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Looking For Number Four

Looking For Number Four

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1st Round

-Top 5-

Peyton Manning,

Phillip Rivers,

Carson Palmer,

Donovan McNabb (2nd overall)

Eli Manning

Matt Ryan

Vince Young

Mark Sanchez

Michael Vick

Alex Smith

Matthew Stafford

----------------------

Matt Leinart (10th)

Ben Roethlisberger (11th)

Cutler (11th)

Joe Flacco (18th)

Brady Quinn (22nd)

Aaron Rodgers (24th)

Jason Campbell (25th)

2nd Round

Brett Farve

Drew Brees

Kevin Kolb

Later

Matt Schaub (3rd, 90)

Kyle Orton (4th, 106)

Marc Bulger (6th, 168)

Matt Hassleback (6th, 184)

Matt Cassel (7th, 230)

Jake Delhomme (undrafted, Louisiana-Lafayette)

Tony Romo sits to pee (undrafted, destroyed Division 2)

Kurt Warner (undrafted, was not allowed to play until Senior year, destroyed senior year and UFL)

Tom Brady (Griese's backup at Michigan, until Junior year)

Sorry for the 2nd thread of the day....:(

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Looking For Number Four

Looking For Number Four

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He was Bledsoe's backup in NE, my apologies. Could we please stay on topic?

The point here is that, sometimes, QB drop and are actually worth top 5 consideration. Most of the time, if they are likely to be stars, they go into the top 5. Rarely, do they end up being stars and not go in the 1st round.

There are no QBs in the 1st round this season outside of the top 5. Either "In Campbell We Trust" or we are fixing the line. As much as I would like to do both, it might be Bradford and "In Shanahan We Trust" or we are looking at a numerous year project, IMO.

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Looking For Number Four

Looking For Number Four

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I don't really understand the point.....

Busts happen, but the vast majority of successful QBs are taken in the top 15 picks, period. That is the point.

Russell should have NEVER been a top 15 pick, EVERYONE knows that, please let us exclude him from this conversation.

Bradford does not possess any of the qualities that most of the others in this debate had. His QB IQ is off the charts and in all reality, that is really the main aspect that differentiates those who make it and those who do not. Not Arm strength, like the moronic scouts think GMs should give up their 1st born for.

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mistertim

mistertim

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No but he is saying most good QB's are taken high in the draft, which is completely accurate. Not sure this is new information but it is the truth.

Exactly. There are people talking about taking a mid-round QB, but they very rarely pan out. Maybe you'd end up with a decent backup, but the chances of them being great QBs are just statistically unlikely.

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Xero21

Xero21

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You need to take Vince Young, Matthew Stafford (you have him down twice), Mark Sanchez, Michael Vick, Alex Smith, Matt Leinart, Brady Quinn, and Jason Campbell out of that first round list. You could make the argument for Jay Cutler and Joe Flacco as well.

That leaves you with about 8 great QBs taken in the 1st Round recently, as opposed to the 7 taken in the 2nd or later.

8 vs 7. Means you are more likely to find a good QB in the first round.

Well duh. Scouts are not incompetent, they'll find talent. But your list actually proves that taking a 1st round QB is a gamble (as is taking ANY player in ANY round in the draft), and that you CAN draft good QBs later in the draft.

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John Lydon

John Lydon

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Breakdown of the 32 starting Qb's in 2009

1st rd. draft picks - 19

2nd rd. draft picks - 2

3rd rd. draft picks - 2

4th rd. draft picks - 2

5th rd. draft picks - 0

6th rd. draft picks - 3

7th rd. draft picks - 1

undrafted - 3

Top 5 in passing yds.

Schaub - rd. 3

P. Manning - rd.1

Romo sits to pee - undrafted

Rodgers - Rd. 1

Brady - Rd. 6

Top 5 in TD's

Brees - Rd. 2

Favre - Rd. 2

P. Manning - Rd. 1

Rodgers - Rd. 1

Schaub - Rd. 3

Top 5 in comp%

Brees - Rd. 2

P. Manning - Rd. 1

Favre - Rd. 2

Schaub - Rd. 3

Roethlisberger - Rd.1

Why did I post all this? To prove a point. Even though QB's drafted in the first round make up almost 60% of all starters this year in the NFL, they accounted for less than 40% of the league leaders. If you take Peyton manning out of the mix, 1st rounders account for only one of the top five in each of the above listed catergories. So statistically we can see that even though QB's selected in the first round account for a higher percentage of starters, lower round picks statistically post superior numbers.

In summary, Poo - poo on Bradford, we need a line.

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TD_washingtonredskins

TD_washingtonredskins

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Wait so are you saying most of the QB'S taken in the top 5 are great? Look at Russel, Couch the list goes on and on
No but he is saying most good QB's are taken high in the draft, which is completely accurate. Not sure this is new information but it is the truth.

Exactly. Those are two vastly different things.

The truth is, you are much more likely to get a franchise QB if you spend a high pick on one than hoping you strike gold in the late rounds. You certainly could miss on this pick, but how many late-rounders become even average QBs? Just our Redskins have missed with guys like Gibran Hamden, Todd Husak, etc.

In my opinion, if the coaches and GM believe someone is a franchise QB, you take him in the first round and hope he pans out.

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generals01

generals01

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Too many people see a handful of 1st round qb busts and assume it is too risky to draft a qb in the first round. They also look at a handful of good late round draft picks and think it is easy to get a franchise qb later in the draft.

I don't think a lot of people realize just how many qb's have been drafted this decade in round 2-7 that don't amount to anything. Picking Brady out of all of these guys is like a needle in a haystack.

People point to Matt Schaub, who was a 3rd rounder as an example of how you can wait to draft a qb.

Here is a list of the other 3rd round qbs this decade

Kevin O'Connell, Trent Edwards, Charlie Whitehurst, Brodie Croyle, Andrew Walter, David Greene, David Ragone, Chris Simms, Josh McCown, Quincy Carter, Giovanni Carmazzi, and Chris Redman

Out of 13 quarterbacks, one is good. Not a very good hit rate.

Not to mention Schaub was in the same draft as Big Ben, Rivers and Manning. I would take these three over Schaub (who can't even stay healthy) any day.

I am not going to type it up, but it is the same with every round.

Check out http://drafthistory.com/positions/qb.html and look through the list of all the qbs drafted that didn't even amount to a solid back up.

Don't let the bust scare you off and don't let the occasional late rounder placate you. If you want a franchise qb, you gotta get him in the first round.

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NewRegime

NewRegime

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Why did I post all this? To prove a point. Even though QB's drafted in the first round make up almost 60% of all starters this year in the NFL, they accounted for less than 40% of the league leaders. If you take Peyton manning out of the mix, 1st rounders account for only one of the top five in each of the above listed catergories. So statistically we can see that even though QB's selected in the first round account for a higher percentage of starters, lower round picks statistically post superior numbers.

In summary, Poo - poo on Bradford, we need a line.

My problem is the everyone treats the first round vs. every other option. But realistically, its Rounds 1 through 7 plus undrafted FAs.

So when you really break it down, first round picks, WHO BY THE WAY make up the LEAST AMOUNT of total QBs in the NFL if you look at it from a First round vs every other possible selection, are more likely to give you success.

If you look at teams who have won the Super Bowl, almost 50% of the Super Bowls won are first round picks. That means the other QBs came from other rounds or were undrafted.

The probability of getting a franchise QB is highest in the first round. And it makes sense people. They performed the best in college.

What we never will know until they go pro is how much they can elevate their game.

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TheLongshot

TheLongshot

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I thought it was interesting that the OP only listed 26 QBs.

Getting to the subject, you will see a lot of 1st round picks starting because of the nature of the position. There are a lot of resources dedicated to developing a QB, and when you have invested a 1st round pick in a guy, he will get the bulk of those resources. He will also get more opportunities to succeed, on average. (See Alex Smith)

It doesn't mean that all of those guys will actually be good. There is a lot of pressure for these guys to succeed, often having to be put in sink-or-swim positions. Many are on teams where they aren't in good environments and are not put in positions where they can succeed. I wonder sometimes how many QBs who have busted out would have succeeded in a different environment.

Not everyone can be Tony Romo sits to pee or Trent Green, where you are able to sit and learn for years before hitting the field. For a few guys, that works. Unfortunately, we are mostly in a win-now league where you don't always have the ability to have longer-termed projects on your team, especially when coaching staffs can change a lot.

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