1 week to Election 2008: Your 1 week out predictions

[88Comrade2000]

Okay, we got one week to go. No more robocalls. No more **** in my mailbox. No more strange people knocking at my door.

I will ask for everyone's final predictions on Monday. A week out, what do you think will be the final election results?

So here's my predictions questions for you:

1. What will be the electoral college vote?

2. What will be the popular vote?

3. How many Americans will end up voting and what percentage will that be?

4. When will the networks call the election?

5. When will the concession speech be given?

6. When will the victory speech be given?

7. Will the exit polls be an accurate predictor of the election this time?

8. The House is currently at: Dems- 232, Repub- 202, Vacant- 3. How many more seats do the democrats win?

9. The Senate is currently at: Dems- 49, Repubs- 49, Independent- 2. Note both independents side with democrats. How many more seats do the democrats win and do they get to 60 senators?

You can predict anything else you want to, I can't think of anything else to ask.

[88Comrade2000]

Oh further explanation of Question 3.

I am asking for the total amount of voters. 2004 saw a record amount of voters voting and I think the percentage of registered voters that actually voted went up also.

[Thiebear]

18million black votes +4million over 2004

106million white votes (i think hispanic is in here also) +6million over 2004

McCain with majority: +6million

McCain with electoral: 304ish

Polls will be off by 10-15%

And no i'm not smoking anything, make your prediction and Move TF on..

[Cooked Crack]

Thiebear is smoking something. Electoral and popular vote? Yep def smoking something

1. What will be the electoral college vote? Obama/Biden 349 McCain/Palin 189

2. What will be the popular vote? 51-45

3. How many Americans will end up voting and what percentage will that be? Don't know

4. When will the networks call the election? When the polls open

5. When will the concession speech be given? Before I go to sleep

6. When will the winner's speech be given? Before I go to sleep

7. Will the exit polls be an accurate predictor of the election this time? Sure

8. How many more seats do the democrats win? Dem 254 GOP 181

9. How many more seats do the democrats win and do they get to 60 senators? 60-40

[sleazye]

A week out, what do you think will be the final election results?

So here's my predictions questions for you:

1. What will be the electoral college vote? 302-236

2. What will be the popular vote? 55-45

3. How many Americans will end up voting and what percentage will that be? 52% of eligible voters

4. When will the networks call the election? 9:15 PM

5. When will the concession speech be given? 10:00 PM

6. When will the winner's speech be given? 10:30 PM

7. Will the exit polls be an accurate predictor of the election this time? They will be inaccurate in Ohio, Florida, NC, and IN- all of which will indicate Obama, but end up going to McCain

8. The House is currently at: Dems- 232, Repub- 202, Vacant- 3. How many more seats do the democrats win? They gain 14 seats

9. The Senate is currently at: Dems- 49, Repubs- 49, Independent- 2. Note both independents side with democrats. How many more seats do the democrats win and do they get to 60 senators? Dems gain 5 seats.

You can predict anything else you want to, I can't think of anything else to ask. Former Ohio Rep Jim Trafficant will break out of federal prison and go on a crotch-kicking rampage across cable news channels that will leave Olberman and O'Reilly impotent.

Lock it up, championship.

[88Comrade2000]

My answers in italiacs.

1. What will be the electoral college vote?

Obama- 381

Mccain- 157

2. What will be the popular vote?

Obama- 53%

Mccain - 46%

Others - 1%

3. How many Americans will end up voting and what percentage will that be?

I will say 130 million voters will vote and the percentage would be 57%.

4. When will the networks call the election?

I am standing by prediction that the networks will call the election shortly after 8pm.

5. When will the concession speech be given?

I think Mccain will give his concession speech after 9:30pm eastern.

6. When will the victory speech be given?

I think Obama will give his victory speech after 10:15pm eastern.

7. Will the exit polls be an accurate predictor of the election this time?

Yes, I think the exit polls will correctly show an Obama landslide.

8. The House is currently at: Dems- 232, Repub- 202, Vacant- 3. How many more seats do the democrats win?

I expect the Dems to win 28 seats to get them up to 260.

9. The Senate is currently at: Dems- 49, Repubs- 49, Independent- 2. Note both independents side with democrats. How many more seats do the democrats win and do they get to 60 senators?

I think the dems get a net gain of 10 seats which would give them 59 seats. With the 2 indepedents, they will be at 61. Joe Leiberman will still have some leverage.

[Ax]

Okay, we got one week to go. No more robocalls. No more **** in my mailbox. No more strange people knocking at my door.

I will ask for everyone's final predictions on Monday. A week out, what do you think will be the final election results?

So here's my predictions questions for you:

1. What will be the electoral college vote?

The thing that decides the election.

2. What will be the popular vote?

In Maryland, Yes to slots.

3. How many Americans will end up voting and what percentage will that be?

Lots, but still less than those who never vote.

4. When will the networks call the election?

Last month.

5. When will the concession speech be given?

After the last court appeal.

6. When will the winner's speech be given?

See #5

7. Will the exit polls be an accurate predictor of the election this time?

No.

8. The House is currently at: Dems- 232, Repub- 202, Vacant- 3. How many more seats do the democrats win?

More than they hoped.

9. The Senate is currently at: Dems- 49, Repubs- 49, Independent- 2. Note both independents side with democrats. How many more seats do the democrats win and do they get to 60 senators?

Same as #8.

You can predict anything else you want to, I can't think of anything else to ask.

If Obama wins, the typical honeymoon period with the press will be extended to 4 years.

[sleazye]

Good one, Ax :cool:

People seem to only remember the last 8 years when it comes to the press and the President. I recall Clinton having every single tiny detail about his affair put out into the public arena by this biased press.

The last 8 years have certainly provided them with some good ammo, but don't start playing the media honeymoon card before Obama is even President. They have a job to do, and that job is to produce ratings which will not come from a love-fest.

[Ax]

Good one, Ax :cool:

People seem to only remember the last 8 years when it comes to the press and the President. I recall Clinton having every single tiny detail about his affair put out into the public arena by this biased press.

The last 8 years have certainly provided them with some good ammo, but don't start playing the media honeymoon card before Obama is even President. They have a job to do, and that job is to produce ratings which will not come from a love-fest.

Yes, but just like the deer in your sig, they will be fearful of being the first one to walk out into the open field. Fox, of course, will be walking on eggshells as well, but they will be the first to question his decisions, drawing all the attention away from whatever the truth may actually be. I just think this will go on for a long time, IF Obama is annointed, er um, elected.

[skinsfan07]

18million black votes +4million over 2004

106million white votes (i think hispanic is in here also) +6million over 2004

McCain with majority: +6million

McCain with electoral: 304ish

Polls will be off by 10-15%

And no i'm not smoking anything, make your prediction and Move TF on..

lol if you're not smoking anything than I assume you're joking. Good one.

[PeterMP]

Obama wins comfortably. It won't be a complete blow out. He won't sweep NC, FL, OH, PA, and VA.

Obama will get close to 50% of the vote, but probably under it. Certainly more than 47%. McCain will be at about 43%.

They will be ESPECIALLY safe with this election, but still call it before 2 am.

[Kilmer17]

I'll stick with my popular vote prediction from MONTHS ago.

Obama will win that by 5-7 points.

Other than that, the only prediction I will make is that the race in certain states is alot closer than what polls are saying.

[Thiebear]

going by history: its what would normally happen.

Unless of course your saying the pied piper has knocked down ALL racial bias' and all is chutes and ladders in the United States as it was ...ummm.. thats right: never.

20% will not vote for obama because he's black: (out of 100million)

30% will vote for obama because he is black: (out of 20 million)

That math to me shows: 20milliong against ... 6million for. (14million difference)

BUT: Obama WILL get others that wouldnt normally vote so i subtracted 8million votes)

and McCain walks away with 6 million extra votes.

Either i'm way off or spot on.. (been saying this since June-ish) we shall see.

*Disclaimer: public school math above*

[China]

1. What will be the electoral college vote? 286 Obama/252 McCain

2. What will be the popular vote? 51% Obama, 43% McCain, 6% Other

3. How many Americans will end up voting and what percentage will that be? Too few.

4. When will the networks call the election? Just before midnight

5. When will the concession speech be given? After midnight

6. When will the victory speech be given? After the concession speech

7. Will the exit polls be an accurate predictor of the election this time? No.

8. The House is currently at: Dems- 232, Repub- 202, Vacant- 3. How many more seats do the democrats win? Dems 255, Repub - 180

9. The Senate is currently at: Dems- 49, Repubs- 49, Independent- 2. Note both independents side with democrats. How many more seats do the democrats win and do they get to 60 senators? Dems -54, Repubs, 45, Independent 2.

You can predict anything else you want to, I can't think of anything else to ask. I predict there will be too many talking heads and not enough celebratory nudity.

[PeterMP]

going by history: its what would normally happen.

Unless of course your saying the pied piper has knocked down ALL racial bias' and all is chutes and ladders in the United States as it was ...ummm.. thats right: never.

20% will not vote for obama because he's black: (out of 100million)

30% will vote for obama because he is black: (out of 20 million)

That math to me shows: 20milliong against ... 6million for. (14million difference)

BUT: Obama WILL get others that wouldnt normally vote so i subtracted 8million votes)

and McCain walks away with 6 million extra votes.

Either i'm way off or spot on.. (been saying this since June-ish) we shall see.

*Disclaimer: public school math above*

You are essentially assuming almost a worse case scenario for the Bradely effect as what was seen in VA in 1989. More recent history shows a lesser effect. Look at the primaries, especially what are now swing states or would expect to show a Bradely effect.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_primary-234.html

state; last weeks avg before primary; final Obama figure

SC; 38.4; 55.4

PA; 43.4; 45.5 (Clinton won by about 3% more than expected)

VA; 55; 63.6

OH; 43; 44.1 (Clinton won by about 3% more than expected)

AL; 44.8; 55.8

NC: 50; 56.2

In short, in many cases, the polls underestimed Obama's support, but at most we saw a 3% swing to Hillary.

**EDIT** Edwards didn't see any real help from the Bradely effect.