WP: The Obamacons Who Worry McCain

[SkinsHokieFan]

Novak sums up very well why a lot of people think, including me, this is going to be a Democrat route in November

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/25/AR2008062501942.html?hpid=opinionsbox1

The Obamacons Who Worry McCain

By Robert D. Novak

Thursday, June 26, 2008; A19

What is an "Obamacon?" The phrase surfaced in January to describe British conservatives entranced by Barack Obama. On March 13 the American Spectator broadened the term to cover all "conservative supporters" of the Democratic presidential candidate. Their ranks, though growing, feature few famous people. But looming on the horizon are two big potential Obamacons: Colin Powell and Chuck Hagel.

Neither Powell, first-term secretary of state for George W. Bush, nor Hagel, retiring after two terms as a U.S. senator from Nebraska, has endorsed Obama. Hagel probably never will. Powell probably will enter Obama's camp at a time of his own choosing. The best bet is that neither of the two, both of whom supported President Bush in 2000 and 2004, will back John McCain in 2008.

Powell, Hagel and lesser-known Obamacons harbor no animosity toward McCain. Nor do they show much affection for the rigidly liberal Obama. The Obamacon syndrome is based on hostility to Bush and his administration and on revulsion over today's Republican Party. The danger for McCain is that desire for a therapeutic electoral bloodbath could get out of control.

That danger was highlighted in a June New Republic article on "The rise of the Obamacons" by supply-side economist Bruce Bartlett, who was a middle-level official in the Reagan and George H.W. Bush administrations. He expressed "disgust with a Republican Party that still does not see how badly George W. Bush has misgoverned this country" -- echoing his scathing 2006 book, "Impostor: How George W. Bush Bankrupted America and Betrayed the Reagan Legacy." While Bartlett says "I'm not ready to join the other side," his anti-Bush furor characterizes the Obamacons.

The prototypal Obamacon may be Larry Hunter, recognized inside the Beltway as an ardent supply-sider. When it became known recently that Hunter supports Obama, fellow conservatives were stunned. Hunter was fired as U.S. Chamber of Commerce chief economist in 1993 when he would not swallow Clinton administration policy, and he later joined Jack Kemp at Empower America (ghostwriting Kemp's column). Explaining his support for the uncompromisingly liberal Obama, Hunter blogged on June 6: "The Republican Party is a dead rotting carcass with a few decrepit old leaders stumbling around like zombies in a horror version of 'Weekend With Bernie,' handcuffed to a corpse."

While he never would use such language, Colin Powell is said by friends to share Hunter's analysis of the GOP. His tenuous 13-year relationship with the Republican Party, following his retirement from the Army, has ended. The national security adviser for Ronald Reagan left the present administration bitter about being ushered out of the State Department a year earlier than he wanted. As an African American, friends say, Powell is sensitive to racial attacks on Obama and especially on Obama's wife, Michelle. While McCain strategists shrug off defections from Bruce Bartlett and Larry Hunter, they wince in anticipating headlines generated by Powell's expected endorsement of Obama.

While Powell may not be a legitimate Obamacon because he never was much of a conservative, that cannot be said for his close Senate friend Hagel. He has built a solidly conservative record as a senator, but mutual friends see no difference between him and the general on Iraq, Dick Cheney, Don Rumsfeld, George W. Bush and the Republican Party. In a speech today at the Brookings Institution, Hagel is expected to urge Obama and McCain to reach out to each other. At the least, Hagel is not ready to strap on armor for his longtime political ally and office neighbor, John McCain.

Reports listing additional Obamacons do not add up to tides of conservative Republicans leaving their party. Former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker is a Democrat who entered government in the Kennedy administration. Conservative commentator Armstrong Williams (an African American) leads me to believe that he has no intention of endorsing Obama. Conservative author Richard J. Whalen is for Obama because he sees a dead Republican Party, but he also was for John Kerry in 2004.

Nevertheless, Obamacons -- little and big -- are reason for concern by McCain. They also should cause soul-searching at the Bush White House about who made the Republican Party so difficult a place for Republicans to stay.

[Burgold]

I think the fad of Obama is mostly over. That celebrity "ooh, isn't it cool" factor is not really in play anymore. He is no longer Hannah Montana. What I think you have now are voters, who are impassioned by their love of country, their disappointment and diapproval of Bush and by extention the republicans, and support of Obama himself.

I think at the beginning Obama was an Icon and a symbol to a bunch of folks. I think he is human again. I think that the Wright fiasco and other missteps brought him down to Earth. That's probably a good thing. Today, you have his ideas. Some of which are pretty good. You have his charisma and his ability to orate, both of which are well polished. You have the state of the nation, and you have the perception of not only a failed presidency, but the perception that we've lived under the worst President in the history of America. A guy so bad at being President he makes Carter look like FDR, Washington, and Lincoln all wrapped into one.

All of those form this phenom of Obamacon which becomes a somewhat rational phenomenon.

[Burgold]

Boy, I'm not doing well today, I'm misreading everything. Perhaps, I should go back to bed.

I think that there is the possibility of mass defections for a number of reasons:

McCain is surprisingly unloved within the Rep party

Bush is definately unloved by large segments of the Rep Party

The Rep Party is viewed as having strayed and not the Rep party anymore

Eventually, after eight years of deceit, corruption, and misgovernance at least some Reps have to get a clue.

[Henry]

Today I read Karl Rove's piece in the Wall Street Journal. Rove called Obama a self-centered egotist who would anything to gain power.

Maybe he's right. There is some evidence to support that opinion.

However, the problem is that Rove and his people have been using that slam so long that it become white noise. There they go again, calling someone an elitist Machiavellian snob. It just kinda makes me sick of Rove Republicans, not wary of Obama.

On the plus side, I don't think McCain is a Rove Republican. That may save him in November.

[Tulane Skins Fan]

Today I read Karl Rove's piece in the Wall Street Journal. Rove called Obama a self-centered egotist who would anything to gain power.

Maybe he's right. There is some evidence to support that opinion.

However, the problem is that Rove and his people have been using that slam so long that it become white noise. There they go again, calling someone an elitist Machiavellian snob. It just kinda makes me sick of Rove Republicans, not wary of Obama.

On the plus side, I don't think McCain is a Rove Republican. That may save him in November.

Isn't Rove "informally" advising McCain's campaign?

And is that the article where he said Obama reminded him of the arrogant guy at a country club with a cigarrette, a martini, and the hot girl? Probably the most ironic statement ever put in print.

[Henry]

Isn't Rove "informally" advising McCain's campaign?

Not that I know of. But to be fair I don't spend a LOT of time following the actions of Karl Rove.

I wouldn't be surprised to find out Rove's offered McCain some advice from time to time, but so far it doesn't look like McCain is using the Rove playbook.

Which is one reason I like McCain.

[Kilmer17]

This election will either rewrite the rules for election politics, or it will be a strange convergence of coincidences.

The GOP somehow picked the one guy who COULD win this November, and the DEms somehow avoided the one person who had no chance of winning.

I dont believe the mass body politic on either side is smart enough to have done that on purpose. Other factors played into both getting the nomination.

But now that they're both there, it's going to be wild.

Powell and the Obamicons versus Liebermann and the McCainocrats.

Pass the popcorn.

And Im in the minority on the board, I dont think we have a bad choice this year. Especially compared to the last 3 elections.

[Henry]

The weirdest thing about this election cycle is that I find myself routinely agreeing with Kilmer on all points.

[DjTj]

I agree with Kilmer too, but I don't share his cynicism in the body politic.

I dont believe the mass body politic on either side is smart enough to have done that on purpose. Other factors played into both getting the nomination.

I think electability was a huge factor during the primaries, and although it wasn't the only factor, it certainly helped push both Obama and McCain over the top.

In many ways, both primary races were about Hillary Clinton. The Republican Party had to nominate someone capable of beating Hillary, and McCain won the election not as the candidate most representative of conservative views, but as the one most likely to win, and most importantly, most likely to beat Hillary. The Democrats spent the entire primary season worried about Hillary's negatives. Early press coverage focused on how 50% of America wouldn't vote for Hillary Clinton, and Obama arrived as a viable alternative. It was worries about Clinton's unelectability that made Obama's nomination possible.

And Im in the minority on the board, I dont think we have a bad choice this year. Especially compared to the last 3 elections.

I was a big fan of Gore, and I don't think I have anything against Clinton or Dole, but this is a huge improvement over the last election, and I think both men would make fine Presidents.

[Duckus]

I laughed out loud at this part:

Explaining his support for the uncompromisingly liberal Obama, Hunter blogged on June 6: "The Republican Party is a dead rotting carcass with a few decrepit old leaders stumbling around like zombies in a horror version of 'Weekend With Bernie,' handcuffed to a corpse."

[Duckus]

And Im in the minority on the board, I dont think we have a bad choice this year. Especially compared to the last 3 elections.

100% agree with that.

[ChocolateCitySkin]

I have my doubts on two of McCains key issues... but dear god anything could be better than Bush.

And lets be honest McCainocrats are either bigots or Hillary wing-nuts. Hillary and Obama were not so much different on policy.

[FanboyOf91]

And Im in the minority on the board, I dont think we have a bad choice this year. Especially compared to the last 3 elections.

Count me in.

Romney (the GOP version of Kerry), Giuliani (so many skeletons you'd think it was Anatomy 101), Edwards (What has he seriously done in the past 4 years?), Hillary (Gawd, more Clintons!)? :doh:

Somehow, the primary voters got it right this year.