Banking on Failure To Get A Higher Pick? Think Again!

[Riggo#44]

To many post to respond individually at this point. Here is something to chew on...

Here are some other QB's NOT drafted high.

And you can probably do that with just about every position, in every draft.

It all comes down to a COMPETENT FRONT OFFICE.

[Brett81]

In comparison to your very well thought out retort, yes! It is just horrible!

The point I was making Is that the NFL Draft is a crap shoot.

Also, that you cannot win just by picking higher in the draft.

You're right there is no guarantee that just picking early will give you automatic improvement...but here's what it will do:

1) Give you a better chance at going after who you want before somebody else takes him

2) Gives you more leverage were there to be a trade possible

3) Ensures that if you draft early in RD 1 and have your original picks throughout the draft, all subsequent picks will be in the top of their respective rounds

4) etc.

What it all goes back to is this...do you want to be the last kid to the icecream truck and HAVE to take what's left over, or do you want to at least have a shot at getting what you really want, and not what somebody else left for you? The later you pick, the less options you have...so you better be damn good at scouting which we all know has NOT BEEN Vincenzo's strong point...Rak was a can't miss so he get's no points for that!

[polywog999]

Oh yeah -- I love the "Nah-ah we made ADJUSTMENTS!" argurment too. No, Simms is awful.

I HOPE Snyder is getting the message. Not only does Cerrato need to go, but people like the COO -- Donovan needs to go too. (He of "It's the overly-negative press from the Post. I don't see our fans doing anything differently!" Fame) Karl Swanson, DEAD! Niedermayer..DEAD!

You guys were saying the Bronco's were going to kill us. Now they suck! Sure.

[addicted]

Thanks BLC, but this is not a fire Vinnie thread. it's about jockeying for draft position by losing out as a way to make the team better. Sorry I helped the thread go off course.

Would like to hear what you have to add about the draft.

Ok if that's what this is about, then answer me this. The higher the draft pick the more men you can choose from correct? If there are 100 men in the draft and you pick 6th then that means 5 guys are already gone by the time you pick right? If you picked 3rd then only 2 men are gone when it's your turn. The point I'm making is that the higher the pick the more choices you have. That's why it matters.

When you say that the draft is a "crap shoot" then I say your completely missing the point. Why is it that teams like Detroit this decade constantly got it wrong with the higher the draft pick but teams like the Steelers consistantly got it right? Two words....Talent Evaluation

The Lions are horrible at evaluating talent. The Steelers are much better at it. The Lions could pick first and still get it wrong all the time. The Steelers have had a ton of successful picks because they know how to spot talented players that fit what they are trying to do on the field. The picks aren't crap shoots, guesses, luck, or any of that. If you have the right people making decisions you will do well, if you have the wrong people making the decisions you will do badly. You need two things...

1. A clear goal of the system you are trying to run as a team

2. The ability to find people that fit this system

Talent evaluation. It's what seperates the good drafters from the poor ones. The Skins problem is we don't know who we want to be. Vinny has spotted some talent in the draft but he has not clear understanding of the type of team we want to field so we've collected some players but never built a team. Until we either get a clue and find the identity of the team this is how it will always be, collection of individuals but no team

[Brett81]

To many post to respond individually at this point. Here is something to chew on...

Here are some other QB's NOT drafted high.

Yes, but do you honestly trust any of the morons in the FO to find those diamonds in the rough...and some of them were so deep in the rough that they were OB. This FO needs all the help it can get...which means obvious picks...that's their only hope.

So the need to pick early is there, because when all the obvious choices are gone, we'll be lucky to see them not scratch their heads the entire draft.

[ECU-ALUM]

Oh yeah -- I love the "Nah-ah we made ADJUSTMENTS!" argurment too. No, Simms is awful.

I HOPE Snyder is getting the message. Not only does Cerrato need to go, but people like the COO -- Donovan needs to go too. (He of "It's the overly-negative press from the Post. I don't see our fans doing anything differently!" Fame) Karl Swanson, DEAD! Niedermayer..DEAD!

You guys were saying the Bronco's were going to kill us. Now they suck! Sure.

Reality is probably in the middle...the team fought hard no doubt...but face it the Broncos are in free-fall mode right now...it's a combination of the 2 extremes.

This week will go a long way to showing what we can expect for the rest of the year.

In the end though...I would give just about anything to read a thread saying "WP: Cerrato Dismissed!"

Deep inside though...I doubt it happens. Zorn is going to get thrown under the bus and injuries will be an excuse.

In terms of losing out to get a high draft pick...I could never knowingly hope for this team to lose for a high draft choice...cannot and will not.

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

polywog, youre being so shortsighted. all youre doing is listening the guys at overall #1. how about looking at 1st round QBs that have been successful? cause you surely left out EVERY QB drafted in rounds 2-7 that hasnt panned out (and you forgot brees who was the 1st pick of the 2nd round).

heres first rounders that have been successful, from 98 on:

99: mcnabb, culpepper

00: chad pennington

01: vick (brees was next QB taken at 31st overall)

03: carson palmer

04: big ben, eli manning, phillip rivers

05: aaron rodgers

06: cutler

08: ryan, flacco

all of these guys were successful or have had some sustained success in the NFL. no you dont have to be a 1st rounder to be successful, but id rather gamble on the 7th overall pick than the 137th overall pick.

[Riggo#44]

You guys were saying the Bronco's were going to kill us. Now they suck! Sure.

Dude, Orton had 193 yards and 2 TDs in the 1st half. Sims was 3-13 for 13 yards and an terribly thrown INT...

Put all the make-up on it you want. We got lucky Orton went out. It completely eliminated their ability to pass, which stagnated their entire offense. We could focus on the run, which, if you didn't notice, Moreno was averaging about 5.5 ypc...

[polywog999]

polywog, youre being so shortsighted. all youre doing is listening the guys at overall #1. how about looking at 1st round QBs that have been successful? cause you surely left out EVERY QB drafted in rounds 2-7 that hasnt panned out (and you forgot brees who was the 1st pick of the 2nd round).

heres first rounders that have been successful, from 98 on:

99: mcnabb, culpepper

00: chad pennington

01: vick (brees was next QB taken at 31st overall)

03: carson palmer

04: big ben, eli manning, phillip rivers

05: aaron rodgers

06: cutler

08: ryan, flacco

all of these guys were successful or have had some sustained success in the NFL. no you dont have to be a 1st rounder to be successful, but id rather gamble on the 7th overall pick than the 137th overall pick.

NFL Draft History: Quarterback Busts

http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftquarterbackbusts.php

Don't have time for in depth post. Will write more later BLC!

[polywog999]

Dude, Orton had 193 yards and 2 TDs in the 1st half. Sims was 3-13 for 13 yards and an terribly thrown INT...

Put all the make-up on it you want. We got lucky Orton went out. It completely eliminated their ability to pass, which stagnated their entire offense. We could focus on the run, which, if you didn't notice, Moreno was averaging about 5.5 ypc...

You are living in the subjunctive. We won. There are no shoulds in football.

[Brett81]

NFL Draft History: Quarterback Busts

http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftquarterbackbusts.php

Don't have time for in depth post. Will write more later BLC!

Polywog, you might be up to 2,000 post before the day is done having started this thread LOL I'm done giving you grief, looks like you have enough on your plate as it is...good luck!

[Riggo#44]

You are living in the subjunctive. We won. There are no shoulds in football.

You're absolutely right -- we won...but that win masks the underlying, major issues that have plagued this team for a decade.

I don't care about meaningless wins this year. We aren't going anywhere this year. We aren't going anywhere next year. It won't matter where we draft so long as the same incompetent boobs are running the FO.

There is nothing subjunctive about that. It's fact.

[Geneva]

Draft picks are still the best way to build a team. However, you still need someone that can evaluate your team needs based on the players in the draft. At this time we don't have that person so we will just have to hope luck runs our way. We also need to be smart in freee agency this off season. This is where I would start to rebuild my OL. It's hard for a draft pick to start in the OL. Our DL will be fine for next season.

[Mad Mike]

That would be five guys.

You forgot...

1988 Atlanta Aundray Bruce, LB, Auburn

1989 Dallas Troy Aikman, QB, UCLA

1990 Indianapolis Jeff George, QB, Illinois

1991 Dallas Russell Maryland, DT, Miami-FL

1992 Indianapolis Steve Emtman, DT, Washington

1993 New England Drew Bledsoe, QB, Washington State

1994 Cincinnati Dan Wilkinson, DT, Ohio State

1995 Cincinnati Ki-Jana Carter, RB, Penn State

1996 NY Jets Keyshawn Johnson, WR, USC

1997 St. Louis Orlando Pace, OT, Ohio State

1998 Indianapolis Peyton Manning, QB, Tennessee

1999 Cleveland Tim Couch, QB, Kentucky

2000 Cleveland Courtney Brown, DE, Penn State

2001 Atlanta Michael Vick, QB, Virginia Tech

2002 Houston David Carr, QB, Fresno State

2003 Cincinnati Carson Palmer, QB, USC

2004 San Diego Eli Manning, QB, Mississippi

2005 San Francisco Alex Smith, QB Utah

2006 Houston Mario Williams, DE North Carolina State

2007 Oakland JaMarcus Russell, QB LSU

2008 Miami Jake Long, OT Michigan

Jury is still out on the last two.

Like I said "IT'S A CRAP SHOOT! :hysterical:

So on top of acting like an ass in this thread, you just aren't too bright.

Guys like Russell Maryland and Dan Wilkinson might not be HOF material but they were FAR from busts. Courtney Brown suffered a career ending injury. Alex Smith is starting to look pretty good - jury is still out. And JaMarcus Russell hardly counts being that he was a typical stupid Raiders pick that everyone else thought of as a reach. Jake Long (who you skipped completely) became an immediate starter and has started every game. At the conclusion of his rookie season, he was selected to numerous All-rookie teams and was a substitute Pro Bowl selection.

But the bottom line here isn't about the draft Mr. laughing boy. It's about you acting like a complete ass and not being half as smart as you think you are.

[polywog999]

Yes, but do you honestly trust any of the morons in the FO to find those diamonds in the rough...and some of them were so deep in the rough that they were OB. This FO needs all the help it can get...which means obvious picks...that's their only hope.

So the need to pick early is there, because when all the obvious choices are gone, we'll be lucky to see them not scratch their heads the entire draft.

third round or latter...

Horton, JJ, Doughty, H.B. Blades, Kedric Golston, Chris Cooley, Derrick Dockery, Rock Cartwright, a lot of others left the team and it is hard to judge how they did. I don't have all day to research!

[IrepDC]

Every pick is a risk no matter where you're picking. But a miss on a top 10 pick hurts you a lot more than a miss anywhere later in the 1st round. That guaranteed money ties a team down if the player doesn't work out. And a lot of the time in the top 10 you have to pick from a select few hyped players or you'll be "reaching." I prefer a mid round pick 11-20 where the money isn't as high and the team isn't tied into picking whoever gained the most hype at the combine.

If we do end up with a top 10 pick I hope we trade down UNLESS their is a beast LT on the board. I wouldn't want us picking any other position in the top 10.

[BAFGA]

You know, the draft pick to me is so secondary to sweeping change in the front office. That needs to come first before even thinking about the draft. If there is no sweeping change in the front office, the draft pick we end up with will either be traded for something that might give us short-term success but not long term success, or used to draft another safety (Taylor Mays).

[polywog999]

So on top of acting like an ass in this thread, you just aren't too bright.

Guys like Russell Maryland and Dan Wilkinson might not be HOF material but they were FAR from busts. Courtney Brown suffered a career ending injury. Alex Smith is starting to look pretty good - jury is still out. And JaMarcus Russell hardly counts being that he was a typical stupid Raiders pick that everyone else thought of as a reach. Jake Long (who you skipped completely) became an immediate starter and has started every game. At the conclusion of his rookie season, he was selected to numerous All-rookie teams and was a substitute Pro Bowl selection.

But the bottom line here isn't about the draft Mr. laughing boy. It's about you acting like a complete ass and not being half as smart as you think you are.

Great post! Thanks for sharing.

[Riggo#44]

Draft picks are still the best way to build a team. However, you still need someone that can evaluate your team needs based on the players in the draft. At this time we don't have that person so we will just have to hope luck runs our way. We also need to be smart in freee agency this off season. This is where I would start to rebuild my OL. It's hard for a draft pick to start in the OL. Our DL will be fine for next season.

This is from Bleacher Report, but still good info:

Here are all of the offensive linemen drafted in the first round from the years 2000-2007. I’ve left the recent 2008 lineman out of the mix, as they haven’t touched the field in the NFL yet.

2007: Joe Thomas, Levi Brown, Joe Staley, and Ben Grubbs.

2006: D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Davin Joseph, and Nick Mangold.

2005: Jamaal Brown, Alex Barron, Logan Mankins, and Chris Spencer.

2004: Robert Gallery, Shawn Andrews, and Vernon Carey.

2003: Jordan Gross, George Foster, Kwame Harris, and Jeff Faine.

2002: Mike Williams, Bryant McKinnie, Levi Jones, Marc Colombo, and Kendall Simmons.

2001: Leonard Davis, Kenyatta Walker, Jeff Backus, and Steve Hutchinson.

2000: Chris Samuels, Stockar McDougal, and Chris McIntosh.

The players in bold/italic are the players who have not started or made a significant impact on their teams. Out of the 30 lineman drafted in the first round over the last eight years, only seven of them haven’t started or made an impact with their squad. That’s it—seven.

Add to that players this year like Jason Smith, Phil Loadholdt (2nd round)...I'd say drafting linemen is the safest bet.

[Mad Mike]

You're right there is no guarantee that just picking early will give you automatic improvement...but here's what it will do:

1) Give you a better chance at going after who you want before somebody else takes him

2) Gives you more leverage were there to be a trade possible

3) Ensures that if you draft early in RD 1 and have your original picks throughout the draft, all subsequent picks will be in the top of their respective rounds

4) etc.

What it all goes back to is this...do you want to be the last kid to the icecream truck and HAVE to take what's left over, or do you want to at least have a shot at getting what you really want, and not what somebody else left for you? The later you pick, the less options you have...so you better be damn good at scouting which we all know has NOT BEEN Vincenzo's strong point...Rak was a can't miss so he get's no points for that!

Stop it. There is no room in this thread for common sense.

[Riggo#44]

Stop it. There is no room in this thread for common sense.

We should trade picks for proven commodities!!

[Brett81]

third round or latter...

Horton, JJ, Doughty, H.B. Blades, Kedric Golston, Chris Cooley, Derrick Dockery, Rock Cartwright, a lot of others left the team and it is hard to judge how they did. I don't have all day to research!

Jeremy Jarmon was a SUPPLEMENTAL 3rd round selection. Had he actually gone in the draft, he would've been a late 1st to mid 2nd rd selection given his position and grade. Washington knew they had a steal getting him in the 3rd so they took him before anyone else picked him up...and yes a bunch of teams were aiming to get him with their 3rd rounder, or possibly early 4th as a steal.

As for the rest of who you listed, Horton has regressed a little but I still love him and Cooley is the only one to make a significant impact...Gibbs went after him btw because in his words..."we couldn't wait, or he'd be gone"...so they traded up for him.

[polywog999]

We should trade picks for proven commodities!!

The third time you have quoted that! Think of something new, oh great Riggo#44!

[Riggo#44]

The third time you have quoted that! Think of something new, oh great Riggo#44!

You're the one who posted that idiocy...

Why don't you post another list of busted QBs instead of addressing the real issue: a completely incompetent FO...

[polywog999]

...Rak was a can't miss so he get's no points for that!

A can't miss at number 13?

There are no "can't miss's" in the draft.