Clark Judge on skins

[luckydevil]

http://foxsports.lycos.com/content/view?contentId=617866

The Washington Redskins score 75 points in their first two preseason games — 29 more than they managed in four exhibitions a year ago — and jubilant Redskins fans want to know what it all means. I think I can answer that in one word.

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Nothing.

Yep, preseason results have as much impact on the regular season as the Tampa Bay Devil Rays have on the World Series, and I offer last year's San Diego Chargers as Exhibit A. They won three of their four preseason games, losing only to Arizona, then plunged confidently into the season.

They lost their last nine.

While that's an achievement, it can't surpass the Bolts' performance of the year before.

That team won all four preseason games — including a 31-7 laugher over Minnesota — then proceeded to drop its first 11 en route to a 1-15 finish. Minnesota won 11 and wound up in the NFC championship game.

I think you get my drift: Preseason games don't mean squat.

If they did, Mike Riley would still be in San Diego, Ryan Leaf would be in the Pro Bowl and there would be no question where the Chargers would be next. Try a new stadium, approved by a giddy electorate.

It'll be tough for Shane Matthews and the Redskins to repeat their preseason success during the regular season.

Gerry Broome /Associated Press

I bring this up not because of what didn't happen in San Diego but because of what's going on in Washington, where the Redskins have the attention of local travel agents booking round-trip airfares to San Diego for January. The temptation is to buy into what's happened the past two weeks and believe that Washington can be first in war, first in peace and first in the NFC East.

The Redskins are hotter than July in Great Falls, with Shane Matthews and Danny Wuerffel treating opponents the way they used to treat Vanderbilt. It's not supposed to be that way — Matthews and Wuerrfel were other people's rejects, remember? — but Spurrier's pulling down $5 million per, so he must know something others don't, right? Maybe.

"Spurrier's a great coach, and a great teacher," one head coach told me this summer. "But if he can win with those guys we all should get out of the business. I mean, can everyone be wrong?"

I guess we're about to find out. But not now. Not after two games that don't mean diddly. It's not popular to preach patience in professional sports, but it's imperative we practice it here before someone rushes off to anoint Spurrier the next Bill Walsh. The time's just not right, folks.

Preseason games serve to sort out depth charts, not standings. Let's face it: If they meant something why would coaches play their worst players in the fourth quarters when, presumably, games are decided. I think you know the answer. And so do coaches.

"The most important thing about the preseason," said San Francisco coach Steve Mariucci, " is to stay healthy and have your system in place."

And winning?

"Doesn't mean much," he said.

Case closed.

Over the last 15 years the combined preseason record of teams that went on to the Super Bowl is an underwhelming 71-61-1, and that includes the Buffalo Bills of the 1990s. They played in four consecutive Super Bowls despite a 6-12 preseason record during that span. It also includes the 2000 New York Giants, who suffered through a 0-4 preseason, then turned up in the Super Bowl.

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OK, so we've determined that we can't trust the results. But what about what Wuerffel and Matthews are doing? Well, let me pass along a story an NFL coach told me recently. He met with Leaf shortly before the then-Chargers' quarterback was to play the last preseason game of his rookie season. Leaf was feeling pretty good about himself then, and why not? The Chargers were 3-0, producing 101 points, and Leaf was an early nominee for rookie of the year.

"You know something?" Leaf said. "I think I've got this down. Three games, and I have a pretty good feel for what I'm going to see. I think I'm ready."

Uh-huh, and I think Mike Tyson is Humanitarian of the Year.

The point is no matter how good Wuerffel and Matthews look now, we won't know about them until they face Arizona on Sept. 8. Same goes for Spurrier. What looks good now doesn't always look good in September. But don't trust me. Trust the guys who played with and against Ryan Leaf.

[SonnyJ]

Here's what I take from this story:

This guy has absolutely nothing to write about. He had to produce 500 words on deadline and this was an easy target.

Honestly, does he think that any serious fan reading this piece feels that what is preseason is prologue? Aren't the same stories written year after year about preseason?

Did he really think this was earth-shattering insight? Or was he just being Mariucci's lap dog?:shootinth

[bulldog]

I don't see where Matthews is any greater of a question mark than several quarterbacks we now see in the pro bowl or Super Bowl.

Trent Dilfer? Washout after his first 6 years in Tampa.

Tom Brady? #6 draft choice said to have a questionable downfield arm before 2001.

Rich Gannon? Journeyman who was cut by Marty's Chiefs after having been a backup in Washington and Minnesota.

Other candidate starters for 2002 who are as big or bigger question marks:

Chris Weinke, Mike McMahon, Quincy Carter, Jim Miller, Gus Frerotte.

Other candidate starters who don't exactly set the world on fire:

Doug Flutie at age 40 in SD; Jeff Blake on his third team in four years; Rob Johnson at 30 getting chance #3,156 to be a starting qb in the NFL........................

There are few franchise and superior quarterbacks out there.

[GatorRob]

Originally posted by SonnyJ

Here's what I take from this story:

This guy has absolutely nothing to write about. He had to produce 500 words on deadline and this was an easy target.

Honestly, does he think that any serious fan reading this piece feels that what is preseason is prologue? Aren't the same stories written year after year about preseason?

Did he really think this was earth-shattering insight? Or was he just being Mariucci's lap dog?:shootinth

Sonny, you hit that one dead on the screws! Comparing DW and shane, two EXTREMELY cerebral QBs with Leaf, the anti-Wuerffel (incredible physical tools, ten-cent head) is laughable. One cannot pick a worse analogy. Check out Leaf's attitude after three games. Never in my wildest dreams would I imagine Wuerffel say anything remotely like that.:doh:

Judge is an idiot drinking the ESPN kool-aid. Danny, please place another order of blackened crow for Mr. Judge...:puke:

[The Sisko]

I know it'll probably get me flamed, but I tend to agree with him. Yes, it is obvious but pre-season doesn't mean squat. I will have a bit more confidence if DW and Shane can do the same thing against starters for a couple of more weeks, but even then, it's still pre-season.

Once again, just call me doubting Thomas. I'll believe it when I see it, and take my word for it folks, I want to believe.

P.S. I have seen enough to believe in SOS, just not the QB's (Ramsey excepted as I haven't seen him at all yet)

[NoCalMike]

As someone already stated, Trent Dilfer would be on this guys list as well 4 years ago. Now suddenly everyone is on his bandwagon as the next big thing. I am not saying Wuerfell is the answer, but you can't knock him for having two good performances in a row.

[SonnyJ]

Originally posted by Yusuf06

I know it'll probably get me flamed, but I tend to agree with him. Yes, it is obvious but pre-season doesn't mean squat. I will have a bit more confidence if DW and Shane can do the same thing against starters for a couple of more weeks, but even then, it's still pre-season.

Once again, just call me doubting Thomas. I'll believe it when I see it, and take my word for it folks, I want to believe.

P.S. I have seen enough to believe in SOS, just not the QB's (Ramsey excepted as I haven't seen him at all yet)

The point is that writing stuff like this is like writing that drunk driving is bad. Anyone who follows football knows that preseason is a poor predictor of regular season success.

The most galling part was the quote from St. Mariucci. If this guy was any further up Mooch's butt, he'd be inspecting the fillings on his teeth.

[OrangeSkin]

And yet last year at this time, this same donkey was probably saying that our inept performance in the preseason was a sign of things to come.

Any one of us could take this guy's job and do a better job. How do you become a sportswriter anyway? I tried to, I studied journalism at Syracuse, and my full intent was to become a sportswriter. How did I become a police writer? It sucks.

[Brave]

Yusef, I think most of us are still considering DW unproven, but it's impossible to not be impressed with what he's done with his playing time so far.

It's a relief that he can look so good and it does begin to make you believe that in this system, perhaps ONLY in this system, he can be a good QB.

Considering the expectations of him coming in it's easy to be excited by his good play and his grasp of the offense.

[RiggoDrill]

This guy's an idiot. Of course the overall RECORD in the preseason doesn't mean squat, but seeing how your starters fare overall, esp. in the third game, can tell you a few things.

The few things we know are:

--Spurrier's system has moved the ball against every NFL defensive scheme he has encountered thusfar. More elaborate schemes are coming, but his early success is encouraging.

--Spurrier doesn't need to run to set up the pass

--The team is enthusiastic.

--Many different receivers are getting a chance to make plays (the system doesn't require superstars)

Seeing DW against a talented starting D like the Steelers will tell us more, but I'll take this season's encouraging news anytime over last season's feeling of impending doom.

[Art]

I'm with RD here. The preseason is meaningless, but from it you can take several things from the team that can be symbols of what's to come. Last year we were awful in the preseason, but worse, we seemed without a concept of what we were doing as a team and we weren't playing, but thinking.

Now we seem on largely the same page. The team is having fun and though I haven't yet seen the Carolina game, it sounds like, from the quotes, the team is getting along and enjoying the game. Execution is important in the preseason even if wins and losses are not. We are executing in some phases and that is a strong sign that we're picking up the new scheme.

[Joey T]

Judge not, that ye be not judged:notworthy

This writer is just filling pages with ink, 'cause it's his job!

I like what Art posted a few days back about the Skins being more in step, on time, organized, etc.............

That's the biggest positive I can take out of this coaching staff, thus far.

The preseason? I don't think we have enough to go on yet. If DW has a good outing against the Steelers, that would be something to build on as far as the QB postion.

We still have questions on BOTH lines yet to be resolved. Until that happens, I shall be hesitant to call us playofff caliber. But, no harm in dreaming, huh?:laugh:

[Henry]

Sorry, the guy is absolutely right. Preseason means nothing. What little we can take from these games is positive, and that's nice, but we really do have to wait til September before we start celebrating the success of Spurrier's system.

[gbear]

Alright, the math nerd in me looks at his story a little differently. He says Superbowl teams had a combined record of 71-61-1.

Then he goes on to point out two teams that typify. Well, to me those sound like outliers. Especially since if you get rid of those two teams, suddenly the Superbowl teams record is a 65-45. SO while maybe the Superbowl teams don't win them all, they certainly don't go through preseason like we did last year either. Keep in mind, that translates to 9.5 wins in a 16 game preseason. Generally, that means they'd be playoff teams if their preseason record continued into the season (not too shabby).

IN any event, while the Superbowl may not depend on the preseason, I'd say teams looking as poorly as we did last year rarely make it. Just because there was one team that went from 0-4 in preseason to the superbowl, doesn't mean that is the way it usually happens.