Forget global warming: Welcome to the new Ice Age

[Oldskool]

Here's your original comment:

"Most scientists who aren't in blind lock step with the Environmetal Movement have started to address the fact that the Sun will be going in a period of "hibernation" in or around 2012 or so."

Anywhere where somebody says this BEFORE Jan of this year that a solar hibernation is coming?

I know now some people are saying it is possible, but that is after the late solar cycle start up, and I hope you don't expect the whole scientific community to change their mind after a month and a half of decreased solar activity.

Beyond that, we are talking about an ~11 year cycle that has with in it some variation. Unless you can provide a link that suggest otherwise, to my knowledge, this could be a less active cycle, and then next cycle things could return to "normal" or we could even have an above avg. cycle.

We're coming off of a regular min for the solar cycle. The next solar cycle has started slowly. Temps are down. It isn't surprising.

Could the solar cycle speed up and essentially be an avg. solar cycle?

Yes, but history shows that on avg. the later the solar cycle starts the less intense it is so we are most likely looking at the next 11 years having decreased solar out put and probably temps.

Does that mean we've entered into a new larger cycle where all of the solar cycles will be less intense then they have been in the recent past? No. History also shows that solar cycles go up and down. One is down, and the next is up.

Most likely the next solar cycle will be somewhere close to the "average" solar cycle.

Could this represent a long term (greater than the next 11 years) change in solar output? Sure, but I haven't seen anybody present any evidence to support that.

Sorry, those articles didn't have that date listed.

Try this..

http://wolfhowling.blogspot.com/2008/02/maunder-minimum-2008-international.html

“Astrophysics knows two solar activity cycles, of 11 and 200 years. Both are caused by changes in the radius and area of the irradiating solar surface.” Yes, the Sun itself goes through periods of change. Dr. Sorokhtin believes that “Earth has passed the peak of its warmer period and a fairly cold spell will set in quite soon, by 2012. Real cold will come when solar activity reaches its minimum, by 2041, and will last for 50-60 years or even longer.”

[PeterMP]

Sorry, those articles didn't have that date listed.

Try this..

http://wolfhowling.blogspot.com/2008/02/maunder-minimum-2008-international.html

“Astrophysics knows two solar activity cycles, of 11 and 200 years. Both are caused by changes in the radius and area of the irradiating solar surface.” Yes, the Sun itself goes through periods of change. Dr. Sorokhtin believes that “Earth has passed the peak of its warmer period and a fairly cold spell will set in quite soon, by 2012. Real cold will come when solar activity reaches its minimum, by 2041, and will last for 50-60 years or even longer.”

That was published in Feb. The question is to find somebody predicting a drop in temps related to the 200 year cycle before Jan of this year when it was appearant that temps and sun spots were going to be down.

The reason it is difficult to do so is because the 200 year cycle is highly variable in intensity and timing. The Oort cycle was hardly a dip.

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-0095-00/fs-0095-00.pdf

Nobody was going out on a limb and proclaiming when the cycle would start or how intense it would be and how it would affect temps.

In addition, the link between temps in the 200 year solar cycle are at best unclear. Look at your own link:

"The most recent such event was the mini-Ice Age that climatologists date from around 1300 to 1850. In the midst of this there was a distinct solar hibernation from around 1650 to 1715."

It is almost like the mini-ice age was caused by one min, and then spanned two others and two peaks. If the 200 year cycle was the end all and be all, why didn't it warm up, cool down, warm back up, and then cool back down?

Or try picking out a 200 year cycle out of this:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c1/2000_Year_Temperature_Comparison.png

(If you want to read some real science on this, try this:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V3S-4N61FY1-1&_user=526750&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&view=c&_acct=C000023759&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=526750&md5=e2d51a08096f40c77faa57f4cb929638)

But sure people are now going to say, I told you all along that the 200 year cycle was going to change over, we were going to see a drastic decrease in solar output, and that temps would take a drastic decline.

That is unless temps don't decrease drastically and/or the solar activity picks up.

As I said before, maybe we've entered a new longer term solar cycle where there will be less solar intensity and temps will be down. Maybe we haven't, but you certainly can't conclude that a month and a half of solar activity.

You likely won't even be able to conclude that after this 11 year cycle is over. It is likely that this is just a low cycle due to the variation in the solar cycles. On average, solar cycles are likely to average. It most likely the next cycle will be average.

[Oldskool]

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080609124551.htm

Sun Goes Longer Than Normal Without Producing Sunspots

ScienceDaily (Jun. 9, 2008) — The sun has been lying low for the past couple of years, producing no sunspots and giving a break to satellites.

That's good news for people who scramble when space weather interferes with their technology, but it became a point of discussion for the scientists who attended an international solar conference at Montana State University. Approximately 100 scientists from Europe, Asia, Latin America, Africa and North America gathered June 1-6 to talk about "Solar Variability, Earth's Climate and the Space Environment."

The scientists said periods of inactivity are normal for the sun, but this period has gone on longer than usual.

"It continues to be dead," said Saku Tsuneta with the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, program manager for the Hinode solar mission. "That's a small concern, a very small concern."

The Hinode satellite is a Japanese mission with the United States and United Kingdom as partners. The satellite carries three telescopes that together show how changes on the sun's surface spread through the solar atmosphere. MSU researchers are among those operating the X-ray telescope. The satellite orbits 431 miles above ground, crossing both poles and making one lap every 95 minutes, giving Hinode an uninterrupted view of the sun for several months out of the year.

Dana Longcope, a solar physicist at MSU, said the sun usually operates on an 11-year cycle with maximum activity occurring in the middle of the cycle. Minimum activity generally occurs as the cycles change. Solar activity refers to phenomena like sunspots, solar flares and solar eruptions. Together, they create the weather than can disrupt satellites in space and technology on earth.

The last cycle reached its peak in 2001 and is believed to be just ending now, Longcope said. The next cycle is just beginning and is expected to reach its peak sometime around 2012. Today's sun, however, is as inactive as it was two years ago, and scientists aren't sure why.

"It's a dead face," Tsuneta said of the sun's appearance.

Tsuneta said solar physicists aren't like weather forecasters; They can't predict the future. They do have the ability to observe, however, and they have observed a longer-than-normal period of solar inactivity. In the past, they observed that the sun once went 50 years without producing sunspots. That period, from approximately 1650 to 1700, occurred during the middle of a little ice age on Earth that lasted from as early as the mid-15th century to as late as the mid-19th century.

Tsuneta said he doesn't know how long the sun will continue to be inactive, but scientists associated with the Hinode mission are ready for it to resume maximum activity. They have added extra ground stations to pick up signals from Hinode in case solar activity interferes with instruments at other stations around the world. The new stations, ready to start operating this summer, are located in India, Norway, Alaska and the South Pole.

Establishing those stations, as well as the Hinode mission, required international cooperation, Tsuneta said. No one country had the resources to carry out those projects by itself.

Four countries, three space agencies and 11 organizations worked together on Hinode which was launched in September 2006, Tsuneta said. Among the collaborators was Loren Acton, a research professor of physics at MSU. Tsuneta and Acton worked together closely from 1986-2002 and were reunited at the MSU conference.

"His leadership was immense, superb," Tsuneta said about Acton.

Acton, 72, said he is still enthused by solar physics and the new questions being raised. In fact, he wished he could knock 22 years off his age and extend his career even longer.

"It's too much fun," he said. "There's so much exciting stuff come up, I would like to be part of it."

[PeterMP]

Tsuneta said solar physicists aren't like weather forecasters; They can't predict the future.

So with respect to something like global warming how do you take into an account an unpredcitable variable?

You can't.

It less active now, but next year it could be more active than normal.

I will also point out that Jan. was cold based on recent history (31st warmest Jan on record out of over 100 years), but every month since has been relatively warm (March was 2 and April was 13 (edit- looked only at the Ocean number at first)). No number for May yet.

[Koolblue13]

All I know about global warming is two things.

1. We should do more research

2. It will really, really suck if it's happening and we don't.

[jbooma]

The last time the sun was this inactive, Earth suffered the Little Ice Age that lasted about five centuries and ended in 1850. Crops failed through killer frosts and drought. Famine, plague and war were widespread. Harbours froze, so did rivers, and trade ceased.

That was due to the massive volcano correct??

Honestly does anyone have a clue on climate in this world :doh:

Well our weathermen can never get it right so maybe anyone that deals with climate can't get it right :laugh: :laugh: