Discussion thread for the upcoming NBA draft

[The Villi Phanatic]

I don’t follow the NBA much nowadays, but I do watch more than my fair share of college hoops so I figured I’d start a thread to get some discussion for the draft, which takes place this Thursday.

There are plenty of mock drafts out there so I just chose one (http://www.nbadraft.net/) to use as a basis for discussion.

A few comments based on this mock and others I’ve checked out:

1. Love is going substantially higher than I think he should. I’d have concerns about his game translating over to the NBA, at least in any dominating form, as he doesn’t really excel in any one area (unless you count an outlet pass). I think his inside-outside game won’t be as effective in the pros as his lack of speed will hinder him a bit, and I don’t expect him to be quite as much a force underneath either. I would drop him to the 10-15 range.

2. Darrell Arthur, Brandon Rush, and CDR are all going a lot lower than I think they should. I don’t know if I’m tripping here or just don’t understand today’s NBA game that well, but I don’t see how Rush and Arthur aren’t considered consensus top 10 and why CDR would last past the teens.

Rush has a great 3 pointer, the size and wingspan to get his shot off, can rebound quite well for a SG, should project as very good on defense and solid at worst, and has many quality intangibles (collegiate success including the championship this year, is clearly not going to be too selfish a player as he’s been criticized for the opposite in the past, etc.). The only negative I really see is that he’s not the slashing type 2 guard that may be more desirable, but he’s not just a spot up shooter and he can put the ball on the floor and take it to the hole.

As for Arthur, his offensive game is pure butter. He doesn’t have much shake and bake or anything, but he’s got such a smooth shot around the basket, and I expect his range to extend out to 18+ feet with him still knocking down most of his shots. One issue I do see with him is foul trouble as it hindered him too frequently this year at Kansas, but he’ll likely improve in this area as he gets more experience, and he probably won’t see the minutes right off the bat for it to matter much. I guess there’s also the concern that he isn’t that motivated, but I wouldn’t put it as that high of a concern, and certainly nothing that should bump him down more than a spot or 2.

3. Roy Hibbert is slotted a bit higher than I think he should be as I’d put him in the mid 20s. If a team is going after a big man, I’d give Robin Lopez a slight nod over Hibbert, and I don’t know much about McGee and Koufos so I can’t comment on them.

Hibbert does have a nice touch around the basket and can pass the ball well for a big man. However, he is nowhere near as aggressive on the offensive attack as a guy like Brook Lopez, and he’s not the force under the basket, whether it’s rebounding or on defense, that he should be and needs to be to warrant taking him as high as 18 and ahead of guys like Chalmers, Rush, Lopez, CDR, or even Bill Walker. Similar to Arthur, Hibbert gets in foul trouble too easily, and this could remain an issue in the NBA due to his lack of lateral quickness, assuming he gets enough playing time. To boot, he seemed to be half-asleep on the court much of this past season and doesn’t get up and down the floor well, even for a big man.

4. I also like Augustin, and even with the size concerns, I’d bump him up a little and put him ahead of Westbrook, another projected PG, and probably Gordon though I know a lot of cats will think I’m nuts for that. I know Augustin struggled in the Memphis game and doesn’t have blazing speed or great athleticism for an undersized guy, but he’s a gamer and is great at using screens and hesitations and angles to find lanes and create shots for himself and his teammates. Gordon, on the other hand, has amazing quickness for his first step and has nice size, but he’s lacking in shot selection, discipline, and ability to make his teammates better. He’s of course just coming off his freshman year and has plenty of time to improve in those areas, but I think they’ll remain issues to an extent throughout his career.

5. As for some other random points, while I understand the argument for taking Mayo as high as 3, I personally would drop him closer to 10, partially due to the same concerns as I have with Gordon. Alexander I’d put a bit lower as well, probably in the mid teens, though granted, I didn’t catch too much of him and WV this year. I’d also swap guys like Bill Walker and Hickson for where they are slotted (I know they play different positions).

6. I don’t know about the rest of you who follow college hoops, but there are quite a few guys projected to be drafted, even aside from the international players, who I don’t know much about. I didn’t watch much of the SEC this year, so while I’m familiar with guys like Speights, I can’t say I know much about others like Randolph and Hendrix, at least off the top. And then there are plenty of names like Plaisted, George Hill, and Koufos who I don’t know anything about.

7. As for guys not listed in this mock who I think should be in consideration to be drafted, I’ll suggest Shan Foster, Russell Robinson, Sean Singletary, Darnell Jackson, and Cliff Hammonds. I’ve seen Neitzel being drafted in mocks including this one, and I’d take the 3 PGs listed above over him. Shan Foster should get strong consideration for a mid to late 2nd round pick as a SG, and Darnell Jackson being drafted in this range wouldn’t surprise me.

[RedskinsFan28]

1. I too am a little skeptical about Love's game in the NBA. I think I heard the perfect comparison when somebody said Brad Miller. He can do a little bit of everything, but I cannot see him as a perennial All-Star. I think Memphis would be better off going for Brook Lopez, but Jerry West probably sees tons of potential in Love.

2. I'm shocked that Brandon Rush isn't projected to be a higher pick. I personally think the Suns should go for a guy like him (Raja Bell is no longer cutting it like he did a few years ago). Good shooter, great defender, long arms and he can hit the 3. CDR probably doesn't translate to most GM's as a guy who can average 20 over a season; probably best as a #2 or #3 option (Orlando?). Long and rangy, but I see him going 15-22.

3. As for Hibbert, I see him going to a team like Utah or even Houston. This season opened eyes of scouts as they noticed how Hibbert wouldn't really take over most games (some of the reason can be the Princeton offense). Some games he just didn't seem to show up in long stretches although I love his skills (passing, low post scoring). Utah would be the perfect fit for him, and I wonder if the Lakers would go for him if they had a 1st rounder...

4. I'm with you on the Augustin train. I think he was the 2nd best PG at the end of the season (behind Derrick Rose). I think there is TOO much emphasis out into height; perfect example would be Chris Paul. Augustin is a great leader, and Indiana should try to get him, and you gotta wonder if Toronto would be interested considering their PG issues. Gordon didn't impress me too much. Reminded me of an Allen Iverson-type guard except he has more weight on his frame. More of a 20ppg, 3 apg type of guy. Plus his late-season collapse didn't improve my view of him. Westbrook is explosive, and it looks like the Knicks are looking towards him, so that's the only reason I see him going that high (I thought he'd go to Sacramento, but we all know D'Antoni needs a PG to run that system and Marbury isn't going to cut it).

5. I doubt it happens, but I would like to see Mayo not be selected at #3 because it then makes Seattle think about whether to go for Jerryd Bayless or take Mayo. Mayo could possibly slip down to the Clippers or to the Knicks, but only if Minnesota picks Brook Lopez I would put Gordon lower as well. I haven't seen Anthony Randolph from LSU but he's rumored to be a top-10 pick. My only problem is his size (nbadraft.net lists him at 6'10" and 197 pounds) he'll need to add some weight.

6. Sean Singletary seems to maybe be a late second-round pick to me, DeMarcus Nelson of Duke looks to maybe be undrafted. My second round gem is Kyle Weaver of Washington State. Tall, rangy defender who could guard 1's, 2's and maybe some 3's. He needs to add weight and he's considered second round because he didn't really stand out, but if you ever saw the old Wisconsin teams under Dick Bennett, you know that that offense isn't exactly run and gun. Weaver fills the stat sheet and could be a good player for years.

Any predictions on who the Wizards should select??

[ixcuincle]

Any predictions on whether the Bulls should draft Rose or Beasley?

[Whiskeypeet]

I'd like to hear your thoughts on Jerryd Bayless. How does his game translate?

[ACW]

Any predictions on whether the Bulls should draft Rose or Beasley?

My :2cents: Beasley. Hinrich and Duhon are servicable enough.

[OrangeSkin]

I'm guessing Rose will star and Beasley will bust...just a hunch.

[The Villi Phanatic]

2. I'm shocked that Brandon Rush isn't projected to be a higher pick. I personally think the Suns should go for a guy like him (Raja Bell is no longer cutting it like he did a few years ago). Good shooter, great defender, long arms and he can hit the 3.

I actually have him top 5 on my board, actually at number 3 to be honest :yikes:

I don't know if I'm just missing the boat on this one and substantially over-rating Rush, but I don't see any reason in the world he should drop out of the top 10. The only reason I could see scouts being down on him is that he is moreso a shooter than the slashing type, ball-handler at the two guard, as I mentioned earlier, but he still has proven skillsets and ability on the offensive and defensive sides of the floor, and I don't see anyway I'm bumping him down below a number of the other guys going ahead of him in mocks (Hibbert, Love, Westbrook, Speights, etc.).

I also think the Kansas guys, Arthur and Rush specifically (and maybe even Russell Robinson if he's pursuing an NBA career), appear to have had their stock hurt by playing on a team that had so much depth in the backcourt and frontcourt with multiple guys seeing regular minutes, hence limiting the numbers that they could have been putting up.

Any predictions on whether the Bulls should draft Rose or Beasley?

If you take team needs out of the equation and evaluate Rose and Beasley in a vacuum, I'd give Rose a slight edge. I'm probably a bit biased towards the value of a PG as I've generally played point through the years and put a premium on a guy who will have the ball in his hands every possession and control the flow of an offense and be a floor manager.

Rose is absurdly athletic with great hops for a guy his height and unlike some of the other freshman with natural athleticism (gordon and mayo), he already knows how to apply it on the court within the team concept of the game and is more disciplined with better shot selection. He's going to take more than his share of shots for a point guard and a relatively small percentage of them may be ill-advised, but he's also going to get his teammates involved and get them good looks more than some other shooting-oriented PGs. He doesn't have a great shot, but I expect that to improve a bit and his ability to attack the basket is superb. Add on that he will get his share of boards, and he's a threat to put up a triple-double here and there though he will get them more in the frequency of a Chris Paul, perhaps a bit more, but not as often as J-Kidd.

Lastly, he's absolutely a gamer, who stepped up big-time in the tourney as a freshman, shooting over 50% over the 6 games on his way towards averaging about 21 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 6 assists against less than 2 TOs per game. For reference purposes, every one of these numbers was substantially better than his regular season numbers.

As for Beasley, his best skill is probably not his offensive inside-outside game, as good as it is, but his ability to rebound. He just dominated the glass in college, and I don't think it was primarily attributable to being taller or stronger than others as is often enough the case for good college rebounders. He has that seemingly innate ability to corral rebounds, ala Rodman, and I expect him to be a perennial top 5 rebounder in the pros as his career progresses. His offense, not to sell it short by any means, is of course very impressive as he can handle the ball very well for a guy his size and score from anywhere on the floor. He can get in foul trouble as can most big men and can be a bit slow/lazy at moving around on the defensive end, but that's just about the only knocks on him I can think of.

For an additional comparison between Rose and Beasley, I think Rose is a bit more mature and the leader type (largely by play on the court, not as much vocally though of course he's just 19 or whatever). And if you're the Chicago Bulls, he's a Chicago kid who in my eyes is the premier talent, albeit just by a hair, so I'd pick him. I understand that Beasley may fit more of a need for the Bulls than Rose and is certainly worthy of the #1 pick, but I think I'd still take Rose if I was Chicago.

[PleaseBlitz]

Joe Alexander was unknown in January. He will go in the top 15. :applause:

[Skins4Life6388]

roy hibbert= soft. if the wizards draft him i might start crying

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

Joe Alexander was unknown in January. He will go in the top 15. :applause:

I just read that the Bucks might select him at #8.

[PleaseBlitz]

I just read that the Bucks might select him at #8.

Athletically, he's a freak of nature. He's very raw, he grew up in Asia and didnt start playing basketball until he was in HS. His first coach in college didnt help him much, but Huggins turned him into a machine.

[DieselPwr44]

I'm guessing Rose will star and Beasley will bust...just a hunch.

Especially since we've found out that since these pro workouts, Beasley has went from 6'10" to 6'7".

Rose should be the #1 pick IMO.

Since the league has basically started calling the hand check rule, it's transforming the league into a guard's league.

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

roy hibbert= soft. if the wizards draft him i might start crying

Did you know that Hibbert is having great workouts and might not even be available when the Wiz select?

[Heidenreich]

The Knicks will pick someone who totally sucks, probably from another country.

[RedskinsFan28]

I'd like to hear your thoughts on Jerryd Bayless. How does his game translate?

I got to see just about all the Arizona games since I lived out in Phoenix. Bayless isn't a true PG (moreso 2-guard in a PG's body). He is explosive, athletic, and quick. Sometimes he tries to do too much, and he often tried to settle on a certain move (pump fake to get the defender in the air then jump into him to get the foul. Smart move by a young player, but it gets predictable and old when you try it 3 times a game). He didn't strike me much as a vocal leader (I personally thought Arizona missed Nic Wise more when he was injured as opposed to the time Bayless missed with a knee injury), but the athleticism, shooting-40% from 3, last time I checked-, and competitive nature makes him so appealing to NBA teams.

[The Villi Phanatic]

I'd like to hear your thoughts on Jerryd Bayless. How does his game translate?

I'll add on a bit to Redskinsfan28's reply.

Bayless can score, that's for sure. He's got a very good shot from basically anywhere on the floor and has better shot selection than a guy like Gordon, which is why he was able to finish with a substantially higher FG % (45.8 to 43.3) despite not being able to attack the basket for easy scoring opportunities as well as Gordon. Bayless can definitely put the ball on the floor though and drive and create shots, just not quite on par with a Gordon, who is naturally a bit bigger and more athletic.

One concern with Bayless is probably what position he'll play in the NBA as he's not a true PG, and while he scored a lot when running point with Wise out, he's not the type of guy who's going to rack up the assists and get his teammates involved as much as you might like. With that being said, I think he'll end up manning the point position in a combo guard type role, and he'll do fine in this role as long as the team makeup around him is not solely relying on him to create and set up the offense for them.