seantaylor=god

5 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

Keim mentioned last week that Penix was coming as a contingency plan in case they get an offer they can't refuse, but he said that was very unlikely to occur.

 

Just covering their bases.

 

XXXXXXXXX

 

 

@seantaylor=god wrote:

 

 

Maybe Daniels was actually Sunday/Monday, Drake Monday/Tues, etc.

 

 

 

Schefter confirmed yesterday or today (IIRC) that Daniels was today and tommorrow.

 

 

Yeah then I really don’t understand it.

Just now, Dah-Dee said:

I'm so confused.

 

 

I think there is a bit of telephone going on. Maybe Daniels was actually Sunday/Monday, Drake Monday/Tues, etc. Initial report could have changed.

I think they all are getting the travel day/dinner and then a full day at facility.

1 hour ago, Conn said:

I understand the release is quick and the mechanics are tight and the footwork is square and the stroke is repeatable…but I just don’t like the ball coming out of Daniels’ hand. Every throw looks like he’s trying to feather in a touch pass over the top without ideal velocity. I’m probably not explaining it well but it’s not just an “arm strength” thing. It doesn’t matter whether I watch cut-ups, highlights, analyst breakdowns…I have a hard time doing what I’m trying to do, which is fall in love with Daniels at least a fraction of the amount I have with Maye—because I want to be happy/satisfied/hopeful either way. And intellectually, I’ve mostly gotten there. I nod along on paper with why I should be excited about Daniels if he’s the pick (while still allowing for the flaws I’m worried about to keep me grounded on it). But I just can’t get away from the fact that I don’t experience joy watching Daniels throw the ball. I just don’t.  

I feel the exact same way. 
 

For me, it’s watching the throws where the WR is settling down and just waiting for the ball. I’m cringing and imagining them being broken up.

But watching some of the all throws and run footage does give me some confidence as far as his ability to avoid big hits. Lots of scrambles where he picks up 5-10 and gets out of bounds. Also, I think his smooth, quick dump offs to RBs look like Kirk Cousins and makes me smile.

I think he can be an ultra efficient point guard who also can scramble for big gains when necessary.

But the arm is just not in Maye’s class. 
 

I’m fascinated by what type of scheme we run and how coaching staff and FO views these guys. 

4 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

My recollection was that Daniels was Mon-Tues

Maye was Tues-Wed

Then JJ entered the fold on some day, and I assumed it was Wednesday, but I don't think we've gotten confirmation on that.

So sounds like Daniels and Maye get their own "nights," but Daniels is the only one who gets his own "day" per se.

I thought it was Monday night Daniels (probably dinner, then work at facility next day), same for Maye (Tues night, Wednesday day ), and JJ would be Wednesday night, Thursday day). 

11 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Does this boost him back to the late 2nd-early 3rd?  One of my fav pass rushers in this draft

 

 

 

I think he would be a great fit in the situational pass rusher role we foresee Dante Fowler playing. Let him compete for snaps with Fowler with the hope he supplants him and can be an even better version (if not an everydown player)

also- that 3 cone is ****ing absurd. Almost identical to Von Miller.

He’s undersized at 6’2 248 but has 33 inch arms.

NFL bloodlines, production, and technique too.

34 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

Parsons is a better version of LaVar.  Him flaming out in Dallas after a short, brilliant career was so predictable that it almost feels like a scriptwriting mistake to actually have it happen.

 

Here is how the next part of the story goes: he lost his mentor, who was willing to design his entire defense around getting him favorable match ups and playmaking looks, and he takes a big step back with Mike Zimmer, who tries to make him play in a structured OLB role.  He hates it, becomes a malcontent, falls afoul of Jerry, then walks in free agency.

100%.
 

But I’m not sure how the story will end-

Takes a massive FA deal for a garbage team like the Panthers, fails there and has a career resurgence for the Commanders under DQ or signs with his hometown Eagles team for a discount and wins another SB.

This thread has jumped the shark and I fear it only will get worse lol

25 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

No, they aren't. That's just a perception based on what you're reading here and other places at this point in the draft process and as a team that will be picking a QB at #2. There's always going to be more scrutiny about negatives in that situation. All of these top guys have massive positives, but the negatives will always be focused on in this specific circumstance. 

 

This is a top notch QB class. Any of the top 3 would almost certainly be the #1 overall pick in most drafts.

100% Yes.
 

Also, people sometimes focus on the negatives and put off the decision as if there is some sort of real alternative.

Facts:

1. You need at least  above average QB play to win in today’s NFL. Run game/defense can only take you so far. Most SB winning teams had elite play from their QB. QB pay continues to rise to absurd levels because it’s easily the most important position by 2-3 times.

2. Rarely do above average/elite QBs make it to free agency/available in a trade, and if they do, the compensation required in contract, draft picks, or both is insane.

3. The NFL draft/UDFA is the only source for rookie QBs.

4. No guarantee a QB in the next year of the draft will be highly qualified or be available at your pick.

So, even knowing the first round QB you evaluate as a future above average/elite QB historically fails 50% of the time, there is no true alternative.

Evaluate as best you can ( particularly work ethic, character, and leadership) and hope for the best. If it fails, try again.

16 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

5 points Keim seems to be consistent on.

 

A.  He thinks it would be Daniels over Maye.  Reasoning isn't a leak about what Peters wants but he keeps asking coaches he knows including some he respects as offensive minds.  And its been 100% Daniels > Maye.  He gets the vibe its not neck and neck but a clear peg advantage for Daniels so he's guessing there must be something to that.  Standig has suggested something similar when he probes the same topic.  I know some here say this can't be true or coaches are purposely lying to Keim but that seems silly. Keim isn't stupid.  And he's asking coaches who aren't taking a QB.  He really highlights hard that some of these are really good offensive minds -- he doesn't say whom but am guessing Kyle is one of them.

 

B.  It's between Daniels and Maye with the team.

 

C.  McCarthy he doesn't think so but maybe in a trade down.

 

D.  The team likely has a preference already but hasn't made up their mind

 

E.  This isn't a report, no one is 100% sure what this team does

Yeah, this is my take as well. 
 

And I bet the coaches he talks to are Shanny folks. 
 

I think it really depends on the offense they want to run, there are schemes that Daniels would run better than Maye (even though I think Maye is better overall).

1 hour ago, Panninho said:

 

I know JP Finlay is a fan himself and he loves JD and wants us to draft him. But from a journalist, I expect more than that. First of all, he says here that he is not concerned because it's so hard to grade out QBs and then proceeds to tell everyone that JD is an elite prospect and to watch the tape concerning the PTS ratio. What is it now? Hard to project or not?

Secondly, the sample size of Jayden Daniels is so big that there is almost no room for noise. We know that pressure to sack ratio is a stable stat. Pressures in college are the same as in the NFL. It's also a stat that is more independent of your surroundings than other stats. Obviously some get pressured more, others less, some have better receivers others worse. But at the end of the day, we are talking about a ratio here. And over a large enough sample size, your true handling of these situations becomes clearer and clearer. JD is turning 23, is a 5 year starter in college, he has almost 1500 passing attempts. That means he probably played +/- 3000 snaps in college. How much more do you need in order to determine, that this is isn't going to magically change in the league (a thing that has also not happened for anyone else ever who had that issue). Why is it so hard to not aknowledge that this is a legitimate concern even if you love the player.

I think he’s parroting Keim, who talked about PTS rate on his podcast. He said unlike Fields (who had a high PTS rate due to holding the ball too long) Daniels PTS rate was a result of unblocked guys, etc.

He watched every sack he took and it wasn’t due to holding it too long ( according to Keim). 

Keim also said the scouts he talked to weren’t concerned about PTS sack.

Not sure I agree but Keim is pretty unbiased in general. 
 

I think it’s concerning for sure.

I like this breakdown of Maye- the beginning is all the positives and the end is the negatives. He shows some good examples of poor supporting cast ( WRs taking too long to get into routes) and oline issues. But the footwork stuff is definitely ugly. I love the “big game hunting” mindset. He would be a terrible fit if we were running the Shanahan offense but I think his mindset fits with what we are likely trying to do with Kingsbury’s offense.

9 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Of course the flip side is we just let the draft come to us. Using the 2's to move back a bit and add draft capital and then drafting OL where it fits more of the BPA approach could make some sense. I wonder if we have Donovan Smith identified as a post-draft signing to man the LT spot for a year, while whoever we end up drafting at OT competes for RT in that scenario.

I think we might go after DJ Humphries (wouldn’t help this year but for next year) or trade for Bolles.

I also think if we let the draft come to us, we may be able to grab one of the top OGs (if we missed the run on tackles). That would at least shore up the interior oline and we would have good depth there also. Plan on OTs being average and just deal with it. Keep going BPA- can’t fix it all.

Listened to a podcast and they thought since there aren’t many elite defensive players, and that the WR class is both great in quality and depth, all of the OTs we have been discussing go in the first.

Just thought it was interesting that others agree with the scenario some have speculated will occur and it would make sense to explore a trade up for an OT.

20 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

 

Camp arm I'm assuming

DQ link from Florida. He’s probably a really good dude.

Also- he hasn’t been awful based on stats. He’s just been injured constantly. So might be a nice backup who can show some stuff in practice, help the rookie develop,etc.

I know we’ve talked about Cooper Beebe as a OG option, not sure if we have talked about Cohen. 
 

He is Emory Hunt’s top rated OG.

1 minute ago, Conn said:

There comes a point where “super unique rankings based solely on tape” can become just sniffing your own farts. Matt Waldman is another guy who sometimes falls prey to this habit. It doesn’t mean they don’t put in the work. It doesn’t mean they’re hot take artists. But being contrarian has its positives and negatives. 

Yeah, he puts in the work on breadth (900 players including waaaay in the weeds but the depth is only 3 games. 
 

But it’s a great resource for looking up our late round guys and UDFAs.

I listen to Ross Tucker’s football podcast (which is great) and he often has on Emory Hunt, a draft analyst. Hunt is great, super in depth on all the positions and usually has some unique takes. I bought his draft guide, and his QB rankings are VERY unique. He’s at his best finding sleepers because he delves deep into all levels including HBCUs and Canada.
 

He bases it purely off tape- not combines or pro days. I was a little frustrated because he has the heights and weights wrong (had Maye and Daniels as 6’3)

I listened to him today and he had Fautanu from UW as his number one OT, slightly ahead of Joe Alt.

Anyway, 

QB:

1.Caleb

2.Daniels

3.Rattler

4.Jordan Travis

5.Drake Maye

6.Penix

7.McCarthy

25 minutes ago, mudhog said:

Yes, total guess on my part about what each value a pick is worth. I am not a bean counter as others are on this board, but just guessing, I think a high 2nd and low third would get you to 16th pic. Hell, it could take adding a 6th rounder as well. But to your point, I want a massive human being to be the LT even if he's a bit raw. Mims is just that, although he's more RT. And he can move that massive frame.
 

When it's all said and done...1.) I want the QB with the most upside. To me that's Maye. I don't care that he's raw at certain things, the natural talent is there. 2.) I want a LT to protect his blind side. I'd rather have a veteran for this, with his natural position being LT and not RT. But if not a vet, then a friggin Yeti that can move.

I would love the next OT we draft to not be a OG/OT tweener. I don’t care if he busts, I want to at least attempt getting a 6”5-6”7 dude with 36 inch arms. 

1 hour ago, Hailmary70 said:

Sorry guys, I don't follow college football so I was wondering if y'all could tell me

1. Which QB played in the toughest conference. Williams, May, Daniels or McCarthy??

2. Which QB played (if any) in a more Pro style offense?

 

Thank you

 

I don’t think these are particularly relevant as a predictor of NFL success but I will try and address it:

1. Probably Daniels  or JJ McCarthy 

2. I don’t even know what “pro style” means anymore. If you mean traditional offense that a team like the Chargers will run next year, JJ McCarthy. If you mean Shanahan/McVay west coast offense (like half the league runs) probably JJ also, maybe Daniels due to quick release. If you mean some sort of running option attack like Colts, Ravens, Eagles, etc. that would be Daniels. 
 

Do you mean “pro style” like what the Commanders are going to run? 
 

No one can say, because we don’t know what offense its going to be. Assuming it has air raid elements from Kliff Kingsbury (a college offense that became a pro offense now) Maye ran the air raid. But it may be a spread/run type offense like Brian Johnson ran at Florida with Trask, so that would work great with Daniels or JJ.

No one knows.

I would encourage you to think about better measurable predictors of NFL success. Intangibles, leadership, processing, reading defenses, arm strength, accuracy, pocket mobility, toughness, elusiveness, college production, mechanics, size/durability, running ability, breakout age,athleticism, etc. 

And we have been discussing the more important factors for months in the QB thread  if you want to go back and look. 

1 hour ago, FrFan said:

 

90% of board members will be apoplectic if he’s the pick lol.

Maye fans and Daniels fans will unite in outrage.

2 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

The thing with Mayes “bad” year is that it wasnt even that bad. His numbers are still quite good. And for all the hero ball stuff, he didnt throw very many interceptions and his turnover throw rate is super low despite also having a very high big play throw rate. Hell throw some WTF incometions, mainly because his degree of difficulty is higher than everyone else’s because of the crap supporting cast, but he doesnt really put the ball in harms way.

Yeah, that’s what’s crazy to me. Normally you wouldn’t have so many people calling someone “raw” or a “project” when he put up great numbers, then lost playmakers and oline and changed offenses and just played well. At his age! And the tools! 
 

It just feels like Josh Allen all over again.  

I appreciate the link to the all 22 breakdown of Jayden Daniels by Chase Daniels. It does have some nice examples of going through his reads. My issues I can’t shake with him (the build and long term health, the fact that it took him this long to put it together, the stacked team) That’s something the FO will need to feel comfortable with.

For folks who are negative on Maye, I would really encourage you to go watch 2022 highlights and compare it to 2023. He was insanely productive at a young age, and you can see how he performs with a better pocket. 

This year, you got to see what he does when the oline fails him (still makes plays and looks pretty good!) 

I truly think this is a historic class and all will be successful if they find the right team fit because their intangibles/work ethic appear top notch. 

Pretty concerning to me. 

Deleted, moved to QB thread.

Listened to an interesting breakdown of the Texas WRs. The Georgia transfer, (AD Mitchell) has all the tools to be a stud but seems like he has bad football character. They said if he wasn’t getting the ball on the play it was obvious as he left the huddle and that he gave minimal effort. He also pointed to an example of him juking out his defender and pointing at him like I got you, in the middle of the play. Cares more about his rep than team success. Actually said he wouldn’t draft him. Did say he didn’t talk to coaches and maybe he was coached to not wear himself out on plays he wasn’t getting it but thought that would be weird.

Contrasted that with Xavier Worthy, who ran a million go routes to clear out other players underneath rarely got the ball on them and still ran them 100%. Example of team player. Thought if he has better QB play would have caught more deep balls and he has guys beat.

Xavier Worthy concern was beating press but he can fly and is tough too.