Ji Posted January 11, 2008 Author Share Posted January 11, 2008 Except in 2003 which hammered us. 2003 was a Miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skins24 Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 Rule of thumb:NEVER PREDICT SNOWSTORMS IN THE EAST DURING LA NINA YEARS! Why not? Last time we had a La Nina like this, we had a pretty good winter ('99-'00) El Ninos are the snow killers where we get .01 inches of snow for the whole winter and 60 degree weather straight through.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toe Jam Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 you have pretty good knowledge. are you a met student? Never took a met class. Learned everything I know on my own. I'm actually going storm chasing in the plains this Spring with a group from Virginia Tech and other area colleges. Should be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toe Jam Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 Why not?Last time we had a La Nina like this, we had a pretty good winter ('99-'00) El Ninos are the snow killers where we get .01 inches of snow for the whole winter and 60 degree weather straight through.... That is in your area. In my area it's about the opposite. Below average snowfall in every La Nina year except for one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2008 Author Share Posted January 11, 2008 Why not?Last time we had a La Nina like this, we had a pretty good winter ('99-'00) El Ninos are the snow killers where we get .01 inches of snow for the whole winter and 60 degree weather straight through.... actually our best years are weak la ninas and weak el nino 95-96 weak la nina 02-03 weak el nino those 2 winters are my superbowl of weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2008 Author Share Posted January 11, 2008 99-00 was very similar to this year. Warm Dec..warm early jan..then it rocked for about 2 weeks including the famous jan 25,2000 blizzard. A week later, there was another 6-8 inch storm on Super Bowl sunday and then winter ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2008 Author Share Posted January 11, 2008 if we dont get a major snowstorm by the end of this month, i will quit this retarted hobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sticksboi05 Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 2003 was a Miller A I'm pretty sure there was an energy transfer. http://berkswintercast.tripod.com/id85.html "this storm was a Miller B type storm and featured an energy transfer from the initial low tracking towards the eastern Ohio Valley to a coastal low that had formed at the southern NC coast." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burgundy Burner Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 I have family that lives in Lowndes County, MS and in Caledonia. My uncle's home was destroyed by the tornado that put the school bus on top of the school. Two cousins also had major damage to their homes. My uncle's farm supplies and equipment are missing - literally blown away. Keep these people in MS and AL in your prayers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark The Homer Posted January 12, 2008 Share Posted January 12, 2008 you have pretty good knowledge. are you a met student? Anyway...we could get clipped with light snow on Monday but this isnt the monster the gfs and the euro were showing yesterday anymore. Its frustrating. I just want one storm where i can actually start to predict accumulations. So your thread title is incorrect, right? We can take the word Major out, right? And the work Likely out too, right? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2008 Author Share Posted January 12, 2008 So your thread title is incorrect, right? We can take the word Major out, right? And the work Likely out too, right? Thanks uh no....the models have been flipping every run so its hard to get a good handle on the storm. Remember, we just came out of an extreme warm pattern and the modeling is having a terrible time.. The models tonight are starting to trend back to their solution from yesterday so we are still in the mix for a major winter storm for sunday night/monday. as a matter of fact, based on the new model run that i just saw...we may have to put a winter storm watch for sunday night if i was worked for the nws Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2008 Author Share Posted January 12, 2008 still worried about temps but i think its gonna storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sticksboi05 Posted January 12, 2008 Share Posted January 12, 2008 Seems that the just released 0Z NAM looks very good for us... Truth to this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2008 Author Share Posted January 12, 2008 Seems that the just released 0Z NAM looks very good for us...Truth to this? dramatic shift....yes. Went from nothing to a major snowstorm in one run. Comma head snows over us..maybe thunder......... if it verified. I need to see a few more runs before i make a forecast. this flip floppy stuff is driving me crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sticksboi05 Posted January 12, 2008 Share Posted January 12, 2008 dramatic shift....yes. Went from nothing to a major snowstorm in one run. Comma head snows over us..maybe thunder.........if it verified. I need to see a few more runs before i make a forecast. this flip floppy stuff is driving me crazy Well it seems also that the 11:05 GFS is a big model update also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skins24 Posted January 12, 2008 Share Posted January 12, 2008 Most of the runs (that I've seen) has/had it snowing here at some point. Just varying strengths of the storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sticksboi05 Posted January 12, 2008 Share Posted January 12, 2008 Most of the runs (that I've seen) has/had it snowing here at some point. Just varying strengths of the storm.... The last two 00Z NAM and GFS runs look good. Especially the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toe Jam Posted January 12, 2008 Share Posted January 12, 2008 Just saw the new runs. This looks interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rdsknbill Posted January 12, 2008 Share Posted January 12, 2008 nothing . again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sticksboi05 Posted January 12, 2008 Share Posted January 12, 2008 Just saw the new runs.This looks interesting.. Yeah man the 00Z NAM looks very good and the GFS 00Z looked pretty good. Maybe some backlash snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom [Giants fan] Posted January 12, 2008 Share Posted January 12, 2008 I have three free snowdays here on Long Island. I need some snowstorms. Accuweather.com's long range forecast is looking kind of cold and snowy by next weekend. But we'll see, those long range forecasts change a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toe Jam Posted January 12, 2008 Share Posted January 12, 2008 If the NAM verifies then you guys are gonna get walloped. However I think that I wouldn't put too much stock into the NAM. It hasn't done a very good job this season. But again.. you never really know with these models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2008 Author Share Posted January 12, 2008 the 00z nam looked too good last night..too good to be true. It really didnt have any support from other models. The problem is that the storm is still going to phase too late. This could be major storm for NJ to New England but we will just get brushed by it unless somehow the phasing occured sooner and the storm started bombing at hatterras. I will make a forecast soon but for our area, i think its going to be a close miss. Like usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinsNatsFan Posted January 12, 2008 Share Posted January 12, 2008 if we dont get a major snowstorm by the end of this month, i will quit this retarted hobby I hope you don't quit this, regardless of how this winter ends up. These threads are fun. I'll look forward to them next winter as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toe Jam Posted January 12, 2008 Share Posted January 12, 2008 Yeah man the 00Z NAM looks very good and the GFS 00Z looked pretty good.Maybe some backlash snows. Dude.. Did I just see you over on the Accuweather forums? Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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