Forget global warming: Welcome to the new Ice Age

[Duncan]

http://www.nationalpost.com/opinion/columnists/story.html?id=d7c7fcce-d248-4e97-ab72-1adbdbb1d0d0&k=4336&p=1

Forget global warming: Welcome to the new Ice Age

Lorne Gunter, National Post Published: Monday, February 25, 2008

Snow cover over North America and much of Siberia, Mongolia and China is greater than at any time since 1966.

The U.S. National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) reported that many American cities and towns suffered record cold temperatures in January and early February. According to the NCDC, the average temperature in January "was -0.3 F cooler than the 1901-2000 (20th century) average."

China is surviving its most brutal winter in a century. Temperatures in the normally balmy south were so low for so long that some middle-sized cities went days and even weeks without electricity because once power lines had toppled it was too cold or too icy to repair them.

There have been so many snow and ice storms in Ontario and Quebec in the past two months that the real estate market has felt the pinch as home buyers have stayed home rather than venturing out looking for new houses.

In just the first two weeks of February, Toronto received 70 cm of snow, smashing the record of 66.6 cm for the entire month set back in the pre-SUV, pre-Kyoto, pre-carbon footprint days of 1950.

And remember the Arctic Sea ice? The ice we were told so hysterically last fall had melted to its "lowest levels on record? Never mind that those records only date back as far as 1972 and that there is anthropological and geological evidence of much greater melts in the past.

The ice is back.

Gilles Langis, a senior forecaster with the Canadian Ice Service in Ottawa, says the Arctic winter has been so severe the ice has not only recovered, it is actually 10 to 20 cm thicker in many places than at this time last year.

OK, so one winter does not a climate make. It would be premature to claim an Ice Age is looming just because we have had one of our most brutal winters in decades.

But if environmentalists and environment reporters can run around shrieking about the manmade destruction of the natural order every time a robin shows up on Georgian Bay two weeks early, then it is at least fair game to use this winter's weather stories to wonder whether the alarmist are being a tad premature.

And it's not just anecdotal evidence that is piling up against the climate-change dogma.

According to Robert Toggweiler of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at Princeton University and Joellen Russell, assistant professor of biogeochemical dynamics at the University of Arizona -- two prominent climate modellers -- the computer models that show polar ice-melt cooling the oceans, stopping the circulation of warm equatorial water to northern latitudes and triggering another Ice Age (a la the movie The Day After Tomorrow) are all wrong.

"We missed what was right in front of our eyes," says Prof. Russell. It's not ice melt but rather wind circulation that drives ocean currents northward from the tropics. Climate models until now have not properly accounted for the wind's effects on ocean circulation, so researchers have compensated by over-emphasizing the role of manmade warming on polar ice melt.

But when Profs. Toggweiler and Russell rejigged their model to include the 40-year cycle of winds away from the equator (then back towards it again), the role of ocean currents bringing warm southern waters to the north was obvious in the current Arctic warming.

Last month, Oleg Sorokhtin, a fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, shrugged off manmade climate change as "a drop in the bucket." Showing that solar activity has entered an inactive phase, Prof. Sorokhtin advised people to "stock up on fur coats."

He is not alone. Kenneth Tapping of our own National Research Council, who oversees a giant radio telescope focused on the sun, is convinced we are in for a long period of severely cold weather if sunspot activity does not pick up soon.

The last time the sun was this inactive, Earth suffered the Little Ice Age that lasted about five centuries and ended in 1850. Crops failed through killer frosts and drought. Famine, plague and war were widespread. Harbours froze, so did rivers, and trade ceased.

It's way too early to claim the same is about to happen again, but then it's way too early for the hysteria of the global warmers, too.

[TradeTheBeal!]

The author, Lorne Gunter, is the canadian equivalent of William Kristol so take his "opinion" with a grain of salt.

[Predicto]

My eyes tend to glaze over whenever I read an article that contains a sentence like this: "But if environmentalists and environment reporters can run around shrieking about the manmade destruction of the natural order every time a robin shows up on Georgian Bay two weeks early..." Clearly the writer has an agenda.

Nevertheless, I welcome further investigation into this "wind" theory. No door of scientific inquiry should ever be closed.

[flashback]

1350 - 1850 was an ice age?

[Duncan]

The author, Lorne Gunter, is the canadian equivalent of William Kristol so take his "opinion" with a grain of salt.

Robert Toggweiler

Joellen Russell

Oleg Sorokhtin

Kenneth Tapping

Are they neocons?

[Duncan]

My eyes tend to glaze over whenever I read an article that contains a sentence like this: "But if environmentalists and environment reporters can run around shrieking about the manmade destruction of the natural order every time a robin shows up on Georgian Bay two weeks early..." Clearly the writer has an agenda.

Nevertheless, I welcome further investigation into this "wind" theory. No door of scientific inquiry should ever be closed.

Clearly this guy has an agenda but so do these guys...

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1176980,00.html

Global Warming Heats Up - TIME

"No one can say exactly what it looks like when a planet takes ill, but it probably looks a lot like Earth. Never mind what you've heard about global warming as a slow-motion emergency that would take decades to play out. Suddenly and unexpectedly, the crisis is upon us."

http://www.nytimes.com/library/national/science/081900sci-climate-pole.html

Ages-Old Polar Icecap Is Melting, Scientists Find

"The North Pole is melting. The thick ice that has for ages covered the Arctic Ocean at the pole has turned to water, recent visitors there reported yesterday. At least for the time being, an ice-free patch of ocean about a mile wide has opened at the very top of the world, something that has presumably never before been seen by humans and is more evidence that global warming may be real and already affecting climate."

http://www.usatoday.com/travel/news/2006-11-12-7-wonders-polar-ice-caps_x.htm

Polar ice caps: The keys to life on Earth

"Still, as the 21st century dawns, it is becoming increasingly clear that the mind-blowing expanses of frozen water at the top and bottom of Earth hold the key to the future of life as we know it."

Care to guess how many "Polar Ice Caps Increase 20 cm" stories are on these editors’ desks?

[stevenaa]

1350 - 1850 was an ice age?

Little Ice Age

http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/lia/little_ice_age.html

[TradeTheBeal!]

Robert Toggweiler

Joellen Russell

Oleg Sorokhtin

Kenneth Tapping

Are they neocons?

I don't know. Are you?

[Sarge]

Does ths mean AlGore can go back to flying everywhere in his private jet?

Oh wait. He never stopped that, did he?

[TradeTheBeal!]

Does ths mean AlGore can go back to flying everywhere in his private jet?

Oh wait. He never stopped that, did he?

Someone's gotta give those retired Air Force guys a job. What with the Napalm industry a little slow these days.

[nneece]

Who wrote this, Rush Limbaugh? Typical conservative with an agenda.

[Duncan]

Does ths mean AlGore can go back to flying everywhere in his private jet?

Oh wait. He never stopped that, did he?

No Sarge, Al is wealthy enough to purchase "carbon credits" so he sleeps well at night. He also makes a nice profit in the process, kind of like a televangelist.

[Duncan]

Who wrote this, Rush Limbaugh? Typical conservative with an agenda.

Yawn....

Do you dispute the science in the article?

[The Evil Genius]

Hooray if most of us were wrong about global warming. Still, I don't see how this impacts being environmentally conscientious about the earth. You know, that little thing that the global warming crowd wants you to be.

[The Evil Genius]

Additionally..this article seems to represent more of an internal struggle of the old school climatologists vs the new school ecologists.

[twa]

Want more?

http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=10866

World Temperatures according to the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction. Note the steep drop over the last year.

Twelve-month long drop in world temperatures wipes out a century of warming

Over the past year, anecdotal evidence for a cooling planet has exploded. China has its coldest winter in 100 years. Baghdad sees its first snow in all recorded history. North America has the most snowcover in 50 years, with places like Wisconsin the highest since record-keeping began. Record levels of Antarctic sea ice, record cold in Minnesota, Texas, Florida, Mexico, Australia, Iran, Greece, South Africa, Greenland, Argentina, Chile -- the list goes on and on.

No more than anecdotal evidence, to be sure. But now, that evidence has been supplanted by hard scientific fact. All four major global temperature tracking outlets (Hadley, NASA's GISS, UAH, RSS) have released updated data. All show that over the past year, global temperatures have dropped precipitously.

Meteorologist Anthony Watts compiled the results of all the sources. The total amount of cooling ranges from 0.65C up to 0.75C -- a value large enough to erase nearly all the global warming recorded over the past 100 years. All in one year time. For all sources, it's the single fastest temperature change ever recorded, either up or down.

Scientists quoted in a past DailyTech article link the cooling to reduced solar activity which they claim is a much larger driver of climate change than man-made greenhouse gases. The dramatic cooling seen in just 12 months time seems to bear that out. While the data doesn't itself disprove that carbon dioxide is acting to warm the planet, it does demonstrate clearly that more powerful factors are now cooling it.

Let's hope those factors stop fast. Cold is more damaging than heat. The mean temperature of the planet is about 54 degrees. Humans -- and most of the crops and animals we depend on -- prefer a temperature closer to 70.

Historically, the warm periods such as the Medieval Climate Optimum were beneficial for civilization. Corresponding cooling events such as the Little Ice Age, though, were uniformly bad news.

[Thiebear]

We should be at the end of the warming and spend the next 18000 years heading back into the ice age...

I think were much more likely to see yellowstone blow before the iceage though.. the two can go back to back and the environmentalist will rejoice..(those still living). The virus that is people cant hurt the planet anymore (ironic though aint it).

Again: like we think we matter... HA!

[GibbsFactor]

Yeah, because DC averages 17 inches of snow a year and we haven't came within 10 inches of that since 2003. :mad:

[PeterMP]

Want more?

http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=10866

Do you find it a little odd that they are comparing two pretty arbitrary numbers (Jan 07 to Jan 08) vs. looking at the total account of the year, which acts to avg. extremes.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/ann/global.html#gtemp

The fifth warmest year on record. This despite that for part of 2006 and into 2007 the sun was at a min in terms of out put w/ respect to the ~11 year solar cycle. Not that surprising if you ask me.

Is it possible that something will happen unexpectedly and solar out put will decrease unexpectedly and temps will stop going up? Sure.

It is also possible that you will get hit by a car tomorrow. That isn't generally accepted as an excuse for risky behaviour.

[twa]

Do you find it a little odd that they are comparing two pretty arbitrary numbers (Jan 07 to Jan 08) vs. looking at the total account of the year, which acts to avg. extremes.

Not using just January,the temps for a year from what they say....Right?

Or did I forget how to read?

[PeterMP]

Not using just January,the temps for a year from what they say....Right?

Or did I forget how to read?

I read it as comparing Jan to Jan. The site I gave list 2007 as warmer than 2006.

If they are talking about year to year, then somebody's data is wrong, but I do think they are comparing Jan to Jan.

Jan 2008 is only the 31st warments on record.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2008/jan/jan08.html

I'm pretty certain they are taking advantage of that cool Jan. to make their point.

Solar activity was slow to start up after the min., which no doubt contributed to the low avgerage temp.

Is this just an abberation or is this a new solar trend?

We don't know and probably won't know for a while. A later start of sun spot activity normally means a less active cycle (and less solar output) so we might be looking at cooler weather for the next 11 years or so (on average- w/ in that there will still be highs and lows) only to jump up w/ the next cycle if it returns to "normal".

[Oldskool]

Most scientists who aren't in blind lock step with the Environmetal Movement have started to address the fact that the Sun will be going in a period of "hibernation" in or around 2012 or so.

According to the records found within the earth, when solar radiation dips like it is supposed to, global temps drop about 1-3 f.

[PeterMP]

Most scientists who aren't in blind lock step with the Environmetal Movement have started to address the fact that the Sun will be going in a period of "hibernation" in or around 2012 or so.

According to the records found within the earth, when solar radiation dips like it is supposed to, global temps drop about 1-3 f.

Do you have a link?

[Duncan]

Do you have a link?

Do you think global warming caused the 10-20 cm increase in the polar ice cap or is this guy a liar? Come on Peter, certainly you can find a few links disputing this or attributing it to hair spray or something. Maybe you can link the scientists that admit "We missed what was right in front of our eyes" to an oil company.

[Duncan]

Hooray if most of us were wrong about global warming. Still, I don't see how this impacts being environmentally conscientious about the earth. You know, that little thing that the global warming crowd wants you to be.

So you want to have an honest debate about the environment at the same time saying, “screw the facts”. Lucky for you most people agree.