NFL Draft 2000 - 2004 (about 50 good picks (prob less) a year)

[Yomar The Nifty]

strictly FYI

this is obviously subjective, but I quickly skimmed the drafts from 2000 through 2004 and counted how many good draft picks there were, and the range was between 24 to 28 players each year. I am sure I missed some players and some people may disagree with the players I selected (for example, I didn't count Ladell Betts even though I think he is more than talented enough b/c he hasn't cracked the Skins starting lineup b/c of bad luck and circumstance), but I feel pretty safe with saying that there are approximately only 30 good draft picks made a year or roughly one out of every seven picks...

I was pretty tough on first and second round picks, less tough on later round picks. I was also pretty tired and doing it as a way to stay awake, so if you disagree go ahead and do your own study.

The only other issue I can think of is that I only looked at 5 recent drafts (05 and 06 are still too fresh and I stopped at 2000 because I felt like it)

below are the players I deemed to be good picks

[Yomar The Nifty]

strictly FYI

this is obviously subjective, but I quickly skimmed the drafts from 2000 through 2004 and counted how many good draft picks there were, and the range was between 24 to 28 players each year. I am sure I missed some players and some people may disagree with the players I selected (for example, I didn't count Ladell Betts even though I think he is more than talented enough b/c he hasn't cracked the Skins starting lineup b/c of bad luck and circumstance), but I feel pretty safe with saying that there are approximately only 30 good draft picks made a year or roughly one out of every seven picks...

I was pretty tough on first and second round picks, less tough on later round picks. I was also pretty tired and doing it as a way to stay awake, so if you disagree go ahead and do your own study.

The only other issue I can think of is that I only looked at 5 recent drafts (05 and 06 are still too fresh and I stopped at 2000 because I felt like it)

above are the players I deemed to be good picks

[Yomar The Nifty]

hit rates listed below

[[[ghost]]]

Those are some VERY interesting stats. Did you do the research on your own? If so, this is clearly one of the most well thought out posts I've ever seen. Good job.

[InTikiITrust]

No offense, but to have Rivers and Losman over E. Manning there is a joke.

[panel]

Betts was not considered a good pick, neither was Cartwright. That list is flawed and leaves out good players.

[Audible_Red40]

Like you said it is subjective, but job well done.

I am sure many fans and teams would disagree about importance and impact of players (not stated) even though they may not add up to others or pro bowl numbers.

None the less, great job on the research.

[CallMeGreen]

strictly FYI

this is obviously subjective, ...

I was pretty tough on first and second round picks, less tough on later round picks. ...

Are you really just 15!?!

What a refreshing pre-draft post. Nice to not have to rationalize any rampant trade rumors for a change.

And, not bad research by any standards. You state up front your subjectivity, which has to be obvious for such a discussion like this. Plus, you explain your different level of standards depending on which round a player was selected.

There's plenty of room for other opinions on this, and even among "professional" draft evaluaters I'm certain you'd see quite a few differences.

So saying all that, this was a very good beginning and a well-done post.

[Gilligan28]

I think this serves a good purpose with the threads that have been on here in the last month. We all want an impact player with our first rd pick and who he listed are guys that have great to moderate impact on their team and would NOT be considered strictly role players on their squad. It shows in a definitive way that a top 10 pick is really 50/50. You can bash our FO and scouting but it shows that every team has a 50 50 shot at it in the first round despite their better judgement

[BKSkinsFan]

There may be some exceptions as to what teams may consider a good pick. For example a 1st round pick is expected to be a starter and a high 1st round is expected to be an elite player, where a 4th rounder and on down could be considered a success if he is a great special teamer, or able to provide solid depth.

Very interesting numbers, showing the 1st round is less than a 50/50 shot of getting a great player. The second round is even lower, however with the salary, is worth the risk for a chance at a solid addition.

Makes you wish we stopped trading those oppurtunities away just to take a risk on a free agent with a large contract that may or may not perform better than the player we could have picked up with the draft pick.

We've basically shown all the other teams in the NFL that building through free agency is just about as risky as building through the draft, only way more expensive, which hurts you when you lose the good players you did draft because you have no cap room to extend their contracts.

[Storm]

I think there is one Redskin-drafted player on those four lists. pathethic.

[mardi gras skin]

I think there is one Redskin-drafted player on those four lists. pathethic.

There are 5 years listed. We drafted Taylor, Cooley, Dockery, and Samuels. 4 per team is about average.

[grego]

No offense, but to have Rivers and Losman over E. Manning there is a joke.

maybe losman, but rivers is better than the downward spiraling career of eli.

no offense.

[InTikiITrust]

maybe losman, but rivers is better than the downward spiraling career of eli.

no offense.

Downward spiral? Come on man, is that a joke? 48 TDs in the past 2 years is good, no matter who it is.

Give him good coaching and he'll be a top 5 QB in the league.

[The Rook]

Betts was not considered a good pick, neither was Cartwright. That list is flawed and leaves out good players.

We are waiting for your list.

This is good work - one person's opinion, but I like it!

This is ES at it's best - opinion with statistics. Well done Yomar! :applause:

:helmet: The Rook

[E-Dog Night]

I was also pretty tired and doing it as a way to stay awake

Just wanted to be clear about this - you engage in fairly extensive draft research to stay awake? What you do to try and fall asleep?

BTW - it was well done. Puts things in perspective a bit.

But I would say that there are plenty of very good starters in this league not on that list. This not to say that I disagree, so much as to illuminate the fact that the other 6 out of 7 picks do not turn out to be a bunch of bums who didn't make it in the NFL. In fact, the vast majority of productive starters in the league are in that "other" catagory.

What I'd really like to know is what percentage of picks in the 1st 3 rounds end up starting (or getting at least 30% of the potential snaps at their position).

Need to stay awake tonight?

[Peregrine]

Very nicely done. Only suggestion would to have listed some of the border line players you left out(so people could get a feel for just how subjective the list was, and whether they thought any of the players you left off were good).

[jrockster21]

Out of curiousity, what was your criterion for eliminating players? In 2001 you left of Justin Smith, Andre Carter, Dan Morgan, Kendrell Bell, Ken Lucas, Fred Smoot, Chris Chambers, Andre Dyson, Mike Gandy, Kareem McKenzie and Jonas Jennings from the first 3 rounds alone, all of whom have been full-time, successful starters in the NFL.

[twist]

You’re focusing too much on player’s names that you recognize, when you’re missing a huge amount of quality linemen.

It doesn’t take much effort to see that this is a problem for your analysis.

I could say look at one of the best offensive lines last season.

These two start for the Chargers offensive line:

Nick Hardwick C

Year:2004 Round:3 Pick:3, Chargers

Shane Olivea G/T

Year:2004 Round:7 Pick:8, Chargers

It’s a wonder any NFL team can field an offensive line when according to you, there have only been enough quality picks in this area over a long span of years, so that you can count them on one hand.

[The Sisko]

I agree with Twist and Jrock. Your list also has another problem. Your list focused on stars and hence didn't take into account the lunchpail guys, i.e. the "merely" average to good players, that make up the bulk of most teams. Plus there are the backups and developmental players that may in fact be good/great but riding the pine behind someone else that's currently better.

Nice try but it's flawed. You might think about trying coffee instead.

[52decleetzu]

Dude,nice work but I dont know what you classify as a "good pick" 31 per year out of 250 or so?? You have to be kidding right? Just because a guy isnt a starter or pro bowler doesnt mean it was a bad pick.

If I have some time I will try to go through and see where you missed some guys.There are a lot of guys who arent "household names" that make contributions on their respective teams.

[Yomar The Nifty]

I put the caveat in there right at the beginning about it being subjective etc etc and invite anyone who wants to do their own attempt to go right ahead.

I did a quick once over and I am not going to do anything more unless someone wants to pay me. (worth a shot)

But I will take the time to tell Twist (who is right that oline was probably the most overlooked position and it was because this was mopstly based on immediate name recognition) and any other joker who is too quick to dismiss the overall takeaway from this exercise why they are wrong to do so.

The important facts:

Over those 5 drafts, on average 256 picks made each year.

I only counted between 24-28 good picks a year, but I knew I undercounted and so rounded up to 30.

If you were to round up to 40, that would be pretty conservative I feel. Does that drastically change the take away here? Not really, it means that 1 out of every 6.4 selections are good ones...

if you want to get real extreme (since this is extremeskins afterall), you could say that for every pick I counted, I missed one and say that there are 50 good picks a year. Does that dramatically change things? It means that on average, each team will get one more good pick about every 2 drafts (32 goes into 50 1.56 times).