How trading out of one draft pick(s) can shape a team

[daveakl]

I've long wondered what would happen if a team were to skip a draft by trading all their picks in year x for more picks the following year.  Taking that idea the next step, only holding on to half of those picks in year 2 and continuing to flip picks forward so that they always had an extra 2,3,4 essentially for the rest of their days. (Maybe the Browns will come close to doing this)

 

I thought what Scot did yesterday was interesting for long term building and I wanted to take a look at how moving out of the 4th and trading away the 2nd 5th yesterday could look over the next 5 years.

 

Lets assume the Redskins would have taken Billings in the 4th. Instead they were able to get a 4th in 2017 and a 5th in 2017.  That's in addition to the 6th in 2017 from the Texans.  

 

The assumption is that a pick is worth one round plus in the following year (a 5th in 2016 = a 4th in 2017).

 

Stayed instead of traded

2016 = Billings

 

Traded as we did:

2016 = no 4th

2017 = 4th, 5th (traded to 2018 and not used)

2018 = 3rd, 4th, (traded to 2019 and not used)

2019 = 2nd, 3rd (traded to 2020 and not used)

2020= 1st, 2nd

 

So looking down the road would having Billings next season be better/worse then having an extra 1st and 2nd in 2020?

 

Another interesting part to think about is the ability to trade comp picks next year.  Using the http://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.aspchart one could envision the following trade next year:

 

4th from the Jets: Pick 113, value 68 points

3rd from team X in 2018: Pick 98 (value 39 points) + 5th from team x in 2017: Pick 154 (value 21.4 points)

 

Comp picks already extend the rounds significantly and enabling them to be traded opens up a flood of available late round picks that hold value.

 

With a trade like above you then would have:

 

2016 = no 4th

2017 = 4th, 5th, 5th (4th and 5th traded to 2017, second 5th used)

2018 = 3rd, 4th, 

2019 = 2nd, 3rd

2020= 1st, 2nd

 

Trades like that allow Scot to keep his goal of 10+ picks per year while also allowing him to improve the round of future picks. (thinking that he executes a trade like this with the other 5th and moves down with a 1,2, or 3 like he did this year)

 

Now all of this is contingent on the Redskins keeping Scot around as the GM but which would you rather bet on:

 

Billings as a 4th rounder becoming a stud player or Scot as a GM getting the chance to draft more players in higher and higher rounds.

[acuratl1984]

Ideally those are good, however that's not what happened yesterday for us...

We traded 21 to Houston for 22 basically got a free 17/6th

We traded our 4th to Jets for 16/5th 17/5th (I felt we lost this trade)

We traded our 5th to Saints for a 17/5th, this trade was essentially our 5th for their 6th round straight up.... (Next year 5th = this year 6th)

[sportjunkie07]

I'm misunderstanding the OP a bit.

I'm pretty sure a 5th in 16' is considered as valuable as a 6th in 17', not a 4th in 17'. Opportunity cost makes future picks not quite as valuable, not more valuable.

Anyways, I think Scot was seeing that next year we have a lot of major contracts coming into play (specifically reed, cousins, and norman). I think he wants to have extra picks next year to flush the team with inexpensive rookies to allow for the aforementioned contracts. Leverage.

Also he knew who was on his big board and didn't have any major concern with missing out on someone at our trade points.

[acuratl1984]

Don't think that's the case, I remember that Pats trading a 3rd for a 2nd or a 4th for a 3rd many times the last few years. Let me try to dig up those trades

 

 

Pat's 3rd rounder in 2010.

 

#89: New England → Carolina (D). New England traded this selection to Carolina for a 2011 second-round selection.^{[source 31]}

 

^{TLDR: Pats gets: 2011 2nd}

        Car gets: 2010 3rd

 

^{Another Example 2010 Draft as well}

 

^{#44: Jacksonville → New England (PD). Jacksonville traded this selection and a 2009 seventh-round selection (232nd overall; New England selected Julian Edelman) to New England for a 2009 third-round selection (73rd overall; Jacksonville selected Derek Cox).[source 17]}

 

TLDR: Pats gets: 2009 7th, 2010 2nd
           Jags gets: 2009 3rd

[Commander -JB-]

Ideally those are good, however that's not what happened yesterday for us...

We traded 21 to Houston for 22 basically got a free 17/6th

We traded our 4th to Jets for 16/5th 17/5th (I felt we lost this trade)

We traded our 5th to Saints for a 17/5th, this trade was essentially our 5th for their 6th round straight up.... (Next year 5th = this year 6th)

We traded our 5th this year for Jets 4th next year.

[bowhunter]

I agree it's a great way for any team with some patience. Bite the bullet in One year and turn the current 2nd rd for next years first.

Then 2017 = 2 firsts

- trade the 2nd 1st rounder for 2018 first and and this years 2nd...

Every year would have 2 firsts and 2 seconds to either get your guy or build a draft pick dynasty.

[DC9]

Ideally those are good, however that's not what happened yesterday for us...

We traded 21 to Houston for 22 basically got a free 17/6th

We traded our 4th to Jets for 16/5th 17/5th (I felt we lost this trade)

We traded our 5th to Saints for a 17/5th, this trade was essentially our 5th for their 6th round straight up.... (Next year 5th = this year 6th)

 

 

That Jets pick was a 2017 4th wasn't it?

 

Likely to be at the top of the 4th...

[daveakl]

Ideally those are good, however that's not what happened yesterday for us...

We traded 21 to Houston for 22 basically got a free 17/6th

We traded our 4th to Jets for 16/5th 17/5th (I felt we lost this trade)

We traded our 5th to Saints for a 17/5th, this trade was essentially our 5th for their 6th round straight up.... (Next year 5th = this year 6th)

 

We traded our 4th to the Saints (120 = 54pts) for their 5th (152 = 30.2) and their 5th in 2017 (equal to a 6th in 2016 or 15 pts.)

We traded our 5th to the Jets (158 = 27.4) for their 4th in 2017 (equal to a 5th in 2016 or 29.4)

[acuratl1984]

We traded our 5th this year for Jets 4th next year.

 

Well... guess i read wrong, feel better about it now then.

 

4th for 5th/16 5th/17

5th for 4th/17

 

Further more... I was super envious of the Patriot's in the 2009/10 draft. They were flipping picks for next years higher round like crazy.

 

What would have made our trade better, is if we had gotten like a 7th rounder this year. 1 pick for 2 picks etc.

[daveakl]

What would have made our trade better, is if we had gotten like a 7th rounder this year. 1 pick for 2 picks etc.

Exactly!

 

And that's what I was proposing with this trade for next year:

4th from the Jets (2017): Pick 113, value 68 points

3rd from team X in 2018: Pick 98 (value 39 points) + 5th from team x in 2017: Pick 154 (value 21.4 points)

 

Allows you to keep the # of picks in the 2017 draft while adding a 2018 pick in a higher round.  

[DogofWar1]

It's always something cool to consider, but there are so many factors it's tough to pull off. How good the draft is one year versus the next, positional strength, etc. And sometimes getting two to tango is easier said than done.

If a draft was truly so bad that we were willing to sacrifice early picks for future picks, other teams would probably feel the same. This becomes even more problematic if the consensus is the next year is full of ballers. We did very well this year, but if we tried to, for example trade a 3rd for a 2nd next year, I'm unsure we could have. But simultaneously, I like the idea of probing teams on the question.

[TSO]

I've always been envious of the Pats seemingly having 800 picks every year.

Like you said, daveakl, I think this is the start of us doing just that. Totally agree with your premise.

Coupled with the likelihood of us losing a premier FA or two next year, we should begin to join the comp pick club by 2018.

And with a GM like Scot, a stable coaching staff with Gruden at the helm, and players thus fulfilling scheme-specific roles, how awesome will it be to have numerous mid-round picks in virtually every draft?

[elkabong82]

To clear up trade confusion:

 

We traded our 4th to the Saints. We moved down 30 picks to their 5th. We also got a 5th from them for next year.

 

We traded our 2nd 5th rounder to the Jets for their 4th rounder next year.

 

Reports are aside from DL this draft class overall is a weak one. Reports are also that next year's draft class is going to be loaded with talent.

 

As for the Saints trade, there is an 8% better chance of success for a pick in the 4th than in the 5th. Scot went down 8%, but then essentially doubled his odds bot gaining another 5th rounder for next year, maybe more than doubled given it's supposed to be a stronger class. He made shrewd, forward-thinking moves. I had to reflect on this before realizing the value in this trade. Scot doesn't seem to be one to take a bad trade over a player he likes. This is why he's one of the best in the business. He makes shrewd moves.