Offensive efficiency: 3rd down

[wskin44]

Continuing my mantra that the Redskins only need to make reasonable small improvements to win 9 or 10 games this year:

The Redskins ranked 28th in the NFL in 3rd down efficiency at 31.7%. The NFL average was 37.6%. At that percentage the Redskins would have converted 13 more 3rd downs over the course of the season. Seems small, but to a team that was only outscored by it's oponents by 1.5 points per game, small improvements will make a difference.

So why be optimistic that the Skins can improve on 3rd down? Comparing 3rd down passing stats between Brunell and Ramsey shows that the improvement is already there just by playing Ramsey and by continuing to drill & tweak the offense.

Brunell was asked to convert 3rd downs by passing 86 times last year. Ramsey also was given 86 opportunities. Here is what happened:

Brunell either got a first down or a TD 30 times.

Ramsey got a first down or a TD 45 times.

Brunell threw 4 Int's.

Ramsey threw 3 Int's.

On 3rd down Brunell had a QB rating of 32.0

Ramsey had a QB rating of 65.8

On 3rd down Brunell completed 35.9%

Ramsey completed 54.5%

On 3rd down Brunell averaged 3.08 yds per attempt.

Ramsey averaged 5.17 yds.

An argument can be made that the whole offense improved in the second half of the season, but that just makes my case because this isn't a Ramsey vs. Brunell issue. The point is that it is reasonable to expect much better results this year simply by making small improvements to offensive efficiency.

[bubba9497]

Rod Gardner dropped at least 13 3rd down passes alone.

[zoony]

nice breakdown wskin

[wskin44]

Originally posted by bubba9497

Rod Gardner dropped at least 13 3rd down passes alone.

:laugh:

He also dropped several bags of peanuts from the second deck over the rail. I don't want him sitting in my row anymore. I only get the stuff I pay for half of the time. Either he leaves or I'm moving my seats off the rail.

[E-Dog Night]

Nice analysis!

[Califan007 The Constipated]

It's nice reading threads that acknowledge the realistic improvements that the Skins offense achieved over the last five games or so...you should do a breakdown of time of possession over that timespan as well...I seem to remember the Skins offense held the ball for something like an average of 33 minutes, maybe more...

[Shotgunner]

Good post! Just like in life the difference between winning and losing is sometimes very small. Our offensive woes will be solved by picking up the blitz and converting those 3rd downs. This is not an easy task and will be the deciding factor in a successful 05.:notworthy

[halter91]

An argument can be made that the whole offense improved in the second half of the season, but that just makes my case because this isn't a Ramsey vs. Brunell issue. The point is that it is reasonable to expect much better results this year simply by making small improvements to offensive efficiency.

You are right the whole offense did improve in the 2nd half, because of the QB change. No doubt about it. I would like to see Portis numbers with Brunell and Ramsey, Did Clinton rush better when Patrick was in there??

Nice post by the way.

[wskin44]

For the season the Redskins had 31:19 time of possession. They were ranked #8 in the league. This is just another testament to the strength of the defense. Lot's of 3 downs and punt.

Skins offense ranked 30th with 275 yards per game. They ranked 27th with only 17 first downs per game. Time of possession was due to defense.

[Fifty Gut]

Wow, I'm starting to relive some of my nightmares from last year...

3rd down, Brunell steps back, throws... awwww, pass was too short on a quick slant that woulda resulted in a 1st down plus some. :mad:

[Califan007 The Constipated]

Originally posted by wskin44

For the season the Redskins had 31:19 time of possession. They were ranked #8 in the league. This is just another testament to the strength of the defense. Lot's of 3 downs and punt.

Skins offense ranked 30th with 275 yards per game. They ranked 27th with only 17 first downs per game. Time of possession was due to defense.

Not quite...because to give the defense sole credit for time of possession would be to say that the Skins offense didn't have a lot of three-and-outs, which unfortunately everyone of us knows they had almost nothing but for the first half of the season.

My main thought, though, was the consistency of controlling the ball and the clock...did the offense improve in this regard as the season went on and once Ramsey began to master Gibbs' scheme...

So, for comparison's sake:

Time Of Possession-

First 11 games: 30.00 minutes

Last five games: 33.56 minutes

Games With TOP under 30 Minutes-

First 11 games: 5 (45% of games)

Last five games: 1 (20% of games)

Games with TOP right around 30:00 minutes-

First 11 games: 4

Last five games: 0

When the offense is unable to take advantage of the defense's ability to limit the time of possession of the opponent, then the TOP tends to come out almost a wash, with both teams hovering around the 30 minute mark. With that in mind, consider this stat:

Total Games With A TOP Either At Or Below The 30:00 Mark-

First 11 games: 8 games (73%)

Last 5 games: 1 (20%)

Obviously, the defense didn't suddenly become even MORE dominant in the last 5 games of the season...so what would have effected the Skins TOP advantage to improve so dramatically? The offense.

The second Dallas game was the only game in which the TOP was below 30 minutes (an abysmal 27:18 minutes). If you take away that game, the Redskins TOP averaged a whopping 35:15 minutes per game. That's a sign of both the defense limiting opposing teams' offenses AND the Skins own offense generating time-consuming drives and limiting their own 3-and-outs. We saw that improvement take place over the last five games of the season, after Ramsey was given starter status and made it thru two hard weeks of facing the Eagles and the Steelers right off the bat.

The improvements were there to be seen...and they're realistic.

[jrockster21]

Originally posted by halter91

You are right the whole offense did improve in the 2nd half, because of the QB change. No doubt about it. I would like to see Portis numbers with Brunell and Ramsey, Did Clinton rush better when Patrick was in there??

Nice post by the way.

I know there was a quote from Portis that said when they ran the zone-blocking schemes last season he averaged 5 yards per carry, compared to his 3.8 or something for the season. So hopefully that trend will continue into this season, when Gibbs will be running much more zone-blocking schemes. When in Rome....

[jrockster21]

Originally posted by Califan007

Not quite...because to give the defense sole credit for time of possession would be to say that the Skins offense didn't have a lot of three-and-outs, which unfortunately everyone of us knows they had almost nothing but for the first half of the season.

My main thought, though, was the consistency of controlling the ball and the clock...did the offense improve in this regard as the season went on and once Ramsey began to master Gibbs' scheme...

So, for comparison's sake:

Time Of Possession-

First 11 games: 30.00 minutes

Last five games: 33.56 minutes

Games With TOP under 30 Minutes-

First 11 games: 5 (45% of games)

Last five games: 1 (20% of games)

Games with TOP right around 30:00 minutes-

First 11 games: 4

Last five games: 0

When the offense is unable to take advantage of the defense's ability to limit the time of possession of the opponent, then the TOP tends to come out almost a wash, with both teams hovering around the 30 minute mark. With that in mind, consider this stat:

Total Games With A TOP Either At Or Below The 30:00 Mark-

First 11 games: 8 games (73%)

Last 5 games: 1 (20%)

Obviously, the defense didn't suddenly become even MORE dominant in the last 5 games of the season...so what would have effected the Skins TOP advantage to improve so dramatically? The offense.

The second Dallas game was the only game in which the TOP was below 30 minutes (an abysmal 27:18 minutes). If you take away that game, the Redskins TOP averaged a whopping 35:15 minutes per game. That's a sign of both the defense limiting opposing teams' offenses AND the Skins own offense generating time-consuming drives and limiting their own 3-and-outs. We saw that improvement take place over the last five games of the season, after Ramsey was given starter status and made it thru two hard weeks of facing the Eagles and the Steelers right off the bat.

The improvements were there to be seen...and they're realistic.

I think its a pretty obvious conclusion that can be drawn from Wskins' analysis; if the offense is converting more 3rd downs, then time of possesion will increase, assuming of course the defense remained a constant, which I'm sure we all know it did

[bubba9497]

The changes made on Offense this off season are directly related to 3rd down eff. They bostered their OL with Rasbach, improve pass protection, and short yardage.... Signed Speedy receivers with good hands for 3 rd and long, drafted some big backs to block or move the pile on 3rd and short and goal line.

Many times last season the Offense stopped themselves in drives not the other teams defense.

Strong D and a offense that will control the clock, and score at the end of a long drive win win many many many ball games

[Califan007 The Constipated]

Originally posted by jrockster77

I think its a pretty obvious conclusion that can be drawn from Wskins' analysis; if the offense is converting more 3rd downs, then time of possesion will increase, assuming of course the defense remained a constant, which I'm sure we all know it did

I agree...it's just that he then said that the TOP was "due to the defense", which I didn't quite agree with (and I'm guessing you don't, either...lol).

[jrockster21]

Originally posted by Califan007

I agree...it's just that he then said that the TOP was "due to the defense", which I didn't quite agree with (and I'm guessing you don't, either...lol).

Sorry....re-read my post; didn't mean to come off as a d!ck

I agree with your analysis, I just thought it was funny that you went through all the trouble when it was (I thought) a fairly obvious conclusion

Good work though! Now it is proven definitively!

[Califan007 The Constipated]

Originally posted by jrockster77

Sorry....re-read my post; didn't mean to come off as a d!ck

I agree with your analysis, I just thought it was funny that you went through all the trouble when it was (I thought) a fairly obvious conclusion

Good work though! Now it is proven definitively!

LoL...no problems, and you didn't come off as a dick to me, to be honest.

I just added the TOP comparisons to futher illustrate what the topic of this thread was about...or rather, to further illustrate the underlying point of wskin44's threads as of late: that, regardless of what the sports media (and some Skins fans) think, the offense did not need some major overhaul this offseason...it really was improving significantly over the last 5-6 games in very real ways. wskin44's threads have been showing this rather well...I just added an extra fork to the pie..lol :thumbsup:

[wskin44]

It's clear that the offense improved in the post Brunell era and our TOP improved in the second half of the season, as did our 3rd down conversions.

When I said that our TOP success was due to the defense I am comparing our TOP to the rest of the league for the whole season. The fact that we were so high can only be credited to the defense because we were so low in almost every offensive category compared to the rest of the league. We got better as the season went on, but overall we still were near the bottom.

Another way of looking at it is the # plays. Our offense ran 1023 plays, 9th highest in the league. But our yards per play was only 4.3, 30th in the league.

Our defense ran 974 plays, 10th lowest in league. The D gave up 4.4 yards per play, second best in the league (Buffalo was #1). It is amazing that our defense ran so few plays since the offense was so inept, but it was the low yds per play allowed that kept putting the offense back onto the field.

Everyone knows that our D carried us. The reality that the offense only needs to make small improvements and that it is reasonable to think that they can is borne out by the Ramsey/Brunell comparisons and 1st 11 games vs last 5 comparisons.

Here's another one: For the season Ramsey had 1.1 yard more per passing attempt than Brunell. Since Ramsey played roughly half the season that should translate into about a half yard more per attempt in 2005.

Portis averaged 3.8 yards per carry, but averaged 5.5 both seasons in Denver. There is no reason to think that Portis can't add a half yard to his average in 2005.

With a half yard improvement in the passing attack (which Ramsey has already done) and a half yard improvement in the rushing average (not unreasonable) the Skins would move from 4.3 to 5.3 yards per offensive play. That would move them from 30th to 15th in the league in yards per play.

Once again, none of this is looking through rose colored glasses, it's all very realistic. I truly believe that with Gibb's attention to detail, he is very aware of these numbers and is focused on getting them to happen.

[Larry]

The Redskins ranked 28th in the NFL in 3rd down efficiency at 31.7%. The NFL average was 37.6%. At that percentage the Redskins would have converted 13 more 3rd downs over the course of the season. Seems small, but to a team that was only outscored by it's oponents by 1.5 points per game, small improvements will make a difference.

Not quite true. Improving third-down percentage would've made even more difference than that, because each successfull third down conversion also creates the possibility of another third down attempt.

(If we'd converted more, we would've had more attempts.)

[wskin44]

Originally posted by Larry

Not quite true. Improving third-down percentage would've made even more difference than that, because each successfull third down conversion also creates the possibility of another third down attempt.

(If we'd converted more, we would've had more attempts.)

:laugh: I actually knew that as I wrote it believe it or not. I just figured that no one here would notice. Good catch Larry.

If our 3rd down % increased to the league average it would also hold true for the increased number of 3rd down attempts and the percentage would hold.

[wskin44]

Originally posted by Califan007

I just added an extra fork to the pie..lol :thumbsup:

mmmmmmmm pie! It must be time for lunch.

[D Al]

If Patrick can manage to stay away from holding the ball too long, the offense can be much more effective. I do agree with your initial assesment. I'd like to add reduction in penalties to the list.

If we can cut down offensive penalties by two per game. We move toward winning 9 to 10 games this season.

Fewer Penalties

+

Third Down efficiency

=

Playoffs

[jschlesi]

Considering how much we ran the ball even with our pitiful 3 and outs we should have a higher time of possession