QB success factors: IQ as a predictor

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

An adjacent thread asks which rookie QB will be the most successful in 5 years. I've been wondering about this as well, and also about the current Redskin QBs, noteworthy busts like Shuler and Leaf, and the recent trend toward mobile QBs whose running skills are at least as good as their passing skills.

I was also recalling how well the Redskins shut down McNabb last year when they shadowed him with La Var. Forced to sit in the pocket, McNabb stunk out the joint.

I'm beginning to think that the recent trend toward mobile QBs is a red herring, spurred on maybe by Steve Young (who happened to be mobile and a great runner, but was a great QB anyway) and the moderate success of a number of mobile QBs since. Michael Vick probably is the pinnacle of the current trend.

Looking at the QB position, it seems that the number 1 job is to make the right decision (read the defense, choose a receiver, pass the ball, throw it away, or tuck the ball if a sack is unavoidable), followed by accuracy (assuming at least average arm strength), followed by pocket smarts (to sense and dodge the rush), followed by arm strength (to make the long flies and out passes), followed FINALLY by running ability if the receivers are covered or the protection breaks down. If you have a terrific OL and a QB with good pocket smarts, running ability is arguably very unimportant. (Somewhere in the list you need to throw in intangibles like leadership and toughness, the former to inspire other players to play well, and the latter so the QB stays focused on his job and not on preventing / recovering from punishment.)

Then we see Michael Vick, who everyone loves based on his running ability. When was the last time an option offense won in the NFL? It seems insane to take what is arguably the QB's least important skill and make it the most important quality.

I bring all this up because Patrick Ramsey seems to have an exceptional IQ, together with all the other qualities you want to see *except* running ability.

As for his IQ, it's been reported that he scored either 32 or 34 on the Wonderlic test (compared to 24 for Carr and 32 for Harrington). My guess is that Shuler and Leaf scored comparatively poorly on the Wonderlic, and that their main assets (arm strength) blinded scouts to their weakness at the most important quality.

According to Paul Zimmerman's "The New Thinking man's Guide to Pro Football," the following are average NFL Wonderlic scores:

Offensive tackles: 26

Centers: 25

Quarterbacks: 24

Guards: 23

Tight Ends: 22

Safeties: 19

Middle linebackers: 19

Cornerbacks: 18

Wide receivers: 17

Fullbacks: 17

Halfbacks: 16

The average scores in other professions look like this:

Chemist: 31

Programmer: 29

Newswriter: 26

Sales: 24

Bank teller: 22

Clerical Worker: 21

Security Guard: 17

Warehouse: 15

(Source: http://espn.go.com/page2/s/closer/020228.html)

Spurrier's system seems to demand more than ever that the QB be smart as hell. (It helps if the receivers are smart, too, since they need to make the same defense reads as the QB, and adjust their routes consistently.) I feel *very* good about Ramsey's intelligence and dedication to learning (3.5 GPA, double-major in accounting/finance, graduated early), and I like that he has all the tools except running ability. Oddly, lack of running ability may *increase* his effectiveness as a pure QB, since running isn't a viable option to distract him. (This was a problem for Theismann earlier in his career -- he thought of himself as being a gifted scrambler, which cut down his focus on making good QB decisions.)

Under Spurrier, I think Ramsey has an excellent chance to emerge as the next great young QB. He'll need better receivers and a solid, stable line to be successful, but he'll get all that eventually. I look forward to his success.

Geoff

[Guest Goatroper]

If you wanted a QB with smarts, you shoulda got Major Applewhite.

Too late now. New England signed him as a FA.

[Tommy-the-Greek]

Nice post Atlanta, I have been thinking about his wonderlic score all day. I wonder what the other starting qb's in the league scored,and what did Sage score?

[Art]

Goat,

I think the goal was to have intelligent, but also a guy with some physical ability. With Ramsey, we have a quarterback who's about twice as intelligent as most, and, say, Carter as an example, yet, who throws the ball beautifully at the same time. It's quite an advantage really.

[Riggo-toni]

You've overlooked one VERY important quality - quickness of release. Granted it goes somewhat hand in hand w/ intelligence, but not entirely. Warner is so dangerous because he has the quickest release in the NFL. Blitz him and die, because he gets rid of the ball too fast. This was why Belichik chose instead to play a ton of DBs and let him have time in the pocket. This is also why an intelligent athletic guy like Rob Johnson just plain sucks. He holds onto the ball too long.

I still say we got the best QB in the draft. Carr was Casserly's pick. Think about that. In all the time he was the Skins GM, every single 1st rounder was a BUST until Champ Bailey, except for maybe Westbrook. Tom Carter, Andre Johnson, Desmond Howard (more Gibbs' pick), Heath Shuler (in fairness, Casserly wanted Dilfer), just to name a few.

[Barney B]

The Wonderlic is probably over-rated, just as most IQ scores are probably over-rated as indicators of true innate cognitive ability.

Karl Mecklenberg, who posted the highest IQ in the league while a player, said the test was more indicative of education than of intelligence.

Dan Marino's Wonderlic was not impressive. Yet he was an expert at reading defenses and making snap decisions. And of course, the quick release didn't hurt him any.

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

Originally posted by The Chief

The Wonderlic is probably over-rated, just as most IQ scores are probably over-rated as indicators of true innate cognitive ability.

Karl Mecklenberg, who posted the highest IQ in the league while a player, said the test was more indicative of education than of intelligence.

Dan Marino's Wonderlic was not impressive. Yet he was an expert at reading defenses and making snap decisions. And of course, the quick release didn't hurt him any.

I would say the Wonderlic doesn't by itself define decision-making ability in a QB. However, it's probably a good tool for defining a QB's ability to master and internalize a complex playbook, absorb upcoming defensive schemes, and make defensive reads prior to the snap.

What a QB does with that intelligence is something different. A stubborn QB might force throws into coverage, or go deep when the primary receiver is on a curl. These are criticisms being lobbed against Bledsoe, for example.

A quick release is a combination of intelligence (snap decisions) and a type of arm strength. It's possible to be dumb with a quick release. Marino may be a hall of famer, but I saw him make his share of dumb decisions -- typically throwing into coverage. Sure, the throws were on target, but sometimes it's just dumb to rocket a ball 40 yards into double coverage. I always figured this is why he never won a Super Bowl, though he also suffered from the Elway syndrome of a somewhat weak supporting cast. (Elway and Marino were extremely similar QBs, with similar strengths and weaknesses, excepting Elway's running ability.)

In terms of character, you want to see a QB who's both tough and humble -- tough enough to lead by example and to survive the hits, and humble enough to realize he doesn't have to be the obvious hero on every play. Sometimes the right thing to do is just throw the ball away. For proper execution of the offense -- and to sustain your coach's confidence in you -- it's important to throw to the primary receiver when he's open, even if you think you've got a shot at the third receiver on the fly route.

It's just a hunch, but it seems like Ramsey has these qualities of high IQ, toughness and humility. You don't see a lot of accounting majors being accused of being self-centered egotists.

Geoff

P.S. Mecklenberg was just being humble. Beyond a certain level of education (in which test-taking skills are learned), properly designed IQ tests certainly test intelligence more than education. The main valid criticisms of IQ tests is that they rarely test all varieties of intelligence, don't account in a single score for disproportionate intelligence distribution (it's possible to be exceptional in some areas and dumb in others), and intelligence *by itself* is not a reliable indicator of career / academic success.

[Romberjo]

I agree that Wonderlic scores are overrated as saying much of anything about a player's potential -- at least once you weed out the single-digit-cowboys-fan types. (Oh, that's what "9inarow" means; now I get it.)

I think Ramsey's high score may mean something, though, about the rapidity w/ which he can pick up the system, which is not meaningless, given our roster. For what it's worth, Sage is quite sage as well (as was Stanfordian Husak).

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

I did a Google search of web pages and newsgroups and came up with a list of supposed Wonderlic scores for some current and past QBs. I say "supposed" because sometimes different scores for the same player were reported in different places, and rarely was a source documented for the score. Where there were different scores reported, I report both here.

A score of 20 equates to an IQ of 100. NFL average for all positions is 19. Basic literacy is a 10.

Redskin QBs:

Patrick Ramsey 34/32

Sage Rosenfels 32

Heath Shuler 13

Jeff George 10

Todd Husak 39

Some notable top QBs:

Steve Young 33

Tom Brady 33

John Elway 30

Drew Bledsoe "low 30s"

Troy Aikman 29

Brett Favre 22/27

Dan Marino 16/22

Phil Simms 11

Some notable "mobile" QBs:

Daunte Culpepper 21

Michael Vick 20

Steve McNair 19/23

Randall Cunningham 15

Akili Smith 12/16

Kordell Stewart 9

Some pretty good QBs:

Trent Dilfer 22

Vinny Testeverde 18

Jeff Blake 17

It's hard to generalize completely from this list, but some patterns emerge:

1. The "mobile" QBs range from awful (Kordell) to mediocre at best(Culpepper).

2. The top QBs generally score very high, but Brett Favre is only average for a QB, Marino a bit below average, and Simms stunk.

3. Recent Redskin muscle-arm busts (Jeff George, Heath Shuler) are as dumb as anvils.

4. Recent Stanford grad and Redskin bust Todd Husak outscored everyone else on the list.

5. Patrick Ramsey and Sage Rosenfels scored about the same, in the Steve Young and Tom Brady range.

My bottom-line conclusion: top QBs generally have top scores, but players with an exceptional will to win and exceptional passing arm or accuracy (Favre, Marino, Simms) can overcome lower scores. Intelligence trumps mobility and pure arm strength as a predictor of success, but intelligence alone can't overcome an overall lack of physical skill (Husak), and no top QB would be confused with a genius (scores in the upper 40s).

Geoff

[indyskinsfan]

Thanks. Ramsey is also more comparable to Simms in ability, but from the little I saw, I would say his determination is more like Bob Griese (60's-70's), because his demeanor in tight situations.

Griese was a good student of the game and worked like Manning to keep his job. I see Ramsey as this kind of QB. I don't see Banks, George, Guss, or Heath in this guy.

[Dr. D]

RE: quick release of WARNER

the reason he has a quick relase is the fact he IS a quick desicion maker. To make quick (and the correct!) decision one must be smart. The quicker the smarter....

Warner is one smart football player.

[fansince62]

atlanta....good post....however, going back 30 years, i recall the skins always having the greatest trouble with scrambling QBs. guys like flutie - who have average arm strength, etc - were difficult to contain. staubach routinely ate our lunch at key moments. there is a constant thread of our defenses being reschemed to account for scrambling. the counter is that these guys tend to get injured (cunningham). in the event, i don't think you can argue the point that a scrambler who can also throw presents a greater dilemma for the defense, requires abnormal departures from normal defensive schemes (e.g., dedicating Lavar to tracking McNabb), can wear down a defense more quickly, can deflate momentum/morale very quickly with broken play skills.

[joe]

First of all, this is one of the better threads that I have read in a long time.

Perhaps one thing that the wonderlic predicts is how long it will take a Qb to become successful. As I recall, both Simms and Stewart took several years longer than anticipated to make their impact in the league. Marino, of course, would be the exception that proves the rule. But he was an exception to most things.

And I would not call Husak a bust yet. I beleive that he has caught on with Denver. He was not a bad QB, just not Marty's guy. It had to be tough to try to go from Norv's system to Marty's.

[SonnyJ]

62,

I think the special defenses to spy on or keep a mobile QB in the pocket, a la McNabb and Cunningham, are possible because these QBs show less proficiency at breaking down a defense with their arms than they do with their legs.

The absolutely deadly QBs are the ones who can kill you either way, such as Young, Elway, and Favre. You can't play spy games on these guys because they will just chew up a 10 man defense. The best defense against these guys is actually a plain vanilla, straight-up defense, provided you have the players to pull it off. A quick up-the-middle rush helps a lot, too (but doesn't it always?).

As far as QB IQ goes, my guess is that the reason a guy like Simms (who doesn't seem that stupid) or Marino make it big, as opposed to a supposed borderline genius such as Husak (granted, jury still out), is some special undefinable quality. It's probably why can't miss prospects such as George do miss. There's just a certain innate confidence a guy either has or doesn't that makes him believe he will prevail, and in turn that rubs off on his teammates and raises their level of play. It's a combination of physical skills, intelligence, toughness, leadership ("overrated"), etc.

In sum, there are obviously a great many characteristics that go into being a successful NFL QB. But doubt is not an option. Which, when you think about it, would tend to be a strike against more "intelligent" QBs. The smarter one is, the more one realizes what one doesn't know.

[redman]

The Wonderlic - alone - is a poor predictor for NFL success at any position. It's merely one tool to use. Ignoring all other factors, QB with a good Wonderlic may have a slightly above average chance of success in the NFL, but that's it. Perhaps it means that that QB is able to learn a bigger playbook, and/or is able to learn it faster.

The problem is that the Wonderlic can't measure what I'll call "game sense". Every great QB has it, including guys at both ends of the Wonderlic spectrum. Steve Young had it. Phil Simms had it. Marino, Elway and Montana had it. It's an instinct that is unmeasurable and untestable . . . except in a football game.

[SPare]

The problem with the Wonderlic is the same problem as with most standardized tests. They are only an indicator, and not a predictor.

The other issue is that there are people who just do well on standardized tests (I happen to be one of them). I would not claim to be a genius on the average day, but my SAT and GMAT scores would indicate that I am.

There's still the problem with the application of the intelligence that the test would indicate. Again, using myself as the example, I do well on the test, but something that I lack is that ability to make the split second decision when presented with a load of real life data. In essence, I over-analyze.

To put this in perspective, think of a guy who scores well on the test but still holds the ball in the pocket too long. He knows what he has to do, but it's too late to do him any good.

right Todd?

[bulldog]

it's when intelligence AND talent meet that we have something.

Ramsey is intelligent and he has an NFL downfield arm. That is more than half the battle.

the rest of it is his mental toughness, the ability to make mistakes, learn from them amid the pressure of playing QB in the NFL.

that is something we won't know until we see him under fire.

Shuler lacked the intelligence to pick up Norv's system quickly, but he also lacked field presence.

He was easily intimidated and pressured. He forgot calls between the huddle and getting set at the line. He also had the habit of handing the ball off to the backs too low, causing fumbled exchanges in the backfield.

Hopefully with Ramsey those problems won't be manifest.

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

Originally posted by redman

The Wonderlic - alone - is a poor predictor for NFL success at any position. It's merely one tool to use. Ignoring all other factors, QB with a good Wonderlic may have a slightly above average chance of success in the NFL, but that's it. Perhaps it means that that QB is able to learn a bigger playbook, and/or is able to learn it faster.

The problem is that the Wonderlic can't measure what I'll call "game sense". Every great QB has it, including guys at both ends of the Wonderlic spectrum. Steve Young had it. Phil Simms had it. Marino, Elway and Montana had it. It's an instinct that is unmeasurable and untestable . . . except in a football game.

Nice post, redman. I agree with most of your comments, though I never suggested that the Wonderlic was very useful outside the QB position.

The "game sense" you mention is something I've thought of as a "will to win" or the Bruce Willis "Die Hard" mentality. It's what Kirk was referring to in Star Trek II (Wrath of Khan) when he said he didn't believe in the no-win scenario (an academy exercise to test decision-making, in which Kirk as a cadet famously cheated the system by reprogramming the simulator). (Excuse the Trek reference.) Some people simply have an almost superhuman drive to succeed in the face of long odds, physical or mental punishment, financial ruin, etc. And you're right: only game situations bring out these qualities.

"Will to win" is different from "will to be the hero". This is my problem with some of the current mobile QBs, Theismann early in his career, Jeff George, etc. I really think Jeff George has a very simple image of himself: the guy who wins the game by rifling long passes. He's not focused precisely on winning, but on being the hero. With the right receivers (Minnesota), George can succeed, but he's fundamentally a selfish player whose heart isn't into completing easy short passes.

The best pass I saw all last year by the Skins was in a short appearance by Kent Graham (not the Denver game, where he also starred). The play was third and long -- maybe 3rd and 9 -- in an absolutely critical situation. Graham's protection broke down quickly, and the primary receivers were covered. While being hauled down to the ground from his right, Graham took the ball with his left hand and shovel-passed it to a back through a gap in the line, getting the first down.

On the basis of that play alone, Graham should have won the starting job from Banks. Because Graham didn't get the starting job, even after the Denver game, Marty deserved to be fired. All the other reasons were icing on the cake for me.

Geoff

[Golgo-13]

Anybody have any idea what Warner's score was?

[SonnyJ]

Originally posted by Atlanta Skins Fan

The best pass I saw all last year by the Skins was in a short appearance by Kent Graham (not the Denver game, where he also starred). The play was third and long -- maybe 3rd and 9 -- in an absolutely critical situation. Graham's protection broke down quickly, and the primary receivers were covered. While being hauled down to the ground from his right, Graham took the ball with his left hand and shovel-passed it to a back through a gap in the line, getting the first down.

On the basis of that play alone, Graham should have won the starting job from Banks. Because Graham didn't get the starting job, even after the Denver game, Marty deserved to be fired. All the other reasons were icing on the cake for me.

Geoff

I think most here would agree with you that Marty's failure to bench Banks and play Graham (no world-beater himself) was egregious. It was painfully clear that just a few plays from the QB position would have written a different story to the season, and Banks simply could not provide those plays. Yet Marty stubbornly refused to switch horses.

But I can't fault Marty for not starting Graham in the next game after he threw that pass. Graham threw the pass to Carter in the last game of the season against the Cardinals.

And, as we all know, Marty won't be here for the team's next game.:cool:

[9inarow]

IQ is really gonna help when LaRoi Glover piledrives Ramsey head-first into the concrete.

What a beautiful thought ...

Eddie

[redman]

There's more to game sense in my book. In this context, it's the ability to not panic amidst the chaotic situations that NFL QB's find themselves in. It's one thing to know the playbook and to be able to execute the perfect throw to the perfect spot and the right WR on the practice field where there are fewer surprises, lower pressure, and far less contact. There's something to be said for that, but we'll all agree that the game demands far more.

It's the QB that can do that under live fire, and in particular it's the QB who can ad lib under live fire and even adjust the scheme to fit his needs on the fly - Favre is a great example of this - who is the elite player in the league. And that's something that a standardized test like the Wonderlic simply can't measure.