QB is a failure, then they are stuck with some over-priced schmuck. That huge amount of money spent on a draft bust can hurt a team worse than anything else. It is also a huge reason why they are talking about a rookie cap and pre-determined salaries. If you get drafted in round one with pick 25 you get this much for 3 years, etc. Then if they are great, the team can re-sign them to that huge contract in order to keep them. Again, only for proven commodities, and not some Jamarcus Russell.

Actually, that's true across the board for all positions. Teams are more likely to take the safe player than they are with someone with a little more risk associated with them. (That is, if you are not the Raiders.)

[JaimeDeCurry]

So...the point of the thread is better players are usually taken in the first round.

Shocker there, huh? It's almost like scouts are paid to do a job or something!

[paloosa]

The OP doesn't prove anything at all because QB's that play at highly successful colleges and universities will get looked at first but that doesn't mean they are better than any QB in the draft. Take a look at the list and only 6 of them have won a Super Bowl and only three of the others have even made it there. So not every high profile QB is going to come to thje NFL and be instantly successful especially if you listen to Todd McShay and Mel Kiper.

[redskins55]

average QBs RARELY win super bowls. See the History of the NFL.

Lets go backwards here...

Average QB's to win Super Bowl

Eli Manning

Brad Johnson

Trent Dilfer

Mark Rypien

Jeff Hostetler

Doug Williams

Phil Simms

Jim McMahon

Jim Plunkett

Joe Theisman

Ken Stabler

Of the 27 Super Bowl Winning QBs 11 would be considered average because they wern't good enough to get into the HOF or haven't produced consistent career numbers. That wouldn't necessarily constitute "RARELY" in my book.

John Elway didnt win it without Terrell Davis

Troy Aikman didn't win it without Emmit Smith

Terry Bradshaw didint win it without that defense and Joe Green

Joe Montana didnt win it without a defense and Ronnie Lott

The list goes on and on. The point is TEAMS WIN THE SUPERBOWL not QBs

[Looking For Number Four]

I only brought up Kolb because of what you brought up. You can strike that from the argument if you wish, but you have to strike Vick and Leinart from the argument, since neither are starters right now.

I can't say I can agree with your assessment of what makes a franchise QB. Also, your list doesn't seem to match up with that idea, since many on that list have yet to prove that they are franchise QBs. Meanwhile, Delhomme took his team to the SB.

QBs aren't typically drafted high because of high ceilings, but for being the most "NFL Ready". Those who have been drafted high because of potential (JaMarcus Russell, Akili Smith come to mind) have more often than not been busts. Even those who seem to be the most NFL ready have fallen on their faces in the adjustment to the NFL.

As for Cassel, that goes into environment, which is important for any QB, no matter where you are drafted. It is hard to be great on a bad team, tho there are some who deal better with it than some others. In the end, QB play often depends on the players around him.

I could be profoundly wrong, but if I were to pick one aspect of all the busts it is QB IQ. Ryan Leaf never demonstrated great IQ, he has the arm strength and numbers, nothing more. Russell, Smith, Leftwhich, Eli, Carr, and so on all had the physical tools and/or played in pro style offenses and in the end those paled by comparison to their QB IQ. You can tell from their interviews to their decision making on the field, a la Jason Campbell. Bradford is as quick witted as they come, that is were my confidence comes, and the line I draw between him and the busts.

I disagree with your argument regarding Cassel. Kurt Warner went into STL and immediately changed the franchise completely, which fell immediately after his departure. He then went into ARZ and did the exact same thing. The difference between what NE was and is, the fact Bledsoe went away and Brady took over. NO depended upon Deuce to carry their entire offense and was a failed franchise, then, Brees came in and changed the completely in his 1st season. Peyton Manning did the exact same thing for the Colts. If we were to pick the biggest difference between Russell and all of these QBs it would not be that they played in pro-style offenses in college or that they have more arm strength (none do), it is that they are brilliant went it comes to being a field general. They make quick, clean, crisp throws to the right reads and have the vision to see what the defense is going to do before they do it, a la Peyton last weekend against the number one pass defense.

QB IQ

[redskins55]

The OP doesn't prove anything at all because QB's that play at highly successful colleges and universities will get looked at first but that doesn't mean they are better than any QB in the draft. Take a look at the list and only 6 of them have won a Super Bowl and only three of the others have even made it there. So not every high profile QB is going to come to thje NFL and be instantly successful especially if you listen to Todd McShay and Mel Kiper.

Exactly..

Football is all politics.. ESPECIALLY now!

The big names in high school go to the top colleges,then the top schools get the most exposure and the NFL drafts them first. It means nothing! At least back in the

day GM's actually did real scouting drafting players from small colleges and universities in the first rounds.

[TheLongshot]

I could be profoundly wrong, but if I were to pick one aspect of all the busts it is QB IQ. Ryan Leaf never demonstrated great IQ, he has the arm strength and numbers, nothing more. Russell, Smith, Leftwhich, Eli, Carr, and so on all had the physical tools and/or played in pro style offenses and in the end those paled by comparison to their QB IQ. You can tell from their interviews to their decision making on the field, a la Jason Campbell. Bradford is as quick witted as they come, that is were my confidence comes, and the line I draw between him and the busts.

Personally, I think football IQ is difficult to measure, especially since college ball seems to be simpler in a lot of ways. That's particularly true of Bradford, who is coming from the spread offense. One of the things I've also noticed is that some guys get pushed up the draft chart because of the lack of other options (David Carr and Alex Smith).

In itself, tho, football IQ doesn't get it done. No one doubts that Tim Tebow has a great mind, but it is all the other things that leave questions in people's minds. Mechanics, arm strength and being able to make most of the throws are still important.

I disagree with your argument regarding Cassel. Kurt Warner went into STL and immediately changed the franchise completely, which fell immediately after his departure. He then went into ARZ and did the exact same thing.

Not really. You are leaving out his decline in St Louis, his year with the Giants, which was mostly unremarkable, then a year with the Cards, which the reaction after that was to draft Lineart. It is only after Lineart got benched that Warner was able to rejuvenate himself.

As for Cassel, we will have to wait and see. Unfortunately, I haven't seen enough of him to get a feel for how good of a QB he could be. But, all QBs need their supporting casts, no matter how smart they are.

[Looking For Number Four]

The OP doesn't prove anything at all because QB's that play at highly successful colleges and universities will get looked at first but that doesn't mean they are better than any QB in the draft. Take a look at the list and only 6 of them have won a Super Bowl and only three of the others have even made it there. So not every high profile QB is going to come to thje NFL and be instantly successful especially if you listen to Todd McShay and Mel Kiper.

A top 11 pick QB has won the last 4 Super Bowls, and could 5 come Super Bowl Sunday.

Supber Bowl QBs past 12 years

John Elway (#1, overall), 9 Pro Bowls, 2 Super Bowl wins

Peyton Manning(#1 overall), one the best ever, most 4,000 yards seasons of all-time, 10 Pro Bowls

Donovan McNabb (#2), 5 NFC Championships, 6 Pro Bowls, 1 Super Bowl

Eli Manning (#1), 1 Pro Bowl, 1 Super Bowl (win), 1 Super Bowl MVP

McNair (#2), 3 Pro Bowls, 1 Super Bowl (lost), over 30,000 yards

Collins (#5 overall), 2 Pro Bowls, 1 life changing/jaw breaking hit, 1 Super Bowl (lost)

Roethlisberger (#11), 2 Super Bowls (won, won), threw for 500 yards in a game last season

Probably everyone except Eli Manning and Key Collins go into Hall of Fame, 5 of 7 top 11 draft pick, past 12 year Super Bowl QB... Maybe McNair just misses, I doubt it though....

-----------------------------------------------

Bret Favre (rd. 2), 11 Pro Bowls, 1 Super Bowl (lost)

Tom Brady (rd. 6)- 5 Pro Bowls, 2 Super Bowl MVP, 4,000 most every year, 4 Super Bowls (won 3)

Grossman (#22), was there becuase of defense

Warner (Undrafted), truly an enigma, 3 Super Bowls (won 1 of 3)

Delhomme (Undrafted), I am not even going to take the time, 1 Super Bowl (lost)

Brad Johnson (rd. 9), 2 Pro Bowls, threw for 215 yards in his only Super Bowl (won)

Matt Hasselbeck (rd. 6)- 3 Pro Bowls, 1 Super Bowl (lost)

Rich Gannon (rd. 4), threw Super Bowl record 5 interceptions and lost; went to 4 straight Pro Bowls after having Jerry Rice and Tim Brown in Gruden West Coast offense, 1 Super Bowl (lost)

Chris Chandler (rd. 3), 2 Pro Bowls, 1 Super Bowl (lost)

Outside of Kurt Warner, Tom Brady, and Bret Favre there are no Hall of Fame QBs in this list... 3 of 9

[Looking For Number Four]

Personally, I think football IQ is difficult to measure, especially since college ball seems to be simpler in a lot of ways. That's particularly true of Bradford, who is coming from the spread offense. One of the things I've also noticed is that some guys get pushed up the draft chart because of the lack of other options (David Carr and Alex Smith).

In itself, tho, football IQ doesn't get it done. No one doubts that Tim Tebow has a great mind, but it is all the other things that leave questions in people's minds. Mechanics, arm strength and being able to make most of the throws are still important.

Not really. You are leaving out his decline in St Louis, his year with the Giants, which was mostly unremarkable, then a year with the Cards, which the reaction after that was to draft Lineart. It is only after Lineart got benched that Warner was able to rejuvenate himself.

As for Cassel, we will have to wait and see. Unfortunately, I haven't seen enough of him to get a feel for how good of a QB he could be. But, all QBs need their supporting casts, no matter how smart they are.

I agree, that the mechanics and physical tools need to be there but they can all be there and without the IQ it is all for nothing. Tebow's IQ is debatable, he hardly ever threw the ball and was typically the beneficiary of blown coverage or players like Harvin...read this:

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft10/insider/news/story?id=4724185

As strong as the YPA total is, this metric isn't entirely in Tebow's favor because of the lack of pass volume. He averaged only six vertical passes per game; if that rate were applied to a 16-game NFL season, it would equal only 96 pass attempts. To put that into perspective, consider that even the vertically pass-challenged Buffalo Bills teams of the past few years made it into triple-digit territory here.

That isn't the only reason to think that Tebow's vertical game might not be all the numbers say it is cracked up to be. For example, his totals on individual vertical routes were a mixed bag. He was 4-for-16 on go routes, but two of those completions came via blown coverages. Those don't happen anywhere nearly as often in the pros as they do in college, and a 2-for-14 non-blown-coverage showing on that route type simply wouldn't cut it at the next level.

Tebow also fared very poorly in the bad-decision metric. This metric gauges how many times a quarterback makes a mistake with the ball that leads either to a turnover or a near turnover (dropped interception, fumble that his team recovers, etc.). Tebow's 3.4 percent rate here isn't quite in Jay Cutler territory, but it would rank near the bottom of the league in most seasons.

[NewCliche21]

Bret Favre (rd. 2), 11 Pro Bowls, 1 Super Bowl (lost)

May wanna fix that.

[icbmayday]

I get the post and I doubt we will be able to find a QB that good, that late

[Looking For Number Four]

May wanna fix that.

I am only using the last 12 years, 13 years ago he did win.......

After losing two straight games in November (one to the rival Dallas Cowboys), they finished off the regular season winning their remaining five games, including dominating wins over playoff teams Denver Broncos, 41–6, and Minnesota Vikings, 38–10. The Packers also had the best defense in the league in both points and yards... It was his second year and the defense played a HUGE part in that Super Bowl, more so, IMO, than the loss..

The Packers were favored to win the game by 14 points, largely because many thought the Patriots were a Cinderella team, and because of the recent dominance of the NFC in Super Bowl games.

Six days before the Super Bowl, in an article by Will McDonough, the Globe reported Parcells would leave the Patriots after the Super Bowl to become the coach of the New York Jets. The book Patriot Reign alleges the Patriots have cell phone records showing Parcells was in constant contact with the Jets during the week.

To his credit:

Green Bay then opened up the scoring with Brett Favre's 54-yard touchdown pass to Andre Rison on their second offensive play of the game.

Favre threw a Super Bowl record 81-yard touchdown pass to receiver Antonio Freeman, putting the Packers back in the lead, 17-14

To his team's credit:

Packers defensive back Mike Prior intercepted a long pass that was intended for wide receiver Shawn Jefferson,

Packers defensive back Doug Evans intercepted a pass from Bledsoe at the New England 28-yard line.

GB - TD: Desmond Howard 99 yard kickoff return

Bledsoe finished the game with 11 more pass completions (25) then Favre, but only 7 more total passing yards (253). His four interceptions tied a Super Bowl record.

[NewCliche21]

I am only using the last 12 years, 13 years ago he did win.......

My bad, didn't read that part. :doh:

[Riggo-toni]

It should probably be pointed out that Brees was taken as the 32nd pick back when there were only 31 teams, so he's really the equivalent to the last pick of the first round nowadays.

[Taylor 36]

It should probably be pointed out that Brees was taken as the 32nd pick back when there were only 31 teams, so he's really the equivalent to the last pick of the first round nowadays.

Was it the first round or not? So, I guess if we go back 25 years when there were only 28 teams, all of the players selected 29 - 32 should now be considered first round picks??? :doh: