How Far Off Were Our Predictions Really?

[bulldog]

I had the Redskins down for 8-8 or 9-7 with the chance to go 10-6 if they caught breaks with injuries and won a game or two in upset that they normally would not.

Why? Because you had a first year head coach, a quarterback looking to make his first end to end season as a starter and a team that otherwise had age at key positions whose skills were declining.

Sorry for those folks that thought with a puff of magic smoke a 9-7 team that lost 35-14 to Seattle in the first round of the playoffs in 2007 was going to turn into a juggernaut like making instant coffee.............

Remember that 2007 team reached 9 wins largely because of the emotional cohesion forged through the Sean Taylor tragedy and the sudden emergence of a quarterback, Todd Collins, that teams didn't have a book on because he hadn't played in 10 years.

Remember also that the Seattle team that beat the Redskins 35-14 was itself pummeled in the next round of the postseason by the Green Bay Packers.

It's not like the Redskins went 15 rounds with a champion and fell just a wee bit short.

The Redskins in 2008 have about an equal number of good and bad stories and that translates into a middling record:

Good:

1. Portis leading the league in rushing for most of the season.

2. London Fletcher having a pro bowl season at MLB.

3. Carlos Rogers and Rocky McIntosh returning to perform better than anyone could have expected from major injuries in 2007.

4. Chris Horton emerging as a starter from being a #7 pick.

5. Acquiring DeAngelo Hall in mid-season for no compensation as the 33 year old Springs showed he is perhaps beyond being a 16 game starter anymore

6. Return to Health of Santana Moss

Bad:

1. Jon Jansen's deteriorating skills at RT

2. Chris Samuels' left knee injury reducing his effectiveness at LT

3. Jason Taylor's 1.0 sacks in 12 games after being acquired for a #2 and #6 draft picks in 2009.

4. Lack of production from the first 5 draft choices. Thomas has been lost all season, Kelly was hurt and Davis, Rinehart and Tryon have either been inactive or limited to special teams.

5. Continued injury plagued recent histories for Marcus Washington and Shawn Springs.

6. Shaun Suisham's failure to convert makeable kicks that could have helped win the Rams and Cowboys games. You can add in here the very short kickoffs the past 3-4 weeks.

It's a balanced list with some things to smile about and others to be frustrated at. But not the profile of a team set to go 13-3 or 14-2.

In between the two lists is a neutral rating for Zorn's development of Jason Campbell. We need to give Zorn more time to see whether his methods are building momentum or have stalled Campbell in his progression.

Maybe it is the cloud of time and lost memory, but I remember the 1981 San Francisco 49ers running the pure West Coast Offense where the key performers surrounding Joe Montana were Ricky Patton, Earl Cooper, Freddie Solomon and Dwight Clark.

Not many burners in that group other than Freddie.

Most of Joe's passes were to the backs and tight ends with Clark being the target down the middle of the field.

Somehow I would have to think the Redskins can and could have gotten better production using Betts and Portis more in the passing game and by using Davis in combination with Cooley in a two-tight end formation that Tennessee has used in 2008 due to a lack of a true #1 on the outside.

If Devin Thomas at 6'3 and 220 as green as he is could only learn how to run 2-3 deep plays and the Redskins had incorporated those into the offense I wonder how that might have opened things up for Cooley and Moss over the middle.

So, again the play of the QB I put down as a neutral for now as part of it is normal development time, but some of the rest of the issues may be Zorn and his unwillingness to use players in ways that are unconventional to what seemed routine in Seattle.

[elkabong82]

check the link in my sig

[TheLongshot]

Fans are an impatient lot. Whenever they get a whiff of success, they go nuts, particularly if they haven't seen a whole lot of it recently. I think that expectations got completely out of whack when the team got off to a great start against a bunch of opponents that most of us expected that we weren't going to do well. Even the best of us can't help but get swept up by the excitement.

But after teams got tape of us and could game plan against us, a more realistic view of this team has formed, which ends up being mostly what a lot of us thought this team was going to be. Our defense was going to be pretty decent, but not a sack machine. The running game was still going to be the strength of this team while the passing game was going to be a work in progress. We also had to work through Zorn being an O-Coordinator and a head coach for the first time.

I think there is some disappointment that we haven't gotten better as the season has come on, but some of that can be attributed to how beat up this team has gotten. While we aren't missing too many people, there are a lot of nagging injuries. Also, I think the delayed start of Malcolm Kelly in this offense has really hurt things. I think Zorn was thinking that the guy was going to contribute sooner rather than later and not having him in there has hurt the offense.

[Soup]

9-7 and just missing the playoffs.

My surprises were:

-Clinton might become the rushing the leader

-Zorn coaching well and passing my expectations

-How terrible our starting Oline is

Everything else I've expected

I'll admit though, I was spoiled with the team when they went on that 4-1 start.

[zoony]

Fans are an impatient lot. Whenever they get a whiff of success, they go nuts, particularly if they haven't seen a whole lot of it recently.

In my case, absolutely false. I've said numerous times that one of my favorite Redskin teams of all time was the 2004 squad. I also loved the team under Marty. 6-10 and 8-8, respectively.

Most of us can handle losing when we see light at the end of the tunnel. Truthfully, I don't mind it a bit. The 2004 team that went to Pittsburgh and absolutely punched them square in the jaw, causing Bill Cowher to say afterwards that the Redskins were the most physical team he ever remembers playing brings a smile to my face every time. Hell, it still does

This? Uninspired play from an aging roster? Meh, sort of dissapointing. This team was built to make its run last year and this year. Last year I think could have been different were it not for injuries. This year, we have the oldest Oline in the league, among the oldest LBing corps in the league, one prospect on the Dline, and a secondary that seems to be regressing week to week. Check the Landry thread.

Portis, who I believe to be one of the best backs in football, is no spring chicken anymore. I consider every season beyond 2009 that he plays injury free to be icing on the cake. Our rookie class, sans Horton, is so far one big huge warm cup of dissapointment. We get excited about a TD run by our top overall WR pick. Fans in Denver, St. Louis, and Philly think that's pretty funny. They laugh even harder when they see our excitement of our other WR prospect at just taking the field. Not even going to mention Fred Davis, that would be too easy. Horton seems to be a bright spot though.

Not to mention, the serious questions revolving around the development of our franchise QB, who we traded picks for and took in the first round, investing the last 4 years in. Even the most ardant Campbell supporter would probably have to give his shot of pulling thru at about 50%. So a very real chance we'll be starting over at QB soon, too. Unless we get a Matt Ryan, count on that taking 3 years or so.

So there is the very real possibility that by the time we get our lines rebuilt and our lbing corps young again, rookies online, and QB settled, Portis and Moss won't even be Redskins. Figure on that taking minimum 3 years.

So, yah, hard to get excited about this team. Nothing really endearing about it to be honest. Nothing much to look forward to.

I hope Vinny picks some good players in these next few drafts that are able to come in and contribute right away. I'll certainly be rooting for him.

[ttr77]

I expected 6 or 7 wins. However, in any situation, expectations should evolve based on the circumstances. At 6-2, my expectation level was higher.

[bulldog]

as overmatched as the offensive line has looked at times one really has to wonder if the overall record had not been 6-2 at the midpoint but 3-5 whether we would have seen Stephon Heyer and Chad Rinehart get reps on offense at RT and LG? and would the Redskins be better in 2009 for it?

[Soup]

In my case, absolutely false. I've said numerous times that one of my favorite Redskin teams of all time was the 2004 squad. I also loved the team under Marty. 6-10 and 8-8, respectively.

Most of us can handle losing when we see light at the end of the tunnel. Truthfully, I don't mind it a bit. The 2004 team that went to Pittsburgh and absolutely punched them square in the jaw, causing Bill Cowher to say afterwards that the Redskins were the most physical team he ever remembers playing brings a smile to my face every time. Hell, it still does

Great Point

I know exactly how you feel, I loved marty and also remember during the second half of the season how inspired that team played. It's a shame he and snyder could not come together on player issues.

[UltimateSkinsFan21]

I predicted 11-5 since like March or April. We could find out if thats right this Sunday.

If we win vs. the Ravens we are 8-5 with Cincy next. The way we play vs. crappy teams I wouldn't say it's a sure win but we will win in somewhat of a close game, 9-5.

Then we play the Eagles. another winable game depending on which McNabb shows up and if we do the same thing we did before against them. 10-5. one more win and we're in.

The 49ers are another crappy team that we can't seem to beat with ease but I think that is the week things change. A blowout vs. the Niners. 11-5

Well thats the way i see the rest of the season going if we beat the Ravens. if we don't, it all goes to hell. and yes i know that i'm very optimistic

[SkinsHokieFan]

Expectations change as a season progresses

The one thing I did not expect was the team to look worse in November (on offense in particular) and to have a 3-4 record at home.

Of the last 3 home games, I expected this team to win 2.

The Rams loss is inexcusable.

When you start off 4-1 and with the toughest games on your back 8 all at home, you really feel good about your chances. Not seizing it is disappointing, in particular with the makeup of this roster

I feel that the Redskins should at least be able to compete with the Giants when they are missing Michael Strahan, Usi, and Plaxico Burress and Jacobs is less then 100 percent

We certainly looked very competitive against them in 2007 with all of those players in the lineup fully healthy

[andyburd]

8-8 and we beat the Bengals

[CHERRYR]

Predicted 9-7 in the PS, that would put Zorn @the top for a Skins rookie HC. :logo:

[TheGoodBits]

Well, if we win out, my win-loss prediction would be right on. Granted, this isn't how I would have pictured it, but whatever.

[TheLongshot]

In my case, absolutely false. I've said numerous times that one of my favorite Redskin teams of all time was the 2004 squad. I also loved the team under Marty. 6-10 and 8-8, respectively.

Well, I can respect liking the defense of that 2004 team, but the 2001 team? That team was so far away from doing anything good. I respect that they showed enough pluck to do as well as they did, but Marty the GM didn't do Marty the head coach any favors.

Portis, who I believe to be one of the best backs in football, is no spring chicken anymore. I consider every season beyond 2009 that he plays injury free to be icing on the cake. Our rookie class, sans Horton, is so far one big huge warm cup of dissapointment. We get excited about a TD run by our top overall WR pick. Fans in Denver, St. Louis, and Philly think that's pretty funny. They laugh even harder when they see our excitement of our other WR prospect at just taking the field. Not even going to mention Fred Davis, that would be too easy. Horton seems to be a bright spot though.

Well, Denver and Philly have offenses that have been well established for years, so I'm not surprised that a rookie can come in and contribute. Here, everyone is learning a new offense and there is a struggle with that even with the veterans on this team. As for St Louis, I don't think they have any business laughing at anyone right now.

To be honest, I didn't expect much contribution from this rookie class in the first year. Most of these guys were drafted as depth to eventually take over for aging veterans. The only reason why Horton was able to contribute was that we were very thin at the Safety spot. The only mild disappointment that I've had with the draft class so far is with Kelly, and I can't hold injury against the guy.

Not to mention, the serious questions revolving around the development of our franchise QB, who we traded picks for and took in the first round, investing the last 4 years in. Even the most ardant Campbell supporter would probably have to give his shot of pulling thru at about 50%. So a very real chance we'll be starting over at QB soon, too. Unless we get a Matt Ryan, count on that taking 3 years or so.

To be honest, that's probably true of most QBs, even drafted high. Even those who started out pretty decent may never maximize their potential with their team. But, it is hard to get down on a QB who has improved his game every year.

But, even if we need to start over, we have a candidate already on the team who shows a lot of potential himself who is learning alongside Campbell. So, maybe it wouldn't take three years.

So there is the very real possibility that by the time we get our lines rebuilt and our lbing corps young again, rookies online, and QB settled, Portis and Moss won't even be Redskins. Figure on that taking minimum 3 years.

So, yah, hard to get excited about this team. Nothing really endearing about it to be honest. Nothing much to look forward to.

I can understand not being excited for this year's team. What I can't understand is not being excited for the future of this team. Unlike 2001 and 2004, which you seem to like so much, we have a good amount of young talent waiting in the wings. While there is a view that the O-Line is an intractable problem, we have a couple of young players who can help with that already, one of which has proven he can start in this league. The D-Line has gotten younger in recent years and will continue to get younger. We have a fine candidate to fill in for Washington and eventually take over for Fletcher in HB Blades, and we look pretty set for a long time in the secondary where we can finally get rid of Springs if we choose.

While I expect that we will part ways with many of our older players, there are going to be quite a few that are going to be replaced by younger players already on the team. Now, while that might not work out for everyone, I do think it is a great source of optimism for the future of this team, that we can evolve and not rebuild every few years.

[TheLongshot]

I feel that the Redskins should at least be able to compete with the Giants when they are missing Michael Strahan, Usi, and Plaxico Burress and Jacobs is less then 100 percent

We certainly looked very competitive against them in 2007 with all of those players in the lineup fully healthy

Admittedly, the Giants are a MUCH better team this year than they were last year. I knew it was going to be long odds of us winning that Giants game even back when things were going reasonably well for us. A lot of it comes with the emergence of Eli as a more consistent QB. Before this year, he was very streaky and could look good at one moment and be highly erratic the next. He hasn't shown any of that this year.

[IbleedBnG83]

I had us going 10-6 when preseason started. It looks as if that may come true. BUT, I also thought our offense would be much more efficient. It started that way but has not finished. So statistically I seem to be fine in terms of wins and losses, but in terms of how our offense is doing, nope.

[skinsfan44]

I predicted we would go 6-10 since we were getting a new head coach that has never been a head coach before, but when we were 6-2, I started thinking PLAYOFFS.

Now, I am just hoping we don't finish LAST in our division.

[Chief skin]

I THOUGHT 8-8 but did get my hopes up during the winng streak. Sadly 8-8 seems like reality now

[BigRedskinDaddy]

Pretty good OP. Not to split hairs or cherry pick your points, but remember that the 81 Niners were running the first version of the WCO EVER SEEN in this league. Since then defenses have had 27 years to adjust.

I myself wonder how it is that we haven't been able to utilize 2 TE sets more to move the chains with underneath routes -- I'm not an NFL-caliber coordinator mind, yet I can think of at least a dozen possible route combinations that I don't believe I've seen ONCE this season. Oh well...better minds than I are (I hope) working the problem.

Regarding the expectations vs. reality, I agree with whoever said they change during the season. In my case, I fell victim to the team's early success, which left me hoping for more than I probably knew I should. I agree with zoony that certain teams can be more inspiring than others despite their losing records, and that this one doesn't seem to be one of them.

I believe if Vinny has started to learn his lessons about the draft (I believe he has, or at least is in the process of doing so) then we have yet another couple of these type seasons before we are a legitimate contender. It's not a prospect I relish, but there it is.