Thinking Skins Posted March 21, 2009 Share Posted March 21, 2009 This is the time of year when players and coaches are reviewing the tape from last year and trying to figure out what they need to improve upon. So I was looking at some of the stats and wanted to bring up an issue I noticed about the Redskins last year. Week 1: Pass 27, Run 24 (diff +3) Loss to Giants Week 2: Pass 36, Run 31 (diff +5) Win against Saints Week 3: Pass 31, Run 32 (diff -1) Win against Cards Week 4: Pass 31, Run 37 (diff -6) Win against Dallas Week 5: Pass 30, Run 44 (diff -14) Win against Philly Week 6: Pass 26, Run 31 (diff -5) Loss to Rams Week 7: Pass 23, Run 36 (diff -13) Win against Browns Week 8: Pass 28, Run 33 (diff -5) Win against Lions Week 9: Pass 43, Run 15 (diff +28) Loss to Steelers Week 10: Pass 35, Run 18 (diff +17) Loss to Dallas Week 11: Pass 33, Run 41 (diff -8) Win against Seattle Week 12: Pass 39, Run 18 (diff +21) Loss to Giants Week 13: Pass 37, Run 21 (diff +16) Loss to Ravens Week 14: Pass 28, Run 32 (diff -4) Loss to Bengals Week 15: Pass 33, Run 32 (diff +1) Win against Philly Week 16: Pass 30, Run 34 (diff +4) Loss to 49ers If we break this down to the first 8 weeks and the second 8 weeks, then we see that over the first 8 weeks we ran the ball 36 times more than we passed it, and in the second 8 weeks we passed it 75 times more than we ran the ball. Thats a large imbalance in those last 8 games, and if you add to it that our OL couldn't pass protect, you're forced to question Zorn's playcalling. And its not even about the playbook being too simple or the defense being able to read our plays, but why did he not go back to the running game? It just so happens that the games when Campbell threw his 6 pics are the 4 games when we were throwing the ball a lot. These were also 3 of our worst losses of the season. In the Pitt game, the difference is kinda understood because we were down 23-6 and needed to come back and so the running game was kinda useless. But in the dallas game we were up 10-7 going into the 4th quarter, yet we only ran the ball 17 times. And in the Giants game, we were down 13-0, but Zorn's philosophy is to "stay medium", so when we were down 13-7 at the half, I'd expect us to go back to the ground game, but we didn't. Then there's the Ravens game, which was just a bad game and we went down early and just stayed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fight for ole DC Posted March 21, 2009 Share Posted March 21, 2009 We were 6-2 in the first 8 games and ran the ball more in 6 of 8 games. We were 2-6 in the last 8 games and threw the ball more in 6 of 8 games. Losing to the Rams and Bengals killed our chances. Good defense and a solid running game are the keys to winning. I'm curious to know what our average yards per pass play was in the first 8 games compared to the last 8 games. The o-line played much better in the first half of the season and teams figured out what we were doing offensively. Both had a negative impact on the offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oldfan Posted March 21, 2009 Share Posted March 21, 2009 Your effort in digging out stats like these is greatly appreciated, TS. We have to be careful about confusing cause with effect here. I don't think it's likely that Zorn changed his playcalling for no reason resulting in the 2-6 second half with more emphasis on the pass. I think it's more likely that he was forced to change his playcalling. Let's remember that Heyer, Jansen and Samuels either didn't play or played with injuries in the second half of the season. We should also note that the highlighted teams took away our run game and Zorn was playing with a limited hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Califan007 The Constipated Posted March 21, 2009 Share Posted March 21, 2009 Interesting that against the Eagles in the first game, the Skins were down 14 points yet still ended up running the ball 14 more times than passing it. So obviously being in a hole doesn't necessarily dictate leaving the running game. I'd be interested in seeing the run/pass ratio of the Steelers game broken down by half (not asking you to do it lol...just saying, is all). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMalcolmConnection Posted March 21, 2009 Share Posted March 21, 2009 You can say what you want on stats like this, but they never tell the whole story. Were we absolutely getting shut down in the run game? Did we get away from it? Nobody knows except for this raw stat that doesn't say a lot about the whole game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinking Skins Posted March 21, 2009 Author Share Posted March 21, 2009 Your effort in digging out stats like these is greatly appreciated, TS.We have to be careful about confusing cause with effect here. I don't think it's likely that Zorn changed his playcalling for no reason resulting in the 2-6 second half with more emphasis on the pass. Wellm what inspired me to do this was reflecting on Clinton Portis's comments about how Zorn changed the running plays - something to the effect of "at first it was Smith calling the running plays and things were going well, then Zorn came and changed things up and things started going wrong". So my first question was were we running the ball in the second half of the season, and the result is not as much as the first half. Then I started wondering why. And this is more my own opinion rather than anything else, but part of me wonders if he was trying to install more of the offense, or if he thought that Campbell and the WRs understood more than they actually did, or if he was just trying to rest Portis. I think it's more likely that he was forced to change his playcalling. Let's remember that Heyer, Jansen and Samuels either didn't play or played with injuries in the second half of the season. We should also note that the highlighted teams took away our run game and Zorn was playing with a limited hand. Thats definitely an option too. I'm not ruling anything out. But what happened after that stretch, we played against Cincy, Philly and Sanfran and we see that we're back to a balance. Its more likely that the better defenses took away our running game and said "we're going to make Jason Campbell beat us", the way we did to Dallas in week 4. But remember that Dallas was still heavily criticized for not running Barber. So I'm questioning Zorn for not running Portis. Portis doesn't make his yards on breakaway plays any more. He's the kind of guy who grinds it out through a tough game. So while he may be only getting 2 yards per carry in the first quarter, if we don't give up on the running game, he'll break his fare share of 15 and 20 yard runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinking Skins Posted March 21, 2009 Author Share Posted March 21, 2009 You can say what you want on stats like this, but they never tell the whole story. Stats never tell the whole story, but they lead to interesting discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Est.1974 Posted March 21, 2009 Share Posted March 21, 2009 Interesting that against the Eagles in the first game, the Skins were down 14 points yet still ended up running the ball 14 more times than passing it. I think running the clock out from about ~8 minutes helps. That was a highlight of the season for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinking Skins Posted March 21, 2009 Author Share Posted March 21, 2009 Interesting that against the Eagles in the first game, the Skins were down 14 points yet still ended up running the ball 14 more times than passing it. So obviously being in a hole doesn't necessarily dictate leaving the running game. I'd be interested in seeing the run/pass ratio of the Steelers game broken down by half (not asking you to do it lol...just saying, is all). http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/playbyplay?game_id=29657&displayPage=tab_play_by_play&season=2008&week=REG9&override=true Drive 1: 1-10-PIT 36 (14:55) 26-C.Portis up the middle to PIT 35 for 1 yard (91-Aa.Smith, 92-J.Harrison). 3-2-PIT 28 (13:50) 26-C.Portis right end to PIT 27 for 1 yard (50-L.Foote; 92-J.Harrison). Drive 2: No runs Drive 3: 1-10-WAS 35 (7:45) 26-C.Portis right end to PIT 43 for 22 yards (27-An.Smith). 1-10-PIT 43 (7:02) 26-C.Portis left guard to PIT 41 for 2 yards (92-J.Harrison). Drive 4: 1-10-PIT 47 (4:26) 26-C.Portis right end to PIT 44 for 3 yards (98-C.Hampton, 56-L.Woodley). 2-7-PIT 44 (3:43) 37-S.Alexander right tackle to PIT 40 for 4 yards (92-J.Harrison). Timeout #2 by WAS at 02:57. Drive 5: 2-5-WAS 40 (:39) 26-C.Portis right end to WAS 39 for -1 yards (43-T. Drive 6: 2-10-WAS 28 (12:36) 26-C.Portis up the middle to WAS 29 for 1 yard (91-Aa.Smith). Drive 7: 2-4-WAS 28 (7:30) 26-C.Portis right end to WAS 35 for 7 yards (92-J.Harrison). 2-10-WAS 35 (6:51) 26-C.Portis right end to WAS 36 for 1 yard (99-B.Keisel, 56-L.Woodley). PENALTY on WAS-61-C.Rabach, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 35 - No Play. Drive 8: 2-6-WAS 31 (3:52) 26-C.Portis left tackle to WAS 31 for no gain (98-C.Hampton). Drive 9: No runs Second Half: Drive 10: 1-10-WAS 15 (10:16) 26-C.Portis left guard to WAS 18 for 3 yards (51-J.Farrior, 92-J.Harrison). Drive 11: 2-6-WAS 32 (6:01) 26-C.Portis up the middle to WAS 37 for 5 yards (51-J.Farrior). 1-10-WAS 49 (4:55) 26-C.Portis left guard to PIT 47 for 4 yards (76-C.Hoke, 90-T.Kirschke). Drive 12: 2-9-PIT 9 (8:09) 26-C.Portis left guard to PIT 6 for 3 yards (51-J.Farrior; 99-B.Keisel). (Campbell had a TD Run Called back this drive) That being said, its not like Zorn was stupid for not running it this game. Our drives in the first half ended with: 1: FG at Pitt 27 2: FG at Pitt 25 3: Punt from Pitt 41 4: Punt from Pitt 40 5: Punt from Was 34 6: Blocked Punt from out own 18 7: Punt from our own 30 8: Punt from our own 36 9: End of Half And our drives in the second half ended with: 10: Punt from our own 10 11: Interception at Pitt 30 12: Turnover on Downs from the Pitt 1 (TD was called back) 13: Turnover on Downs from the Pitt 12 14: Interception at the Pitt 17 So the only times we got into the Red Zone was when we abandoned the run. But the question is should we have run it more once we got inside the red zone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba9497 Posted March 21, 2009 Share Posted March 21, 2009 let's not forget CP was injured and struggled the second half of the season..... remember the hoopla of Portis complaining about not getting enough carries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oldfan Posted March 21, 2009 Share Posted March 21, 2009 Thinking Skins: Wellm what inspired me to do this was reflecting on Clinton Portis's comments about how Zorn changed the running plays - something to the effect of "at first it was Smith calling the running plays and things were going well, then Zorn came and changed things up and things started going wrong". I didn't read the original quote. I can't imagine what Portis was talking about. Zorn called the plays, all of them. Smith didn't call the running plays. How could he? So my first question was were we running the ball in the second half of the season, and the result is not as much as the first half. Then I started wondering why. And this is more my own opinion rather than anything else, but part of me wonders if he was trying to install more of the offense, or if he thought that Campbell and the WRs understood more than they actually did, or if he was just trying to rest Portis. I don't think JZ had much to work with in the last half of the season. We couldn't run or pass consistently well. Its more likely that the better defenses took away our running game and said "we're going to make Jason Campbell beat us", the way we did to Dallas in week 4. But remember that Dallas was still heavily criticized for not running Barber. So I'm questioning Zorn for not running Portis. Portis doesn't make his yards on breakaway plays any more. He's the kind of guy who grinds it out through a tough game. So while he may be only getting 2 yards per carry in the first quarter, if we don't give up on the running game, he'll break his fare share of 15 and 20 yard runs. Portis hasn't made his yards on long runs since he left Denver. To me, he looked like a gimpy, beat-up runner, running behind a thin, beat-up O line in the second half of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinking Skins Posted March 21, 2009 Author Share Posted March 21, 2009 I don't think JZ had much to work with in the last half of the season. We couldn't run or pass consistently well. I kinda disagree. I think that Campbell showed that he can be successful running Zorn's offense in the first half of the season, and part of me really thinks that Zorn got too happy with that. I just posted the play by play for the Pitt game, and Zorn leaning on Campbell there is understandable. But what about the Dallas game? We're up 14-10 in the third and we're still not running the ball. I mean, we started the second half off with a 12 play drive, but only 3 runs. Maybe Zorn wanted to show defenses that we could do more than just run the ball, but he had weapons to work with. Maybe the annoying thing about the west coast offense is that the passes were too short, or that Jason Campbell wasn't hitting his WRs in stride, or that the line wasn't protecting him long enough consistently enough, but we were moving the ball. We got it into the red zone twice against Pitt and couldn't score. We got 10 points against Dallas, got to their 35 and threw a pick, got to their 28 and missed a FG, got to their 37 and couldn't convert on 4th down. These are not symbols of a stagnant offense or one that can't do anything. Maybe Portis was hurting and Zorn chose to lessen his load, but we were in these games, and I don't just mean that the scores were close - no, We Had Chances To Win These Games. We just didn't do everything we needed to do every time. But if we'd have been able to put that ball in the end zone against Pitt, Dallas and Cincy, on the opportunities we missed, this would be a different discussion. Just like in 2007 when we were talking about Campbell throwing picks in the Tampa game and the Dallas game at the goal line, we'd have been having a different discussion had he thrown those TDs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KNGwithOUTaCrwN Posted March 21, 2009 Share Posted March 21, 2009 wow, these are some real interesting stats. it's nice to be able to look at a breakdown of the playcalling like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
veteranskinsfan Posted March 22, 2009 Share Posted March 22, 2009 Interesting stats. Zorn hopefully can work with his clown in the booth and do better this year with play calling. Stats do not tell the whole story but they help show trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justsomeguy Posted March 22, 2009 Share Posted March 22, 2009 Great post thinking skins enjoyed thanks for the research very good. We always win more when we run more and we don't need to see the stats to know that though. The NFC Beast is won by running and stopping the run typically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoudMouth12thMan Posted March 22, 2009 Share Posted March 22, 2009 You made the original point of this thread moot with the last paragraph. The play calling only swayed/teetered toward the passing game when we essentially had to pass the ball...a lot of 3rd and longs, procedure penalties, and sacks forcing us in long yardage situations. I didn't notice a big difference in the play calling unless the respective game called for more passing. The play-calling was suspect at times, but it wasn't glaringly bad. The offense was horrible the second part of the year, so you've gotta blame Zorn for that along with the players. I liked the way Zorn called most of the games especially in comparison to his predecessor, but that ain't saying much :2cents: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrelgreenie Posted March 22, 2009 Share Posted March 22, 2009 - no, We Had Chances To Win These Games. We just didn't do everything we needed to do every time. But if we'd have been able to put that ball in the end zone against Pitt, Dallas and Cincy, on the opportunities we missed, this would be a different discussion. Just like in 2007 when we were talking about Campbell throwing picks in the Tampa game and the Dallas game at the goal line, we'd have been having a different discussion had he thrown those TDs. ^^Agree 100% I see eye to eye with you on most of this thread but... part of me really thinks that Zorn got too happy with that I've been re-watching some of the redskins 30 minutes replays i saved or downloaded and i've noticed a few things. It seemed to me that Zorn did the following things in the first half of the season then got away from them in the second half of the season: - spreading the field more 3/4 wide sets and empty set formations - use of the slant/quick slant pass - JC in the shotgun more - deep pass attempts and conversions - pass focused play-calling in the redzone (esp. w/ motion) - variation in the formations (pro-form split back which vanished as the season progressed) - Sticking with the pass or calling more passes in a row at times Imo a key factor in discussing the run/pass ratio is when and with what frequency the runs/passes were being called. On the whole i felt like Zorn playcalling was more confident early in the season with passing to set up the run which i felt put us in a position (i.e havin a lead) to be able to run the ball in the 4th qtr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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